NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 4:06 p.m. ET — Market Closed (Weekend)
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) heads into the final full week of 2025 with investors balancing two powerful forces: a broad U.S. equity market hovering near record levels, and an oil tape that has turned increasingly cautious about 2026 supply. COP shares last traded at about $91.54 at Friday’s close, with modest after-hours activity recorded late Friday evening. [1]
With U.S. markets shut for the weekend, the next meaningful catalyst for ConocoPhillips stock is likely to come from crude’s direction as futures reopen and repositioning picks up ahead of Monday’s regular session. That’s especially relevant after oil’s late-week slide on renewed concerns about a looming global supply glut. [2]
Where ConocoPhillips stock left off before the weekend
COP ended Friday around $91.54, down roughly 0.28% on the day. In extended trading, quotes late Friday were broadly unchanged—one read showed COP around $91.50 after-hours (6:30 p.m. ET), down about four cents from the regular close. [3]
The move was small, but the setup matters: late-December trading can be thin, and energy shares can gap on Monday when weekend headlines or crude futures reprice. Reuters described the post-Christmas session as muted, with major U.S. indexes finishing near record peaks as investors weighed Fed-cut expectations and year-end positioning. [4]
Oil is the macro driver investors can’t ignore right now
For ConocoPhillips, crude is still the “gravity” variable. Reuters reported that oil prices settled more than 2% lower on Friday as investors weighed a potential global supply glut, while also watching geopolitical developments tied to Russia-Ukraine peace discussions. [5]
In a separate Reuters commodities report dated Friday, Brent crude futures settled at $60.64 per barrel and WTI settled at $56.74, with both benchmarks down sharply on the day. Reuters also cited Aegis Hedging analysts saying geopolitical premiums have helped near-term support but haven’t changed the “oversupply narrative,” and pointed to the IEA’s December report estimating next year’s supply could exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day. [6]
That supply-demand framing is the immediate backdrop for COP: even if ConocoPhillips executes well operationally, the stock’s short-term multiple can compress if the market decides 2026 oil will be “lower for longer.”
What analysts are saying about COP stock now
Despite crude’s choppier outlook, Wall Street’s published targets for ConocoPhillips generally sit well above the current price.
- Consensus targets cluster in the mid-$110s. MarketBeat lists a $114.08 average price target across 26 analysts, implying roughly mid-20% upside from the current price area, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus. [7]
- A separate compilation from StockAnalysis shows a similar picture: an average target around $115.17 and a consensus “Buy.” [8]
Recent analyst-note headlines have been constructive as well:
- Jefferies reiterated a Buy rating and a $120 target, arguing ConocoPhillips offers an “underappreciated” differentiated resource base longer-term, and suggesting the company can lean on its balance sheet to sustain shareholder returns while catalysts develop. [9]
- UBS raised its target to $120 from $117 while keeping a Buy rating, framing energy as positioned for a stronger 2026 on improving oil and gas outlooks, M&A-driven value creation, and efficiency gains. [10]
- Mizuho lifted its target to $121 from $120 and kept an Outperform rating, even while acknowledging negative sentiment tied to oversupply concerns and elevated gas storage. [11]
Financial-media coverage over the last 24–48 hours has echoed that theme—highlighting bullish reiterations even as the sector grapples with commodity uncertainty. [12]
COP fundamentals: dividends, cash returns, and the “Willow + LNG” decade thesis
ConocoPhillips’ investment case remains centered on: (1) a relatively low cost of supply, (2) visible project-driven growth into the end of the decade, and (3) returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
In its most recent quarterly results coverage, Reuters reported that ConocoPhillips raised its ordinary dividend by 8% to $0.84 per share and projected about $12 billion in 2026 capital spending, $10.2 billion in operating costs, and up to 2% underlying production growth, with projects including the Willow development and U.S. Gulf Coast LNG ventures supporting the outlook. [13]
Still, investors also have a clear risk flag to monitor: Willow capex inflation. Reuters reported that ConocoPhillips raised Willow’s total project capital by $1.5 billion to a range of $8.5–$9.0 billion, with CEO Ryan Lance acknowledging management’s disappointment with higher costs while pointing to portfolio measures aimed at mitigating the increase. [14]
That same Reuters report also noted ConocoPhillips’ cost-cutting and efficiency efforts—including more than $1 billion in expected savings from the company’s Marathon Oil acquisition—helped cushion weaker oil prices. [15]
Meanwhile, a widely circulated opinion piece published Saturday by The Motley Fool argued that ConocoPhillips can sustain its program at relatively low oil prices and potentially expand free cash flow meaningfully by the end of the decade as major projects come online—an argument many long-term COP holders will recognize as the “durable inventory + cash returns” playbook. [16]
Next big date on the calendar: Q4 results and 2026 guidance
For investors looking beyond Monday’s open, the most important company-specific near-term event is ConocoPhillips’ fourth-quarter earnings.
ConocoPhillips has announced it will host its Q4 2025 earnings conference call on Feb. 5, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET, and said results will be released before the market opens that day, alongside discussion of 2026 guidance items. [17]
That event is likely to be a key “reset” moment for the stock—especially if crude remains volatile—because it can clarify capital discipline, project timelines, and the cadence of shareholder returns.
Technical snapshot into Monday: mixed-to-bearish signals, defined levels
From a technical perspective, TipRanks’ dashboard flagged an overall “Sell” consensus at the time of reading (Sunday afternoon ET), with mixed indicator readings: RSI near neutral and some signals (like MACD) more constructive, while multiple moving averages skewed bearish. TipRanks also published pivot-point levels that many traders use to frame support/resistance into the next session. [18]
For investors, the practical takeaway is less about any single indicator and more about this: the chart suggests COP is sitting in an area where the next decisive move may come from macro inputs—oil pricing, risk appetite, and year-end positioning—rather than a company headline over the weekend.
What investors should watch before the next session opens Monday
With the market closed now, here are the factors most likely to matter for COP at Monday’s open:
- Oil’s reopening tone and geopolitics: The market is actively debating whether 2026 brings a material oversupply. Reuters has tied Friday’s oil decline to that narrative and to headlines around Ukraine-related diplomacy—both of which can move crude quickly. [19]
- Broader risk appetite into year-end: Reuters described U.S. equities as finishing near record peaks in thin trade, with investors watching for a “Santa Claus rally” and weighing rate-cut expectations—conditions that can either support cyclical exposure like energy or keep flows concentrated elsewhere. [20]
- This week’s macro calendar and New Year’s schedule: Investopedia flagged a holiday-shortened week around New Year’s Day, with notable data points including pending home sales (Monday) and FOMC minutes (Tuesday)—and noted bond markets close early Wednesday while stock markets keep a normal schedule into New Year’s Eve. [21]
Bottom line
ConocoPhillips stock (COP) enters Monday with a familiar setup: the company’s long-term thesis—scale, inventory depth, disciplined capital returns—still draws mostly positive analyst targets, but the stock’s near-term direction is likely to be dictated by oil’s pricing story and the market’s confidence (or lack thereof) in 2026 balances. Investors heading into the next session will want to keep one eye on crude and the other on COP’s upcoming Q4 earnings and guidance, where management can reinforce (or revise) the cash-return roadmap that underpins the bull case. [22]
References
1. public.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. public.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.marketbeat.com, 8. stockanalysis.com, 9. www.tipranks.com, 10. www.tipranks.com, 11. www.tipranks.com, 12. www.insidermonkey.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.fool.com, 17. www.conocophillips.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.reuters.com
