Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) Share Price After the Bell 12 December 2025: What Drove the Jump, Analyst Forecasts, and What to Watch Before the Next Open

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) closed up 2.11% on 12 Dec 2025. Here’s the after-the-bell recap, latest analyst targets, and key catalysts to watch.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) finished Friday’s session with a decisive bounce. After the market close on Friday, 12 December 2025, CBA shares settled at A$155.96, up A$3.22 (+2.11%) on the day, with an intraday range of A$153.02 to A$156.38. ^[1]

That move put CBA back in the spotlight at exactly the moment investors are re-litigating the “big question” hanging over Australia’s largest bank: is CBA’s quality worth its premium valuation—especially as the interest-rate narrative keeps wobbling?

Below is a detailed, publication-ready “after the bell” breakdown of what mattered on 12.12.2025, the current forecast picture, and what investors should keep on their radar heading into the next tradable session.

CBA share price recap (after the bell, 12.12.2025)

CBA ended the session at A$155.96 (+2.11%), after opening at A$153.49 and pushing to A$156.38 during the day. Volume was roughly 1.7 million shares, broadly in line with typical daily activity for a mega-cap name of its size. ^[2]

The important texture of the day wasn’t just the green close—it was the “bid came back” tone across the financials complex, with the whole bank cohort participating.

What happened in the broader ASX on Friday, 12 December 2025

Friday’s session had a clear risk-rotation flavour:

The ASX 200 closed at 8,697.3 (+1.23%), hitting a four-week high, with materials leading as gold names surged. ^[3]
Financials also rallied, and CBA was one of the stronger big-bank performers on the day. ^[4]

In the “market tape” style commentary from the session, MarketIndex explicitly flagged that banks and miners powered the index higher, with Financials +1.54% during the day and CBA “catching a bid.” ^[5]

The takeaway: CBA’s move reads as primarily sector-and-index driven on the day, rather than the market repricing a fresh, CBA-specific announcement at 2pm.

Was there CBA-specific news on 12.12.2025?

Here’s the key point that helps explain the shape of the move:

There was no obvious, price-sensitive ASX announcement from CBA published on 12 December 2025.
The ASX’s list of company announcements published that day does not show CBA among the issuers releasing news on 12/12/2025. ^[6]

A separate announcements feed tracking CBA’s recent ASX releases shows the most recent items clustered earlier in December (e.g., a “259C” notice and various holdings/Appendix filings), rather than something fresh dated 12 December. ^[7]

So while CBA certainly moved, the day doesn’t look like it was driven by a new CBA headline. Instead, the evidence points to:

macro + positioning, and
a rebound in financials after weakness, and
index leadership returning to “big liquid defensives” (banks) alongside miners.

The macro backdrop: why “rates + risk mood” still matters for CBA

For bank stocks, the market’s rate expectations and growth fears tend to show up as pressure on (or relief for):

net interest margin (NIM),
credit growth, and
loan impairment risk.

Two macro threads were circulating into and around Friday’s session:

Global risk sentiment stayed choppy, with investors parsing the profitability of AI-related spending and reacting to major tech volatility, while also leaning on the idea that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s path could be less hawkish than feared. ^[8]
Australian labour market data earlier in the week signalled cooling, a factor that can influence the domestic rate outlook and, by extension, bank valuation narratives. Reuters reported Australian employment fell in November and framed it as potentially easing pressure for a near-term hike. ^[9]

CBA is especially sensitive to this “rates narrative” because it’s both:

the most widely held and often used as a proxy for Australian equity risk, and
the bank that typically carries the largest valuation premium, making it more exposed when investors decide they want cheaper banks instead.

Analyst forecasts and consensus view (as of the 12.12.2025 close)

Here’s the part long-term investors obsess over (and short-term traders can’t ignore): the street is still not in love with CBA at this price.

MarketScreener’s consensus snapshot (displayed alongside the 12 Dec close) shows:

Consensus rating: SELL
Number of analysts: 14
Average target price: A$121.36
High target: A$146.00
Low target: A$96.07
Implied downside vs A$155.96: -22.19% (to the average target) ^[10]

That gap between price and consensus target is the central tension in the CBA story right now:

The market is paying up for scale, deposit franchise strength, and perceived resilience,
while analysts continue to argue the valuation bakes in near-perfect execution in an environment where margins are contested and growth is not explosive.

Valuation debate: “premium bank” or “priced for perfection”?

A 12 December 2025 commentary from Firstlinks captures the valuation argument in blunt terms: from its late-June high, CBA had fallen about 20% (bear-market territory by the usual definition), and while its P/E multiple compressed, the bank still appeared expensive relative to global peers. ^[11]

Even after pullbacks, CBA often ends up in a strange place:

Too expensive for value investors looking at raw multiples,
Too liquid and “must-own” for institutions running benchmark-aware portfolios,
Too core for many retirees/income investors to easily abandon (even if the price is spicy).

Friday’s +2.11% pop doesn’t “solve” that argument—it just shows that buyers are still willing to step in aggressively when the sector mood turns.

The fundamentals investors are anchoring to right now

While 12 December itself didn’t bring a new CBA earnings release, recent fundamentals still frame how investors interpret every rally:

In its first-quarter update earlier in the reporting cycle, Reuters noted CBA reported A$2.6 billion in cash profit (July–September) and flagged ongoing pressure from competition and lower interest rates on margins—even as profit ticked up slightly. ^[12]

That’s not a “crisis” statement. It’s a reminder that in a world where mortgage pricing is competitive and deposit costs matter, big-bank earnings can become a grind—especially if rate expectations swing.

Regulatory and reputational risk: the item investors shouldn’t ignore

A recent regulatory headline also sits in the background noise for CBA holders:

Reuters reported CBA paid a A$792,000 penalty after the ACCC alleged breaches of Consumer Data Right (CDR) rules, tied to failures enabling data sharing for certain accounts. Reuters described it as the highest total penalty to date for an alleged CDR breach. ^[13]

This isn’t the kind of event that usually moves a mega-cap bank’s share price on its own for months. But it does matter for the ongoing narrative around:

operational controls,
customer outcomes, and
the risk that compliance issues become a slow drip of cost and distraction.

“Before market open” 13.12.2025: the calendar reality (and what it means)

One practical detail is easy to miss:

Saturday, 13 December 2025 is not an ASX trading day. The ASX cash market runs on business days, with normal trading hours around 10:00am to 4:00pm Sydney time (with the opening phase starting just before 10:00). ^[14]

So there isn’t a “Saturday open” for ASX:CBA to gap into.

What investors can do on Saturday is prepare for the next open, which will be Monday, 15 December 2025 in Sydney.

What to watch before the next tradable session (Monday 15.12.2025)

Because Friday’s move looked sector-led, the “pre-open” checklist is basically: will the same forces still be there on Monday, or does the mood flip again?

1) Global lead indicators (risk appetite)

CBA often trades like a thermometer for sentiment. If global markets stay cautious—particularly around rates and growth—big banks can either benefit (defensive bid) or suffer (risk-off de-rating), depending on what’s driving the caution. Reuters’ global wrap highlighted exactly this kind of cross-current in markets. ^[15]

2) Bond yields and the rate-path narrative

For banks, the story isn’t “rates up good, rates down bad” in a cartoon sense—it’s about:

how quickly funding costs reprice,
competition in mortgages and deposits,
and whether the economy is cooling in a way that raises credit losses.

Recent Australian labour market cooling signals are part of that equation. ^[16]

3) Bank-sector follow-through on the ASX

Friday showed a notable bounce in Financials and big banks alongside miners. ^[17]
The question for Monday is whether that was:

the start of a more durable “rotation,” or
a single-session rebound after being sold down.

4) Watch the “valuation gravity” narrative

Even after Friday’s rally, consensus targets (as tracked by MarketScreener) still imply material downside versus the current price. ^[18]
That doesn’t force the share price down tomorrow—but it does mean rallies can run into an air pocket of “who’s left to buy at this valuation?”

5) Any new ASX filings or weekend corporate updates

There were no obvious CBA announcements on 12 December itself. ^[19]
But large financials can still surface with:

director interest notices,
substantial holder changes,
funding/programme updates,
or operational commentary that changes the “vibe” going into Monday.

Bottom line for CBA stock after the bell (12.12.2025)

CBA’s A$155.96 (+2.11%) close on Friday reads as a sector-driven rebound within a broader ASX session led by materials and supported by financials. ^[20]

But the bigger setup hasn’t gone away:

Analysts (in aggregate) still lean SELL, with an average target well below the current price. ^[21]
Valuation remains the ongoing battleground, even after the stock’s pullback from mid-2025 highs. ^[22]
Macro expectations—especially around the rate path and growth cooling—remain the main “invisible hand” behind day-to-day moves. ^[23]

And finally, the practical note: there is no ASX open on Saturday 13.12.2025; the next session is Monday, with normal ASX trading hours on business days. ^[24]