NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 15:58 ET — Market closed
- Confluent (CFLT) fell 0.4% Friday to $30.11, after trading in a tight $30.09–$30.30 range.
- Investors remain focused on the stock’s discount to IBM’s agreed all-cash takeover price. IBM Newsroom
- A merger proxy filing flagged Jan. 12 as the initial U.S. antitrust waiting-period deadline under the HSR process. SEC
Confluent shares slipped 0.4% to $30.11 at Friday’s close, after trading between $30.09 and $30.30. Volume was about 29.4 million shares.
The stock’s day-to-day move matters now mostly for takeover math, not fundamentals. Confluent is in a pending all-cash acquisition, and traders are watching how tightly the shares track the deal price.
The broader market backdrop can still shift that spread. U.S. stocks opened 2026 with choppy trading as Treasury yields climbed, a mix that tends to pressure growth names and raise the return investors demand for waiting on cash deals.
IBM and Confluent said in December that IBM will buy the data-streaming software maker for $31 per share in cash, valuing the transaction at $11 billion, and fund it with cash on hand. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna said the tie-up will help enterprises deploy generative and agentic AI “better and faster.” IBM Newsroom
A preliminary merger proxy statement said the companies filed U.S. antitrust notifications under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act on Dec. 12, and the initial 30-day waiting period would expire at 11:59 p.m. ET on Jan. 12 unless regulators end it early or demand more information. The filing also outlined a $453.6 million termination fee payable by Confluent to IBM in certain scenarios and said the agreement has no reverse termination fee payable by IBM. SEC
The HSR process is the U.S. pre-merger review that lets the Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission screen big transactions. A “second request” is the agencies’ deeper information demand, and it can extend timelines substantially because it pauses the clock until companies comply.
At Friday’s close, Confluent traded about $0.89 below IBM’s offer, a roughly 2.9% gap. Assuming a mid-2026 closing, that works out to about a 6% annualized return — a simple way arbitrage desks translate spread into time-and-risk pricing.
That discount is also a quick read on perceived friction. The market typically widens cash-deal spreads when rates rise, regulatory scrutiny intensifies, or closing timelines look less certain.
Investors will watch for signs regulators are comfortable letting the initial waiting period lapse without a second request. They will also monitor when Confluent moves from a preliminary proxy to a definitive filing and sets the shareholder vote required to approve the merger.
Before Monday’s session, the $31 offer price remains the key reference level for CFLT. Moves closer to the bid often signal growing confidence in timing, while a wider discount can flag rising concern about delay.
Rates are the other lever. If Treasury yields stay elevated, cash-deal spreads often have to widen to compete with safer alternatives, even when deal headlines do not change.
The next clear milestone is Jan. 12 for the initial HSR waiting period. If regulators issue a second request, deal timing assumptions would likely reset; if not, attention shifts toward the shareholder vote and the targeted mid-2026 finish.
