Coherent Corp (NYSE: COHR) has quietly morphed from a “laser company” into one of Wall Street’s favorite picks-and-shovels plays for the AI datacenter boom. As of mid‑day on December 10, 2025, the stock trades around $192 per share, giving the company a market value of roughly $29 billion. Stock Titan
In the last few weeks, Coherent has:
- Reported a blowout Q1 FY 2026 on the back of AI datacenter optics demand. Coherent Inc+1
- Announced a next‑generation 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform aimed squarely at AI datacenter thermal challenges. Stock Titan
- Launched new 800G/1.6T optical ICs and 100G ZR modules for high‑speed cloud and telecom networks. Stock Titan+1
- Picked up fresh analyst upgrades and price‑target hikes, even as consensus targets now sit below the current share price. MarketBeat+2StockAnalysis+2
- Seen insiders trim small portions of their holdings after a massive rally. TipRanks+1
Here’s a deep dive into what’s happening with Coherent stock today, what the latest news actually means, and how Wall Street’s forecasts line up with the current, very punchy valuation.
Coherent Corp Today: Stock Snapshot and AI Positioning
As of the latest trade on December 10, 2025, Coherent shares change hands at about $192.27, with an intraday range between roughly $191.50 and $197.55, and volume around 1.4 million shares. Various data providers peg the company’s market cap near $29 billion, with a free float of about 156 million shares and institutional ownership above 96%. Short interest is around 5% of float, which is enough to add some spice to the price action without making this a pure short‑squeeze meme. Stock Titan+1
Performance‑wise, 2025 has been a rocket ride:
- Zacks estimates Coherent is up about 96% year‑to‑date as of December 9, massively outperforming the broader Business Services sector, which is down ~10.6% over the same period. WV News
- A Yahoo Finance total‑return snapshot shows YTD returns north of 100% as of December 10. Yahoo Finance
However you slice it, Coherent stock has roughly doubled in 2025, turning it from a niche photonics name into a frontline AI infrastructure trade.
What Coherent Actually Does (Beyond “Lasers”)
Coherent describes itself as a global photonics leader, and that’s not marketing fluff. Its portfolio spans:
- Data center and communications optics – including 800G and 1.6T optical transceivers, coherent modules, and optical circuit switches used to connect GPUs inside and between AI datacenters. Futurum+1
- Industrial and electronics lasers – for manufacturing, display equipment, medical systems, and other high‑precision applications. Coherent Inc+1
- Engineered materials – including wide‑bandgap semiconductors like silicon carbide (SiC) and specialty metals used in power electronics, AI datacenter cooling, EVs, and renewable energy. Stock Titan+1
Two marquee relationships matter a lot to the COHR story:
- NVIDIA – Coherent is collaborating with Nvidia on silicon photonics networking switches using co‑packaged optics (CPO), targeting the ultra‑high‑bandwidth fabrics needed to connect “AI factories” filled with GPUs. TradingView+1
- Apple – Coherent has a multiyear strategic agreement to supply VCSELs (a type of laser) that enable Face ID in iPhones and iPads, produced at its Sherman, Texas facility. TradingView
Coherent has also been pruning its portfolio, selling its Aerospace & Defense business for $400 million and agreeing to divest its materials processing tools division, all to sharpen its focus on datacenter, communications, and high‑value materials. Coherent Inc+2Stock Titan+2
In other words: this isn’t just “lasers for random stuff” anymore. It’s increasingly lasers, optics, and materials that make AI datacenters faster, cooler, and more power‑efficient.
Q1 FY 2026: Earnings Beat Powered by AI Datacenter Demand
Coherent’s latest quarter – Q1 FY 2026, ending September 30, 2025 – is a big reason the stock is where it is today.
From the company’s press release and independent analysis: Coherent Inc+2Futurum+2
- Revenue: $1.58 billion, up 17% year‑over‑year, and 19% on a pro‑forma basis excluding the sold Aerospace & Defense business.
- Margins:
- GAAP gross margin 36.6% (+249 bps YoY)
- Non‑GAAP gross margin 38.7% (+200 bps YoY)
- Profitability:
- Non‑GAAP operating income $309 million, with 19.5% operating margin (+340 bps YoY)
- Non‑GAAP net earnings $221 million, with non‑GAAP EPS of $1.16, up 73% vs. last year.
The growth engine is very clearly AI networking:
- Data Center & Communications revenue grew around 26% YoY, supported by broad deployment of 800G optics and early ramp of 1.6T transceivers. Futurum+1
- Futurum Research notes that Coherent saw record bookings with visibility more than a year out, suggesting demand isn’t just a one‑quarter sugar rush. Futurum
Management also highlighted some balance‑sheet housekeeping:
- Coherent paid down $400 million of debt in the quarter and refinanced existing facilities to reduce interest expense and strengthen the balance sheet. Coherent Inc+1
Guidance: More Growth, Margins Holding
For Q2 FY 2026, management guided to: Futurum+1
- Revenue of $1.56–$1.70 billion
- Non‑GAAP EPS of $1.10–$1.30
- Non‑GAAP gross margin of 38–40%
They also flagged:
- ~10% sequential growth in datacenter revenue in Q2.
- Continuing strength through FY 2026 as six‑inch indium phosphide (InP) capacity ramps and module assembly expands in Asia and Vietnam. Futurum+1
For AI infrastructure investors, this is catnip: strong growth, improving margins, and line‑of‑sight to higher capacity.
New Product News: 300mm SiC, 800G ICs and 100G ZR Modules
The story isn’t just about demand; it’s about Coherent’s roadmap lining up with where data center and network architectures are heading.
300mm Silicon Carbide for AI Datacenter Thermal Management
On December 3, 2025, Coherent announced a next‑generation 300mm SiC platform aimed explicitly at AI datacenters’ growing thermal and power‑efficiency needs. Stock Titan
Key points:
- Builds on Coherent’s experience in 200mm SiC substrates, scaling up to 300mm to fit next‑gen power and cooling designs.
- Emphasizes low resistivity, low defect density, and high homogeneity, which translate into better energy efficiency and thermal stability. Stock Titan
- Initially focused on datacenter thermal management, but also targeted at AR/VR waveguides and power electronics for EVs and renewable systems, where more devices per wafer lower cost per chip. Stock Titan
The market liked it: StockTitan’s tracking shows Coherent shares gained about 3.7% on the day of the SiC announcement, adding roughly $1 billion in market cap. Stock Titan
800G/1.6T Optical Transceiver IC Family
In early December, Coherent also unveiled a new family of integrated circuits for 800G and 1.6T optical modules: Stock Titan
- CHR2075 – a four‑channel driver for 800G/1.6T pluggable and co‑packaged modules.
- CHR1094 (transimpedance amplifier) and CHR2094 (modulator driver) – a chipset targeting 400G ZR/ZR+ coherent links.
These ICs are engineered for:
- Lower power consumption
- Integrated high‑resolution monitoring (10‑bit ADC)
- High‑speed cloud, AI, and telecom network applications
Samples are available now, with production of CHR1094 and CHR2094 expected in November 2025 and CHR2075 in December 2025, placing them right in the path of the next wave of AI datacenter upgrades. Stock Titan
First 100G ZR QSFP28 for 10x Capacity on Legacy Fiber
Coherent also announced what it calls the industry’s first 100G ZR QSFP28 digital coherent optics module: Stock Titan
- Uses dual independently tunable lasers in a QSFP‑DCO form factor to support bi‑directional 100G over a single fiber, increasing effective capacity by up to 10x on existing 10 Gb/s infrastructure. Stock Titan
- Sampling now, with general availability expected in Q4 2025.
For operators, that’s a way to:
- Extend the life of legacy network assets
- Boost capacity dramatically without ripping out old fiber
- Lower power and cost per bit while moving toward IP‑over‑DWDM architectures Stock Titan
Taken together, the SiC platform plus new optical ICs and modules strengthen the case that Coherent is not just surfing AI demand – it’s actively shaping the hardware roadmap for AI data centers and access networks.
How Analysts See COHR: Strong Growth, Awkward Targets
Wall Street’s take on Coherent right now is… complicated.
Zacks: “Bull of the Day” and Strong Estimate Revisions
Zacks Investment Research recently named Coherent its “Bull of the Day”, highlighting: TradingView+1
- Coherent as a $29B global laser and photonics leader whose revenues are on track to nearly double from about $3.3B (trailing 12‑month) in mid‑2022 to a projected ~$6.7B in the fiscal year ending June 2026.
- A roughly 290% share price gain over that period.
- Expectations for ~42% EPS growth this fiscal year, with consensus EPS lifted almost 10% after the Q1 beat.
Separately, Zacks classifies the stock as a Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and notes that the full‑year earnings estimate has been revised 12.9% higher over the past quarter. WV News
Raymond James: Strong Buy, Target Raised to $210
An Insider Monkey write‑up on December 9 highlighted that Raymond James raised its price target from $180 to $210 on December 5 while maintaining a “Strong Buy” rating. Insider Monkey
The firm argues that:
- Coherent is a key enabler across multiple AI architectures within and between AI datacenters, and largely agnostic to who wins the large‑language‑model wars.
- Its AI exposure remains under‑appreciated, and industrial segments appear to have bottomed, setting up a recovery. Insider Monkey
MarketBeat vs. StockAnalysis: Bullish Ratings, Targets Below Spot
Two widely used aggregators show slightly different, but consistent, pictures:
- MarketBeat shows: MarketBeat
- 19 analysts covering COHR
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Breakdown: 14 Buy / 5 Hold / 0 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target: $154.42, with a range from $95 to $215
- That average implies ~20% downside from a current price around $194 in their snapshot.
- StockAnalysis shows: StockAnalysis+1
- 13 analysts
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- Average target: $144.54, with a low of $85 and a high of $220
- That implies about –25% downside from their real‑time price (~$194).
The tension is obvious:
- Ratings: overwhelmingly positive (“Buy” to “Strong Buy”)
- Targets: mostly below where the stock trades today
In practice, this often means analysts like the business but think the share price has outrun their models – at least in the near term.
Other Forecasts and Quant Views
- StockAnalysis’ consensus calls for revenue to rise from $5.81B to $6.82B this year (+17.4%) and to $7.74B next year (+13.5%). Consensus EPS jumps from –$0.52 to $5.18 this year, then to $6.47 next year, a further ~25% increase. StockAnalysis
- At today’s price, that works out to a forward P/E of roughly 37× this year’s earnings and ~30× next year’s, based on those consensus EPS figures. StockAnalysis+1
- TipRanks’ AI “Spark” analyst currently labels COHR Neutral, citing strong momentum and AI optics exposure but warning about high valuation and the need for continued improvement in profitability and cash flow. It also shows a YTD price gain of 63% at the time of that write‑up. TipRanks
Some Seeking Alpha contributors have pointed out that Coherent now trades at valuation multiples comparable to or even richer than Nvidia on certain forward metrics and argue that, after a roughly 100% move in five months, the risk‑reward looks more balanced. Seeking Alpha+1
So the consensus vibe: great business, very strong AI tailwinds, but a lot of good news is already in the price.
Insider Selling and Ownership Structure
Insider activity recently ticked higher – not in a panic way, but enough that investors have noticed.
From recent filings and news summaries: Stock Titan+3TipRanks+3Longbridge SG+3
- Director Howard Xia sold:
- 1,000 shares on December 1 for about $158,000, according to TipRanks.
- Longbridge reports 2,000 shares sold on December 2 at prices of $168 and $172, totaling around $340,000, leaving him with roughly 50,019 shares.
- SVP of Finance Ilaria Mocciaro sold 1,377 shares on December 1 at about $162.71, for roughly $224,000, and now directly holds 24,033 shares.
For context:
- Coherent’s float is about 156 million shares.
- Insider ownership is roughly 1.2%, while institutions own more than 96% of the stock.
- Short interest is around 5.2% of float. Stock Titan+1
These are modest trims relative to total holdings and the company’s size. They do, however, fit the narrative of insiders taking some chips off the table after a major run‑up.
TipRanks also mentions a Waiver Agreement with Bain Capital, where Bain waived its right to receive dividends on Series B preferred stock, a move framed as aligning incentives with common shareholders and supporting Coherent’s strategic priorities. TipRanks
Valuation Check: Is COHR Priced for Perfection?
Between the AI excitement, product momentum, and earnings beat, Coherent’s stock has been re‑rated aggressively.
Using consensus numbers from StockAnalysis: StockAnalysis+1
- This fiscal year (FY 2026):
- EPS forecast: $5.18
- At ~$192, that’s ~37× forward earnings
- Next fiscal year (FY 2027):
- EPS forecast: $6.47
- At ~$192, that’s ~30× forward earnings
Revenue is projected to grow at a high‑teens rate in FY 2026 and low‑teens in FY 2027, with double‑digit EPS growth on top of that as margins expand. StockAnalysis+2StockAnalysis+2
That combination – 30–40× earnings plus teens growth – is not absurd for a perceived core AI infrastructure name, but it leaves less room for error:
- If AI datacenter capex keeps compounding and Coherent executes on its 6‑inch InP, 300mm SiC and optical roadmap, the current valuation can be justified. Stock Titan+4Futurum+4Futurum+4
- If AI spending growth slows, or competition pressures pricing, or yield/capacity ramps slip, the multiple could compress quickly.
The fact that most consensus price targets sit below the current stock price is a pretty clear signal that, in analysts’ models, the easy part of the re‑rating may already be done. MarketBeat+2StockAnalysis+2
Macro & Sentiment: Riding the AI Wave, For Better and Worse
Coherent’s stock has been tightly coupled to broader AI sentiment.
On November 18, a Finviz market recap noted that Coherent fell about 2.2% in a single session as concerns over stretched AI valuations dragged down Nvidia and other tech names, illustrating that COHR trades as part of the “AI complex,” not in isolation. Finviz
This cuts both ways:
- Sector‑wide AI optimism, big hyperscaler capex announcements, and Nvidia’s bullish comments help pull COHR higher.
- AI valuation scares, macro worries about rates, or a pause in GPU build‑outs can knock the stock back quickly, even if Coherent’s individual execution remains solid.
Short interest around 5% and very high institutional ownership amplify these swings. Stock Titan+2Stock Titan+2
Key Upside Drivers From Here
For investors watching Coherent into 2026, the bull case rests on a few concrete themes:
- AI Datacenter Optics Remain Supply‑Constrained
Futurum’s analysis highlights that demand for 800G and emerging 1.6T transceivers plus coherent ZR/ZR+ modules remains intense, with bookings stretching more than a year out and Q2 datacenter revenue guided to grow sequentially. Futurum+1 - Six‑Inch InP and 300mm SiC Unlock Capacity and Margins
- Six‑inch InP lines in Texas and Sweden are expected to roughly double internal InP laser capacity, improving yields and lowering costs as they mature. Futurum+1
- The 300mm SiC platform targets the heat and power issues that AI datacenters are increasingly running into, potentially unlocking a new, high‑value materials revenue stream. Stock Titan
- Broader AI Infrastructure Optionality
Coherent isn’t just selling pluggable optics; it’s:- Shipping optical circuit switches (OCS) to multiple customers (including large 64×64 and 320×320 systems).
- Sampling co‑packaged / near‑packaged optics components for CPO/NPO architectures.
- Expanding into access and metro with 100G ZR QSFP‑DCO modules for telcos and cable operators. Futurum+2Futurum+2
- Portfolio Simplification and Deleveraging
Asset sales and debt paydown improve returns on capital and give Coherent more flexibility to invest in high‑growth areas like AI optics and SiC, while reducing the drag from non‑core businesses. Coherent Inc+2Stock Titan+2
If these levers all fire together, the current valuation starts to look more like a premium for durable growth rather than pure hype.
Key Risks and Bear Arguments
There’s no free lunch in photonics land. The more skeptical takes focus on:
- Valuation Risk – As noted in multiple analyses, including Seeking Alpha commentary and TipRanks’ AI model, COHR is now trading at “AI leader” multiples, with consensus price targets below the current stock price. TipRanks+3MarketBeat+3StockAnalysis+3
- Cyclical Capex Risk – Coherent is ultimately tied to hyperscaler and carrier capex cycles. A slowdown in AI buildouts or a shift in network architectures could hit orders hard. Futurum+2Futurum+2
- Execution Risk on New Nodes – Scaling six‑inch InP and 300mm SiC is technically demanding. Yield issues or delays would pressure margins exactly when investors are expecting them to expand. Futurum+2Futurum+2
- Customer Concentration – Big AI and cloud customers (plus Apple on the VCSEL side) likely account for a significant share of revenue, increasing exposure to a few powerful buyers. TradingView+1
- Insider and Preferred‑Holder Dynamics – Insider selling so far looks modest, but it does show some profit‑taking. Preferred‑equity structures (like the Bain Capital Series B) add complexity to the capital structure that investors have to keep an eye on, even with the recent waiver agreement on dividends. TipRanks+2Longbridge SG+2
Takeaways for Investors Watching Coherent Stock
As of December 10, 2025, Coherent sits at the intersection of several powerful trends:
- AI datacenter networking, where demand for ultra‑high‑speed optics and advanced switching is still ramping. Futurum+1
- Wide‑bandgap materials and thermal management, where 300mm SiC could become a key enabler of AI power and cooling infrastructure. Stock Titan
- Industrial, medical and electronics lasers, which provide diversification and long‑term applications beyond today’s AI race. Coherent Inc+1
On the numbers, Coherent combines:
- Rapidly improving earnings and margins
- A high‑teens revenue growth profile
- A forward valuation in the 30–40× earnings range
- Price levels that already sit above most published 12‑month targets StockAnalysis+2MarketBeat+2
For growth‑oriented investors, Coherent is essentially a levered bet on AI infrastructure, with strong fundamental momentum and a deep technology stack. For valuation‑sensitive investors, it’s increasingly priced for near‑flawless execution.
Either way, COHR has moved firmly into the category of “must‑watch AI infrastructure stock” rather than obscure photonics name. Future quarters will test whether the company can keep turning photons, wafers, and ASICs into the kind of earnings growth that justifies today’s very bright spotlight.
