NEW YORK — Commodities are ending the year with a classic cross-asset tug-of-war: energy prices are bouncing off multi-year lows on fresh geopolitical risk, precious metals are extending a historic run as rate-cut expectations return, and agriculture remains weighed down by abundant supply and shifting Black Sea headlines.
On Wednesday, December 17, 2025, the market’s “risk premium” and “rate premium” both showed up at once. Crude rallied after the U.S. announced a new Venezuela-related move, while gold and silver strengthened on softer labor signals and renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep cutting in 2026. [1]
Commodities prices snapshot: key US-traded benchmarks
Prices move fast, especially in thin year-end liquidity. The levels below reflect widely followed benchmarks trading during the US session and around midday in global markets:
- Brent crude: around $59.91/barrel [2]
- WTI crude: around $56.20/barrel [3]
- US natural gas (NYMEX): around $4.011/mmBtu [4]
- Gold (spot): around $4,335/oz; COMEX gold futures around $4,367/oz [5]
- Silver (spot): near $65.55/oz after a record $66.52/oz [6]
- Copper (COMEX): around $5.42/lb [7]
- CBOT wheat: around $5.08½/bushel [8]
- CBOT corn: around $4.37½/bushel [9]
- CBOT soybeans: around $10.62/bushel [10]
- ICE arabica coffee: around $3.514/lb [11]
- ICE raw sugar: around 14.75 cents/lb [12]
- NY cocoa: around $6,066/ton [13]
Oil prices jump as Venezuela risk returns—despite “surplus” fears
Oil’s story today is less about demand and more about headline-driven supply risk.
Crude rose after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered what he called a “complete blockade” of sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela—an escalation that traders read as adding uncertainty to a market already debating whether 2026 will bring a surplus. [14]
At the same time, the rally ran into familiar headwinds:
- Implementation remains unclear, and markets hate uncertainty almost as much as they price it. [15]
- Venezuela’s output is not huge globally—about ~1% of global supply—but the flows are concentrated among specific buyers, which can amplify localized disruptions. [16]
- The prior session’s selloff underscores the bigger theme: oil had settled near five-year lows on signs of progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks, a development that could eventually loosen constraints on Russian supply. [17]
US inventory data also added nuance: crude stocks fell, but fuel inventories rose, limiting the upside for crude even as geopolitics lifted sentiment. According to the EIA figures cited in the day’s reporting, crude inventories fell ~1.3 million barrels to 424.4 million, while gasoline stocks rose ~4.8 million and distillate inventories rose ~1.7 million. [18]
Market takeaway: Oil is trying to rebound on risk headlines, but the broader macro tape still reads “fragile demand + rising supply debate.” That tension is likely to keep WTI and Brent volatile into year-end.
Natural gas rebounds on LNG demand—even as weather turns less supportive
US natural gas prices bounced, but the underlying setup remains a battle between record-ish supply and export-driven demand, with winter weather acting as the swing factor.
The January NYMEX contract rose to around $4.011/mmBtu, supported by near-record flows to LNG export plants(about 18.6 bcfd so far this month, up from November’s record pace) and an uptick in next-week demand expectations. [19]
However, the same update also highlighted why gas has been so choppy:
- Lower 48 output is still extremely high (around 109.5 bcfd so far in December). [20]
- Forecasts called for mostly warmer-than-normal weather through Jan. 1, typically bearish for heating demand. [21]
- LSEG projected demand (including exports) falling from ~145.1 bcfd this week to ~131.1 bcfd next week, a sharp week-to-week shift that can whipsaw prices in winter. [22]
Globally, gas benchmarks were also softer, reflecting the mild-winter theme and renewed hopes around Ukraine diplomacy. [23]
Market takeaway: LNG is increasingly the “floor” story for US natural gas, but weather remains the “ceiling” story—and warm forecasts can cap rallies quickly.
Gold holds firm, silver hits record: rate-cut expectations power the metals trade
If oil is trading geopolitics, precious metals are trading central banks—plural.
Silver surged to a fresh record, briefly topping $66/oz and hitting an all-time high around $66.52/oz, while gold strengthened alongside it. [24]
Today’s catalysts were unusually aligned:
- Softer US labor signals revived the idea that the Fed can keep easing. The market focus was on a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6% (highest since Sept. 2021) even as payrolls increased. [25]
- Metals also drew support from geopolitics (including the Venezuela headline), reinforcing gold’s role as a “safety bid” even in a year when equities have often been strong. [26]
- Analysts highlighted rotation inside the precious complex—money shifting from gold into silver and the white metals. One strategist said $70/oz is the next “logical target” in the near term for silver. [27]
Investors are now watching the next major US inflation prints, including CPI and PCE data later this week, for confirmation on the 2026 rate path. [28]
Gold’s 2026 forecast: $5,000 enters the mainstream conversation
A separate deep-dive analysis published today captured what’s changed in this cycle: gold’s rally isn’t being framed as a one-off panic hedge anymore, but increasingly as a structural allocation trade.
Key points from the latest institutional outlooks:
- Analysts at JP Morgan, Bank of America, and Metals Focus see gold reaching $5,000/oz in 2026 (with different paths and pacing). [29]
- JP Morgan estimates that to keep prices flat, gold needs roughly 350 metric tons of quarterly central bank and investment demand, and forecasts demand averaging around 585 tons per quarter in 2026. [30]
- Forecast ranges vary: one major bank sees about $4,500 by mid-2026, while another model points to averages around $4,225 in 2026—suggesting upside remains, but the pace could slow after an outsized run. [31]
Market takeaway: Even if 2026 brings more modest gains, forecasters are increasingly treating the gold bid as “sticky,” anchored by central bank diversification and broader investor participation. [32]
How commodities are feeding into the US stock market today
Commodity swings weren’t isolated to futures pits—they showed up in sector performance.
In early US trading, energy stocks outperformed, with the S&P energy sector up on the day as crude rebounded. Reuters noted energy was among the stronger S&P subsectors during Wednesday’s session, tying the move to the jump in crude prices following the Venezuela headline. [33]
That matters because, into year-end, investors are watching whether 2026 becomes a “lower oil, higher metals” setup—an environment that can reshape the leadership inside US equities (energy versus materials, cyclicals versus defensives).
Grains: wheat stays heavy on supply, peace-talk headlines, and fund selling
In US agriculture, grains remained under pressure—especially wheat—amid a classic bearish mix: good weather, big harvest expectations, and easing geopolitical risk.
Chicago wheat fell for a fourth straight session, trading around $5.08½/bushel, after dipping to an eight-week low the day before. [34]
The drivers are straightforward—and stubborn:
- Southern Hemisphere supply is flooding into the export market. Argentina’s exchange raised its wheat production estimate to a record ~27.7 million metric tons, while Australia is tracking toward one of its biggest harvests. [35]
- Progress in Russia–Ukraine peace talks is being treated as a potential risk-reducer for Black Sea commodity flows, which can pressure wheat’s geopolitical premium. [36]
- Corn steadied around $4.37½/bushel, and soybeans hovered around $10.62/bushel, with traders citing competition effects (cheaper wheat in feed) and still-soft export demand. [37]
Market takeaway: Until weather turns threatening or demand accelerates, grain markets look positioned to trade “heavy,” with rallies attracting selling.
Soft commodities: coffee slides, cocoa recovers, sugar remains under pressure
Softs delivered a mixed tape:
- Arabica coffee slid to near three-month lows around $3.514/lb, with dealers pointing to increased producer selling and supportive weather in Brazil that improves the 2026 production outlook. [38]
- Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee sales reached ~69% of expected output by Dec. 10, according to Safras & Mercado, with buying picking up after the US removed tariffs on coffee (as cited in the day’s report). [39]
- Cocoa extended its rebound (NY around $6,066/ton), with the market still watching Ivory Coast supply signals. The same update cited expectations for only a modest surplus—about 80,000 tons—in the 2025/26 season. [40]
- Sugar slipped again (around 14.75 cents/lb), and traders also noted a sharp fall in Brazil’s sugar production in the second half of November. [41]
Market takeaway: Coffee is trading “supply comfort,” cocoa is trading “West Africa risk,” and sugar is still trapped in a low-price narrative that will depend heavily on Brazil and policy signals from major producers.
Industrial commodities: iron ore steadies even as China’s steel output cools
Away from the US exchanges, one of the most important demand signals for the global commodities complex is China’s steel chain—and today’s data/analysis highlighted a notable divergence:
- China’s steel output fell to 69.87 million tons in November (down 10.9% year over year) and is projected to land around 964 million tons for 2025, the lowest since 2018. [42]
- Yet iron ore imports are on track to hit a record, with prices holding up—iron ore futures were cited around $106.25/ton in recent trading. [43]
The analysis frames it as restocking plus stimulus optimism—but also warns inventories are rising, which could limit how long import strength can outpace weaker steel output. [44]
What to watch next: the catalysts that could move commodities into year-end
With 2025 ending and 2026 positioning starting, commodities traders are circling a short list of potential market movers:
- US inflation data (CPI, then PCE): critical for rate-cut expectations that drive gold, silver, and the dollar. [45]
- Energy inventories and refinery runs: crude is responding not just to geopolitics but also to product builds and seasonal demand. [46]
- Weather model shifts: especially for natural gas and, increasingly, for agricultural markets. [47]
- Russia–Ukraine diplomacy: showing up simultaneously in crude risk premium and wheat’s Black Sea premium. [48]
- 2026 “surplus vs. disruption” debate in oil: even on a day when geopolitics lifts crude, macro forecasts still lean toward rising inventories into 2026. [49]
Bottom line: Today’s commodity tape shows a market transitioning from “what happened in 2025” to “what could define 2026.” Energy is trying to stabilize off lows but remains hostage to supply headlines and demand skepticism; precious metals are behaving like a structural trade; and agricultural and soft commodity markets are still wrestling with the most unforgiving factor of all—supply. [50]
References
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