Costco (COST) Stock Before the December 1, 2025 Open: Price, Forecast and Late‑November News Investors Need

Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST) heads into the first trading day of December after a choppy 2025 in the markets. The warehouse-club giant has continued to post solid growth in sales, earnings and membership income, yet its stock has lagged the broader market and remains priced at a rich premium.

Below is a concise, investor‑focused look at where Costco stock stands going into the U.S. market open on Monday, December 1, 2025, based on the latest news, forecasts and analysis from November 28–30, 2025.

Where Costco stock stands heading into December 1

Last close: Costco shares finished the shortened holiday week on Friday, November 28 at $913.59, up 0.59% on the day. After‑hours trading on the same date was essentially flat at around $913.00. ^[1]
Trading range: COST now trades roughly 15% below its 52‑week high around $1,078, and only a few percent above its 52‑week low in the high‑$860s. ^[2]
Valuation snapshot:
- Trailing P/E ~50x
- Price‑to‑sales ~1.5x, price‑to‑book ~13.9x
- Market cap ~$405 billion
  These metrics are well above Costco’s sector peers and even above its own five‑year averages, according to Finviz and Webull. ^[3]

Performance-wise, Costco has slipped a few percent over the last 12 months, while the S&P 500 has gained roughly the mid‑teens percentage range over the same period, as highlighted in a recent Barchart analyst review. ^[4] That underperformance is central to much of the late‑November commentary.

What the latest results say: still a powerhouse business

Costco’s most recent reported quarter, Q4 FY 2025 (reported September 25), remains the fundamental backdrop for all late‑November analysis:

Revenue: About $86.2 billion, up 8% year over year, slightly ahead of expectations. ^[5]
Earnings:EPS of $5.87, up about 11% and modestly beating consensus. ^[6]
Comparable sales: Roughly +5.7% overall, with e‑commerce growing in the low‑teens. ^[7]
Membership economics:
- Around 80 million members worldwide
- Membership renewal rates close to 90%
- Membership fee income ~$1.7 billion in Q4, up roughly 17% year over year, according to a late‑November Motley Fool breakdown. ^[8]

Barchart notes that membership fee income for the full year jumped more than 14%, driven by growth in higher‑priced Executive memberships and new perks. ^[9] Since membership fees account for a large share of Costco’s operating income, that recurring revenue stream is a key pillar of the long‑term bull case.

Fresh commentary from November 28–30: bulls vs. valuation worriers

1. “Down 7% to buy right now”: the bullish growth argument

On November 29, Motley Fool published “1 Growth Stock Down 7% to Buy Right Now”, highlighting Costco as a high‑quality growth stock temporarily out of favor. ^[10] Key points from that analysis:

Over roughly the last year, Costco’s share price has slipped about 7%, even as its sales and earnings have continued to rise. ^[11]
The author underscores Costco’s “boring but beautiful” business model: slow‑and‑steady growth in revenue and EPS out of a highly predictable membership‑club structure. ^[12]
The piece emphasizes Costco’s competitive moat:
- ~80 million members
- Renewal rates near 90%
- Membership fees rising double‑digits to $1.7 billion in the quarter
- A dominant share of the U.S. warehouse‑club market
The conclusion: the recent share price pullback is framed as a buy‑the‑dip opportunity for long‑term investors, not a sign of structural weakness. ^[13]

In other words, this camp sees Costco as exactly the kind of durable compounder that can quietly make investors wealthier over many years, even if the stock looks expensive on near‑term metrics.

2. “Best Stock to Buy Right Now: Target vs. Costco”: quality vs. price

Also on November 29, another Motley Fool article directly compared Target (TGT) and Costco, asking which is the better buy right now. ^[14] The author’s view:

Operationally, Costco is the clear winner:
- Q4 same‑store sales up 5.7% vs. Target’s decline of 2.7%.
- Costco’s digital sales grew ~13.6%, while Target’s online sales grew only modestly, with in‑store comps falling. ^[15]
However, when it comes to valuation, the article notes that Costco’s price‑to‑sales, price‑to‑earnings and price‑to‑book ratios all sit above their five‑year averages even after the pullback. Target’s multiples, in contrast, are well below their recent history. ^[16]
The takeaway: Costco is framed as a wonderful business but an expensive stock, while Target is more of a turnaround value idea with a high dividend yield.

Crucially, the piece concludes that Costco may be “best left on the wish list” at current prices, especially for investors sensitive to valuation. ^[17]

3. Costco as a “trending stock”: high quality, high multiple

A late‑November note from Zacks, syndicated across several platforms, flagged Costco as a “trending stock” on Zacks.com thanks to elevated investor interest. Because of rate limits and partial access, we only have snippets from aggregated sites, but they convey two main ideas:

Costco trades at “almost 50 times trailing earnings”, roughly in line with Finviz/Webull’s ~50x P/E reading. ^[18]
Despite that rich multiple, the company has delivered positive revenue growth in 33 of the last 34 fiscal years, underscoring Costco’s long record of execution. ^[19]

Zacks’ broader coverage earlier in the week also described Costco as a “strong growth stock”, citing style‑score metrics that favor its growth profile and earnings momentum. ^[20]

4. “Worst performance vs. the S&P in 23 years”: a stark relative picture

On November 30, Motley Fool published a piece (title visible via snippet) arguing that Costco is on track for its worst relative performance vs. the S&P 500 in over two decades, then asking whether the blue‑chip dividend stock is a “no‑brainer buy” for 2026. ^[21]

While we can’t access the full text due to a 403 restriction, the title lines up with data from Barchart and Finviz: Costco has lagged both the S&P 500 and the consumer‑staples sector over the past year, despite continued growth in sales and earnings. ^[22] The theme echoes other late‑November coverage: great business, frustrating recent stock performance.

Wall Street’s latest Costco forecasts going into December

Several services updated or recapped analyst sentiment on COST in November, giving a clear snapshot of expectations heading into December 1:

Consensus ratings: solidly positive, not euphoric

AnaChart (data scraped November 29) shows 22 analysts actively covering COST with: ^[23]
- 77.8% Buy, 19.4% Hold, 2.8% Sell
- A current average price target of about $987.50, implying roughly 8% upside from Friday’s close near $913.
- A historical high target of $1,225 and low target of $907, with an overall long‑term average target near $1,070.80.
Barchart aggregates about 35 analysts, describing Costco’s rating as “Moderate Buy” with: ^[24]
- 16 “Strong Buy”, 4 “Moderate Buy” and 15 “Hold” recommendations.
- A mean price target of $1,078, implying ~17.7% upside from the article’s reference price.
- A street‑high target around $1,218.
MarketBeat’s latest institutional‑ownership note also classifies Costco as a “Moderate Buy”, with an average target around $1,025 based on its analyst sample (18 Buys, 13 Holds). ^[25]

Taken together, Wall Street is constructively bullish but not unanimously euphoric:

Upside in most models ranges from high single digits to high teens.
Ratings skew heavily to Buy, but there is a meaningful minority of Hold ratings and a token number of Sell calls, reflecting valuation worries.

Earnings outlook: double‑digit growth expected

According to Barchart, consensus expectations for Costco’s fiscal 2026 (year ending August 2026) call for: ^[26]

EPS of about $19.97, up roughly 11% year over year.

That implies the market is currently paying around 45–46x forward earnings, still a rich multiple even for a high‑quality retailer.

Institutional money flows: steady accumulation with some trimming

Late‑November saw a flurry of updated 13F filings and institutional‑ownership stories, many of which hit the wire between November 28–30:

BLI Banque de Luxembourg Investments disclosed a new position of 10,200 Costco shares in Q2, valued at about $10.0 million, according to MarketBeat’s November 30 alert. ^[27]
West Family Investments Inc. increased its COST stake by 260.9% in Q2, adding 1,667 shares to hold 2,306 shares worth roughly $2.28 million; Costco now makes up about 0.6% of its portfolio. ^[28]
Large institutions remain heavily involved:
- Vanguard owns about 43.36 million COST shares, worth more than $42.9 billion. ^[29]
- Geode Capital Management holds over 10.27 million shares. ^[30]
- Norges Bank (Norway’s sovereign wealth fund) recently established a new position worth roughly $5.7 billion. ^[31]

MarketBeat tallies these filings and estimates that about 68–69% of Costco’s float is held by hedge funds and other institutional investors, underscoring Costco’s status as a core “institutional quality” name. ^[32]

At the margin, some funds are trimming while others add, but the overall picture from late‑November headlines is continued institutional confidence with selective rebalancing, not a broad exodus.

Dividend, balance sheet and upcoming catalysts

Dividend profile

Costco currently pays a quarterly dividend of $1.30 per share, or about $5.20 annualized, giving a forward yield in the mid‑0.5% range at current prices. ^[33]
The payout ratio is in the high‑20% range, leaving room for continued increases and potential special dividends, which Costco has historically paid from time to time. ^[34]

For income‑focused investors, the yield is modest, but Costco’s long record of dividend growth is part of its appeal as a defensive compounder.

Balance sheet and leverage

Finviz data show: ^[35]

Debt‑to‑equity ~0.34 and long‑term debt‑to‑equity almost the same.
Current ratio ~1.03, quick ratio ~0.55.

This relatively conservative leverage profile and strong cash generation from membership fees give Costco flexibility to invest, weather downturns and continue returning capital to shareholders.

Near‑term catalysts as markets reopen

Going into Monday, December 1, investors will be watching:

Macro backdrop: MarketBeat’s week‑in‑review highlights that inflation and retail‑sales data released over the holiday week boosted hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, helping support equities broadly. ^[36] If rates do begin to fall, high‑multiple quality names like Costco could see valuation support.
Upcoming earnings and sales data: Finviz lists Costco’s next earnings call around mid‑December (Dec. 11, after market close). ^[37]
- Alternative‑data firm QuiverQuant even published a quirky note on November 29 about “markets betting on whether Costco will mention ‘revenue’” in that call, underlining how closely investors scrutinize its commentary on sales trends. ^[38]
Holiday‑quarter sentiment: With Black Friday and Cyber Monday behind us, analysts will parse early holiday traffic and spending patterns. Costco tends to benefit when shoppers are value‑conscious, but any signs of consumer fatigue or trade‑down could influence expectations for fiscal 2026.

How late‑November analysis frames Costco before the December 1 open

Putting the news and forecasts from November 28–30 together, a fairly consistent narrative emerges:

Bullish pillars

Very strong fundamentals:
- High‑single‑digit revenue growth and double‑digit EPS growth. ^[39]
- Double‑digit growth in membership fee income with renewal rates near 90%. ^[40]
Wide moat: Costco’s membership model, scale and private‑label strength (Kirkland) give it a durable competitive edge, especially in economic slowdowns when customers seek value. ^[41]
Institutional validation: Major asset managers and sovereign wealth funds continue to hold or add large positions, suggesting long‑term confidence rather than short‑term trading. ^[42]
Consensus upside: Most analyst target ranges imply mid‑single‑digit to high‑teens upside from current levels, even after a tough year. ^[43]

Bearish and cautious points

Rich valuation: Nearly every late‑November piece that likes the business still warns that Costco’s multiple is stretched vs. its own history and sector peers. The Target‑vs.-Costco comparison explicitly notes that all three major valuation ratios remain above Costco’s five‑year averages. ^[44]
Relative underperformance: The “worst performance relative to the S&P 500 in 23 years” framing captures the discomfort: owning Costco in 2025 has felt disappointing compared to broader indices, and some investors may be reluctant to chase the stock until it proves it can re‑accelerate. ^[45]
Low yield: For income investors, a sub‑1% yield may not be enough on its own to justify buying at 50x earnings, even with the possibility of special dividends. ^[46]

Net takeaway before Monday’s open

Heading into the December 1, 2025 session, Costco sits at an interesting crossroads:

The business looks as strong as ever, with robust sales, membership trends and an extremely sticky customer base.
The stock, however, is priced for continued excellence, and after a rare year of underperformance, investors are debating whether the current pullback offers a reasonable entry point or just a slightly less‑expensive premium.

For long‑term, quality‑focused investors, the late‑November commentary leans toward “buy on weakness” or at least “accumulate on dips”. For value‑oriented or shorter‑term traders, the consensus seems to be that there is no rush to chase COST ahead of December’s earnings and macro catalysts.

As always, this article is informational only and not personal investment advice. Whether Costco fits your portfolio before Monday’s open depends on your time horizon, risk tolerance, and how comfortable you are paying a premium valuation for a world‑class retail franchise.

Costco (COST) Long Term Outlook