(SEO): ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) stock finished a volatile week as oil prices slid and legal headlines hit Alaska operations. Here’s the latest COP stock news, Wall Street forecasts, and what to watch next week.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) closed Friday, Dec. 12, 2025 at $95.54 after a choppy week for energy stocks, with investors balancing falling crude prices, new legal developments in Alaska, and a flurry of analyst price-target updates.
While COP’s longer-term thesis still leans on scale, shareholder returns, and a deep project queue (including Alaska’s Willow and multiple LNG positions), the near-term tape is being driven by a familiar reality for oil producers: the market’s conviction (or lack of it) on 2026 supply-demand balance.
Below is a detailed, publication-ready rundown of what moved ConocoPhillips stock this week, the latest news from the past few days, updated forecasts and analyst views, and the key catalysts traders will be watching in the week ahead.
ConocoPhillips stock price action this week (Dec. 8–12, 2025)
COP ended Friday down on the day, but up for the week depending on the starting reference point:
- Close Dec. 8: $92.88
- Close Dec. 12: $95.54
That’s a gain of $2.66 (+2.86%) from Monday’s close to Friday’s close (based on these closes). [1]
Trading this week also showed a defined range:
- Week low (intraday): ~$92.18 (Dec. 9)
- Week high (intraday): ~$97.71 (Dec. 11) [2]
A notable moment came midweek: COP jumped 3.61% on Wednesday (Dec. 10) to close at $96.80, outpacing peers on a strong market day, with higher-than-average trading volume reported by MarketWatch’s market recap. [3]
Even after the rebound, COP remained meaningfully below its 52-week peak. MarketWatch noted the 52-week high of $106.20 (reached earlier in 2025), and by Friday’s close COP was still roughly ~10% below that level. [4]
The biggest driver: oil prices fell sharply this week
For upstream producers like ConocoPhillips, crude prices still matter—especially for short-term sentiment and near-term cash-flow expectations.
On Friday, Reuters reported that oil posted a weekly loss as markets focused on oversupply concerns and broader geopolitical uncertainty:
- Brent settled: $61.12 per barrel
- WTI settled: $57.44 per barrel
- Weekly decline: about 4% [5]
That slide in crude helps explain why energy equities (including COP) struggled to maintain upside even after strong single-day moves. It also sets the tone for the “week ahead” conversation: if crude can’t stabilize, COP may trade more like an oil beta than a fundamentals story—at least tactically.
Latest ConocoPhillips news from the past few days
1) New Alaska lawsuit challenges approval of ConocoPhillips exploration program
The most company-specific headline this week came from Alaska.
The Associated Press reported Thursday (Dec. 11) that conservation groups and an Iñupiat-led organization filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn federal approval of a one-year exploratory program in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska. The program involves seismic work and plans to drill four exploratory wells near existing ConocoPhillips developments, including the Willow area. The company said it is confident in its plan and permits. [6]
The underlying federal decision is dated Nov. 26, 2025, per BLM’s decision record for the exploration/drilling program. [7]
Why it matters for COP stock: Even when a lawsuit doesn’t immediately halt activity, it can create headline risk, add permitting friction, and contribute to a “regulatory overhang” narrative—especially for Alaska-linked growth projects.
2) “Peak Permian” debate continues (and COP is a major Permian player)
A Reuters analysis this week highlighted that the Permian Basin’s explosive growth appears to be slowing toward a plateau, with EIA data showing output peaking around 6.76 million bpd in Dec. 2025 and staying near that level through the end of 2026 in EIA’s projections. [8]
Why it matters: ConocoPhillips has large Lower 48 operations, and investors closely watch whether U.S. shale can keep growing (bearish for crude) or is nearing constraints (potentially supportive for crude over time). The “Permian plateau” narrative can influence valuation multiples across the E&P group.
3) Wall Street analysts updated price targets multiple times this week
COP saw several notable (and conflicting) target changes:
- UBS maintained a Buy rating and raised its price target to $120 from $117 (Dec. 12). [9]
- Mizuho maintained an Outperform stance and raised its target to $121 from $120 (Dec. 12). [10]
- JPMorgancut its target to $102 from $112 while maintaining an Overweight/Buy-type view (reported Dec. 8 in TipRanks/The Fly coverage). [11]
- Johnson Rice downgraded the stock to Hold and lowered its target to $105 earlier in December (coverage recap). [12]
What this mix signals: Analysts aren’t uniformly bearish on ConocoPhillips the company—but they are increasingly cautious on commodity-driven downside risk if the market commits to a 2026 surplus narrative.
Fundamentals recap: what ConocoPhillips told investors most recently
While this week’s tape was dominated by oil prices and the Alaska headline, ConocoPhillips’ latest official operating and financial updates still anchor most longer-term forecasts.
In its Nov. 6, 2025 earnings release, ConocoPhillips reported:
- Adjusted EPS: $1.61 (Q3 2025) [13]
- Raised ordinary dividend by 8% to $0.84/share quarterly [14]
- Raised full-year 2025 production guidance:2.375 MMBOED and reduced 2025 operating cost guidance to $10.6B [15]
- Preliminary 2026 guidance: about $12B capex, $10.2B adjusted operating costs, and 0–2% underlying production growth [16]
- Willow (Alaska) capital guidance updated:$8.5B–$9.0B, with expected first oil narrowed to early 2029 [17]
- Shareholder returns in the quarter included $1.3B of share repurchases and $1.0B in dividends (over $2.2B total distributions) [18]
Dividend angle (SEO-friendly): Using the $0.84 quarterly dividend (annualized $3.36) and the Dec. 12 close ($95.54), COP’s indicated dividend yield is roughly ~3.5%, though yields move with price. [19]
ConocoPhillips stock forecast: what analysts are projecting now
Broadly, the Street’s consensus still leans constructive—just with a bigger emphasis on oil-price risk.
- MarketBeat’s compilation shows an average 12-month price target around $114.54 (with a target range of roughly $100 to $139), implying ~20% upside from mid-$95 levels. [20]
- Another widely tracked compilation (StockAnalysis) shows a similar picture: average target ~$115.17 with a “Buy” consensus. [21]
Earnings expectations (near-term)
Nasdaq’s earnings forecast table lists a consensus EPS estimate around 1.23 for the fiscal quarter ending Dec. 2025, with subsequent quarterly estimates also posted (subject to change). [22]
Next major scheduled catalyst: earnings
MarketBeat estimates ConocoPhillips’ next earnings release timing around early February 2026 (commonly listed as Feb. 5, 2026, though exact dates can be confirmed by the company). [23]
Technical and positioning snapshot (no hype, just levels traders are watching)
With COP trading in the mid-$90s, the chart has effectively become a tug-of-war between:
- Support zones: the low-$90s (this week’s lows near ~$92) [24]
- Resistance zones: the upper-$90s (this week’s highs near ~$97–$98) [25]
Some third-party technical dashboards also describe COP as trading above key moving averages (a constructive signal), though these indicators can flip quickly in commodity-driven selloffs. [26]
Week-ahead outlook for COP stock (Dec. 15–19, 2025): catalysts to watch
Here are the market events most likely to move COP next week—directly or indirectly—based on how energy equities have been trading.
1) Oil market narrative: surplus vs. balance (the 2026 debate)
Oil traders are weighing sharply different outlooks:
- Reuters noted the IEA projects a 2026 surplus (cited as 3.84 million bpd in the Reuters oil-market wrap), while OPEC sees the market closer to balance. [27]
For COP, that debate matters because it influences:
- crude price expectations,
- E&P valuation multiples,
- and buyback/dividend confidence assumptions.
2) U.S. supply outlook updates (EIA)
EIA’s recent commentary highlights a possible turning point in U.S. output:
- EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average ~13.5 million b/d in 2026, about 100,000 b/d less than 2025—a potential supportive factor for oil prices if demand holds. [28]
- Separately, EIA has said Alaska production is expected to rise (context that matters to Alaska-focused operators and infrastructure planning). [29]
3) Inventory reports: API (Tuesday) and EIA (Wednesday)
Energy markets often react first to inventory surprises—especially when crude is sitting near multi-month lows.
- EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report is typically released Wednesdays at 10:30 a.m. ET (subject to holiday exceptions). [30]
- The API report is widely watched as an earlier signal ahead of the EIA release. [31]
4) Macro data that can move oil via the dollar, rates, and growth expectations
Even for an oil producer, next week’s U.S. macro calendar matters because it can swing the U.S. dollar and “risk-on/risk-off” appetite.
The New York Fed’s economic calendar lists several major releases in the week ahead, including:
- Dec. 17: Advance Retail Sales (8:30 a.m. ET)
- Dec. 18: Consumer Price Index (8:30 a.m. ET) [32]
5) Alaska legal/regulatory headlines
After the Dec. 11 lawsuit filing, investors will be watching for:
- procedural updates (injunction requests, court scheduling),
- government responses,
- and any statements from ConocoPhillips or Alaska stakeholders. [33]
Legal timelines can be slow, but the headline velocity can still affect short-term trading.
Bottom line for ConocoPhillips stock heading into next week
ConocoPhillips enters the week ahead with a relatively clear setup:
- Company fundamentals: stable guidance framework, a raised dividend, buybacks, and a pipeline of major projects (with Willow timing now narrowed and costs updated). [34]
- Market reality: crude prices weakened meaningfully this week, and the market is fixated on whether 2026 becomes a “surplus year” (bearish for upstream equities) or whether U.S. shale constraints and OPEC+ discipline tighten the outlook. [35]
- Headline risk: Alaska permitting and litigation remains a live narrative after the new lawsuit. [36]
- Wall Street view: still broadly constructive with targets clustered around the low-to-mid $110s, but with some notable caution (target cuts/downgrades) tied to commodity risk. [37]
Practical take: If oil stabilizes and inventory/macro data cooperate, COP can trade back into the upper end of this week’s range. If crude resumes sliding, COP may struggle to decouple—regardless of solid company execution.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. apnews.com, 7. eplanning.blm.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.gurufocus.com, 10. www.gurufocus.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.gurufocus.com, 13. static.conocophillips.com, 14. static.conocophillips.com, 15. static.conocophillips.com, 16. static.conocophillips.com, 17. static.conocophillips.com, 18. static.conocophillips.com, 19. static.conocophillips.com, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. stockanalysis.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.tipranks.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.eia.gov, 29. www.eia.gov, 30. www.eia.gov, 31. www.cmegroup.com, 32. www.newyorkfed.org, 33. apnews.com, 34. static.conocophillips.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. apnews.com, 37. www.marketbeat.com
