NEW YORK, January 30, 2026, 12:22 EST — Regular session
- Shares of Coinbase slipped roughly 2.6% by midday, following bitcoin’s decline and a cooling in risk appetite.
- Coinbase announced that its Kalshi-powered prediction markets have launched nationwide, now available in all 50 U.S. states.
- Washington’s crypto rulebook remains under scrutiny as a White House meeting looms on Feb. 2, with Coinbase’s earnings due Feb. 12.
Coinbase Global (COIN.O) shares dropped roughly 2.6% to $193.91 on Friday, edging down from an opening price of $198.70 and nearing the day’s low.
This matters because Coinbase’s earnings often fluctuate with crypto prices and trading volumes — when markets cool off or drop sharply, both retail and institutional clients tend to pull back. Traders are also on edge ahead of U.S. policy announcements that could overhaul how major exchanges manage core functions like custody, trading, and stablecoin operations.
Bitcoin dropped 2.5% to roughly $82,300, marking its lowest point in two months, amid growing worries that the incoming Fed chair might tighten liquidity. Damien Boey from Wilson Asset Management noted that “all the hedges… gold, crypto… start to sell” when discussions about shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet pick up. 1
Investor sentiment took a hit following President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to head the central bank, a choice seen by many as tougher than other contenders. “There is a general sense of hawkishness,” noted Swissquote Bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya. 2
Coinbase is ramping up its retail product lineup. This week, the company announced it launched prediction markets across all 50 U.S. states through a deal with Kalshi. The new feature lets users trade on real-world events, spanning sports, politics, and more. Trading apps like Robinhood and Webull have rolled out similar products recently. 3
Prediction markets revolve around “event contracts”—trades that settle at $1 if the event occurs, and $0 if it doesn’t. According to Coinbase’s product page, the current price reflects the market’s odds. Trading is handled by Coinbase Financial Markets, a registered futures commission merchant with the CFTC. 4
Regulators are honing in on this space. CFTC chair Michael Selig, in prepared remarks, called for “clear rules” around prediction markets and ordered staff to scrap a 2024 rule that would have banned political and sports event contracts, Axios reported. 5
Crypto legislation remains a looming issue. On Feb. 2, the White House’s crypto council plans to meet with bank execs and crypto trade groups to chart a way forward for stalled bills, Reuters reported. The key debate: whether crypto firms should be allowed to pay interest and rewards on stablecoins, those dollar-pegged tokens. “Proud to participate in next week’s meeting,” said Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger. 6
The Senate Agriculture Committee pushed forward a crypto market structure bill Thursday on a strict party-line vote, highlighting its uphill battle for broader Democratic backing in the full Senate. The proposal aims to grant the CFTC oversight of spot crypto markets — where tokens are traded instantly — and impose regulatory standards on digital commodity exchanges and brokers. 7
But these new prediction market offerings come with risks. State regulators have already taken Kalshi and similar sites to court, arguing that sports-related event contracts cross the line into gambling under state laws. Legal battles could stretch on, even as the CFTC revises its stance. Gaming attorney Dan Wallach noted, “The platforms haven’t had any legal cover… That will now change.” 8
Traders are turning their attention to the Feb. 2 White House meeting, looking for any breakthrough on stablecoin rewards and the ongoing “Clarity Act” dispute. They’ll also be watching to see if bitcoin can regain footing after this week’s drop. Coinbase plans to release its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings after the market closes on Feb. 12. 9
