Coherent Corp. stock (NYSE: COHR) heads into the Monday, Dec. 15, 2025 session after a sharp, high-volume selloff that put the spotlight on a single theme investors will likely keep trading around: share supply.
On the last trading day before Monday’s open, COHR closed at $178.34, down 10.16% on the day, after swinging between roughly $176.30 and $198.60. Volume was elevated at about 7.35 million shares, underscoring how quickly sentiment can flip in this high-beta photonics name.
Below is what’s driving the near-term tape, what the latest filings say about potential additional stock hitting the market, and the fundamentals—AI datacenter optics and silicon carbide—that keep the longer-term bull case in play.
The biggest near-term catalyst is the Bain share overhang and a Dec. 15 mandatory conversion
The key reason traders are bracing for more volatility into Monday is laid out plainly in a new SEC filing from a Bain Capital affiliate.
In an amended Schedule 13D, BCPE Watson (DE) BML, LP reported that on Dec. 10, 2025, it converted Series B-2 convertible preferred stock into 5,000,000 common shares and sold those 5,000,000 shares in a Rule 144 block trade at $189.55 per share, for gross proceeds of about $947.75 million. SEC
The filing also states the affiliate still holds 70,703 shares of Series B-2 preferred, convertible into 9,775,846 common shares—and, critically for Monday, notes that the mandatory conversion of the remaining Series B-2 preferred held by the reporting person is effective Dec. 15, 2025. SEC
Why that matters for Monday’s open
A conversion itself doesn’t automatically mean those new shares will be sold immediately. But in practice, mandatory conversions can increase the effective tradable float and renew “overhang” concerns, particularly when they follow a major block sale like the one priced at $189.55. SEC
That supply/demand setup is a big part of why COHR can gap and whip around—even when the long-term product story is strong.
This is not the first large Bain-related sell-down in recent weeks
The Dec. 10 block trade followed another major Bain-related transaction disclosed earlier in November.
A Form 4 filed by Bain-related reporting persons shows that on Nov. 7, 2025, they reported a sale of 7,500,000 COHR shares at $143.37, after converting preferred stock into common. SEC
The same Form 4 footnotes also provide helpful context about the preferred stock mechanics: dividends accrued at 5% per annum on stated value, and the preferred shares have an initial conversion price of $85.00, subject to adjustments. The filing further notes conditions under which the issuer may elect to convert preferred into common after the third anniversary if stock-price thresholds are met. SEC
Taken together, these disclosures help explain why investors have been highly sensitive to any fresh indication that more stock could come to market.
Coherent and Bain also signed a dividend waiver agreement
Another related headline from late November is a company-filed 8-K describing a waiver agreement with Bain Capital.
On Nov. 20, 2025, Coherent reported it entered into a Waiver Agreement with Bain Capital under which the holder irrevocably waived rights to receive dividends on Coherent’s Series B-1 and Series B-2 convertible preferred stock on or after the date of the agreement. SEC
Coherent characterized the agreement as improving alignment with common shareholders, and included supportive commentary attributed to Bain’s Steve Pagliuca in the filing. SEC
For investors, the practical takeaway is that the preferred structure that helped finance earlier strategic moves continues to unwind into common equity—an ongoing process that can influence trading dynamics even when operations are improving.
The bull case is still anchored in AI datacenters and photonics demand
Supply overhang explains the near-term turbulence, but it doesn’t erase why COHR became a momentum favorite in the first place.
Coherent sells lasers, optical components and transceivers, and engineered materials into communications and industrial markets. In its annual report, the company described itself as a vertically integrated manufacturer across lasers, transceivers, optical/optoelectronic modules and systems, and engineered materials. Coherent Inc
Importantly, Coherent also explained a reporting change that mirrors where investors see the growth: in fiscal 2025 it reported three segments (Networking, Materials, Lasers), but effective July 1, 2025 (fiscal 2026) it realigned into two segments: Datacenter and Communications, and Industrial. Coherent Inc
That realignment is consistent with the market’s core question: how much of Coherent’s future is leveraged to AI-driven datacenter buildouts and optical interconnect upgrades?
A fresh product headline: Coherent’s 300mm silicon carbide milestone for AI datacenters
Just before the block-sale headlines hit, Coherent put out a press release that energized the “AI infrastructure” narrative.
On Dec. 3, 2025, Coherent announced a milestone in its next-generation 300mm silicon carbide (SiC) platform, positioning it to address growing thermal-efficiency demands in AI datacenter infrastructure. The company said the platform’s primary focus is datacenter thermal management, while also pointing to AR/VR and power electronics as additional targets. Coherent Inc
Market chatter quickly connected that announcement to COHR’s share move in early December; one market recap noted the stock was up sharply following the 300mm SiC news. Yahoo Finance
Why 300mm SiC matters
In simple terms: moving to larger wafer formats can be a pathway to better economics per device and improved scalability—two points that matter if silicon carbide demand expands beyond EV power electronics into datacenter power and cooling-related applications. Coherent explicitly framed the milestone around rising datacenter thermal loads and next-generation infrastructure needs. Coherent Inc
The latest fundamentals: Q1 fiscal 2026 results show growth and margin improvement
Coherent’s most recent quarterly results (fiscal Q1 2026, ended Sept. 30, 2025) provide the operating backdrop for all of this.
In its Q1 earnings release, Coherent reported:
- Revenue of $1.58 billion
- GAAP gross margin of 36.6% and non-GAAP gross margin of 38.7%
- GAAP EPS of $1.19 and non-GAAP EPS of $1.16
The company also linked demand strength to AI-related datacenters and communications in management commentary. Coherent Inc
The release also included a notable balance-sheet comment from the CFO: during the quarter, Coherent said it paid down $400 million of debt and refinanced other debt, aiming to reduce interest expense and strengthen the balance sheet. Coherent Inc
Segment trends show where growth is concentrating
One of the cleanest ways to track the “AI datacenter” thesis is segment revenue.
In the same earnings release, Coherent reported segment revenue (three months ended Sept. 30, 2025):
- Datacenter and Communications: $1,090.0 million (vs. $863.6 million a year earlier)
- Industrial: $491.4 million (vs. $484.5 million a year earlier)
- Total: $1,581.4 million Coherent Inc
That split helps explain why the stock can trade like an AI hardware proxy even though Coherent has meaningful exposure to cyclical industrial end markets.
Guidance: what the company said to expect next
For the next quarter (fiscal Q2 2026), Coherent guided to:
- Revenue of $1.56 billion to $1.70 billion
- Non-GAAP gross margin 38% to 40%
- Non-GAAP EPS $1.10 to $1.30
- Non-GAAP operating expenses $300 million to $320 million
- Non-GAAP tax rate 18% to 20% Coherent Inc
For traders heading into Monday, this guidance matters because it frames expectations while the stock price is being tugged by secondary-sale mechanics and conversion-related share supply.
What Wall Street is saying: price targets and expectations
Analyst views remain mixed enough to keep COHR volatile.
MarketWatch’s analyst snapshot has shown Coherent with an average recommendation of “Overweight” and an average price target around $177.41 (based on a broad analyst set). MarketWatch
With COHR closing at $178.34 on Friday, that puts the stock roughly in the neighborhood of that cited average target—one reason day-to-day trading may be driven less by “valuation discovery” and more by catalysts like block trades, conversions, and AI infrastructure headlines. MarketWatch
A key strategic tie-in: Nvidia’s optical networking push
Another reason COHR is often mentioned alongside AI infrastructure winners is optical networking.
Nvidia has been pushing optical connectivity deeper into datacenter architectures, including through announcements related to photonics-based networking. In March 2025, Nvidia’s newsroom announcement around its Spectrum-X Photonics platform listed multiple ecosystem collaborators, including Coherent. NVIDIA Investor Relations
The investment implication isn’t that any single partnership guarantees revenue, but that Coherent is positioned in a supply chain investors increasingly associate with next-gen AI datacenter scaling challenges: bandwidth, power, and thermal constraints. NVIDIA Investor Relations
What to watch right at Monday’s open
If you’re following COHR into the Dec. 15 open, these are the practical signposts that may set the tone:
1) Volatility and liquidity signals
Friday’s range—roughly $176 to $199—shows how quickly COHR can reprice when large sellers and momentum traders collide.
2) Any follow-through around the Dec. 15 mandatory conversion
The SEC filing explicitly flags Dec. 15, 2025 as the effective date for the mandatory conversion of remaining Series B-2 preferred shares held by the Bain affiliate, convertible into 9,775,846 common shares. SEC
Even without an immediate sale, investors may trade the perceived risk of additional distribution, especially given the Dec. 10 block sale at $189.55. SEC
3) Broader “AI hardware” sentiment
COHR has increasingly traded in sympathy with AI infrastructure names (optics, networking, semiconductor equipment), so sector-wide risk-on or risk-off flows can amplify moves that began with company-specific filings. Coherent Inc
Key risks to keep in mind
Before the bell, it’s worth balancing the bullish AI narrative with the risks that can surprise investors:
- Share supply and sponsor exits: As the preferred-to-common unwind continues, block trades and conversions can pressure the stock independently of operating performance. SEC
- Execution and margin sensitivity: Even with improving results, photonics and components markets can be competitive and cyclical, and guidance becomes the battleground. Coherent Inc
- Segment concentration: Datacenter and Communications is clearly driving growth; any cooling in that demand can hit expectations quickly. Coherent Inc
- Capital intensity in new platforms: Milestones like 300mm SiC can be strategically important, but scaling “in high volumes” typically takes time and sustained investment. Coherent Inc
Bottom line for COHR stock before Dec. 15, 2025
Coherent enters Monday with two powerful forces pushing in opposite directions:
- A fundamental narrative tied to AI datacenters (optical connectivity, thermal management materials, and improving financial performance) Coherent Inc
- A trading/flow narrative tied to large-holder conversions and block sales—especially with a mandatory conversion effective Dec. 15 SEC
That combination is often the recipe for outsized premarket and early-session moves. For investors, Monday’s question is less “is the AI thesis real?” and more “how much near-term supply does the market still need to digest, and at what price?”
