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ConocoPhillips (COP) beats Q3, hikes dividend 8%, lifts 2025 output; Willow budget raised to up to $9B — Nov. 6, 2025
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ConocoPhillips (COP) beats Q3, hikes dividend 8%, lifts 2025 output; Willow budget raised to up to $9B — Nov. 6, 2025

by
6 November 2025

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) delivered a news‑packed earnings day: the U.S. independent beat third‑quarter profit expectations, raised its full‑year production guidance, increased its quarterly dividend by 8% to $0.84, and updated the cost outlook for its Willow project in Alaska to $8.5–$9.0 billion. Management also released preliminary 2026 guidance with lower planned capital and operating costs and flat‑to‑modest production growth. [1]

The quick take

  • Earnings beat: Adjusted EPS $1.61 vs. ~$1.43 consensus (LSEG), helped by higher output and cost discipline despite softer crude benchmarks. [2]
  • Dividend raised: Ordinary dividend up 8% to $0.84 per share; payable Dec. 1, 2025 to shareholders of record Nov. 17, 2025. [3]
  • Production & guidance: Q3 production ~2.399 MMBOED; full‑year 2025 guidance raised to 2.375 MMBOED; Q4 outlook 2.30–2.34 MMBOED. [4]
  • Costs: 2025 adjusted operating cost guidance cut to $10.6B; 2026 prelim guidance: capex ~$12B, adjusted opex ~$10.2B, 0–2% underlying production growth. [5]
  • Projects: Willow total project capital updated to $8.5–$9.0B; first oil early 2029. LNG capital reduced to ~$3.4B after a Port Arthur credit; NFE first LNG expected 2026. [6]

By the numbers (Q3 2025)

  • Production:2,399 MBOED total; Lower 48: 1,528 MBOED
    — Delaware 686, Midland 196, Eagle Ford 403, Bakken 200 MBOED. [7]
  • Profitability: EPS $1.38 (GAAP); adjusted EPS $1.61. [8]
  • Cash generation:$5.9B cash provided by operating activities; $5.4B CFO (ex‑WC). [9]
  • Shareholder returns:$2.2B returned (≈ $1.3B buybacks + $1.0B dividend) in Q3. [10]
  • Realized price:$46.44/BOE, ~14% below Q3 2024. [11]
  • Balance sheet:$6.6B cash & short‑term investments at quarter‑end. [12]

What changed today — and why it matters

Earnings beat and stronger 2025 outlook. ConocoPhillips outpaced expectations on adjusted profit thanks to higher production and lower operating costs. The company also lifted full‑year production guidance and trimmed 2025 cost guidance, signaling better capital efficiency heading into year‑end. Reuters highlighted the beat versus consensus and noted the company’s integration and cost savings from the Marathon Oil acquisition helped offset ~13% year‑over‑year declines in benchmark prices. [13]

Bigger base dividend. COP raised its quarterly ordinary dividend by 8% to $0.84, maintaining its pledge of top‑quartile dividend growth. The payout is payable Dec. 1 to holders of record Nov. 17—dates that matter for income investors tracking ex‑dividend timelines. [14]

2026 glide path: doing more with less. Preliminary 2026 guidance calls for ~$12B capex (down vs. 2025), ~$10.2B adjusted operating costs, and 0–2% underlying production growth—consistent with a “returns‑first” playbook as large projects ramp and acquisition synergies mature. [15]

Portfolio & project updates

  • Willow (Alaska): Total project capital updated to $8.5–$9.0B, reflecting inflation and localized North Slope/marine cost escalation; first oil now early 2029. [16]
  • LNG strategy: After a $0.6B Port Arthur credit, total LNG project capital is ~$3.4B and ~80% complete; first LNG from Qatar NFE expected 2026. Long‑term SPAs signed at Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 and Rio Grande LNG Train 5 (20‑year terms). [17]
  • Portfolio high‑grading: YTD 2025 dispositions exceed $3B; COP remains on track for $5B through 2026 (including the Q4 closing of $1.3B Anadarko Basin assets). [18]

Regulatory watch: Marathon Oil settlement touches the COP orbit

Separately today, Marathon Oil—acquired by ConocoPhillips in November 2024—reached a $241 million settlement over alleged air‑pollution violations on North Dakota’s Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. The deal includes a record $64.5M Clean Air Act penalty and $177M in environmental upgrades, which are expected to reduce emissions by ~2.25 million tons CO₂‑equivalent over five years. The proposed consent decree is subject to a 30‑day public‑comment period; Marathon says it began compliance work in 2022. [19]

Context: ConocoPhillips completed its acquisition of Marathon Oil in 2024, integrating those assets into COP’s portfolio. [20]

What to watch next

  • Earnings call: Management hosts its Q3 2025 call today at 12:00 p.m. ET—a venue to listen for details on Willow phasing, LNG commercialization, and 2026 capital priorities. [21]
  • Dividend timeline: Record date Nov. 17, 2025; payment Dec. 1, 2025. [22]
  • Q4 production cadence: Company targets 2.30–2.34 MMBOED; any updates to Lower 48 activity or international turnarounds could nudge the range. [23]
  • Asset sales & synergy track: Management reiterated progress toward $5B in dispositions by year‑end 2026 and sustained operating‑cost improvements following the Marathon integration. [24]

Editorial notes for readers (Google News/Discover)

  • Source transparency: Financial figures, guidance, project milestones, dividend dates, and portfolio updates come from ConocoPhillips’ official Q3 2025 news release and SEC 8‑K filed today. Independent confirmation of the earnings beat and quarter‑ahead production range is from Reuters. The regulatory item regarding Marathon Oil stems from a Reuters report on today’s announced settlement. [25]

This article is for information purposes only and is not investment advice.

ConocoPhillips Smashes Earnings: Efficiency Gains Drive Growth
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. www.conocophillips.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.conocophillips.com, 4. www.conocophillips.com, 5. www.conocophillips.com, 6. www.conocophillips.com, 7. www.conocophillips.com, 8. www.conocophillips.com, 9. www.conocophillips.com, 10. www.conocophillips.com, 11. www.conocophillips.com, 12. www.conocophillips.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.conocophillips.com, 15. www.conocophillips.com, 16. www.conocophillips.com, 17. www.conocophillips.com, 18. www.conocophillips.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.conocophillips.com, 21. www.conocophillips.com, 22. www.conocophillips.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.conocophillips.com, 25. www.conocophillips.com

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Mateusz Kaczmarek Latest posts

A technology and finance expert writing for TS2.tech. He analyzes developments in satellites, telecommunications, and artificial intelligence, with a focus on their impact on global markets. Author of industry reports and market commentary, often cited in tech and business media. Passionate about innovation and the digital economy.

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