As of 2:05 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, U.S. markets are open for a full regular session (after Christmas Day’s closure and an early close on Dec. 24). [1]
CoreWeave stock price action: where CRWV stands right now
CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV) was recently trading around $76.87, down about 2.5% versus the prior close, after swinging between roughly $75.73 and $79.34 with ~10.2 million shares traded intraday.
The broader tape looks mixed-to-flat in the midday holiday lull: the SPY ETF (S&P 500 proxy) is essentially flat, while QQQ (Nasdaq-100 proxy) is modestly higher. NYSE’s own daily commentary flagged a “very quiet day” after Christmas—classic conditions for thin liquidity and outsized single‑stock moves. [2]
One reason CRWV can feel extra jumpy: the company itself warns that its limited public float can amplify volatility in either direction. [3]
Why CoreWeave is in the spotlight heading into year-end
CoreWeave sits near the center of the AI infrastructure boom—leasing and operating data center capacity packed with high-end GPUs, then renting that compute to AI labs and enterprises. Its own third‑quarter release described “unprecedented demand,” highlighted an expanding backlog, and pointed to major customer wins across hyperscalers and AI labs. [4]
Recent headlines have reinforced both sides of the bull/bear debate:
The bull case catalyst: “big-ticket” contracts and strategic backstops
- Meta deal: CoreWeave disclosed a multi‑year agreement with Meta valued up to ~$14.2 billion, which Barron’s noted as a diversification boost beyond the OpenAI/Microsoft orbit. [5]
- OpenAI expansion: CoreWeave has pointed to expanded commitments with OpenAI totaling up to ~$22.4 billion (including a noted ~$6.5 billion expansion). [6]
- Nvidia capacity agreement: Reuters reported CoreWeave and Nvidia signed a $6.3 billion deal in which Nvidia would purchase unused CoreWeave cloud capacity through 2032—designed to cushion utilization risk if demand fluctuates. [7]
The bear case catalyst: leverage, funding structures, and “AI infrastructure” risk narratives
A growing stack of reporting has questioned whether the AI data-center buildout is becoming financially fragile, with debt structures and private credit playing a bigger role than many equity investors realize. The Financial Times highlighted how major AI-linked players (including CoreWeave) have used special purpose vehicles and private capital to finance data-center growth, warning that the risk can be harder to see when liabilities move off balance sheets. [8] Meanwhile, features from The Verge and The Atlantic have pointed to GPU-backed lending and leverage as potential stress points if demand, chip values, or power economics shift. [9]
Importantly, investors should reconcile that macro narrative with CoreWeave’s own disclosures: in its Sept. 30, 2025 Form 10‑Q, the company said it did not have off-balance-sheet financing arrangements as defined in that filing. [10] (That doesn’t “resolve” the debate—it just means the details and definitions matter, and filings are where investors can verify the structure.)
Fundamentals snapshot: rapid growth, big backlog—plus the cost of scaling
CoreWeave’s latest quarterly reporting painted a classic high-growth infrastructure profile:
- Q3 2025 revenue: about $1.36B, up roughly 134% year-over-year in the 10‑Q/earnings materials. [11]
- Revenue backlog: the company reported ~$55.6B as of Sept. 30, 2025 (its definition includes remaining performance obligations plus other future revenue estimates tied to committed contracts). [12]
- Guidance reset risk: Reuters reported CoreWeave revised down its 2025 revenue forecast due to delays tied to a third‑party data center partner—an operational reminder that even strong demand can be constrained by buildout timelines. [13]
But scaling AI compute is capital-intensive, and CoreWeave’s filings show why investors track financing almost as closely as bookings:
- In the Sept. 30, 2025 10‑Q, CoreWeave reported total indebtedness of ~$14.0B, alongside $1.9B in cash/cash equivalents/marketable securities (plus $1.1B restricted cash). [14]
- The same filing disclosed $3.6B of cash flows dedicated to debt service over the first nine months of 2025, compared with $1.5B net cash provided by operating activities in that period. [15]
- Costs tied to operating data centers jumped meaningfully, including increases in rent and utilities/power spend as infrastructure expanded. [16]
A key recent financing headline: low-coupon convertible notes
On Dec. 8/11, CoreWeave filed an 8‑K detailing completion of a private offering of $2.5875B of 1.75% convertible senior notes due 2031, including an initial conversion price disclosed around $107.80 per share (at issuance), plus capped call transactions intended to reduce dilution. [17]
This matters for equity holders because convertibles can be a cheaper cost of capital than straight high-yield debt—while still introducing future dilution/settlement dynamics if the stock rallies.
Analyst forecasts: what “Wall Street consensus” looks like (and why it varies)
Forecast aggregators currently show a wide dispersion in CoreWeave price targets—typical for a fast-growing, highly leveraged infrastructure story with huge TAM optimism on one side and “boom/bust” fears on the other.
- MarketBeat shows an average target around $127.70 (with a wide high/low range). [18]
- Investing.com’s consensus page also lists an average target in the ~$127 area, again with a broad spread between bullish and bearish estimates. [19]
- TipRanks similarly shows a triple‑digit average target with substantial dispersion. [20]
Remember: these are aggregations, and they can differ by methodology, covered banks, and update cadence—so treat them as a sentiment snapshot, not a single “truth.”
The news investors are scanning today (and why it matters)
Here are the items most likely to be influencing attention into the afternoon:
- Insider sales / Form 4s
MarketBeat and other outlets highlighted notable insider transactions in December. Investors who want the primary-source version can review the underlying SEC Form 4 filings (e.g., sales reported around Dec. 22). [21]
Context matters: insider sales can reflect diversification, tax planning, or 10b5‑1 plans—not necessarily a bearish signal—yet in a high-volatility name they can affect sentiment quickly. - Today’s “investigation” PR cycle
A law firm press release circulated on Dec. 26 encouraging investors with losses to contact the firm regarding an investigation. These releases are common across volatile stocks; investors typically separate the headline risk from what’s actually alleged and what the company has disclosed. [22] - Holiday microstructure + seasonality
Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves—especially for stocks with limited float. Separately, MarketWatch cited Bespoke Investment Group research suggesting Dec. 26 has historically been a strong day for the S&P 500 (useful context for the broader tape, even if single-stock drivers dominate). [23]
Key risks CoreWeave itself tells investors to watch
CoreWeave’s 10‑Q risk factors spell out the pressure points in plain language—useful as a checklist before you trade the name:
- Power availability and cost: inability to access sufficient power—or higher procurement costs—could harm operations. [24]
- Customer concentration: a large share of revenue tied to a limited number of customers increases sensitivity to renewals, timing shifts, or renegotiations. [25]
- Leverage + variable-rate exposure: substantial debt, covenants, and floating-rate facilities can tighten flexibility, especially if financing conditions worsen. [26]
- Controls and reporting: the company disclosed that disclosure controls were not effective at a “reasonable assurance level” as of Sept. 30, 2025 due to material weaknesses described in the filing (with remediation steps discussed). [27]
- Stock volatility: limited float and headline-driven trading can push CRWV far from fundamentals in either direction. [28]
What to know before the next session (and into today’s close)
Because it’s 2:05 p.m. ET, there’s still time for late-day repositioning and potential after-hours headlines. If you’re trading or investing around CRWV, here’s the practical “next session” checklist:
- Know the calendar: Markets were closed Dec. 25 and closed early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Dec. 24, but today (Dec. 26) is a normal session—with the next regular session after Friday typically on Monday, Dec. 29. [29]
- Watch for filings and financing updates: With CoreWeave actively using multiple funding channels (including the recent convert offering), new 8‑Ks, amendments, or capacity/financing announcements can move the stock quickly. [30]
- Track Nvidia as a read-through: CoreWeave is closely tied to Nvidia’s GPU ecosystem; NVDA is higher today, and AI-sector headlines can spill over. [31]
- Earnings timing: Nasdaq’s page lists an estimated early-February window for the next report (the company may confirm later), so expectations can build into January. [32]
- Respect liquidity: Post-holiday conditions can mean wider spreads and sharper intraday swings—especially in names with limited float. [33]
Bottom line: CoreWeave remains one of the market’s most closely watched “AI infrastructure” equities—supported by giant contract headlines and strategic partnerships, but shadowed by leverage, buildout execution, and an increasingly loud debate about AI data-center financing risk. Today’s dip looks consistent with that push‑pull narrative playing out in a quiet holiday session. [34]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.nyse.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. investors.coreweave.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. investors.coreweave.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.ft.com, 9. www.theverge.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. investors.coreweave.com, 12. investors.coreweave.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. www.prnewswire.com, 23. www.marketwatch.com, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.nyse.com, 30. www.sec.gov, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.nasdaq.com, 33. www.nyse.com, 34. www.reuters.com
