LIVINGSTON, N.J. — December 11, 2025
CoreWeave, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRWV), one of the most closely watched AI‑cloud stocks, closed Thursday’s session lower and then stabilized in after‑hours trading, as investors weighed fresh credit worries, sector‑wide AI jitters triggered by Oracle’s earnings, and a new AI video partnership with Runway.
By the closing bell, CoreWeave shares were changing hands around $87.38, down about 0.9% on the day, after trading between roughly $81 and $88.5 on heavy volume. Extended trading quotes show the stock ticking slightly higher in the low $87–88 range, recouping a small portion of the intraday loss. [1]
Here’s what happened after the bell on December 11 — and what traders and long‑term investors should watch before the U.S. market opens on Friday, December 12, 2025.
1. After‑Hours Snapshot: Where CoreWeave Stands Tonight
- Regular session close (Dec 11, 2025): about $87.4, down ~0.9% from Wednesday’s $88.16 close.
- Intraday range: Roughly $81.16 low to $88.48 high, with volume near 26 million shares, indicating intense trading interest. [2]
- Midday action: Around lunchtime, CoreWeave traded nearer $85–86, down about 2.7%, before recovering into the close. [3]
- After‑hours tone: Early extended trading showed a modest bounce of roughly 0.1–0.2% above the close, suggesting that some dip‑buyers stepped in once the regular session selling pressure faded. [4]
Despite Thursday’s drop, CoreWeave remains well above its 52‑week low near $33.5, but also far below its recent high around $187, leaving the stock down roughly 60% from its peak even after a triple‑digit year‑to‑date gain. [5]
2. Oracle’s Earnings Shock and AI Bubble Fears Hit CoreWeave
The primary macro driver of today’s move wasn’t an in‑house CoreWeave headline — it was Oracle.
Oracle’s fiscal Q2 2026 results showed revenue of about $16.1 billion, missing Wall Street expectations, and the company simultaneously ratcheted up AI‑related capital spending plans to around $50 billion, stoking fresh concern that AI infrastructure capex may be getting ahead of near‑term returns. [6]
Oracle’s stock plunged roughly 15%, erasing tens of billions in market value and sparking a broader sell‑off across AI‑linked names. [7] Benzinga and TipRanks both noted that CoreWeave traded lower in sympathy as:
- Investors questioned whether AI cloud and “neo‑cloud” infrastructure providers can generate sufficient cash flows to justify massive GPU and data‑center spending. [8]
- Oracle management explicitly contrasted its diversified platform with highly specialized “AI infrastructure neo‑clouds” such as CoreWeave, underlining competitive and margin pressure in the space. [9]
Put simply: if a tech giant like Oracle is feeling the strain from the AI build‑out, investors naturally worry about a smaller, more leveraged specialist like CoreWeave.
3. Debt, Convertible Notes and Rising Credit Jitters
Beyond today’s Oracle‑driven volatility, the single biggest overhang on CoreWeave’s stock remains its evolving capital structure.
A $2.25 Billion Convertible Note That Landed Today
Earlier this week CoreWeave:
- Announced a $2.0 billion private offering of convertible senior notes due 2031.
- Quickly upsized the deal to $2.25 billion after strong institutional demand. [10]
Key terms of the notes, according to the company’s filings and Rhea‑AI summaries: [11]
- Coupon: 1.75% per year, payable in cash.
- Maturity: December 1, 2031.
- Initial conversion price: equivalent to roughly $107.80 per share, about a 25% premium to the December 8 closing price.
- Settlement date:December 11, 2025 — today — meaning associated hedging and arbitrage flows were likely active in Thursday’s session.
- Use of proceeds: A portion (around $295 million) to fund capped call transactions (designed to offset dilution up to a much higher share price), with the rest for general corporate purposes, including funding its AI infrastructure roadmap.
The Parameter analysis published Thursday emphasizes that this new convertible layers on top of an already large debt stack that some analysts estimate near $14 billion, alongside a planned $13 billion capex program for 2025. [12] That combination has pushed CoreWeave’s five‑year credit default swaps above 700 basis points, signalling that bond investors perceive materially higher default risk than earlier in the year. [13]
Credit Facility Expansion and Prior Debt Raises
CoreWeave hasn’t been shy about tapping debt markets:
- Expanded revolving credit facility from $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion and extended its maturity to late 2029, led by a consortium including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and MUFG. [14]
- Recently issued $1.75 billion of 9% notes due 2031 and secured a $2.6 billion delayed‑draw term loan to fund its build‑out. [15]
On top of that, third‑quarter guidance was cut in November due to data‑center capacity issues, which triggered a one‑day drop of more than 16% and has now drawn the attention of class‑action specialists. The Pomerantz law firm disclosed today that it is investigating potential securities‑law claims on behalf of CoreWeave investors, citing the post‑earnings slide from around $105 to $88.30 on November 11. [16]
The result is a stock increasingly viewed through a credit‑risk lens, not just a growth‑story lens.
4. Insider Selling Adds Fuel to the Fire
Investors are also processing a wave of insider selling, particularly from co‑founder and Chief Development Officer Brannin McBee.
A MarketBeat report today highlights that: [17]
- McBee sold 63,835 shares on December 8 at an average price near $83.80, a transaction worth roughly $5.35 million.
- Across multiple transactions since September, McBee has disposed of hundreds of thousands of shares, with cumulative proceeds estimated near $196 million.
- SEC filings show both executed and proposed sales tied to McBee and affiliated trusts.
The same report notes that CoreWeave’s balance sheet carries a debt‑to‑equity ratio around 2.66, with current and quick ratios near 0.49, reflecting limited short‑term liquidity relative to obligations and a negative P/E ratio as the company remains unprofitable under GAAP. [18]
While insider selling doesn’t automatically imply trouble — especially after a huge post‑IPO run — the timing, alongside heavy debt issuance and a sector‑wide AI re‑rating, has clearly intensified investor anxiety. Parameter’s piece explicitly cites insider activity as a key contributor to after‑hours weakness earlier in the week, when CoreWeave briefly slid into the low‑$80s following a 2.8% regular‑session drop. [19]
5. Under the Surface, Growth Is Still Explosive
Lost amid the noise is the fact that CoreWeave’s operating performance remains extremely strong.
Q3 2025 Highlights
For the third quarter of 2025, CoreWeave reported: [20]
- Revenue: about $1.36 billion, up ~134% year over year from $584 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA: roughly $838 million, more than doubling from the prior year.
- Backlog: around $55.6 billion in contractual revenue, underscoring long‑term demand for AI compute.
- Major multi‑year customer deals, including:
- An up to $14.2 billion commitment from Meta.
- An expanded OpenAI commitment of up to $22.4 billion.
- Significant infrastructure expansion, adding roughly 120 MW of active power and bringing total active power to around 590 MW, with about 2.9 GW of contracted power.
CoreWeave also beat earnings expectations, posting a quarterly loss of $0.22 per share versus consensus expectations of a $0.36 loss, though it remains unprofitable overall and heavily reliant on external financing. [21]
New Deals and Product Launches
In just the past few weeks, CoreWeave has announced several growth‑oriented initiatives:
- Runway strategic partnership (Dec 11):
CoreWeave struck a new deal to power Runway’s next‑generation AI video and “world” models, supplying high‑end NVIDIA GB300 NVL72 systems, CoreWeave AI Object Storage with no egress or transaction fees, and tight integration with Weights & Biases for training and inference. [22] - Mission Control expansion (Dec 9):
The company broadened its Mission Control observability platform, delivering real‑time visibility across GPU, network and storage, GPU “straggler” detection and integration with Grafana Labs — all aimed at helping enterprise customers run large‑scale AI workloads more efficiently. [23] - Zero Egress Migration (Nov 13):
CoreWeave rolled out its 0EM program, offering to cover data‑egress costs when customers move large AI datasets from rival clouds like AWS, Azure or Google Cloud into its platform, combined with high‑speed data transfer tools. [24]
These moves are designed to lock in more AI training and inference workloads, deepen customer relationships, and differentiate CoreWeave as an “AI‑native” cloud in a field dominated by hyperscalers.
6. Analyst Ratings, Price Targets and Forecasts
Despite the recent drawdown, Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic on CoreWeave.
Street Targets and Consensus
TipRanks data today shows: [25]
- A “Moderate Buy” consensus on CRWV.
- 13 Buy, 10 Hold and 1 Sell ratings.
- An average price target around $133.8, implying roughly 50% upside from the high‑$80s share price.
MarketBeat’s latest compilation is slightly more conservative: [26]
- Overall consensus rating: “Hold”.
- A mix of Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell recommendations.
- Average target near $129.5, again pointing to substantial upside versus current levels.
TrendSpider’s snapshot notes that about 75% of analysts rate the stock a Buy, consistent with the idea that, at least for now, the Street still views CoreWeave as a long‑term winner in AI infrastructure, albeit with elevated risk. [27]
Recently:
- Roth Capital initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $110 price target, arguing that CoreWeave is positioned to become a top‑four AI cloud provider. [28]
- Freedom Capital Markets also started coverage with a Buy and a $100 target, calling the recent plunge “fear‑driven” relative to fundamentals. [29]
On the other side, several pieces from Motley Fool, Barron’s and GuruFocus highlight concerns around debt, customer concentration, and the risk of an “AI bubble” deflating, urging caution despite the long‑term story. [30]
7. Technical Picture: Oversold vs. Downtrend
From a technical‑analysis standpoint, CoreWeave is now firmly in “show‑me” territory.
Benzinga notes that as of Thursday afternoon: [31]
- CRWV was trading around $85–86,
- Roughly 24% below its 50‑day moving average (~$108.5), and
- About 22% below its 200‑day moving average (~$105.6),
confirming a bearish medium‑ and long‑term trend even before the late‑day bounce.
TrendSpider data shows: [32]
- A last price around $87.35, down 1–2% over the past 30 days.
- 52‑week range: roughly $33.5 to $187.
- Next earnings date: currently projected for February 14, 2026.
- Recent options flow skewed toward calls, including sizeable near‑term call activity around the $87 and $91 strikes expiring in mid‑December, alongside some protective puts.
Meanwhile, short interest stands near 6% of the float, with insiders owning about 25% and institutions roughly 56% of outstanding shares. [33] That mix can amplify volatility both on the downside (if shorts press their bets) and on the upside (if positive news sparks a squeeze).
8. What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 12, 2025
Heading into Friday’s session, here are the key flashpoints for CoreWeave watchers:
- Overnight reaction to the Runway deal
- Does the market start to refocus on the long‑term AI video opportunity and CoreWeave’s role in powering next‑generation generative video models? [34]
- Any early commentary from analysts or tech media highlighting the strategic importance of Runway as a flagship customer could influence pre‑market sentiment.
- Follow‑through on Oracle‑driven AI jitters
- Thursday saw AI names wobble after Oracle’s miss and massive capex plans revived “AI bubble” chatter. [35]
- Watch U.S. futures and overnight headlines: if Oracle stabilizes or rebounds, some pressure on CoreWeave could ease; renewed weakness could spill over again.
- Post‑settlement flows from the convertible notes
- With the $2.25 billion convertible settling today, market makers and hedge funds may continue delta‑hedging activity, shorting and covering CRWV shares around key levels. [36]
- Unusual options or short‑interest data into the open may hint at whether hedging pressure is peaking or still building.
- Legal headlines and class‑action chatter
- The Pomerantz investigation made the risk of shareholder litigation more visible. [37]
- Additional law firms often join in after such announcements; new press releases overnight could reinforce a headline overhang even if the underlying business continues to perform.
- Support in the low‑$80s and resistance around $90–$91
- Parameter’s piece flagged the low‑$80s as an important short‑term battleground after prior after‑hours slides. [38]
- On the upside, Thursday’s trading showed sellers stepping in before $90–91, in line with nearby call strikes. If CRWV can reclaim and hold that zone, technicians may start talking about a potential relief rally; failure could see re‑tests of recent lows.
- Macro data and interest‑rate expectations
- Highly leveraged, long‑duration growth stocks like CoreWeave are sensitive to interest‑rate expectations. Any fresh U.S. economic data or Fed commentary scheduled for Friday that shifts rate‑cut odds could ripple through CRWV’s valuation.
9. Key Risks: Why the Stock Is Under Scrutiny
Even bullish analysts and long‑term believers acknowledge several substantial risks:
- Leverage and refinancing risk: High debt, rising credit spreads, and reliance on capital markets leave CoreWeave vulnerable if risk appetite sours or rates stay higher for longer. [39]
- Customer concentration: Large, multi‑billion‑dollar commitments from a handful of mega‑customers (OpenAI, Meta, etc.) are an asset — but also a vulnerability if any relationship is repriced, delayed or restructured. [40]
- Execution and capacity constraints: The company already cited data‑center capacity issues when cutting 2025 guidance, showing how delays can cascade through its financials. [41]
- Competitive pressure: Hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft and Google, as well as rival “neo‑clouds”, are racing to capture the same AI workloads, with Oracle’s commentary underscoring intensifying competition. [42]
- Litigation and regulatory exposure: Class‑action investigations, plus broader scrutiny of AI data‑center financing and circular deals, add another layer of uncertainty. [43]
10. Long‑Term Opportunity: AI Cloud at Scale
For investors willing to stomach volatility, the bull case rests on several pillars:
- Explosive demand for AI compute: CoreWeave sits at the intersection of GPU supply and AI demand, with a backlog of more than $55 billion and marquee customers across the AI ecosystem. [44]
- Specialized, AI‑native architecture: The company touts higher model‑utilization rates and strong platform “goodput,” alongside recognition such as SemiAnalysis’ Platinum ClusterMAX™ rating for AI infrastructure. [45]
- Rapid revenue growth: Triple‑digit revenue growth and strong adjusted EBITDA margins suggest significant operating leverage if CoreWeave can manage its debt load and capital intensity. [46]
- Analyst upside: Consensus targets around $130–135 imply that if execution remains on track and AI demand continues, the current price could represent a high‑risk, high‑reward entry point rather than a value trap — though that is far from guaranteed. [47]
11. Bottom Line: A Volatile Tug‑of‑War Into Friday’s Open
As of after‑hours on December 11, 2025, CoreWeave’s stock sits in the middle of a tug‑of‑war:
- On one side: runaway growth, huge backlog, and new partnerships like Runway that reinforce its position as a core AI infrastructure provider. [48]
- On the other: heavy leverage, insider selling, a newly upsized convertible note, and rising credit spreads, all against a backdrop of renewed worries that AI capex spending may have sprinted ahead of near‑term profits. [49]
Heading into the December 12 open, traders will be watching whether today’s after‑hours stabilization marks the start of a base‑building phase in the high‑$80s — or just a brief pause before another leg lower if AI macro sentiment or credit concerns worsen.
Either way, CoreWeave is likely to remain one of the most volatile and closely followed AI stocks on the market, and any new headlines on debt, customers or regulation could move the stock sharply in either direction.
Important: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, or a prediction of future performance. Investors should do their own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.
References
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