Commonwealth Bank of Australia Stock (ASX: CBA): Latest News, Analyst Forecasts and What Could Move the Share Price Next (26 December 2025)

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) heads into the final trading days of 2025 with a familiar split-screen story: a blue‑chip franchise that still dominates Australian retail banking, and a stock price that many analysts say bakes in “best-in-class” assumptions already.

On Friday, 26 December 2025 (Boxing Day), that tension is amplified by two realities:

The ASX cash market is closed, so there’s no fresh price discovery today. ^[1]
Investors are digesting new reputational and regulatory headlines after CBA confirmed ~$68 million in additional “goodwill” payments tied to fees charged to concession customers. ^[2]

Below is a comprehensive, up-to-date rundown of the latest CBA stock news, the consensus forecasts, and the key catalysts likely to shape where the Commonwealth Bank share price goes next.

Commonwealth Bank share price today: what investors see on 26 December 2025

Because the ASX is shut for Boxing Day, any “today” price you see is effectively a reference point, not an actively traded market.

Data providers are still publishing indicative levels, with CBA shown around A$161.39 on 26 December, and a 52‑week range broadly cited around A$140.21 to A$192.00. ^[3]

A key context point: CBA is no small passenger on the ASX. In 2025 it remained a heavyweight in index portfolios—Reuters noted CBA represented about ~12% of the Australian share market, which can mechanically support demand via passive flows and benchmark tracking. ^[4]

The biggest CBA news in late December: the $68m “goodwill” payments after ASIC scrutiny

The most material new development affecting sentiment around CBA stock this week is the bank’s reversal on fee refunds for low‑income customers.

What happened

ABC reported that CBA agreed to refund $68 million to “relevant” low-income customers after ASIC scrutiny of fees charged to concession customers—following findings that CBA had incorrectly charged customers $270 million in fees across the period July 2019 to October 2024. ^[5]

What CBA itself said

In its own update, CBA stated it will commence these additional goodwill payments in early February 2026, and that customers “don’t need to do anything”—the bank will contact eligible customers. It also said total goodwill payments would rise to ~$93 million, including ~$25 million linked to an earlier ASIC report regarding fees impacting Indigenous consumers. ^[6]

Why markets care (even if the dollars look manageable)

On pure financial magnitude, $68 million is small relative to CBA’s earnings power. But for investors, this kind of story tends to matter for three reasons:

Regulatory trajectory: whether ASIC, politicians, or consumer advocates push for wider remediation. ^[7]
Brand trust: CBA’s retail dominance is built on scale and customer stickiness; reputational hits can show up indirectly via churn, complaints, or heightened compliance costs.
Headline risk: even when the direct cost is modest, the narrative can weigh on valuation multiples—especially for a stock already priced at a premium.

CBA valuation: premium franchise, premium price… and a premium debate

If you read CBA coverage regularly, you’ll notice one theme that refuses to die (because the numbers keep resurrecting it): valuation.

As of 25 December 2025, GuruFocus calculated CBA’s P/E (TTM) at ~26.72, using a share price around A$161.39 and trailing twelve‑month EPS of roughly A$6.04 (TTM ended June 2025). ^[8]

That’s high for a major bank in a mature market, and it’s the kind of metric that creates a very specific investor psychology:

Bulls say: “CBA deserves it—best franchise, best execution, best digital capabilities, best risk management.”
Bears say: “Even if all that’s true, the stock can still be a poor investment if you overpay.”

Reuters’ reporting on CBA’s FY25 results captured this dynamic bluntly: despite record earnings, investors sold down the shares, and market participants again pointed to how expensive CBA looks relative to peers on standard metrics. ^[9]

The earnings backdrop: record FY25, then margin pressure in FY26’s first quarter

To understand where CBA stock could go next, it helps to separate “headline profits” from the machinery that generates them—especially net interest margin (NIM) and credit quality.

FY25: record profit and record dividends, but investors still flinched

CBA posted record full‑year cash earnings of A$10.25 billion for FY25 and declared a record full‑year dividend of A$4.85 per share (including a final dividend of A$2.60). Reuters also highlighted FY25 net interest margin of 2.08% and a CET1 capital ratio of 12.3%. ^[10]

Even so, Reuters noted the stock sold off after results, with valuation again a central explanation. ^[11]

1Q FY26: “slight profit up,” but margin anxiety returned

In CBA’s July–September (1Q FY26) trading update, Reuters reported:

Cash profit of A$2.6 billion, up 2% year-on-year. ^[12]
Operating costs up ~4%, driven by wages and technology costs. ^[13]
Management flagged margin pressure from competition and a “lower cash rate environment.” ^[14]
The update referenced balance-sheet mix shifts (including strong growth in lower-yielding liquid assets) and a ~A$10 billion rise in institutional deposits. ^[15]
Credit metrics cited included provisions (A$220 million set aside for potential loan losses) and reported levels for overdue home loans (0.66%) and problem business loans (0.94%). ^[16]

That combination—steady profits, rising costs, and margin uncertainty—is exactly the sort of cocktail that makes premium valuations harder to defend.

Interest rates: the macro lever hanging over CBA stock into 2026

For Australian banks, interest-rate direction isn’t just “macro background.” It’s a direct input to margins, credit demand, and arrears.

Where the RBA cash rate sits right now

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate target has been 3.60%, with the RBA recording no change on 10 December 2025 and also holding steady across recent meetings. ^[17]

What economists and markets are expecting

A Reuters poll published in early December reported economists expected the RBA to hold at 3.60% and that forecasts had shifted toward a longer hold through 2026, compared with prior expectations for cuts. The same poll noted that interest-rate futures were pricing over a 70% chance of a hike by end‑2026 (while emphasizing a hike has a “high hurdle”). ^[18]

Separately, the ASX publishes an RBA Rate Indicator framework based on 30‑day cash rate futures (useful for tracking market-implied expectations day by day). ^[19]

Why this matters for CBA shareholders

If rates stay higher for longer, deposit competition can intensify (pressuring NIM), and borrowers may remain cautious.
If rates fall meaningfully, loan growth can recover—but NIM may compress unless banks reprice deposits and lending spreads effectively.
If rates rise again, banks may initially benefit from higher asset yields, but credit stress risk typically increases.

And inflation is part of the puzzle: Reuters reported Australia’s Treasury lifted its inflation forecast to 3.75% for the year ending June 2026 in the MYEFO update, highlighting how sticky inflation expectations can complicate the rate path. ^[20]

Analyst forecasts for CBA stock: consensus targets still below the current price

Here’s where it gets awkward for bullish narratives: many published “consensus” snapshots still show targets materially below the current trading level around A$161.

Investing.com’s consensus page states a “Strong Sell” consensus rating, with an average 12‑month price target around A$121.62, a high estimate of A$146, and a low near A$99.81 (based on 14 analysts in its dataset). ^[21]
TradingView shows a similar picture, citing an analyst price target around A$124.37 (max A$146, min A$99.81). ^[22]

Broker tone check: Goldman Sachs enters with a sell call

In October, Investing.com reported Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a sell stance, arguing CBA’s valuation premium versus peers and global banks is unlikely to be sustained. ^[23]

You don’t need every analyst to agree for this to matter. When a widely followed broker frames the stock as a valuation outlier, it can influence institutional positioning—especially in an environment where investors have alternatives (other banks, cyclicals, defensives) at lower multiples.

What to watch next: 5 catalysts that could move CBA shares

1) Further fallout (or closure) from the fee refund story

The immediate cash cost is known, but the second-order question is whether pressure builds for broader remediation beyond “goodwill” payments—and whether ASIC takes further steps. ^[24]

2) Evidence that margin pressure is stabilising (or worsening)

CBA’s 1Q FY26 update flagged competition and a lower cash-rate backdrop as headwinds to margins. Investors will want clearer disclosure and commentary on how NIM is tracking. ^[25]

3) Credit quality in a late-cycle household economy

Arrears and impaired loans remain a watch item across the sector. CBA’s FY25 reporting included higher 90+ day delayed payments (Reuters noted 0.70% in that period), and the FY26 quarterly update included specific delinquency metrics. ^[26]

4) The RBA’s February meeting and the evolving rates narrative

The next big macro “reset point” is the RBA’s early‑February decision window. The cash rate is currently 3.60%, but the debate has shifted from “how many cuts?” to “could hikes return?” ^[27]

5) The next major earnings catalyst: CBA half-year results (and interim dividend timing)

CBA’s investor calendar lists:

Half‑year results and interim dividend announcement:11 February 2026
Ex‑dividend date:18 February 2026
Record date:19 February 2026
Interim dividend payment date:30 March 2026 ^[28]

For many shareholders, those dates matter as much as any analyst rating—because CBA remains, at heart, a dividend-and-franking machine with a premium brand.

Bottom line for 26 December 2025: CBA stock enters 2026 with headlines, rate uncertainty, and a valuation test

As of Boxing Day 2025, CBA stock sits at the intersection of:

Fresh consumer-fee and remediation headlines (short-term sentiment risk). ^[29]
A still-uncertain interest rate path (which determines whether margin pressure eases or persists). ^[30]
A premium valuation (which leaves less room for “good but not great” updates). ^[31]
And a near-term catalyst calendar that ramps into February’s half‑year results. ^[32]

For investors tracking the Commonwealth Bank share price into 2026, the key question is not whether CBA is a quality business. It’s whether the business can deliver enough certainty on margins, costs, and regulatory noise to justify a multiple that many consensus forecasts still don’t.

References

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