Commodities Prices Today: Copper Hits Record, Gold Wavers, Natural Gas Surges

On Friday, 5 December 2025, global commodity markets delivered one of the most striking cross-asset snapshots of the year: industrial metals at or near record highs, natural gas posting explosive gains, oil grinding higher but still cheap by recent standards, and many agricultural and “soft” commodities slipping as supplies improve.

At the same time, major institutions such as the World Bank continue to forecast an overall downtrend in broad commodity indices in 2025–26, even as pockets like copper and gold defy the averages with outsized rallies. ^[1]

This wrap pulls together the latest prices, forecasts, and analyst commentary published on 5 December 2025, across energy, metals, grains, and soft commodities.

1. Key Commodities Price Snapshot – 5 December 2025

(All prices approximate end‑of‑day benchmarks on 5 December 2025.)

Energy

WTI crude oil: around $60 per barrel, modestly higher on the day and roughly 1% higher over the past month, but still well below its 2025 high above $80. ^[2]
Natural gas (US benchmark): about $5.3 per MMBtu, up more than 5% on the day, over 20% on the month, and roughly 70% year‑on‑year – one of the strongest trends in the entire commodity complex. ^[3]

Metals

Copper (LME 3‑month): near $11,600–11,700 per tonne, a fresh all‑time high, with prices up more than 30% in 2025. ^[4]
COMEX copper & futures activity: U.S. copper futures volumes climbed above 64,000 contracts with open interest just under 250,000, signaling active but slightly lighter positioning. ^[5]
COMEX gold: around $4,200 per ounce, not far from its October record above $4,350; silver near $58 per ounce, brushing against fresh highs. ^[6]
Aluminum: roughly $2,900 per tonne, up modestly on the day and more than 11% over the past month, supported by falling billet inventories in China. ^[7]

A recent cross‑asset “heatmap” highlights just how exceptional 2025 has been for metals: silver is up almost 75% year‑to‑date, gold about 50%, platinum more than 65%, palladium over 45%, and copper above 20%, putting metals at the top of the global performance tables. ^[8]

Agriculture & Soft Commodities

Wheat (U.S. futures): around 535–540 cents per bushel, down less than 1% on the day and roughly 0.5% week‑over‑week. ^[9]
Corn: December and March contracts around $4.37–4.45 per bushel, slightly softer on Friday and struggling to rally amid comfortable global stocks. ^[10]
Soybeans: near $11.05 per bushel, ending the week down nearly 3% and logging their weakest daily close of the period. ^[11]
Coffee (Arabica): roughly 404 cents per pound, after a month‑long climb but under pressure from a huge Brazilian crop. ^[12]
Sugar: about 14.8 cents per pound, slipping again and trading roughly a third below recent peaks. ^[13]
Cotton: around 63.9 cents per pound, slightly lower on the day. ^[14]

2. Energy Markets: Natural Gas Steals the Show, Oil Edges Higher

Oil: Range‑Bound but Supported

Oil prices gained modestly on 5 December, with WTI crude near $60 a barrel, up about 0.8% on the day and roughly 1% higher over the past month, though still far below its January peak near $81. ^[15]

CME and NYMEX futures data show solid but not explosive trading volumes and a slight dip in open interest – signs of a market that is firming but not yet in full‑blown bull mode. ^[16]

On the macro side:

Rising crude prices are helping support energy‑heavy equity indices such as Canada’s TSX, which hovered near record levels on Friday. ^[17]
The World Bank’s October 2025 outlook still projects overall energy prices trending lower into 2026 amid an expected oil surplus and sluggish global growth, suggesting any rallies may face headwinds from fundamentals. ^[18]

Natural Gas: The Standout Trend

Natural gas continues to be the star of the energy complex:

Prices rose more than 5% on 5 December alone to around $5.3 per MMBtu.
Over the past month, they’re up more than 20%, and roughly 73% higher than a year ago. ^[19]
Trend‑following models highlight gas as the most persistent bullish trend across major commodities, even as crude oil and refined products remain volatile and choppy. ^[20]

The drivers: tighter storage balances heading into what forecasters say could be a colder‑than‑normal December in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, ongoing LNG demand in Europe and Asia, and speculative money chasing momentum in an already tight market.

3. Metals: Copper’s Record Run and a “Historic Year” for the Complex

Copper: New Records and Aggressive Forecasts

Copper was the headline story on 5 December:

LME copper touched new all‑time highs above $11,700 per tonne, with intraday levels around $11,616, extending a rally of more than 30% in 2025. ^[21]
Analysts attribute the surge to a confluence of factors:
- Extremely low visible inventories on exchanges, with London warehouse stocks slipping below levels that historically trigger price spikes. ^[22]
- Disruptions at key mines in Indonesia, Chile, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. ^[23]
- Strong demand from the energy transition, AI data‑center build‑out, and electric vehicle adoption, all of which are wiring‑intensive themes. ^[24]

Strategists at large banks are turning increasingly bullish:

Citi raised its copper price outlook and now expects average prices near $13,000 per tonne in Q2 2026, referencing a looming global supply shortfall. ^[25]
Several commentaries emphasize that expected U.S. rate cuts next year could further support demand and speculative interest in industrial metals. ^[26]

U.S. futures data from COMEX show high trading volumes but slightly falling open interest, suggesting some profit‑taking even as prices push higher – a sign of a mature yet powerful uptrend. ^[27]

Aluminum and Other Base Metals

While copper grabs the headlines, aluminum quietly advanced:

Prices climbed to about $2,909 per tonne on 5 December, up about 0.3% on the day, 2% over the month, and more than 11% over the past year. ^[28]
Chinese billet inventories in key regions such as Guangdong and Wuxi fell to around 76,000 tonnes, down 1,500 tonnes from the prior reading – a modest but supportive signal for prices. ^[29]

Other industrial metals (like zinc and nickel) are generally firmer versus early 2025 levels but have not matched copper’s spectacular breakout, leaving the red metal as the clear bellwether for the industrial cycle.

4. Precious Metals: Gold Pauses Near Highs as Views Diverge

Gold spent the week consolidating just below record levels:

COMEX gold hovered around $4,200 per ounce on 5 December, not far from the October peak above $4,350. Silver traded near $58 per ounce, close to fresh all‑time highs set earlier in the week. ^[30]

Yet analysts are split on what happens next:

A widely read Indian market note described near‑term gold action as “weak,” with a recommended “sell on rise” strategy for traders on the domestic MCX exchange – essentially treating rallies as opportunities to reduce exposure in the short run. ^[31]
In contrast, a technical analysis piece published on 5 December argues that gold has broken out of a decade‑long price channel, opening the door to targets near $5,000 per ounce over a multi‑year horizon if current patterns persist. ^[32]
Meanwhile, a Reuters Breakingviews column calls gold’s recent behavior “bubble‑like,” but suggests it may reflect a deeper paradigm shift driven by structurally higher public debt, persistent geopolitical tension, and robust central‑bank buying. ^[33]

Taken together, the message is clear: gold is no longer a sleepy hedge, but a central battlefield for macro narratives – from inflation and real interest rates to currency debasement and geopolitical risk.

5. Agricultural Commodities: Grains Mixed, Soybeans Under Pressure

Wheat: Sideways in a Narrow Band

Wheat prices continue to drift in a tight range:

Benchmark futures ended the week near 535–540 cents per bushel, fractionally lower on both the day and the week. ^[34]
U.S. Wheat Associates reported that major export‑class futures (soft red winter, hard red winter, and hard red spring) moved only a few cents either way over the week, reflecting balanced global supply and demand for now. ^[35]

AP futures reports also show rising open interest in wheat, hinting at fresh positioning even within this narrow price range. ^[36]

Corn: Comfortable Stocks Cap the Upside

Corn futures were slightly weaker on 5 December:

March contracts closed around $4.44 per bushel, down a couple of cents on the day; December futures traded near $4.37. ^[37]
A fundamentals piece from the High Plains Journal notes that the 2025–26 U.S. ending stocks estimate sits above 2.1 billion bushels, a level that historically makes it hard for corn prices to sustain strong rallies. ^[38]

Traders are now focused on the upcoming December USDA WASDE report, which is expected to fine‑tune demand estimates and provide early indications for 2026 production, especially in South America. ^[39]

Soybeans: The Weak Link Among the Major Grains

Soybeans were the soft spot in Friday’s session:

Prices finished near $11.05 per bushel, down almost 3% for the week, with 5 December marking the weakest daily close of the period. ^[40]
Ag‑market commentaries point to:
- Speculative traders cutting long positions, pushing January contracts to a one‑month low. ^[41]
- Ongoing pressure from large South American crop expectations. ^[42]
- Negative trade headlines (including a U.S. statement ruling out a near‑term China deal) that hit soybeans first and dragged corn and wheat lower intraday. ^[43]

In short, while wheat is treading water and corn is constrained by ample stocks, soybeans are bearing the brunt of macro and trade risk.

6. Softs and Food Commodities: Coffee Boom, Sugar Slide, Food Prices Easing

Coffee: Big Brazilian Crop, Volatile Prices, Bearish Forecasts

Coffee markets are wrestling with surging Brazilian output:

Market coverage on 5 December highlights a record robusta crop in Brazil, with the state agency Conab lifting its 2025 production forecast. ^[44]
This wave of supply is pushing prices lower:
- Robusta prices dropped about 1.25% on the day and more than 5% on the week.
- Arabica prices slipped around 1.5%, to roughly 374.6 cents per pound in some references, even after a strong year‑to‑date run. ^[45]
A dedicated coffee forecast service pegs current Arabica prices near 404 cents per pound, but projects a one‑month pullback to about 388 cents and a much deeper decline over 12 months, toward roughly 288 cents, assuming supply remains robust and demand normalizes. ^[46]

Earlier in November, the removal of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee further contributed to downward pressure on global coffee prices – another reminder that policy shifts and bumper crops can quickly puncture commodity rallies. ^[47]

Sugar and the Global Food Price Picture

Sugar prices are also under pressure:

Benchmark futures slipped to about 14.8 cents per pound on 5 December and are now roughly 32% below their recent highs, according to Trading Economics data. ^[48]
A daily softs report notes that sugar futures fell nearly 6% in a single session, marking their lowest level in around a year, with the move tied to favorable crop conditions and improving global supply. ^[49]

The same report cites FAO figures showing global food prices falling for a third consecutive month in November, with declines across most food staples except cereals. ^[50]

Taken together, coffee and sugar illustrate a broader theme: food inflation pressures are easing in many categories, even as energy and metals remain elevated.

7. Beyond Today: What the Latest Forecasts Say About Commodities in 2026

World Bank: Broad Commodity Index Likely to Drift Lower

The World Bank’s October 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook sets the baseline macro view:

It expects broad commodity prices to fall by around 7% in 2025 and another 7% in 2026, taking the overall index to its lowest level in six years. ^[51]
The report points to weak global growth, an anticipated oil surplus, and ongoing policy uncertainty as key drags. ^[52]

This top‑down view implies that today’s strong spots (like copper and natural gas) may eventually face gravitational pull from slower demand – unless structural constraints keep them in their own orbit.

Metals: Still the Standout in Most Scenario Analyses

By contrast, sector‑specific analyses stay bullish on metals:

The multi‑asset “2025 is a historic year for metals” review ranks precious and base metals as the top‑performing major asset group globally, underscoring strong and diversified demand. ^[53]
Copper‑focused reports from Citi and other banks emphasize structural deficits and strategic demand from electrification and AI infrastructure, leading to projections of record average prices in 2026. ^[54]
Gold‑oriented technical work maps out upside counts toward $5,000 per ounce, while macro commentators warn that bubble‑like behavior could also mean elevated downside risk if real yields rise again. ^[55]

Agriculture and Softs: Weather, War, and Policy Will Decide

On the farm and food side, forecasts remain more finely balanced:

Grain analysts are closely watching December and January weather – some climate models hint at frigid conditions that could affect winter wheat and logistics, though the impact has not yet been priced aggressively. ^[56]
The USDA’s December WASDE update next week will tweak demand numbers and early 2026 production expectations, helping set the tone for corn and soybean pricing into the new year. ^[57]
Ukraine’s grain exports remain constrained by repeated attacks on Black Sea port infrastructure, cutting corn export volumes sharply versus last season and adding a layer of geopolitical risk premium to forward curves. ^[58]
In softs, enlarged Brazilian coffee and sugar output, along with policy decisions such as tariff changes, are expected to keep prices volatile but biased lower in many base‑case scenarios. ^[59]

8. What Today’s Moves Mean for Traders, Businesses, and Consumers

For traders and investors

Volatility is highly sector‑specific. Metals and natural gas show strong momentum and large swings; grains and many softs are quieter or trending lower. Position sizing and risk controls should reflect this divergence.
Divergent forecasts call for scenario planning, not certainty. Gold and copper feature both bullish structural narratives and warnings of froth, so it may be prudent to test portfolios against both higher‑ and lower‑price paths. ^[60]

For producers and industrial users

Hedging costs are rising in metals and gas. With prices elevated and volatility high, producers may find forward selling attractive, while consumers might look to lock in portions of future needs where budgets are sensitive to upside shocks. ^[61]
Agricultural users see some relief. Softer wheat, corn, soybean, coffee, and sugar prices, combined with falling global food indices, offer an opportunity to reassess procurement strategies and contract tenors. ^[62]

For households and consumers

Energy and food inflation are decoupling. Higher natural gas and still‑firm oil prices keep utility and fuel bills in focus, even as many food staples become cheaper on global markets. ^[63]
Local retail prices may adjust slowly, but the direction of travel in international markets points to less pressure at the grocery store than at the gas pump.

9. Final Thoughts: A Two‑Speed Commodities World

The data and analysis released on 5 December 2025 paint a picture of a two‑speed commodities world:

Metals and energy, led by copper, gold, and natural gas, remain in powerful uptrends, underpinned by structural themes, tight supply, and macro hedging demand.
Grains and softs, from wheat and soybeans to coffee and sugar, are grappling with good harvests, high stocks, and policy shifts that are pushing prices lower and easing global food‑price pressures.

Overlaying it all, the World Bank’s forecast of declining overall commodity prices sits uneasily alongside record highs in key bellwethers – a reminder that indices can fall even while specific markets remain red‑hot. ^[64]