New York, March 2, 2026, 18:45 EST — After-hours
- ConocoPhillips climbed roughly 4% Monday, leading U.S. oil majors while crude prices surged.
- Traders cited a jump in oil and gas prices, linking the move to shipping risks and turmoil in the Middle East.
- Next up: Tuesday. U.S. officials plan to lay out measures they say are intended to take the edge off the oil-price shock.
ConocoPhillips jumped 4.2% on Monday, closing at $118.24, as the rally spilled over to other major U.S. oil stocks. Exxon Mobil added about 1.1%, while Chevron climbed nearly 1.5%.
The bid moved alongside crude. Brent finished 6.7% higher at $77.74 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate, the main U.S. crude gauge, ended the session up 6.3% at $71.23. Strikes on Iran, followed by retaliation elsewhere in the region, amplified concerns around supply and shipping snarls. “Key questions are how much supply will be lost, for how long, and how do major powers react?” said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman at S&P Global. Reuters
Why it matters now: In a choppy session driven by geopolitical headlines, energy stocks stood out as rare gainers. Wall Street closed with only slight moves, as investors suggested oil would have to leap well above current levels to put broader pressure on risk assets. “I just don’t think the average market participant is that moved by the conflict until the price of oil gets to $100 a barrel,” said Alex Morris, CEO of F/m Investments. Reuters
Analysts had their say as well. On Monday, Goldman Sachs put ConocoPhillips onto its U.S. Conviction List, according to TheFly, sticking with a buy call and maintaining a $125 target.
Physical supply tightness is fueling the oil rally now. According to Reuters, some insurers are backing away from offering war-risk cover in parts of the Gulf. Coverage is being canceled, ships have suffered damage or are stuck, and movement through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped off significantly.
Supply disruptions are no longer limited to tanker traffic. Reuters said Qatar has stopped liquefied natural gas production, while a drone strike on Saudi Arabia’s largest home refinery triggered emergency shutdowns in several areas.
Inflation’s back in focus. U.S. retail gasoline just topped $3 a gallon—the first time since November. “Gasoline prices are psychologically powerful,” said Mark Malek, chief investment officer at Siebert Financial. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan flagged “heightened upward pressure” in the coming week. Reuters
For ConocoPhillips, it’s straightforward: when crude prices climb, realized prices and cash flow can jump quickly—especially as markets reassess the chances of longer-term disruptions. The real question is timing. Right now, the stock’s direction hinges on how much longer shipping snarls and outages drag on.
But the risks on the downside aren’t hard to spot. As Reuters columnist Ron Bousso points out, traders have mostly priced in a short-lived jolt, yet if the disruption drags on, storage could fill up and producers might have to cut output if exports remain stuck. On the flip side, any sign of easing tensions would likely pull the oil risk premium out fast—energy stocks could tumble right back.
Next up: traders are bracing for Washington’s response, expected Tuesday. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Treasury’s Scott Bessent and Energy’s Chris Wright are set to roll out measures targeting the oil-price spike.
