December 24, 2025 — Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) is ending 2025 in the middle of a familiar tug-of-war: the stock still trades like a high-beta proxy for the crypto cycle, but the company is trying hard to re-rate itself as something broader—an “everything exchange” that can keep users engaged even when crypto spot trading slows.
During the Dec. 24 session, COIN traded around the $238 level (real-time pricing varies by venue), after closing at $242.30 on Dec. 23. [1]
That near-term softness comes as bitcoin remains well below its October peak after a volatile year—exactly the kind of environment that tends to amplify Coinbase stock’s swings. [2]
But the bigger story for investors into year-end is strategic: Coinbase has accelerated a multi-front expansion into stocks, prediction markets, tokenized equities, stablecoin rails, and derivatives, backed by a busy acquisition calendar. [3]
Below is a full roundup of today’s (24.12.2025) current news, forecasts, and analysis shaping Coinbase stock—and what to watch next.
Why Coinbase stock is moving on Dec. 24, 2025
1) Crypto volatility is still the dominant “macro” factor for COIN
Coinbase’s core transaction revenue is highly sensitive to price levels, volatility, and trading volumes across major tokens—especially bitcoin and Ethereum. In 2025, bitcoin surged to roughly $126,000 in October before pulling back sharply into late November/December, reinforcing the year’s “up fast, down fast” pattern that spills into crypto-linked equities like COIN. [4]
A Reuters legal/markets analysis published today underscores that the same volatility that fuels speculative activity can also fuel disputes, enforcement gaps, and litigation risk—another layer that investors increasingly price into crypto-exposed stocks. [5]
2) Investors are scrutinizing “trading weakness” vs. “product expansion”
Coinbase has been pitching a future where engagement isn’t purely dependent on crypto spot fees. That ambition is now being tested in real time: new products are arriving, but the market wants proof they can move the revenue needle meaningfully and predictably.
Some analysts have recently pointed to softer volumes / weaker trends as a reason for more cautious near-term targets—while others argue the broader product suite materially expands Coinbase’s addressable market. [6]
3) Insider selling and institutional positioning are in focus
On the company-specific tape, Form 4-driven headlines also mattered this week. MarketBeat reported that CEO Brian Armstrong sold 40,000 shares on Dec. 22 at an average price around $250.15, a transaction worth about $10.0 million (as disclosed via an SEC filing). [7]
At the same time, filings-based coverage continues to highlight incremental positioning by smaller institutions and advisors—signals that may matter more for sentiment than for actual float dynamics. [8]
The biggest Coinbase company news driving the COIN narrative this week
Coinbase pushes into stock trading and “event contracts” via Kalshi partnership
Coinbase’s most consequential near-term catalyst isn’t a token listing—it’s the company’s formal move to let users trade stocks and event contracts (prediction market-style products), in partnership with Kalshi, as it competes more directly with retail trading platforms like Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. [9]
Key details from Reuters:
- Coinbase said it will start letting users trade stocks and event contracts tied to real-world outcomes. [10]
- The expansion comes amid heightened regulatory uncertainty for event contracts, with some state regulators arguing they resemble betting products, while industry participants point to the CFTC as the primary federal regulator. [11]
- Coinbase also said it will launch tokenized stocks “in the coming months,” with the pitch of near-24/7 access and on-chain settlement concepts. [12]
This is the heart of the current investment debate: if Coinbase can turn its existing customer base into multi-asset traders, it may be able to smooth revenue volatility over cycles and defend margins as crypto spot fees face competition.
Acquisition: The Clearing Company, another bet on prediction markets
On Dec. 22, Coinbase said it will acquire prediction markets startup The Clearing Company, described by Reuters as Coinbase’s tenth acquisition this year. The deal is expected to close in January, and terms were not disclosed. [13]
Reuters frames the logic clearly: prediction markets can be a “high-engagement, high-frequency” product that gives customers a reason to open the app beyond pure crypto trading, while also pulling Coinbase deeper into an arena drawing growing scrutiny. [14]
Legal front: prediction market push is drawing state-level conflict
Coinbase’s expansion into prediction markets is also bringing legal friction. Barron’s reported Coinbase filed lawsuits against Michigan, Illinois, and Connecticut, arguing that prediction markets should fall under the CFTC rather than state gambling rules. [15]
For COIN investors, this matters because product expansion can look less like a straight-line growth story and more like a regulatory chess match—and timelines (and monetization) can shift fast.
The longer runway: tokenized equities and SEC “green light” efforts
Coinbase’s tokenized-equities ambitions didn’t start this month. Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported Coinbase was seeking SEC approval (such as a no-action letter or exemptive relief) to offer “tokenized equities,” effectively enabling stock trading via blockchain rails. [16]
This is a material, multi-year thesis driver:
- If tokenized equities become mainstream, Coinbase could position itself not just as a broker but as infrastructure for issuance, custody, settlement, and secondary trading.
- If approvals are slow or fragmented, Coinbase may still build internationally—but the U.S. monetization story could lag.
Coinbase’s 2025 expansion spree: Derivatives, M&A, and a “super app” strategy
Deribit deal and the derivatives push
Coinbase’s acquisition of crypto derivatives exchange Deribit has become a central piece of its “more than spot trading” narrative. Reuters reported in May that Coinbase agreed to acquire Deribit in a $2.9 billion deal that included cash and Coinbase stock. [17]
In Reuters’ Oct. 30 earnings coverage, Coinbase’s derivatives expansion was highlighted again as a strategic pillar, particularly around crypto options. [18]
“Everything app” framing is now mainstream Wall Street language
Investopedia summarized Coinbase’s December product slate as a deliberate attempt to evolve into a comprehensive financial platform—stock trading, prediction markets, tokenization, and an AI-powered robo-advisor concept were all part of the public positioning. [19]
Whether you call it an “everything exchange,” a “super app,” or a multi-asset brokerage, the objective is similar: higher lifetime value per user and less dependence on the most cyclical part of crypto.
What Coinbase’s latest financial disclosures say about momentum and 2026 setup
Q3 performance: strong profitability, but investors want consistency
Coinbase’s Q3 2025 results (reported Oct. 30) showed substantial profitability and strong revenue—helped by market volatility and trading activity. Reuters reported net income of about $432.6 million (about $1.50 per share) and a sharp increase in transaction revenue year-over-year. [20]
Coinbase’s own Q3’25 shareholder letter reported:
- Total revenue: about $1.9 billion in Q3, up 25% quarter-over-quarter
- Transaction revenue: about $1.0 billion, up 37% quarter-over-quarter
- Subscription & services revenue: about $747 million, up 14% quarter-over-quarter
- Net income: about $433 million; Adjusted EBITDA: about $801 million [21]
Company outlook: Q4 subscription/services guidance and October transaction revenue snapshot
In that same shareholder letter, Coinbase provided a Q4 outlook range:
- Subscription and services revenue:$710–$790 million
- Technology & development + G&A:$925–$975 million
- Sales & marketing:$215–$315 million
- October transaction revenue: approximately $385 million, while urging caution about extrapolating [22]
This matters for COIN stock because it gives investors a framework for how much Coinbase expects stablecoin and subscription revenue to offset any softness in transaction fees.
Analyst forecasts and price targets for COIN: where Wall Street stands now
Analyst sentiment into Dec. 24 is best described as constructively bullish but divided on timing—a split between those who believe Coinbase’s platform expansion can structurally lift valuation and those who worry near-term volumes and crypto prices could limit upside.
Consensus targets
Aggregated analyst data continues to show sizeable upside potential versus the current price area, with wide dispersion:
- MarketBeat reports an average target around $383.54, with targets ranging from $230 (low) to $510 (high). [23]
- (Different aggregators may show slightly different counts and averages, but dispersion remains a key signal: COIN is a high-uncertainty name.)
Recent, widely-circulated calls
- Deutsche Bank initiated/flagged a Buy view with a $340 target, arguing the expanded product suite could widen Coinbase’s addressable market and reduce cyclicality over time. [24]
- Mizuho has been more cautious, reiterating a Neutral stance and a $280 target in December, citing lower volumes / weaker trends and other near-term concerns. [25]
- Cantor Fitzgerald maintained an Overweight rating but lowered its price target to $320 (from a higher prior target), reflecting a more conservative near-term stance while still endorsing the strategic direction. [26]
The takeaway: even bullish firms are increasingly distinguishing between the long-term platform story and the short-term cycle.
The regulatory backdrop: friendlier federal tone, but “unfinished business” into 2026
The regulatory environment is a core swing factor for Coinbase’s valuation because it influences:
- which products can launch in the U.S.,
- how fast institutions adopt,
- and whether legal liabilities remain “headline risk.”
Reuters reported that under President Trump’s second administration, the crypto industry notched several wins in 2025, including the SEC dismissing prior lawsuits (including against Coinbase) and the passage of a law creating federal rules for dollar-pegged stablecoins—while broader crypto market-structure legislation remained stalled in the Senate, leaving uncertainty looking into 2026. [27]
Separately, Reuters reported Coinbase appointed former UK finance minister George Osborne to run an internal advisory council, reflecting a push to shape policy influence beyond the U.S., particularly in the UK and EU. [28]
For COIN stock, a “friendlier” headline environment can lift multiples—but the market still cares about what becomes durable law versus what could shift with politics.
Bull case vs. bear case for Coinbase stock as 2025 ends
The bull case
Investors who are bullish into 2026 usually point to a combination of:
- Diversification: Moving beyond pure crypto spot fees into stocks, prediction markets, tokenization, subscriptions, and stablecoin rails. [29]
- Higher engagement products: Prediction markets and multi-asset trading could increase app opens and trading frequency. [30]
- Derivatives scale: Deribit adds a meaningful institutional and options footprint. [31]
- Stablecoin monetization: Coinbase’s disclosures highlight USDC-driven growth as a strategic engine. [32]
The bear case
Skeptics focus on:
- Cycle dependence: Even with new products, COIN still tends to trade as a leveraged bet on bitcoin/crypto sentiment. [33]
- Execution risk: Rolling out equities trading, tokenized equities, and prediction markets is operationally and legally complex—and timelines can slip. [34]
- Regulatory fragmentation: Event contracts in particular face cross-currents between federal and state interpretations. [35]
- Litigation and disclosure risk: As enforcement ebbs and flows, private litigation can become a bigger factor for the sector overall. [36]
What to watch next: near-term catalysts for COIN into early 2026
If you’re following Coinbase stock closely, these are the catalysts most likely to matter:
- Closing of The Clearing Company acquisition (expected January) and what Coinbase says about product integration and monetization. [37]
- Adoption metrics for stock trading and prediction markets: user participation, frequency, and revenue contribution (not just product announcements). [38]
- Tokenized equities progress—especially whether Coinbase gets clearer pathways in the U.S. or leans more heavily on international rollout. [39]
- Crypto market regime: if volatility returns, COIN can benefit from trading activity; if markets stagnate, Coinbase must prove the non-crypto suite drives engagement. [40]
- Regulatory developments into 2026, including any SEC “innovation exemption” framework referenced by Reuters reporting. [41]
Bottom line for Dec. 24, 2025
Coinbase stock is finishing the year under pressure with crypto prices still digesting 2025’s dramatic swings. But the company is not standing still: Coinbase is explicitly trying to become a multi-asset, multi-product platform—adding equities trading, prediction markets, and tokenization while backing the push with acquisitions and partnerships.
For COIN investors, the core question into 2026 isn’t whether Coinbase can ship products—it’s whether those products can produce durable, diversified revenue at scale, without being derailed by regulatory whiplash or “crypto winter” volume compression.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. www.marketbeat.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. investor.coinbase.com, 22. investor.coinbase.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. investor.coinbase.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.reuters.com
