New York, February 15, 2026, 10:35 (EST) — Market closed
Shares of Coinbase Global Inc (COIN.O) surged 16.46% on Friday, finishing at $164.32 and erasing the previous session’s sharp losses. Bitcoin edged higher, while a lighter U.S. inflation reading gave risk appetite a lift.
That puts the crypto exchange’s shares under the spotlight heading into Tuesday, after the Presidents Day break. Bitcoin hovered near $69,000 on Sunday, not quite breaking through the $70,000 line traders have been watching.
Coinbase reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $667 million, attributing the hit to a $718 million loss from its crypto asset investment portfolio and another $395 million from strategic investments, according to a shareholder letter filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The company called crypto “cyclical” and insisted “never as good, or as bad as it seems.” Transaction revenue slipped to $982.7 million, while stablecoin revenue picked up, reaching $364.1 million. Adjusted EBITDA landed at $566 million. For the first quarter, Coinbase pegged transaction revenue at roughly $420 million as of Feb. 10. The exchange also pointed to its completed Deribit acquisition and said a U.S. launch of prediction markets is coming, with Kalshi driving the first market flows. SEC
Stablecoins are tokens built to keep their value fixed, usually pegged to the U.S. dollar.
Chief Executive Brian Armstrong says “The Everything Exchange is working,” citing roughly 1 million paying Coinbase One subscribers and record amounts of USDC stashed on the platform. The company noted that early in the first quarter, it saw its highest 24-hour trading volume in over a year, while also pushing further into derivatives. Coinbase Investor Relations
But the company’s fee machine depends on trading, and retail flows can dry up quickly when crypto prices stall. “It’s all about the company’s diversification and shock absorbers,” said David Bartosiak, stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, who noted stablecoins and subscriptions are in focus. Reuters noted the shares have lost almost 40% since January. That same article flagged stalled U.S. crypto legislation, with Coinbase’s decision to pull support blamed for the Clarity Act’s holdup. Reuters
Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani and his team are keeping their “outperform” call on the stock, sticking with a $440 price target as of Friday—even after trimming that from $510. In their note, they described shares as still too “cheap” to let go. But they flagged a risk: if crypto volatility doesn’t ease up, there’s “nowhere to hide.” Decrypt
Buybacks are also in the mix. Coinbase has pledged to keep “buying the dip” in bitcoin, and snapping up its own stock as well. The company poured $1.7 billion into stock repurchases between early October and early February, CFO Alesia Haas said. There’s still about $2.3 billion left in the current buyback program. Investopedia
The bearish scenario isn’t much of a stretch. Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered told Barron’s that bitcoin’s momentum-driven swings could send it down to $50,000 before stabilizing, a tumble that would probably put a dent in trading volumes across crypto exchanges.
Friday, Feb. 20, is circled on calendars: that’s when the Bureau of Economic Analysis plans to drop its advance read on Q4 GDP, along with December’s personal income and outlays numbers—including the PCE price index. Any move in rate expectations off those details could drive crypto-adjacent names like Coinbase when trading picks back up.
