Sydney, Jan 17, 2026, 17:08 AEDT — The market has closed.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) shares closed Friday 0.52% higher, at A$154.30. The stock fluctuated between A$152.89 and A$155.29 during the session, rising A$0.80 from Thursday’s close of A$153.50. 1
The market is closed for the weekend, but the rate story keeps rolling. CBA, a heavyweight in Australian equities, often serves as a quick barometer for traders on whether rising rates boost bank earnings or begin to weigh them down.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate target remains at 3.60%, with the next announcement due at 2:30 p.m. on Feb 3. With that date looming, each fresh data release carries increased weight. 2
CBA’s latest data stirred the pot on Jan 15, with its Household Spending Insights revealing a 0.7% rise in December—marking 15 months of continuous growth. Belinda Allen, head of Australian economics at the bank, flagged that this momentum “supports our expectation for a February rate hike” and stressed, “The upcoming CPI print will be critical.” 3
On the loan side, the bank has pushed up some fixed mortgage rates for new and switching customers, with hikes reaching as much as 70 basis points (one basis point equals 0.01 percentage point). Its lowest two-year owner-occupier fixed rate now stands at 5.79%, and the three-year at 6.04%. Yet rivals like Westpac and ANZ still list lower headline fixed rates for certain terms, according to Canstar data. “While the fixed rate tide is now on the way out,” said Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall, those wanting to lock in rates “will likely feel as though they’ve missed the boat.” 4
CBA’s jump on Friday followed a wider boost in financial stocks. The S&P/ASX 200 ended 0.48% higher at 8,903.9. Westpac topped the gains, while the other big four banks each added about 0.5%, MarketIndex reported. 5
But the setup cuts both ways. If inflation comes in softer, markets might abandon bets on a February rate hike, easing pressure on bank stocks that have been priced for higher rates.
If inflation remains stubborn, lenders may shield their net interest margin — the difference between earnings on loans and costs on deposits. Still, rising mortgage rates risk slowing new loan growth and pushing up arrears if household finances come under pressure.
