Published: December 13, 2025
Coles Group Ltd (ASX :COL ) heads into the weekend with investors focused on three themes that are shaping the near-term narrative for Australia’s second-largest listed grocer: (1) an expanded, multi-year on-demand delivery partnership with Uber Eats that becomes exclusive from late December, (2) a first-quarter FY26 trading picture showing stronger supermarket sales and fast-growing eCommerce despite a weak liquor market, and (3) a widening spread in broker views on valuation as the stock hovers near the low-$22 range. [1]
Coles shares last closed at A$21.79 on Friday, December 12, 2025 , after trading between A$21.78 and A$21.97 during the session, with reported volume of roughly 2.14 million shares . [2]
Below is what’s making news, what analysts are forecasting, and what the market will likely be watching next.
Coles share price snapshot: steady, defensive — but not “cheap” to everyone
Coles stock has been moving in a relatively tight band in early December, with recent closes clustered around A$21.7–A$21.9 . [3]
On a longer lens, Coles is still broadly viewed as a lower-volatility consumer staples name : StockAnalysis data lists a 5-year beta around 0.43 and a 52-week price change around +15% . [4]
Coles’ market value remains substantial, with Fintel placing market capitalization at roughly A$29.1 billion as of 12 December. [5]
Biggest current news: Coles expands Uber Eats partnership — exclusivity begins December 26
The most consequential near-term headline for Coles’ digital channel is the expansion of its partnership with Uber Eats , announced in Australia on 11 December 2025 .
Key points from Uber’s newsroom release:
- Customers can order up to 17,000 Coles products through the Uber Eats app (Uber says this is more than 50% higher than before). [6]
- The expanded range is available immediately , but Uber Eats becomes Coles’ exclusive on-demand delivery partner from Friday, December 26, 2025 . [7]
- Uber says the partnership includes regular promotions , perks for Uber One members, and notes “hundreds” of Coles items will be offered at standard in-store retail prices . [8]
- Uber and Coles also pointed to last-minute seasonal demand, saying they expect demand to peak on Christmas Eve , and shared selected Christmas-period purchasing stats from 2024. [9]
Industry coverage in Inside Retail frames the move as part of a broader reshuffle in third‑party delivery partnerships, noting DoorDash’s move to bring Woolworths onto its platform and that Coles is leaving DoorDash as the Uber Eats relationship becomes exclusive from 26 December. [10]
Why this matters for Coles stock
For equity investors, the Uber Eats news is less about a single week of sales and more about strategic positioning :
- Convenience is becoming a competitive battleground , especially around “top-up” and urgent basketball missions.
- Coles is signaling it wants to be “present” in multiple fulfillment modes (home delivery, click & collect, and on-demand delivery), with Uber highlighting the “immediacy” value proposition. [11]
- The exclusivity angle reduces channel fragmentation and may simplify marketing/retail media coordination (Uber explicitly references retail media as part of the partnership scope). [12]
Investors will be watching whether this translates into incremental baskets (new customers or higher frequency) rather than merely cannibalizing orders that might have come through Coles Online.
Broker and market chatter: “vertical integration” back in focus
Coles’ supply chain and in-house production footprint has been a recurring feature of recent sell-side commentary.
UBS tour highlights: meat, milk, convenience meals — and a Buy call
In ABC’s markets live coverage (10 December 2025), the broadcaster reported on a UBS note following a tour of Coles’ large-scale operations in Erskine Park in western Sydney. The UBS material cited in the ABC report flagged:
- ~ 90% of Coles’ own-brand convenience meals coming from the site,
- just under half of its meat and about a third of poultry products processed there,
- and Coles own-brand milk produced and distributed across 600 stores . [13]
ABC also noted the UBS view included a 12‑month ‘buy’ rating and an A$25 target price . [14]
Jefferies view: upside is “tangible” — but efficiency questions remain
A Reuters/Refinitiv note republished on TradingView on 9 December 2025 captured Jefferies’ more cautious framing: the broker questioned whether Coles’ in-house food production matches third-party cost efficiency or delivers arm’s-length returns (with automated dairy operations described as under-utilized), but still said the upside of vertical integration appears tangible and supports Coles’ execution. [15]
Jefferies kept a Hold rating with an A$21 price target . [16]
The split between UBS and Jefferies helps explain why Coles can feel like a “steady” defensive holding in price action, while still generating debate on valuation and long-run margin structure.
Coles fundamentals: what the latest trading picture says about demand, pricing and margins
Q1 FY26: supermarkets strength + eCommerce surge, liquor weak
Coles’ most recent quarterly trading detail (first quarter of FY26, 13 weeks to late September 2025) painted a clear pattern:
Supermarkets (Q1 FY26):
- Sales revenue A$9.965 billion , up 4.8% year-on-year. [17]
- Comparable sales growth +4.6% . [18]
- eCommerce sales A$1.321 billion , up 27.9% , with eCommerce penetration 13.3% . [19]
- Coles also disclosed supermarket inflation (excluding tobacco) moderating to 1.2% . [20]
Liquor (Q1 FY26):
- Sales revenue A$842 million , down 1.1% , with comparable sales down 1.4% . [21]
- Liquor eCommerce sales rose 6.8% (A$63 million), with penetration 7.6% . [22]
- Management commentary pointed to ongoing “softness” in liquor as consumers focus on value. [23]
Tobacco: a visible drag, but shrinking share of the mix
Coles also highlighted that new tobacco legislation and illicit-market growth led to a 57% decline in tobacco sales versus the prior corresponding period, with tobacco sales now less than 2% of total sales for the quarter. [24]
For investors, this matters because it can distort topline comparisons (especially “ex-tobacco” growth rates) and complicated like-for-like interpretation across quarters.
Outlook signals heading into the festive season: “similar” early Q2 growth, more own-brand launches
In his outlook commentary, Coles said that in the early part of the second quarter , supermarket sales revenue growth had remained at similar levels to the first quarter , while emphasizing a competitive market into the festive season. [25]
Coles also said it launched more than 340 new own-brand products and specialty drinks as part of its Christmas range. [26]
On the liquor side, Coles noted the market remains challenging and said it planned to complete the “vast majority” of remaining Simply Liquorland conversions by the end of the calendar year. [27]
Analyst forecasts: price targets cluster in the mid-$20s — but the range is wide
There isn’t a single “official” consensus across platforms, but the overall message is consistent: targets skew above the current share price , with meaningful dispersion.
- Investing.com’s consensus estimates (15 analysts) show an average 12‑month target around A$23.56 , with a high estimate A$26.6 and a low estimate A$16.5 ; the same page lists a consensus stance of “Buy” (9 buys, 5 holds, 1 sell). [28]
- Jefferies’ Reuters/Refinitiv note (via TradingView) cites LSEG data showing a mean price target of A$24.06 , and says 10 of 15 analysts rate the stock “buy” or higher, with the remainder “hold.” [29]
- UBS’ view referenced by ABC includes an A$25 target price and a Buy rating. [30]
- Motley Fool Australia reported Macquarie retained an Outperform rating with an A$26.10 target price (10 December 2025). [31]
- Jefferies, as noted, sits at the cautious end with Hold and A$21 . [32]
How to interpret the spread
The gap in targets tends to come down to three assumptions:
- Sustainable margin trajectory (especially whether supply chain automation and vertical integration expand EBIT margins or merely defend them).
- Competitive intensity (how aggressively Coles and rivals invest in price, loyalty, and convenience).
- Digital economics (delivery cost-to-serve, pick efficiency, basket sizes, and whether partnerships like Uber Eats are accretive after fees and promotions).
Dividend and shareholder returns: FY25 payout confirmed, franking remains a key appeal
Income remains part of the Coles equity story.
In the chairman’s address at Coles’ 2025 AGM, the company noted it declared a fully franked total dividend of 69 cents per share for FY25, “returning more than A$925 million ” to shareholders. [33]
For investors who prioritize dividends, Coles’ “staples + franking” profile is a core reason the stock is frequently framed as defensive—particularly when consumer discretionary names are more exposed to confidence shocks.
Regulatory and legal backdrop: supplier code is now mandatory, ACCC action still in the frame
Two structural developments continue to hover over the major supermarkets:
1) Mandatory Food and Grocery Code of Conduct (from 1 April 2025)
The ACCC states the remade Food and Grocery Code of Conduct started on 1 April 2025 and is mandatory , applying automatically to large grocery businesses and regulating how they deal with suppliers (with the ACCC responsible for enforcement). [34]
This doesn’t automatically change Coles’ earnings, but it can influence:
- supplier negotiations
- dispute resolution
- and compliance costs.
2) ACCC supermarket inquiry and related enforcement proceedings
The ACCC’s supermarkets inquiry ran over one year, with a final report provided to the Treasurer on 28 February 2025 and published 21 March 2025 . [35]
Separately, the ACCC has proceedings in the Federal Court against Coles Supermarkets Australia Pty Ltd (a Coles Group subsidiary) and Woolworths over alleged misleading discount pricing claims (the ACCC describes “Down Down” and “Prices Dropped” promotions). [36]
In that media release, the ACCC alleges Coles’ conduct involved 245 products at different times across 15 months (February 2022 to May 2023), and says it is seeking declarations, penalties and other orders. [37]
For markets, the key variable is whether outcomes are limited to penalties/remedies or whether they lead to broader operational constraints around promotional mechanics.
Another risk investors keep modeling: wage underpayment remediation
A separate, material uncertainty flagged in 2025 is the potential cost of staff underpayment remediation.
Reuters reported in September 2025 that Coles expected an additional A$150 million to A$250 million in remediation, after having already paid A$31 million , following a federal court ruling concerning historical underpayments. [38]
Investors will typically watch for updates on:
- provisioning,
- timing of cash outflows,
- and whether the ultimate cost lands at the high end of the range.
What to watch next for Coles (ASX :COL )
Heading into late December and early 2026, the catalysts most likely to move Coles stock are:
- Early read-through from the Uber Eats expansion : order volumes, customer acquisition, and whether promotions drive profitable baskets rather than margin-dilutive growth. [39]
- Christmas trading conditions and pricing intensity : Coles has already positioned its festive range and value message, while noting competition remains dynamic. [40]
- Liquor turnaround execution : the pace and payback of “Simply Liquorland” conversions amid a subdued liquor market. [41]
- Regulatory/legal updates : any meaningful milestones in ACCC proceedings or enforcement direction under the mandatory supplier code. [42]
- Remediation cost clarity : updates that tighten the wage underpayment cost range. [43]
Bottom line
As of 13 December 2025 , the Coles investment case is being pulled by two forces at once:
- The defensive staples story remains intact—steady supermarket demand, moderated inflation, and a dividend profile that appeals to income-focused investors. [44]
- But the stock is no longer a “set-and-forget” narrative: investors are actively weighing whether vertical integration and automation are true structural margin tailwinds, and whether on-demand delivery partnerships strengthen economics or intensively promotional competition. [45]
With analysts’ price targets clustering mostly above the current share price—but with some notable caution—Coles looks positioned to remain a heavily debated, highly watched name through the holiday period and into FY26 reporting. [46]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. fintel.io, 6. www.uber.com, 7. www.uber.com, 8. www.uber.com, 9. www.uber.com, 10. insideretail.com.au, 11. www.uber.com, 12. www.uber.com, 13. www.abc.net.au, 14. www.abc.net.au, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.tradingview.com, 17. www.colesgroup.com.au, 18. www.colesgroup.com.au, 19. www.colesgroup.com.au, 20. www.colesgroup.com.au, 21. www.colesgroup.com.au, 22. www.colesgroup.com.au, 23. www.colesgroup.com.au, 24. www.colesgroup.com.au, 25. www.colesgroup.com.au, 26. www.colesgroup.com.au, 27. www.colesgroup.com.au, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.tradingview.com, 30. www.abc.net.au, 31. www.fool.com.au, 32. www.tradingview.com, 33. www.colesgroup.com.au, 34. www.accc.gov.au, 35. www.accc.gov.au, 36. www.accc.gov.au, 37. www.accc.gov.au, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.uber.com, 40. www.colesgroup.com.au, 41. www.colesgroup.com.au, 42. www.accc.gov.au, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.colesgroup.com.au, 45. www.abc.net.au, 46. www.investing.com
