Compass Group PLC Stock (LSE: CPG) Update: Share Price Near 12-Month Lows as FY2026 Outlook, Vermaat Deal and Analyst Forecasts Take Center Stage (13 Dec 2025)

Compass Group PLC (LSE: CPG)—the FTSE 100 contract catering and food services giant—heads into mid-December with its share price hovering near the lower end of its 52-week range, even after delivering another year of strong profit growth and setting out fresh FY2026 guidance. The near-term narrative is being shaped by three big threads: (1) a softer-looking growth rate in 2026 as inflation cools, (2) the next leg of M&A-driven expansion, led by the Vermaat acquisition now cleared by EU regulators, and (3) a cluster of broker notes arguing the recent pullback has opened a potentially attractive entry point for long-term “compounder” investors. ^[1]

Compass Group share price today: where CPG stock stands on 13 December 2025

Because 13 December 2025 falls on a Saturday, the latest market reference points come from Friday’s close. Compass Group shares closed at 2,324p on 12 December 2025, after trading in a tight intraday range around the low-to-mid 2,300s in recent sessions. ^[2]

That closing level also sits uncomfortably close to the bottom of the stock’s 52-week range of roughly 2,314p to 2,853p, implying the shares are down about 18.5% from their 52-week high (a meaningful drawdown for a business that’s often treated as a steady defensive grower). ^[3]

So the obvious question for investors is: what changed—the company, the outlook, or simply the market’s willingness to pay up for reliability?

What’s driving Compass Group stock right now?

1) FY2025 delivered growth—but the market fixated on “slower” 2026 growth rates

Compass posted FY2025 results showing underlying operating profit growth of 11.7% (constant currency), powered by organic revenue growth of 8.7% and a modest step-up in margin. ^[4]

Yet, in the very same package, management indicated that FY2026 growth should moderate as the inflation tailwind fades. Reuters reported the company expects organic revenue growth of around 7% and profit growth of about 10% in the new financial year—broadly in line with expectations, but enough to disappoint investors who’d grown used to inflation-assisted momentum. ^[5]

This is a classic market mood swing: “Great results” can still mean “meh stock” when the forward slope looks less steep.

2) Return-to-office and the US corporate engine still matter most

Compass’s scale advantage is most visible in North America and especially in Business & Industry (workplace dining). Reuters highlighted strong demand in US office canteens and new business wins as key drivers of the FY2025 beat. ^[6]

The Financial Times also framed Compass as a beneficiary of a persistent return-to-office trend—while pointing to fresh growth opportunities tied to the technology sector and data-center construction cycle. ^[7]

3) M&A is back in the spotlight, with Vermaat moving from “announced” to “cleared”

Compass’s agreed purchase of Dutch premium food services group Vermaat (enterprise value around €1.5bn) has been one of the year’s defining strategic moves, aimed at pushing deeper into higher-end, concept-driven foodservice in Europe. ^[8]

As of 10 December 2025, the European Commission announced clearance of the transaction under the EU Merger Regulation—an important de-risking step for completion and integration planning. ^[9]

Latest Compass Group news: FY2025 results and FY2026 guidance in plain English

Compass’s FY2025 numbers point to a business still executing well operationally:

Organic revenue growth:8.7% (constant currency) ^[10]
Underlying operating profit:$3,335m (+11.7% constant currency) ^[11]
Underlying operating margin:7.2% (up 10bps) ^[12]
Underlying free cash flow:$1,975m (up 13.5%) ^[13]
Organic growth drivers: net new business growth ~4.5%, pricing ~3%, and like-for-like volume growth ~1%; client retention improved to 96.3% ^[14]

For FY2026, the company’s own guidance is clear and (importantly) specific:

Underlying operating profit growth: around 10% (constant currency)
Organic revenue growth: around 7%
M&A contribution to profit growth: around 2% (including Vermaat) ^[15]

Compass also flagged finance and balance-sheet realities that investors tend to re-price quickly:

Underlying finance costs: expected to be around $350m (including Vermaat)
Leverage: expected to be above the 1.0–1.5 target range in 2026, peaking at the half-year due to M&A activity ^[16]

Translation: the company is choosing growth and capability-building—while acknowledging that the balance sheet may look “busier” for a while.

Vermaat acquisition: why the EU approval matters for Compass investors

The strategic logic

Compass isn’t buying Vermaat because it needs more sandwich lines. It’s buying Vermaat for premium concepts, European footprint, and a different mix—more hospitality-style offers, more bespoke on-site experiences, and potentially better positioning in segments where “quality of food” is increasingly tied to employee satisfaction and client retention. ^[17]

The regulatory milestone

EU clearance removes a major gating factor. The European Commission’s decision on 10 December 2025 signals that, from a competition standpoint, the deal can proceed without conditions—at least at the EU level. ^[18]

The market’s remaining questions

Even with approval in hand, investors still tend to focus on three execution items:

Integration pace (especially as Compass continues other bolt-on activity)
Margin trajectory (can premiumization lift margins, or does complexity eat them?)
Leverage discipline (especially with management openly guiding to leverage above target in 2026) ^[19]

Analyst forecasts and broker views on Compass Group stock

Broker commentary in early December has leaned noticeably constructive—often using the same basic argument: the stock has pulled back more than the business has deteriorated.

RBC turns more bullish (Outperform)

On 1 December, RBC Capital Markets upgraded Compass to “outperform”, raising its price target to 2,775p. The RBC note (as reported by Investing.com) framed the sell-off as potentially overdone and pushed back on three headline worries: consumer pressure, AI disruption, and GLP‑1 weight-loss drugs reducing food demand. ^[20]

RBC also emphasized Compass’s scale in North America and its long runway, noting the company has less than 15% share of a total addressable market it estimates around $360bn. ^[21]

Berenberg lifts its target to 3,100p

Berenberg raised its Compass price target to 3,100p while maintaining a Buy rating, according to reporting that compiled broker updates in early December. ^[22]

What “consensus” currently looks like

Consensus snapshots vary by provider, but one widely cited set of estimates (19 analysts) shows:

Consensus rating: “Buy”
Average 12-month price target: about 2,820p
High estimate: about 3,196p
Low estimate: about 2,169p ^[23]

That spread is worth taking seriously. It signals real disagreement over valuation and forward growth, not just minor quibbling over decimal points.

The bull case for Compass Group: why the business still looks “built to compound”

Even after the share price drop, the optimistic thesis remains coherent:

Scale + sector specialization: Compass’s pitch is that it can run foodservice operations more efficiently than in-house teams or smaller rivals, while tailoring offers by sector (workplace, healthcare, education, sports/leisure, defence/offshore/remote). ^[24]
Structural outsourcing runway: management points to a large addressable market and continued first-time outsourcing opportunities. ^[25]
US office demand resilience: Reuters described strong US workplace dining demand helping lift results, supported by contract wins. ^[26]
“AI economy” adjacency: the FT reported Compass is pursuing catering opportunities tied to data-center construction and tech sector expansion, effectively treating the AI capex cycle as a source of new feeding occasions (sometimes literally in remote places with few alternatives). ^[27]
M&A as capability expansion, not just scale: Vermaat is positioned as a step into premium European foodservice, not simply “more of the same.” ^[28]

The bear case and key risks: what could keep pressure on CPG shares?

The cautious view is less about “Compass is broken” and more about “the stock may have been priced for perfection.”

Here are the main risk clusters investors are watching:

Growth normalization as inflation fades
If pricing inflation slows, reported revenue growth can look less exciting even if underlying volumes and wins remain healthy—exactly the dynamic Reuters pointed to in the FY2026 outlook. ^[29]
Leverage and finance costs rising with M&A
Compass explicitly guided to leverage above its target band in FY2026 and pointed to finance costs around $350m (including Vermaat). That tends to raise the bar for flawless integration and cash conversion. ^[30]
Workplace dining is cyclical in disguise
Return-to-office trends have helped, but they’re not a law of physics. Office attendance policies, employment levels, and corporate cost cutting can all impact on-site food demand. ^[31]
Food and labor cost volatility
Even strong operators can get squeezed when wage inflation and food input costs move faster than contract repricing mechanisms.
Narrative risks (GLP‑1, AI, consumer pressure)
RBC explicitly called these fears overdone, but the fact they need rebutting tells you they’re influential on sentiment—and sentiment can move faster than quarterly results. ^[32]

Smaller but “current” regulatory/company updates investors may notice

In addition to results and M&A headlines, Compass has released standard regulatory updates in early December:

Director Declaration (8 Dec 2025): Compass noted that non-executive director Stefan Bomhard took on a non-executive role at The Magnum Ice Cream Company N.V., which listed on multiple exchanges on 8 December 2025. ^[33]
Director/PDMR shareholding disclosures (5 Dec 2025): filings detailed share transactions tied to incentive plan vesting and related sales for tax/social security obligations, plus deferred bonus and LTIP awards. ^[34]
Total voting rights (as at 30 Nov 2025): Compass reported its issued share capital and the split between shares admitted to trading and shares held in treasury. ^[35]

These aren’t usually price-moving on their own, but they’re part of the “what’s new” trail around the stock.

What to watch next: dividend dates and the FY2026 calendar

For investors tracking near-term catalysts, Compass’s published calendar highlights several upcoming dates:

Ex-dividend date for the 2025 final dividend:15 January 2026
Record date:16 January 2026
Q1 Trading Update / AGM:5 February 2026
Half-year results:11 May 2026 ^[36]

Those events matter because they’re the next opportunities for management to confirm (or revise) the FY2026 growth algorithm—and for the market to decide whether this is a temporary valuation wobble or a more durable re-rating.

Bottom line for Compass Group PLC stock on 13 December 2025

Compass Group enters mid-December with an unusual setup: operational momentum remains solid, FY2026 guidance is clear, and analysts are broadly constructive—yet the stock sits near its 12-month lows. ^[37]

If the Vermaat integration proceeds smoothly and Compass proves it can keep winning net new business while protecting margins in a lower-inflation environment, today’s depressed price level may later look like a classic “quality stock on sale” moment. If leverage, finance costs, or workplace dining demand disappoint, the market may continue to treat Compass less like a premium compounder and more like a good company with a fully priced past. ^[38]

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