Sydney, Jan 6, 2026, 18:45 AEDT — Market closed
- Coles closed down 2.8%, underperforming a weaker Australian share market.
- Investors are positioning for Wednesday’s inflation print and its impact on rate expectations.
- Coles’ next scheduled update is its HY26 results on Feb. 27.
Coles Group Ltd shares ended Tuesday down 2.8% at A$20.57, after sliding from an early A$21.11 and trading as low as A$20.55, the company’s investor page showed.
The drop left Coles lagging the broader market as Australia’s benchmark ASX 200 closed 0.52% lower, with investors focused on the next inflation reading. “Uncertainty over whether the inflation rise is structural or seasonal” is driving positioning, VanEck’s Arian Neiron said, according to a market wrap. News.com.au
That inflation test lands on Wednesday, when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases November CPI at 11:30am AEDT. CPI, or the consumer price index, tracks changes in the cost of a basket of goods and services and is the country’s main inflation gauge.
For supermarkets, the inflation print feeds directly into the interest-rate debate and household budgets. Higher rates can pressure consumer staples by lifting bond yields and reducing the appeal of dividend-heavy defensives, while also weighing on spending outside essentials.
Coles’ larger rival Woolworths Group also finished lower, with its share price at A$28.84 late Tuesday, the company’s website showed.
Regulatory scrutiny remains an overhang for the supermarket duopoly. Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in a Dec. 14 statement that a ban on “excessive” grocery pricing is now law and will take effect on July 1, 2026, applying to very large retailers under the Food and Grocery Code. Treasury Ministers
Political pressure intensified this week as Nationals leader David Littleproud argued the competition regulator should have stronger powers to tackle alleged unfair pricing by major supermarkets, a report said.
On the chart, Tuesday’s slide put the day’s low near A$20.55 in focus as a short-term support level — a price area where buyers have tended to step in. The A$21.11 intraday high now sits as a nearby resistance marker, where selling pressure can re-emerge.
But the next move hinges on macro data: a hotter-than-expected CPI print could harden rate expectations and keep pressure on consumer defensives, while a softer number could ease the yield backdrop and revive demand for staples. Regulatory headlines also risk swinging sentiment in a stock that has traded as a proxy for pricing power.
