New York, Feb 6, 2026, 21:33 EST — The market has wrapped up trading for the day.
- Confluent closed out Friday at $30.57, just shy of IBM’s $31-per-share cash bid.
- Two dates are on deck next week: Confluent reports results Feb. 11, followed by a shareholder vote on Feb. 12.
- The gap between the current price and the deal price factors in closing risk, time, and the expense of locking up cash.
Confluent stock closed out Friday at $30.57, ticking up 0.7%. That’s just 43 cents shy of IBM’s $31 cash bid, leaving investors bracing for a critical week ahead on the deal. 1
The slim spread is notable right now: Confluent shareholders are set to vote on the merger Feb. 12, with earnings slated for Feb. 11 and no standard call or guidance coming — just another sign the stock’s moving like a deal slip instead of a typical software play.
For merger-arb players, that 43-cent “spread” says two things at once: how much of a wait they expect before collecting, and what odds they’re putting on the deal actually falling through.
Confluent plans to announce its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results after U.S. markets close on Feb. 11. The company won’t hold an earnings call or issue financial guidance, citing its pending deal with IBM. 2
The company, in a filing, said the shareholder meeting will take place Feb. 12 at 9:00 a.m. Pacific, streamed live online. The same filing included more information about what its advisers have been doing.
Confluent disclosed in the filing that it’s been hit with 17 demand letters from shareholders and is facing two lawsuits in New York state court over its proxy disclosures. The company maintains it hasn’t done anything wrong, but added extra information anyway, aiming to “moot” the claims and head off more legal trouble.
Back in December, IBM revealed plans to acquire Confluent, putting $31 per share on the table for the streaming data firm—a price that values the deal at $11 billion. IBM boss Arvind Krishna pitched the move as a way to boost “trusted communication and data flow” between systems. From Confluent’s side, CEO Jay Kreps pointed to IBM’s reach as a chance to speed up Confluent’s growth strategy. 3
Here’s the calculation traders are making: a completed deal delivers $31 in cash per Confluent share. But if the agreement stalls or falls apart, the stock could quickly reset to levels more in line with its fundamentals.
Still, things don’t always go smoothly. Delays with regulatory signoffs in other regions, shareholder lawsuits that crank up the pressure and expenses, or any curveball that shifts expectations around the deal’s outcome or timeline—all of these can push the spread wider. 3
Confluent faces two immediate events: earnings drop after the bell Wednesday, Feb. 11, then a shareholder vote hits first thing the next day. Should both move through without drama, attention turns to final sign-offs and the projected mid-2026 close.
