Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) Share Price, News and Stock Forecast as of 11 December 2025

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the country’s largest lender by market value, is ending 2025 in a very different mood to the euphoric highs of mid‑year.

As of 11 December 2025, CBA shares are trading at around A$152.8, after closing at A$152.82 on 11 December according to latest end‑of‑day data. ^[1] That puts the CBA share price roughly 20% below its June peak near A$192, and slightly down over the past 12 months despite record profits and growing dividends. ^[2]

At the same time, the stock still trades on premium valuations – a trailing price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio around 25x and a price‑to‑book multiple above 3x, levels well above global banking peers. ^[3] This tension between lofty valuation and rising fundamental risks is now the central story for CBA.

1. Where CBA Shares Stand on 11 December 2025

Based on recent trading data:

Latest close (11 Dec 2025): A$152.82
Previous close (10 Dec 2025): A$153.82, implying a daily fall of about 0.65%. ^[4]
52‑week range: roughly A$140–A$192 per share. ^[5]
1‑year share price performance: around ‑2.4%. ^[6]

Valuation metrics (trailing, as of 10–11 December):

P/E ratio: ~25.4x
Price‑to‑book: ~3.3x
Dividend yield (cash): about 3.1–3.2%, or roughly 4.5% grossed up for franking credits, based on a full‑year dividend of A$4.85 per share. ^[7]

By historical standards for banks, these are rich multiples. Reuters has repeatedly described CBA as “one of the most expensive banks in the world”, with its valuation more than double the global banking average on key metrics. ^[8]

The price has also fallen sharply from mid‑year highs:

In August, after CBA reported record annual profit, the share price sold off by about 5% on the day. ^[9]
By early December, coverage from outlets such as The Motley Fool highlighted that the CBA share price had dropped about 19% since June 2025, reflecting investor concern around margins, costs and valuation. ^[10]

The picture is of a premium‑priced franchise whose share price has deflated from exuberant levels but still sits well above peer valuations.

2. Record FY25 Profit – and Why the Market Still Sold CBA

CBA’s financial year 2025 (FY25) results, released in August, looked stellar on almost every headline number:

Cash net profit after tax (NPAT): A$10.25 billion, up 4% on FY24, a record for the bank. ^[11]
Statutory NPAT: A$10.13 billion. ^[12]
Net interest margin (NIM): 2.08%, about 9 basis points higher than FY24. ^[13]
Dividend: A record A$4.85 per share, fully franked, up 4% on the prior year, with a payout ratio of 79% of cash earnings. ^[14]
Capital: Common Equity Tier 1 ratio of 12.3% (APRA), comfortably above regulatory minima, plus an ongoing A$1 billion share buyback. ^[15]
Loan book: Home lending up about 6% and business lending around 11% year‑on‑year, outpacing system growth. ^[16]

Despite this, investors were underwhelmed. On the FY25 result day, CBA shares fell around 5–6%, dragging the broader ASX lower from record highs. ^[17]

Fund managers and analysts pointed to three main issues:

No major earnings upgrade. Profits were strong but mostly in line with consensus, so there was no positive surprise to justify already‑stretched valuations. ^[18]
Margin and competition pressure. While NIM edged higher for the full year, competition for deposits and mortgages intensified, with CBA’s update and post‑result commentary flagging that this tailwind could fade. ^[19]
Higher costs by design. CBA deliberately increased operating expenses – particularly in technology and risk – which will weigh on short‑term profitability. Montgomery Investment Management summarised the result as “a study in strategic restraint”: CEO Matt Comyn chose to invest heavily in tech and capability rather than maximise near‑term earnings, pushing the cost‑to‑income ratio above 45%. ^[20]

From a long‑term investor’s perspective, the balance sheet, credit quality and dividend profile all look robust. But the market is no longer willing to pay any price for that stability.

3. The November Trading Update: Margins Bite, Shares Slide

The first major update after the full‑year result was CBA’s September‑quarter (Q1 FY26) trading update, released in mid‑November.

Key points from that update, as reported by CBA and Reuters: ^[21]

Quarterly cash profit: A$2.6 billion, up about 2% year‑on‑year.
Net interest margin: lower than recent periods, pressured by:
- Customers switching deposits into higher‑yielding products;
- Strong growth in lower‑margin institutional deposits;
- Earlier cuts to the RBA cash rate.
Operating costs: up roughly 4% as wage inflation and technology spending rose.

The market reaction was swift:

CBA shares fell nearly 5% intraday on the update and closed down around 6.6% to A$163.40, making it one of the worst performers on the ASX 200 that day. ^[22]
Ord Minnett’s John Milroy highlighted investor discomfort with CBA declining to disclose the precise NIM figure, which fuelled speculation that margin compression could be worse than expected. ^[23]

The takeaway: earnings are still growing, but the easy phase of rate‑driven margin expansion is over. In a lower‑rate environment with intense competition, protecting NIM while absorbing higher tech and compliance costs is proving difficult.

4. Fresh Regulatory Scrutiny: A$792,000 CDR Penalty

On 9 December 2025, CBA disclosed that it had paid a A$792,000 penalty after the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) alleged breaches of the Consumer Data Right (CDR) Rules. ^[24]

According to the ACCC and Reuters:

CBA received four infringement notices for failing to enable data sharing for some business and partnership accounts, limiting customers’ access to CDR‑enabled services.
The penalty is the largest imposed so far for a CDR breach and follows a similar fine against National Australia Bank earlier in the year. ^[25]
CBA said it identified and self‑reported the issue, accepted the findings, and will contact affected customers regarding possible remediation. ^[26]

Financially, the penalty is immaterial relative to CBA’s A$10+ billion in annual profit. But it reinforces two themes that matter for the CBA share price:

Rising regulatory and compliance risk in digital banking and open data.
The cost and reputational stakes involved in CBA’s push to be a technology‑led bank.

5. Macro Backdrop: Cooling Jobs, Stubborn Inflation, and the RBA

CBA’s outlook is tightly tied to the Australian economy and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

Fresh data released on 11 December 2025 showed: ^[27]

Net employment fell by 23,100 jobs in November, the sharpest decline in nine months.
Unemployment remained at 4.3%, as the participation rate dipped slightly.
Annual jobs growth has slowed to 1.3%, well below population growth.

This suggests a cooling labour market, which could reduce pressure for near‑term rate hikes, but inflation remains sticky:

Headline inflation has risen for four consecutive months to 3.8% in October.
The RBA’s trimmed mean measure is running at 3.3%, still above the 2–3% target band. ^[28]

The RBA held the cash rate at 3.6% at its latest meeting and signalled that further easing is off the table while inflation is uncomfortably high. Market pricing now implies a non‑trivial chance of rate hikes in 2026, despite three cuts earlier this year. ^[29]

For CBA, that mix is double‑edged:

Higher‑for‑longer rates support margins on capital and some deposits.
But they also pressure borrowers, especially in housing, and may slow credit growth.

In testimony to Parliament in November, CEO Matt Comyn argued that housing credit growth is already too strong and contributing to rising property prices. CBA would prefer a somewhat slower pace of home loan growth for long‑term financial stability, even though the bank benefits from higher mortgage volumes. ^[30]

6. CBA’s AI and Technology Bet: Short‑Term Pain, Long‑Term Ambition

One of the most important – but harder‑to‑value – developments for CBA in 2025 has been its aggressive investment in artificial intelligence and digital capability.

Key milestones this year include:

Anthropic partnership and equity investment (March 2025):
CBA expanded its partnership with AI safety and research company Anthropic, including a direct investment. The bank aims to deploy Anthropic’s Claude models in areas like customer service, fraud detection and operations. ^[31]
Strategic partnership with OpenAI (August 2025):
CBA announced a multi‑year partnership with OpenAI, giving its engineers and staff access to advanced generative AI tools and co‑developing banking‑specific use cases. ^[32]
ChatGPT Enterprise across the workforce (late 2025):
OpenAI disclosed that CBA is rolling out ChatGPT Enterprise to nearly 50,000 employees, embedding AI into day‑to‑day work across the bank. ^[33]
National AI skills and small‑business training initiative:
In a broader “OpenAI for Australia” program, CBA is working with OpenAI to deliver AI training to up to 1 million small business customers, positioning itself as a digital partner, not just a lender. ^[34]

Montgomery’s analysis of CBA’s FY25 results emphasised that this technology push is deliberate and expensive. Comyn is effectively accepting a higher cost‑to‑income ratio today – hiring thousands of engineers and lifting annual tech investment by hundreds of millions – to build what CBA hopes will be a durable digital advantage. ^[35]

For shareholders, the bet is straightforward but uncertain:

If AI investments translate into higher productivity, better risk management and superior customer experiences, CBA may justify a persistent valuation premium.
If the benefits are slower or smaller than expected, investors may question why they are paying a tech‑like multiple for a regulated bank.

7. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets: Premium Quality, Bearish Consensus

Despite CBA’s scale, profitability and technological ambition, sell‑side analysts remain notably cautious.

Two large aggregators summarise sentiment as follows:

7.1 Investing.com: “Strong Sell” with Double‑Digit Downside

Investing.com’s compiled broker data (14 analysts) currently shows: ^[36]

Consensus rating: Strong Sell
Breakdown: 0 Buy, 0 Hold, 14 Sell
Average 12‑month price target:A$121.36
Target range:
- High: A$146.00
- Low: A$96.07

Compared with the current price near A$153, that average target implies around 20–25% downside over the next year, depending on the exact reference price.

7.2 Fintel: Similar Downside, Very Weak Analyst Sentiment

Fintel’s analysis of CBA highlights: ^[37]

Average one‑year price target:A$125.38
Target range: A$97.03 (low) to A$153.30 (high), based on data as of 6 December 2025.
Analyst Sentiment Score:1.8 out of 100, indicating a strongly negative consensus.
Valuation metrics:
- P/E: 25.4x
- Price‑to‑book: 3.26x
- Dividend yield: 3.15%
- Beta: 0.73 (relatively low volatility versus the market).

The message from traditional broker research is clear: CBA is widely viewed as a high‑quality business trading at too high a price. Most analysts expect either modest share price declines or, at best, low returns dominated by dividends.

8. Alternative Views: AI‑Driven Forecasts and Fund Manager Perspectives

While the mainstream broker consensus leans heavily bearish on valuation grounds, not all commentary is negative.

AI‑based price forecasts

AI‑driven platforms such as Meyka – which uses machine‑learning models on market and alternative data – have taken a more optimistic view:

In a 4 December analysis, Meyka highlighted CBA’s P/E of roughly 25x, acknowledging it is high versus sector averages but argued that it reflects strong market positioning. It cited a one‑year forecast price around A$185.50, substantially above today’s levels. ^[38]
A 6 December piece reported that CBA gained about 0.65% on the day to close at A$154.21, describing the outlook as “cautiously optimistic” and rating the stock a Buy based on discounted cash‑flow modelling. ^[39]

These AI forecasts are not regulated research and should be treated as one more input rather than a definitive view. But they underscore that some data‑driven models see CBA’s growth, dividends and balance sheet as capable of supporting a still‑higher share price.

Fund managers still like the franchise

Local investor commentary has also been nuanced:

The Australian Financial Review recently reported that, despite an estimated A$25 billion wipeout in CBA’s market value during the recent sell‑off, many fund managers still see it as the “premier bank” in the country, favouring its franchise quality over cheaper peers. ^[40]
Montgomery and other active managers acknowledge valuation risk, but argue that CBA’s conservative balance sheet, strong technology platform and market dominance justify some premium. ^[41]

In short, the debate is not about whether CBA is a good bank – almost everyone agrees that it is. The debate is how much investors should pay for it in a world of slowing growth, tight regulation and rapid technological change.

9. Key Drivers for the CBA Share Price in 2026

Looking ahead from 11 December 2025, several forces are likely to dominate the CBA share price story.

9.1 Earnings growth vs. valuation compression

If earnings stay broadly flat to mildly positive – say low single‑digit growth – while CBA continues to trade on mid‑20s P/E multiples, the implied long‑run return is limited. Any disappointment on profit, margin or credit quality could trigger further de‑rating towards more typical bank multiples in the high‑teens or low‑20s.

Analyst targets in the A$120–130 range essentially assume some valuation compression and modest earnings growth, not an earnings collapse. ^[42]

9.2 Net interest margin and deposit competition

The November trading update showed that deposit switching and competition are eroding NIM, even in a relatively supportive rate environment. ^[43]

Upside scenario:

If the RBA holds or slowly raises rates while competition stabilises, CBA could protect or slightly expand margins, offsetting higher costs.

Downside scenario:

If funding costs rise faster than asset yields or the bank is forced to cut loan rates to maintain market share, margins could shrink, undermining profit growth.

9.3 Credit quality and housing risk

So far, credit quality has remained benign:

Loan impairment expense in FY25 was just 7 basis points, with strong provision coverage and most home‑loan customers ahead on repayments. ^[44]

But CBA has the largest mortgage book in the country, and the CEO has already warned that housing credit growth may be running too hot for comfort. ^[45] A sharper slowdown in the economy or a property downturn would likely hit CBA harder than more diversified lenders.

9.4 Technology execution risk

CBA is committing billions of dollars to AI, cloud and digital platforms. If those projects:

Deliver cost savings and better customer economics, investors may be willing to keep paying a premium multiple.
Overrun budgets, face regulatory hurdles or fail to gain traction, the market may decide that CBA should be priced more like a traditional bank, not a tech‑infused one.

10. Bottom Line: Premium Bank, Narrower Margin for Error

As of 11 December 2025, CBA sits at an interesting crossroads:

Fundamentals: record profits, strong capital, solid credit quality and a reliable fully‑franked dividend stream. ^[46]
Valuation: still elevated at around 25x earnings and 3x book, even after a 20% retreat from mid‑year highs. ^[47]
Sentiment: mainstream analysts are overwhelmingly negative on the stock’s valuation, while AI‑based models and some fund managers retain a more optimistic stance. ^[48]
Strategy: CBA is leaning hard into AI and digital banking, taking near‑term cost pain to try to secure a long‑term edge. ^[49]

For prospective and existing shareholders, the question is less “Is CBA a good bank?” and more “How much of that quality is already in the price?”

If the Australian economy navigates a soft landing, margins hold up and CBA’s technology investments begin to show tangible benefits, today’s price could look reasonable in hindsight. If earnings disappoint or the macro environment deteriorates, the bank’s valuation premium gives it more room to fall than cheaper peers.