NEW YORK, Jan 9, 2026, 15:37 EST — Regular session
- Shares up 0.1% in late afternoon after a volatile two-day earnings reaction
- Company cut fiscal 2026 reported EPS outlook and warned beer demand could stay uneven
- Wall Street resets price targets; investors eye Jan. 13 U.S. inflation data next
Constellation Brands, Inc. shares edged higher on Friday as investors digested the brewer’s trimmed profit outlook and a blunt message from management that beer demand is still choppy. Shares were up 0.1% at $148.13, after trading between $146.12 and $149.72 in the session.
Constellation beat quarterly sales and profit estimates on Wednesday, then cut its fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share outlook to $9.72-$10.02 from $9.86-$10.16 and reiterated a 4% to 6% decline in organic net sales — a measure that strips out the impact of acquisitions and divestitures — for the year ending Feb. 28. That reset has put the focus back on beer volumes and on cost risks from the Trump administration’s move to lift the aluminum import tariff to 50%, which matters because 41% of Constellation’s Mexican beer packaging relies on aluminum.
On a post-earnings call on Thursday, CEO Bill Newlands said, “The beer category overall, it still remains challenged, and it’s largely around the Hispanic consumers,” a core customer base that accounts for nearly half of the company’s U.S. beer sales. Beer depletions — a gauge of how fast product moves through distributors — fell 3% in the quarter, the third straight decline. Morningstar analyst Dan Su said the company is positioning for a demand lift around the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which tends to “over-index” with Hispanic consumers. Reuters
In its earnings release, Constellation reported net sales of $2.223 billion for the quarter ended Nov. 30 and comparable EPS — which excludes certain items — of $3.06, versus reported EPS of $2.88. Beer net sales slipped 1% as shipment volumes fell 2.2%, though pricing helped; beer operating margin rose to 38% even as aluminum tariffs pushed costs higher. Modelo Especial depletions fell about 4% and Corona Extra nearly 9%, while Pacifico and Victoria grew more than 15% and 13%, the release showed.
A filing showed Constellation’s board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $1.02 per Class A share and $0.92 for its Class 1 convertible stock, payable Feb. 12 to holders of record on Jan. 29.
Brokerage notes on Friday ran in both directions. Goldman Sachs lifted its price target to $180 from $168 and kept a buy rating, while UBS trimmed its target to $168; Bernstein nudged its target to $197, according to published notes. Targets ranged from $120 underperform at BNP Paribas Exane to $205 buy at HSBC.
But the quarter still showed a 10% slide in net sales and a sharp drop in wine and spirits as Constellation sold some mainstream brands, leaving less cushion if beer volumes don’t settle. Barron’s said the turnaround “hinges on beer demand” in a U.S. alcohol market where consumers have been cautious. Barron’s
Next up, investors will watch U.S. December CPI data due on Jan. 13 and the Federal Reserve’s Jan. 27-28 policy meeting for clues on inflation and household spending. For Constellation, the near-term test is whether beer depletions stabilize and whether tariff-related costs seep further into margins.
