Commonwealth Bank of Australia Stock (ASX:CBA): Share Price, Rate-Hike Outlook and Analyst Forecasts as of 21 December 2025

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) is heading into the final stretch of 2025 with the same two forces pulling its share price in opposite directions: a market-leading retail banking franchise that investors treat like a “core holding,” and a valuation that many analysts still struggle to justify.

Because 21 December 2025 falls on a Sunday, Australian equities aren’t trading today. The most recent pricing snapshot is therefore from Friday’s close (19 December 2025)—and it shows CBA stabilising after a volatile second half of the year, even as rate expectations swing again. ^[1]

CBA share price today: where Commonwealth Bank stock sits heading into year-end

At the last ASX close (19 December 2025), CBA shares finished at A$157.75, up A$2.75 (+1.77%) on the day. ^[2]

Zoom out a little and you get a clearer read on investor mood:

52-week high:A$191.40, reached on 25 June 2025
52-week low:A$142.36, reached on 14 March 2025
Distance from the high: about -17.6% (still a meaningful retreat from June’s peak) ^[3]

CBA’s scale remains enormous even after the pullback. Market cap data around the latest close puts it near A$264 billion, keeping it one of the market’s heaviest hitters and a major influence on index performance. ^[4]

The macro story investors are watching: CBA now expects an RBA rate hike in February 2026

A major new narrative shift in mid-December is that Commonwealth Bank economists now expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates by 25 basis points in February 2026—a turn after earlier cuts in 2025. In CBA’s published outlook, the bank also sketches a path where the cash rate reaches 3.85% by the end of 2026, with inflation still hovering above target for a time. ^[5]

For CBA shareholders, this matters because rate expectations feed directly into:

Net interest margins (NIM): higher rates can help margins in theory, but deposit competition can eat the benefit quickly.
Credit demand: mortgage and business lending volumes respond to confidence and serviceability.
Credit quality: arrears trends tend to lag the economy and interest-rate settings.

And the confidence channel is already wobbling. Reuters reported that Australian consumer sentiment fell sharply in December 2025, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute index dropping 9% to 94.5 amid renewed anxiety about inflation and rates. ^[6]

That combination—rate-hike talk plus softer sentiment—is one reason banks can trade like a tug-of-war: “better margins” optimism vs “credit risk and slower growth” caution.

What CommBank’s own data is saying about consumers: Black Friday spending hit a record

Another late-December talking point comes from CBA’s payments and analytics arm, CommBank iQ, which reported Australians spent a record A$23.8 billion over the two-week Black Friday period in 2025—19.5% above a typical fortnight, with online sales rising 9.3% to A$8 billion. ^[7]

Two details in that report stand out for investors:

Spending skewed toward experiences: travel bookings rose to A$2.2 billion (+8.4% YoY), and discretionary services also lifted. ^[8]
Digital shift continues: most incremental growth came through online spending—relevant because CBA’s strategic pitch to the market increasingly leans on digital engagement, data and automation. ^[9]

This isn’t a direct “earnings update,” but for a bank with huge transaction volumes, consumer throughput is a real-time pulse check on household resilience.

Inside Commonwealth Bank: technology leadership change and a bigger AI push

CBA is also making news on the operational side—where investors tend to pay attention for one reason: costs (and whether tech spending eventually buys efficiency).

CBA CIO Gavin Munroe is leaving in December 2025

CBA confirmed on 24 November 2025 that Group Executive Technology and Group Chief Information Officer Gavin Munroe will leave, with his last day 22 December 2025. In the interim, Rodrigo Castillo and Victoria Ledda will co-lead the technology function. ^[10]

In the same announcement, CBA highlighted major modernisation milestones—including completing the upgrade and migration of its SAP core banking platform to AWS, and described itself as ranked #4 globally for AI maturity in financial services. ^[11]

CBA’s first Chief AI Officer starts in early 2026

Adding to the AI narrative, iTnews reported that CBA has hired Ranil Boteju (from Lloyds Banking Group) as its first Chief AI Officer, starting in early 2026. ^[12]

For shareholders, the key question isn’t whether AI is fashionable (it is), but whether CBA can translate heavy investment into:

lower unit costs-to-serve,
stronger fraud/scam defences, and
better product cross-sell and retention—
without letting the cost base run away faster than revenue.

Financial performance backdrop: strong profits, but margin pressure hasn’t disappeared

CBA’s most recent full-year picture is still anchored by FY25 results.

In its FY25 results hub, CBA reported:

Cash NPAT:A$10.252 billion, up 4% year-on-year
Net interest margin:2.08%, up 9 bps on FY24
Total FY25 dividend:A$4.85 per share, fully franked (final dividend A$2.60)
CET1 ratio (APRA Level 2):12.3%
Buy-back progress:A$300 million completed of the announced A$1 billion on-market buy-back, with the buy-back period extended by 12 months ^[13]

But the more recent debate is what happened after the FY25 glow, when the market refocused on margins and competition.

Reuters reported in November 2025 that CBA’s quarterly update showed cash profit of about A$2.6 billion and highlighted that competition and customer switching were weighing on margins, even as the bank grew mortgages and deposits. ^[14]

That’s the core tension in one line: CBA can be growing and “healthy,” while still facing margin compression because Australia’s deposit and mortgage markets are brutally competitive.

Analyst forecasts for Commonwealth Bank stock: why many targets sit below the current price

Here’s the uncomfortable fact for bullish CBA holders: a lot of publicly available analyst consensus targets are still well below A$157.75.

Across major market-data and broker-consensus aggregators:

Investing.com (14 analysts): average target around A$121.62, described as a “Strong Sell” consensus. ^[15]
ValueInvesting.io (20 analysts): average target A$125.38; range A$97.03 to A$153.30; consensus “SELL.” ^[16]
Fintel: average one-year target A$125.38; range A$97.03 to A$153.30. ^[17]
TradingView: average target A$124.37, with max A$146.00 and min A$99.81. ^[18]
Stockopedia: consensus target A$123.00 (roughly 22% below the last close). ^[19]

Why do targets cluster below market price?

Most valuation arguments come down to some mix of:

Premium multiple already priced in: CBA has long traded at a premium to peers because of franchise strength and (historically) steadier returns.
Growth constraints: Australia’s big banks aren’t high-growth businesses; they’re mature lenders operating in a highly regulated market.
Margin pressure risk: deposit pricing wars and mortgage churn can compress spreads, even in “higher for longer” rate scenarios.
Crowding: CBA is widely held; when sentiment turns, the unwind can be fast.

That doesn’t mean the market must fall to the average target—analyst targets are not destiny. But it does explain why every rally tends to spark the same question: what new information justifies paying more than the Street thinks it’s worth?

Key dates ahead: the next big catalysts for CBA shares in early 2026

CBA has already published the key diary dates for FY26, and they’re likely to be the next major volatility triggers for the stock:

Half-year results + interim dividend announcement:11 February 2026
Interim dividend ex-date:18 February 2026
Record date:19 February 2026
Interim dividend payment date:30 March 2026 (on or around) ^[20]

Macro-wise, markets are also staring at the data pipeline that could validate (or break) the February rate-hike narrative—especially inflation prints and growth momentum, which CBA itself has flagged in its outlook. ^[21]

What to watch: the few variables that matter most for CBA stock right now

For the rest of December 2025 and into early 2026, the “signal” for CBA investors is likely to come from a handful of moving parts:

Net interest margin vs deposit competition: FY25 showed margin improvement, but competitive intensity is still a headline theme. ^[22]
Credit quality and arrears: CBA has pointed to stabilising arrears and a strong provision position, but sentiment has weakened as rate fears return. ^[23]
Consumer momentum: record Black Friday spending suggests resilience, but it can coexist with pessimistic sentiment—humans are contradictory like that. ^[24]
Execution on technology and AI: leadership change plus new AI roles could be a long-run advantage—or just a bigger cost line—depending on delivery. ^[25]
Valuation gap vs targets: with consensus targets below the current price, future upside often depends on CBA outperforming expectations (or analysts lifting targets materially). ^[26]

Bottom line on 21 December 2025

As of the last ASX close (A$157.75 on 19 December 2025), Commonwealth Bank stock remains one of Australia’s most-followed—and most-debated—large caps: admired for consistency and franchise strength, but dogged by a valuation that many analysts still mark below the market. ^[27]

The next phase of the story is already queued up: a possible RBA pivot back to hikes, CBA’s February 2026 results and dividend decision, and whether the bank can keep defending margins while continuing to spend heavily on tech, fraud prevention, and AI transformation. ^[28]

References

National Australia Bank (ASX: NAB) Stock: Latest News, Dividend, FY2025 Results, and 2026 Outlook (21 Dec 2025)

BHP Group Ltd Stock (ASX:BHP, NYSE:BHP): Latest News, Forecasts and Analyst Views as of 21 December 2025

Stock Market Today 21.12.2025

Micron Technology (MU) Stock News and Forecasts for Dec. 20, 2025: Earnings Blowout, AI Memory Shortage, and Price Targets Up to $500