New York, Feb 6, 2026, 14:30 EST — Regular session
- Confluent shares hovered near $30.57 in the afternoon, up about 0.7%.
- The company, after facing lawsuits and pressure from shareholders, has put out extra disclosures on its merger.
- Arbitrage spread is still tight; traders, however, are closely watching for potential delays as next week approaches.
Confluent shares edged higher Friday after the data-streaming firm put out more merger-related disclosures tied to its upcoming IBM deal, a move prompted by investor scrutiny and a pair of lawsuits challenging its proxy. As of 2:30 p.m. EST, the stock was sitting at about $30.57, up 0.7%. The latest filing detailed 17 demand letters and two lawsuits filed in New York state court. Confluent said it plans to revise its proxy materials ahead of the shareholder meeting on Feb. 12.
Why does it matter? Confluent’s shares are sitting just under IBM’s offer price, leaving a thin spread that could widen sharply if legal or regulatory delays hit the deal. That difference — the “deal spread,” the space between the share price and the buyout price — is exactly where arbitrage funds look to profit.
IBM agreed back in December to buy Confluent at $31 per share in cash—a deal giving Confluent an $11 billion valuation. They’re targeting a close by mid-2026, though that depends on shareholder and regulatory sign-off. IBM’s CEO, Arvind Krishna, said the tie-up should help enterprises deploy generative and agentic AI “better and faster.” Over at Confluent, CEO Jay Kreps said he’s eager to tap into IBM’s global scale to accelerate Confluent’s strategy. 1
Shareholders get a proxy statement outlining deal specifics, background, and the financials, all aimed at securing their votes. Even when a transaction is already up for a vote, lawsuits and demand letters often allege missing details in these documents.
Confluent’s latest filing doesn’t touch the core financials, but it does flesh out some details. The company is looking to minimize the odds of a judge stepping in unexpectedly later.
The stock ticked higher Friday, joining a bounce in U.S. tech names after a rough patch for the group. Chips and software picked up most of the slack, with investors shifting their take on big AI-related spending. 2
For Confluent, traders aren’t zeroed in on earnings right now. Timing is what’s moving the needle. Any fresh court documents, new demands from shareholders, or changes to when the deal might close—all of it could send the spread wider relative to that $31-per-share cash offer.
Here’s the risk: ramped-up lawsuits or sluggish approvals could tank the deal, sending the stock even lower than the offer price. A failed transaction would shove Confluent’s shares back to their core valuation—right into a choppy sector.
Confluent has set Feb. 11 for its Q4 and full-year results, dropping the numbers after the U.S. market closes. The timing lands just before shareholders weigh in on the IBM acquisition. 3
