CoreWeave, Inc. (Nasdaq: CRWV) ended the Dec. 16, 2025 session lower again as the market’s once-white-hot “AI infrastructure” trade continues to cool. The stock closed at $69.59, down 3.81% on the day, after trading between $67.92 and $71.42 with about 13.33 million shares changing hands. [1]
That drop caps a sharp three-session slide: CRWV fell from $87.38 on Dec. 11 to $69.59 on Dec. 16—about a 20% decline in less than a week, based on the same historical pricing record. [2]
And zooming out further, the pullback is even more dramatic. Multiple market commentaries circulating today highlight that CoreWeave is trading far below its June peak (often cited around $187). [3]
So what changed—and what should investors watch next?
CoreWeave stock price action: a “neocloud” reality check
The story around CoreWeave in late 2025 is less about demand for AI compute disappearing and more about execution timing, financing costs, and investor patience.
Several fresh headlines published today frame CRWV’s selloff as part of a wider reassessment of the economics of AI data centers:
- The Wall Street Journal described a steep drop in CoreWeave’s market value in recent weeks, tying the decline to AI-bubble concerns, a failed deal, and public criticism from short seller Jim Chanos—while also pointing to construction delays and questions about profitability and leverage. [4]
- MarketWatch reported on Chanos doubling down on bearish views of AI data centers, arguing that the business is capital-intensive and vulnerable to GPU obsolescence—comments that have resonated as “AI capex” becomes a hotter risk factor again. [5]
- Investors.com highlighted broader pressure across AI-related names after Oracle disclosures and capex fears, noting that CoreWeave was among the stocks sliding as the market re-prices the cost of building out AI infrastructure. [6]
This isn’t just sentiment. Credit and capital markets are increasingly central to the CoreWeave narrative—because CoreWeave is scaling in a way that requires enormous funding, and Wall Street is watching the terms of that funding with growing intensity.
What CoreWeave actually does (and why it matters for the stock)
CoreWeave positions itself as an “AI hyperscaler,” selling GPU-accelerated cloud infrastructure and capacity that enterprises and AI labs can rent instead of building everything themselves. [7]
In 2025, CoreWeave has leaned heavily into large, multi‑year contracts and partnerships designed to lock in utilization and reduce demand risk:
- In its Q3 2025 release, CoreWeave said it entered an up to ~$14.2 billion multi-year deal with Meta, and expanded its OpenAI partnership with an up to ~$6.5 billion deal—bringing total OpenAI commitments it cited to up to ~$22.4 billion. [8]
- Reuters has also reported on CoreWeave’s large agreements, including the Meta and OpenAI contracts, emphasizing how central these “anchor customers” are to the growth story. [9]
- Reuters previously reported a $6.3 billion cloud computing capacity arrangement with Nvidia, structured so Nvidia would purchase unused capacity through 2032—an attempt to help insulate CoreWeave from sudden demand gaps. [10]
This is the heart of the bull thesis: demand is real, contracts are huge, and the backlog is substantial. But the bear thesis focuses on how expensive it is to deliver that capacity—and what happens if timelines slip.
CoreWeave’s latest financial snapshot: rapid growth, thin GAAP margins, heavy interest expense
CoreWeave’s results show a business scaling at extraordinary speed, but also one carrying substantial costs.
In Q3 2025, CoreWeave reported:
- Revenue:$1.3647 billion
- Operating income:$51.85 million (about a 4% operating margin)
- Net loss:$110.12 million
- Net interest expense:$310.56 million [11]
That interest line is especially important to how the market is valuing CRWV today: CoreWeave may show strong non-GAAP profitability metrics, but interest costs are large and can grow quickly as the company finances more GPU and data center buildouts.
On non‑GAAP measures, one widely circulated summary of the Q3 materials cited adjusted EBITDA of ~$838 million and an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~61%. [12]
CoreWeave’s Q2 2025 release similarly showed very high adjusted EBITDA margins (62%) alongside a sizable GAAP net loss and significant interest expense—another reminder that investors are simultaneously looking at (1) how profitable the installed base can be and (2) how expensive it is to build it. [13]
The guidance that moved the stock: “value preserved,” but timing slipped
A key reason CoreWeave has struggled since mid‑November is the market’s reaction to guidance cuts tied to deployment delays.
CoreWeave’s FY 2025 outlook (issued Nov. 10, 2025) guides to:
- Revenue:$5.05–$5.15 billion
- Adjusted operating income:$690–$720 million
- Interest expense:$1.21–$1.25 billion
- Capital expenditures:$12–$14 billion [14]
Reuters reported that CoreWeave revised its 2025 revenue forecast downward due to delays at a third-party data center partner, even as it posted strong Q3 revenue growth; it also noted CoreWeave’s emphasis that contract value was preserved even if revenue recognition shifted. [15]
That distinction—contract value vs. timing—is one of the most important ideas for CRWV investors right now:
- If delays are truly temporary, then the backlog may simply “push out,” supporting a recovery narrative.
- If delays become recurring (power constraints, supply chain constraints, construction bottlenecks), then a backlog can look less like a moat and more like a financing obligation.
The capital markets catalyst: CoreWeave’s convertible notes and dilution math
In early December, CoreWeave’s financing strategy moved back into the spotlight.
CoreWeave announced and then priced an upsized convertible offering: a private offering of $2.25 billion aggregate principal amount of 1.75% convertible senior notes due 2031, upsized from an initially announced $2.0 billion deal. [16]
Shortly after, a CoreWeave Form 8‑K provided key final terms, including that the company completed a private offering totaling $2.5875 billion in principal amount (reflecting the full exercise of the purchasers’ option). [17]
The same SEC filing disclosed details investors are now modeling into dilution and leverage scenarios, including:
- Interest rate: 1.75%
- Maturity: Dec. 1, 2031
- Initial conversion price: about $107.80 per share
- Capped call transactions: designed to reduce dilution up to a cap price initially $215.60 per share, with a disclosed cost of about $340 million [18]
Why this matters for the stock:
- Convertibles can be a cheaper form of capital than high-coupon debt—helpful when funding is tight.
- But they also create a visible future share issuance pathway, and the market often trades the stock with those conversion dynamics in mind.
Commentary in financial press also emphasized that investors are weighing CoreWeave’s overall debt load and future capex demands as the company races to build capacity. [19]
The deal that didn’t happen: Core Scientific merger terminated
Another overhang has been the collapse of CoreWeave’s proposed acquisition of Core Scientific.
CoreWeave announced in July 2025 it would acquire Core Scientific in an all‑stock transaction, explicitly positioning the deal as a way to “verticalize” data center ownership following its March 2025 IPO. [20]
But on Oct. 30, Reuters reported that Core Scientific terminated the agreement after shareholders voted against it, following months of opposition and proxy advisory scrutiny. [21]
CoreWeave also confirmed that the merger agreement had been terminated due to the vote, while stating it expected the commercial partnership to continue. [22]
Core Scientific separately stated it terminated the agreement and would remain publicly traded under its own ticker. [23]
For CoreWeave stock, the market impact is two-sided:
- Bulls saw the deal as strategic vertical integration (more control of power and footprint).
- Bears saw it as complexity and potential dilution—especially in a volatile tape.
The termination removes execution risk from an M&A integration, but it also removes a potential path to more owned infrastructure.
Forecasts and analyst outlook: consensus optimism vs. rising caution
Even amid today’s volatility, analyst forecasts remain mixed rather than uniformly bearish.
One widely referenced snapshot from TipRanks lists CoreWeave as a “Moderate Buy” with an average price target in the low‑$130s and a wide target range. [24]
MarketBeat has similarly described a “Moderate Buy” consensus and a triple-digit consensus price target (based on the analyst set it tracks). [25]
At the same time, recent analyst actions underscore why the stock is swinging so violently:
- Investing.com reported JPMorgan downgraded CoreWeave and reduced its price target, citing concerns including delays (as characterized in the headline/summary). [26]
- Investing.com also reported Morgan Stanley raised its price target (still reflecting a cautious recalibration rather than unbridled bullishness). [27]
The takeaway: forecasts still point to substantial upside if execution stabilizes, but the dispersion in targets reflects genuine uncertainty about (1) the durability of margins once capacity scales and (2) the cost of capital needed to get there.
The bull case for CRWV stock: backlog, anchor customers, and “AI compute scarcity”
Supporters of CoreWeave’s long-term story tend to emphasize three pillars:
- A massive stated revenue backlog
CoreWeave reported $55.6 billion in revenue backlog as of Sept. 30, 2025. [28] - Big-name counterparties
The company has highlighted major contract expansions with Meta and OpenAI. [29] - Demand hedges and partnerships
Reuters has described the Nvidia capacity arrangement as a way to reduce the risk of unused capacity and calm investor concerns about filling data centers beyond top clients. [30]
If the market rotates back toward “growth at scale,” CRWV could rebound sharply—especially given how far it has fallen from prior highs. [31]
The bear case for CRWV stock: capital intensity, credit risk, and GPU obsolescence concerns
The bearish view is not necessarily that “AI is over.” It’s that the economics of being a middleman in AI infrastructure are unforgiving.
Key risks repeatedly cited in current coverage include:
- Credit tightening risk for neo-cloud tenants
Reuters Breakingviews highlighted how neo-clouds like CoreWeave can concentrate credit risk for data center developers and noted that credit markets have signaled rising perceived risk—particularly when guidance shifts because of delivery delays. [32] - Financing feedback loop
The same Reuters analysis warned that higher perceived tenant risk can raise financing costs, making future projects harder to justify—exactly the kind of loop that can hurt high-growth infrastructure models. [33] - Skepticism about the profitability of AI data centers
MarketWatch reported Jim Chanos comparing the setup to past boom-bust cycles and warning about commoditization and obsolescence dynamics. [34] - Execution delays
Reuters reported that CoreWeave’s revised forecast was driven by delays at a third-party data center partner—an operational issue rather than a demand collapse, but one that still matters enormously to near-term cash flow optics. [35]
Meanwhile, CoreWeave’s own reported Q3 numbers show why investors are sensitive: GAAP operating margins were slim, and interest expense was large—so small changes in timing or cost of capital can have oversized effects on equity value. [36]
What investors should watch next for CoreWeave stock
If you’re tracking CRWV into year-end and early 2026, the next catalysts are likely to revolve around a few measurable items:
- Evidence that delayed deployments are catching up
The market will want proof that pushed-out revenue doesn’t become permanently “lost” revenue. - Capex discipline vs. growth
CoreWeave is guiding to $12–$14 billion of 2025 capex. [37]
Any changes—up or down—could move the stock because capex speaks directly to both growth and funding needs. - Interest expense trajectory
CoreWeave guided to $1.21–$1.25 billion in 2025 interest expense. [38]
In a story where leverage matters, investors will focus on whether the cost of capital is stabilizing or rising. - Customer concentration and contract quality
Large deals are bullish, but the market increasingly differentiates between backlog that is “high-quality, financeable” and backlog that is operationally difficult to deliver on time. - Convertible overhang dynamics
With the 2031 converts now in place, traders will watch how the stock behaves around key technical levels and how hedging flows evolve. [39]
Bottom line on Dec. 16, 2025: CoreWeave is still a growth story—but now it’s a credit-and-execution story too
CoreWeave remains one of the most closely watched pure plays on the AI infrastructure buildout, with eye-catching contract headlines and huge growth rates. [40]
But today’s CRWV price action shows that, for public-market investors, “AI demand” is no longer enough. The stock is being priced on whether CoreWeave can deliver capacity on schedule, fund expansion at acceptable terms, and prove durable profitability in a business that many critics argue is structurally capital intensive. [41]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.tipranks.com, 4. www.wsj.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.investors.com, 7. investors.coreweave.com, 8. investors.coreweave.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. investors.coreweave.com, 12. www.marketscreener.com, 13. investors.coreweave.com, 14. s205.q4cdn.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. investors.coreweave.com, 17. www.sec.gov, 18. www.sec.gov, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. investors.coreweave.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. investors.coreweave.com, 23. investors.corescientific.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. investors.coreweave.com, 29. investors.coreweave.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.tipranks.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.marketwatch.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. investors.coreweave.com, 37. s205.q4cdn.com, 38. s205.q4cdn.com, 39. www.sec.gov, 40. investors.coreweave.com, 41. www.reuters.com
