Updated: December 4, 2025. This article is for information only and is not financial advice.
Coinbase stock price today: still volatile, but off the lows
Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) is trading just under $275 per share on Thursday afternoon, leaving the stock well below its 2025 peak above $440 but still far above its 52‑week low around $143. [1]
Analytics site TickerNerd estimates that COIN is: [2]
- ~6% higher year to date,
- about 40% below its 52‑week high of $444.65, and
- roughly 85% above its 52‑week low near $142.58.
That profile captures what COIN is today: a high‑beta proxy on the crypto cycle that can move dramatically in both directions.
Over just the last few days:
- On December 1, COIN fell more than 6% as Bitcoin slid from over $91,000 to the mid‑$80,000s and crypto‑linked stocks sold off across the board. [3]
- On December 2, those losses partly reversed as Bitcoin rebounded back toward $91,000 and crypto names bounced. [4]
- On December 3, COIN traded in the mid‑$270s, up around 4–5% intraday as Bitcoin jumped back above $92,000 and flows into crypto ETFs stabilized. TechStock²
This week’s action came on the heels of a $200 billion wipe‑out in some of the riskiest crypto tokens, according to Bloomberg, highlighting how quickly speculative sentiment can swing in this asset class. [5]
The big 2025 story: SEC drops its case and regulatory clouds thin
One of the most important drivers of Coinbase’s re‑rating in 2025 has been regulatory relief in the United States.
In February, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it had filed a joint stipulation with Coinbase to dismiss its civil enforcement action against the company, while simultaneously launching a new “Crypto Task Force” to craft a more comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. [6]
Reuters reported that Coinbase described the move as the end of a “years‑long legal battle” that once looked existential for both the exchange and the broader U.S. crypto industry. [7] A legal analysis from law firm Morrison & Foerster notes that the SEC’s about‑face on Coinbase, Binance and other platforms signals a strategic pivot away from regulation‑by‑enforcement toward formal rulemaking in crypto. [8]
For COIN shareholders, the outcome doesn’t eliminate regulatory risk, but it does:
- remove the immediate threat of a potentially business‑crushing court ruling,
- give Coinbase more room to expand products like staking and derivatives under clearer rules, and
- support the bullish narrative that the U.S. is moving toward stable, institutional‑grade crypto regulation rather than hostility.
Q3 2025: revenue surge, fat margins and a bigger buyback
Fundamentally, 2025 has been Coinbase’s strongest year since the 2021 bull market, and Q3 2025 was a key inflection point.
Headline numbers
According to Coinbase’s Q3 shareholder letter, Nasdaq and Zacks Equity Research: [9]
- Total revenue came in around $1.87–1.90 billion, up about 55% year over year.
- Net operating EPS was roughly $1.44, beating consensus by about 40% and more than doubling from the prior year.
- Transaction revenue reached roughly $1.0 billion, up about 37% quarter over quarter as trading activity accelerated.
- Subscription and services revenue (staking, stablecoins, custodial and other fees) rose more than 34% year over year to about $747 million.
- Total trading volume hit $295 billion, up 24% quarter over quarter and nearly 60% year over year.
- Adjusted EBITDA approached $800 million, up nearly 80% from a year earlier.
Zacks also notes that Coinbase exited the quarter with $8.7 billion in cash and cash equivalents, versus around $5.9 billion in long‑term debt, and that the board doubled the company’s share‑repurchase authorization from $1 billion to $2 billion in October. [10]
MarketBeat’s institutional recap adds that Q3 revenue was up 55.1% year over year, net margin was an eye‑catching ~42%, and return on equity about 15.7%. [11]
How Coinbase is making its money now
The mix of revenue also matters:
- Trading fees are still the core driver, but the company is pushing harder into derivatives and institutional flows. Coinbase’s acquisition of crypto‑derivatives venue Deribit closed in mid‑August and contributed about $52 million of revenue in Q3, helping drive institutional transaction revenue up more than 120% quarter over quarter. [12]
- Stablecoin and interest income play a growing role. The Q3 letter shows stablecoin revenue around $355 million, with customers holding about $15 billion of USDC on Coinbase’s platform, making it a major contributor to USDC’s record market cap. [13]
- Subscription & services—including staking, custodial fees, Coinbase One subscriptions and institutional financing—have become a second earnings engine that’s less directly tied to daily trading volume.
For Q4 2025, Coinbase guided to subscription and services revenue of $710–$790 million, reflecting continued growth in USDC and Coinbase One subs, albeit with some headwind from expected U.S. interest‑rate cuts. [14]
Overall, the 2025 financials show a company that retains strong operating leverage to bull markets, but is also building recurring, service‑based income streams that may help cushion the next downturn.
December 2025 company news: from “instant unstaking” to big‑bank pilots
Alongside macro noise, several Coinbase‑specific headlines have hit the tape in the last few weeks:
1. Bullish Bernstein note and “instant unstaking”
On December 2, IndexBox reported that Coinbase stock rose roughly 3–4% intraday after a bullish note from brokerage Bernstein and the launch of a new “instant unstaking” feature. [15]
Key points from that report:
- Bernstein sees roughly 90% upside in COIN and maintains a Street‑high $510 price target. [16]
- Coinbase’s new feature lets users unstake certain crypto assets immediately for a 1% fee, bypassing traditional lock‑up periods—a move aimed at making staking more user‑friendly while adding a new fee stream. [17]
2. Big‑bank pilots and ETF flows
A December 3 analysis from TechStock² highlighted several drivers behind COIN’s latest rebound: TechStock²
- CEO Brian Armstrong recently said some of the largest global banks are running pilots with Coinbase around stablecoins, custody and trading, underscoring the institutionalization of digital assets.
- The day’s rally was tied to Bitcoin surging back above $92,000, helped by news that major managers such as Vanguard are allowing clients access to Bitcoin ETFs, boosting perceived institutional demand.
- ARK Invest, run by Cathie Wood, was flagged as having recently purchased more than 28,000 Coinbase shares for one of its ETFs, signaling continued high‑profile institutional interest.
3. Investor conferences and education push
Coinbase has also been active on the investor‑relations and policy front:
- The company announced that CFO Alesia Haas will appear at the Goldman Sachs 2025 Financial Services Conference on December 9 in a fireside chat, with a live webcast available via the investor relations site. [18]
- Separate press releases note that Coinbase will attend the 53rd Annual Nasdaq London Investor Conference and has partnered with the National Cryptocurrency Association and Operation HOPE on a new crypto‑literacy initiative aimed at underserved communities. [19]
These efforts reinforce Coinbase’s strategy: position itself simultaneously as Wall Street‑friendly infrastructure and as a consumer‑facing on‑ramp to the crypto economy.
Institutional and insider activity: mixed, but broadly supportive
A new filing‑based report from MarketBeat on December 4 shows that hedge fund Edgestream Partners L.P. cut its Coinbase stake by about 56% in Q2, selling roughly 16,000 shares. But other institutions—including Bessemer Group, Kera Capital and New York Life Investment Management—were reported to have significantly increased their positions over the same period. [20]
Overall, MarketBeat estimates that around 69% of COIN’s float is held by institutional investors, while corporate insiders still own about 16–17% of the company. [21]
Insider‑trading disclosures show substantial selling in recent months—COO Emilie Choi and co‑founder Fred Ehrsam both unloaded sizeable blocks during the autumn rally—typical for a high‑growth tech stock where early holders diversify after big runs. [22]
How Wall Street values Coinbase going into 2026
Consensus price targets: around 40–50% upside, on paper
Across several analyst‑tracking platforms, the 12‑month price targets for COIN cluster in a fairly tight band:
- TipRanks reports an average target of $396.30, implying about 50% upside from a recent price near $263, with a range of $266–$510 and a “Moderate Buy” consensus (15 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell). [23]
- StockAnalysis shows a similar average of $389.47 based on 26 analysts, with a low of $259 and high of $510, and a consensus rating of “Buy.” [24]
- ValueInvesting.io pegs the average 12‑month target at $392.34 (range $228.58–$535.50), calling the consensus simply “BUY.” [25]
- TickerNerd aggregates 48 Wall Street analysts and finds a median target of $400, with a low of $205 and high again at $510, describing the overall stance as bullish. [26]
The message: most equity analysts expect COIN to rise 40–50% over the next year, though they disagree sharply about how bumpy the path will be.
Zacks, notably, is more cautious—despite applauding the Q3 beat, it assigns Coinbase a Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting the stock may perform roughly in line with the broader market in the near term. [27]
MarketBeat’s survey of recent notes, including upgrades and downgrades from Argus, Goldman Sachs, BTIG, JPMorgan and others, also lands on an overall “Moderate Buy” rating with an average target near $398. [28]
Earnings and growth expectations
ValueInvesting.io’s model of consensus forecasts suggests: [29]
- 2025 revenue around $7.6 billion, up roughly 15% from 2024;
- 2026 revenue near $8.8 billion, implying another 16% growth;
- EPS, however, are expected to decline from about $10.04 in 2024 to $8.27 this year and $6.97 in 2026, reflecting normalization after a huge post‑winter rebound and rising expenses (including acquisitions like Deribit and Echo).
So while analysts are broadly bullish on top‑line growth, many are modelling earnings compression as the cycle matures and Coinbase spends aggressively to dominate institutional and derivatives markets.
Technical and quantitative models: more cautious than Wall Street
Not everyone is convinced COIN is a simple buy‑and‑forget story.
CoinCodex, which uses a blend of technical indicators to forecast prices, estimates that: [30]
- COIN’s current price is about $275–276,
- the stock could trade roughly flat into early January, with a short‑term target near $275.07, and
- over the next year, its model actually projects ~34% downside, with a hypothetical 2030 scenario far below today’s price.
The site notes that COIN has seen very high volatility (around 12% over 30 days), only 12 “green” days out of the last 30, and is currently trading below key 50‑ and 200‑day moving averages—a combination that typically leads many technicians to label the stock high‑risk and trend‑negative in the medium term. [31]
TechStock² also flags that short‑term technical services like StockInvest rate COIN as “high risk”, with daily swings above 3–4% common and significant sensitivity to Bitcoin’s direction. TechStock²+1
The bull case for Coinbase stock
Putting together the fundamentals, regulation and sentiment, the bullish thesis for COIN into 2026 looks roughly like this:
- Regulatory overhang has eased.
The SEC’s decision to dismiss its lawsuit, create a dedicated Crypto Task Force and move toward clearer rules reduces existential U.S. regulatory risk and may encourage more institutional adoption. [32] - Multi‑engine business model.
Coinbase is no longer just a retail spot exchange. It now earns from:- consumer and institutional trading fees,
- crypto derivatives via Deribit,
- stablecoin float and interest,
- staking and blockchain rewards, and
- subscriptions (Coinbase One) and custody. [33]
- Strong profitability in upcycles.
Q3 2025’s ~42% net margin and nearly $800 million in adjusted EBITDA illustrate the company’s operating leverage when volumes and prices are favorable. [34] - Wall Street still sees upside.
With most analyst aggregators pointing to 40–50% upside over 12 months and only a handful of outright Sell ratings, the Street largely views COIN as undervalued relative to its earnings power and ecosystem position. [35] - Institutional adoption tailwinds.
Big‑bank pilots around stablecoins and custody, plus sustained ETF flows, could make Coinbase a critical bridge between traditional finance and on‑chain markets, deepening its moat. TechStock²+1 - Share buybacks.
Doubling the buyback authorization to $2 billion gives management flexibility to support the stock in future sell‑offs and signals confidence in long‑term value creation. [36]
For aggressive investors who believe crypto will keep integrating into mainstream finance, Coinbase is often viewed as a leveraged way to express that view while owning an operating business rather than tokens.
The bear case: cyclical, expensive and still at the mercy of crypto winters
The bearish or cautious perspective emphasizes that Coinbase remains deeply cyclical and highly speculative:
- Extreme sensitivity to crypto drawdowns.
TechStock² cites analysis from Trefis showing that during the 2021–2022 “inflation shock,” Coinbase stock fell about 90% peak‑to‑trough while the S&P 500 dropped about 25%, and warns that deep crypto winters can still “crush” COIN far more than Bitcoin itself. TechStock² - Valuation not obviously cheap.
MarketBeat’s data show COIN trading at roughly 24× trailing earnings and a beta near 3.7, a multiple some investors view as rich for a business tied to such volatile volumes and still‑evolving regulation. [37] - Earnings expected to fall even as revenue rises.
Consensus models foresee mid‑teens revenue growth but double‑digit EPS declines into 2026 as trading normalizes and costs for acquisitions, technology and compliance rise. [38] - Algorithmic and technical models flag downside.
CoinCodex’s one‑year algorithmic forecast suggests material downside from current levels, and multiple technical services classify COIN as a high‑risk, trend‑negative stock in the medium term. [39] - Competition and fee pressure.
While not captured fully in today’s headlines, Coinbase faces ongoing competition from both centralized exchanges and decentralized protocols, which historically exert fee pressure during quiet periods. - Insider selling and hedge‑fund trims.
The combination of large insider sales and moves like Edgestream’s 56% position cut show that some sophisticated holders are taking money off the table after this cycle’s run‑up. [40]
From this angle, COIN can look like a momentum‑driven, late‑cycle play where much of the good news—SEC truce, ETF flows, booming derivatives—might already be reflected in the price, leaving investors exposed if crypto enthusiasm fades.
Key catalysts to watch in late 2025 and 2026
Whether you’re bullish or cautious, several upcoming events and trends are likely to shape Coinbase’s trajectory from here:
- Macro and Bitcoin’s path
COIN still trades largely as a high‑beta function of Bitcoin and broader crypto sentiment. Another sharp drawdown—like the recent $200 billion “casino token” crash—could quickly erase recent gains. [41] - Fed policy and interest rates
Subscription and services revenue has benefited from high U.S. interest rates via stablecoin and custodial yields. Coinbase itself has acknowledged that expected rate cuts could pressure this component in 2026. [42] - SEC rulemaking and global regulation
The new SEC Crypto Task Force, along with evolving rules in Europe and Asia, will help determine which products Coinbase can offer (especially derivatives and staking) and on what terms. [43] - Execution on derivatives and institutional strategy
The Deribit and Echo deals, plus big‑bank pilots, will need to translate into sustained institutional revenue, not just a one‑quarter bump. Watch for updates on institutional trading growth and Prime client adoption in 2026 earnings calls. [44] - Capital‑allocation decisions
How aggressively Coinbase uses its $2 billion buyback, and whether it continues to prioritize acquisitions versus organic investment, will influence per‑share value creation in a choppy market. [45]
Bottom line: who might COIN make sense for?
As of December 4, 2025, Coinbase stock sits at the intersection of improving fundamentals, easing regulation and still‑ferocious volatility.
- If you believe crypto adoption will keep moving into the mainstream, that the SEC’s new stance marks a durable truce, and that Coinbase can cement itself as the default gateway between Wall Street and Web3, it’s easy to see why many analysts model substantial upside.
- If you’re wary of sharp crypto drawdowns, high valuation multiples, and the possibility that 2025’s boom is nearer the top of a cycle than the middle, COIN may look more like a trading vehicle than a core long‑term holding.
Either way, this is a stock that demands a high risk tolerance and a long‑term view. For most investors, it’s best thought of as a speculative satellite position—if it fits at all—rather than the foundation of a diversified portfolio.
Before making any decision, consider:
- your time horizon,
- how you would react to 50%+ drawdowns, which are historically common in this name, and
- whether your thesis is about Coinbase’s business specifically or simply about crypto prices.
And as always, do your own research and, if needed, consult a qualified financial advisor. This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell Coinbase or any other security.
References
1. coincodex.com, 2. tickernerd.com, 3. www.investopedia.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.bloomberg.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.mofo.com, 9. investor.coinbase.com, 10. www.nasdaq.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. investor.coinbase.com, 13. investor.coinbase.com, 14. www.nasdaq.com, 15. www.indexbox.io, 16. tickernerd.com, 17. www.indexbox.io, 18. www.stocktitan.net, 19. www.stocktitan.net, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. valueinvesting.io, 26. tickernerd.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. valueinvesting.io, 30. coincodex.com, 31. coincodex.com, 32. www.sec.gov, 33. investor.coinbase.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. stockanalysis.com, 36. www.nasdaq.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com, 38. valueinvesting.io, 39. coincodex.com, 40. www.marketbeat.com, 41. www.bloomberg.com, 42. www.nasdaq.com, 43. www.sec.gov, 44. investor.coinbase.com, 45. www.nasdaq.com
