NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:10 a.m. ET — Market closed
Coinbase Global, Inc. (NASDAQ: COIN) heads into the final stretch of the year with investors balancing two big forces that often move the stock fast: headline risk (security and regulation) and cycle exposure (crypto prices and trading activity). With U.S. stock markets closed for the weekend, COIN won’t trade again in the regular session until Monday morning—but crypto trades 24/7, and the weekend tape can still shape Monday’s open.
As of the most recent U.S. close, Coinbase shares finished Friday at $236.90, down 1.18% on the day. [1] Meanwhile, Bitcoin was around $87,632 late Saturday night ET—one of the key macro inputs for Coinbase sentiment heading into Monday’s session.
COIN stock snapshot: where shares left off Friday
Coinbase closed Friday at $236.90, underperforming the broad market on the day (the S&P 500 was slightly lower). [2] Over the past month, Zacks data published on Nasdaq.com noted COIN shares were down 9.53% over the prior four weeks at the time of writing—an important context point because COIN frequently trades like a “high beta” proxy for crypto sentiment and risk appetite. [3]
After-hours trading can add another wrinkle for Monday’s setup. StockAnalysis listed COIN at $235.95 in after-hours trading late Friday (about -0.40% after hours), highlighting how even small moves outside the regular session can influence Monday’s opening tone. [4]
Main weekend catalyst: former agent arrested in India tied to exchange hack probe
The most consequential company-specific headline in the last 48 hours: a former customer service agent connected to Coinbase was arrested in India in an investigation tied to a prior security incident.
Reuters coverage carried by Investing.com reported that Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said the former agent was arrested following a breach in which hackers bribed staff to access customer information, and reiterated that Coinbase is working with law enforcement. [5]
A Bloomberg write-up republished by Moneycontrol added further color, saying Coinbase confirmed the arrest and linked the development to recent work with the Brooklyn District Attorney’s Office involving charges against a Brooklyn man accused of a long-running impersonation scheme targeting Coinbase customers. The same report also pointed back to Coinbase’s earlier estimate that remediation costs from the breach could reach up to $400 million. [6]
Why this matters for COIN shareholders heading into Monday:
- Trust is a product in crypto finance. Security headlines can quickly affect user activity, institutional comfort, and regulatory posture—often showing up in sentiment before it shows up in financials.
- The market also tends to reward closure and accountability when incidents move from “breach story” to “investigation with arrests,” because it signals enforcement momentum rather than lingering uncertainty. [7]
Policy and regulation: Armstrong draws a “red line” on stablecoin-yield changes
The other notable weekend driver is regulatory—and it has big implications for Coinbase’s longer-term “less trading, more infrastructure” narrative.
A Cointelegraph report carried by TradingView said Armstrong called any attempt to reopen the GENIUS Act a “red line,” accusing banks of lobbying to block competition from stablecoins and fintech platforms. The same report also quoted Armstrong predicting that banks may eventually lobby for the ability to pay interest or yield on stablecoins once they see the opportunity. [8]
The report also described how the GENIUS Act framework (as characterized there) restricts stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly while allowing platforms/third parties to offer “rewards,” and noted a separate legislative discussion draft that would exempt certain small stablecoin transactions from capital gains treatment (as described in the article). [9]
For investors, the key takeaway isn’t just political drama—it’s the revenue model. Coinbase’s economics increasingly hinge on products like stablecoin-related revenue and subscription/services lines, not only retail trading volume. So headlines that clarify—or threaten—what’s allowed in stablecoins and rewards can affect how the market prices Coinbase’s next cycle of margins.
Wall Street outlook: bullish targets remain—but the analyst debate is not settled
Even as headline risk flares, sell-side and market commentary continues to frame Coinbase as a “picks-and-shovels” platform for on-chain finance—especially if regulatory clarity improves.
Clear Street: “Buy” and a $415 target
An Investing.com piece summarizing Clear Street’s fintech outlook said Clear Street assigns Coinbase a Buy rating with a $415 price target, positioning COIN as a leading large-cap way to express long-term blockchain adoption. The same article argues Coinbase’s revenue base is more diversified than in past cycles (with growing contributions from subscription services and stablecoin economics) and references Coinbase’s push to become an “Everything Exchange,” including new product offerings such as commission-free trading and a robo-advisor service (as stated in that report). [10]
The same write-up also noted mixed stances from other firms—mentioning Cantor Fitzgerald reiterating an Overweight rating while Mizuho and Goldman Sachs maintained Neutral ratings—illustrating that Coinbase remains a battleground stock even among bulls. [11]
Broad consensus: “Buy,” but with a wide target range
StockAnalysis shows how wide the debate really is. It lists a consensus “Buy” rating and an average price target around $378, but with targets ranging from $230 on the low end to $510 on the high end. [12]
It also surfaces several prominent analyst names and recent target moves, including:
- Andrew Harte (BTIG) reiterating a bullish stance and listing a $420 target (as displayed there). [13]
- Ed Engel (Compass Point) maintaining a bearish view with a target shown as $266 → $230. [14]
- Benjamin Budish (Barclays) showing a $357 → $291 target adjustment with a Hold stance (as listed). [15]
- Brian Bedell (Deutsche Bank) initiating coverage with a $340 target (as shown). [16]
That spread is a reminder that COIN is not a typical brokerage or exchange stock in the eyes of Wall Street—it’s part tech platform, part financial infrastructure, part crypto volatility vehicle, and part regulatory bet.
What investors should know before Monday’s session
Because the market is closed now, the practical question becomes: what variables can change before the opening bell, and which ones matter most for COIN?
1) Watch the crypto weekend tape (yes, even if you don’t “trade crypto”)
Coinbase is still highly sensitive to the crypto complex, and Bitcoin is often the headline proxy. With BTC around $87,632 late Saturday, weekend volatility could push sentiment into Monday—especially if there’s a sharp move in either direction.
2) Track follow-through on the security headline
The arrest story is likely to evolve: additional details, potential further arrests, or clarifications around the scope of the earlier breach can all swing sentiment. Reuters’ account emphasized the “bribed staff” angle and Coinbase’s law enforcement cooperation, while Bloomberg’s version (via Moneycontrol) also pointed to the Brooklyn DA thread and repeated the previously cited remediation-cost estimate. [17]
3) Stablecoin policy headlines can hit like earnings—without warning
Armstrong’s public stance on stablecoin rewards and the GENIUS Act isn’t a one-day story; it’s part of an ongoing tug-of-war that could define how profitable stablecoin distribution and rewards become across U.S. platforms. If lawmakers, bank lobby groups, or crypto trade organizations respond publicly, expect COIN to react—sometimes more than the broader market—because it’s directly exposed to U.S. regulatory outcomes. [18]
4) Know the calendar mechanics: thin liquidity, year-end positioning, and market hours
Regular U.S. equity trading runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. [19] Year-end markets can be thinner and more jumpy, and the next major schedule landmarks are close: Investopedia noted a full trading day on New Year’s Eve (Dec. 31) and a market closure on New Year’s Day (Jan. 1, 2026). [20]
5) Keep earnings expectations in frame (but don’t confuse estimates with confirmation)
Zacks commentary published on Nasdaq.com highlighted consensus-style expectations for Coinbase’s upcoming earnings period (including projected EPS and revenue figures in that note), reinforcing that the next major fundamental checkpoint will be the next earnings release rather than weekend headlines alone. [21] For timing, Nasdaq’s earnings page lists an estimated next earnings date in mid-February 2026 (algorithm-based and subject to confirmation). [22]
The setup for Monday: a classic COIN crosscurrent
Coinbase stock heads into Monday with three narratives colliding:
- Security/accountability: an arrest that signals investigative momentum, but also reminds investors that insider/contractor risk remains a live topic. [23]
- Policy leverage: stablecoin rules and “rewards” economics are becoming central to how the market values Coinbase beyond trading fees. [24]
- Analyst dispersion: bullish long-term targets coexist with real skepticism—producing a wide valuation range that can amplify price reactions to incremental news. [25]
When U.S. markets reopen, COIN will be trading not just on what happened Friday—but on whatever the weekend revealed about crypto prices, regulatory momentum, and whether the market interprets the latest security news as “contained” or “continuing.”
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.nasdaq.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.moneycontrol.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.tradingview.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. uk.investing.com, 11. uk.investing.com, 12. stockanalysis.com, 13. stockanalysis.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. stockanalysis.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.tradingview.com, 19. www.nyse.com, 20. www.investopedia.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.tradingview.com, 25. uk.investing.com
