As Wall Street heads into the first trading day of December, Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NASDAQ: CRDO) is one of the most closely watched AI infrastructure stocks going into Monday, December 1, 2025.
After a powerful late‑November rally, CRDO is trading around $177–178 per share, up more than 8% on Friday alone, with an intraday range near $167.48–$177.98 and a 52‑week band of roughly $29 to $193.50. TS2 Tech+1
Over longer horizons, the move is even more dramatic. One StatMuse screen shows Credo delivering about 1,174% total return over the last three years, the best performance among U.S. semiconductor and semiconductor‑equipment stocks over that period. [1] That surge has turned Credo from a niche connectivity play into a flagship “AI plumbing” name — and raised the stakes for Monday’s Q2 earnings report.
1. Where CRDO Stands Ahead of the December 1, 2025 Open
Short‑term momentum
- Friday, Nov. 28, 2025: CRDO closed at $177.60, up 8.29% on heavy volume of about 5.6 million shares, extending a multi‑session winning streak into the weekend. [2]
- After‑hours trading: StockAnalysis data shows after‑hours quotes nudging up to around $178.00, suggesting buyers are still active into the earnings countdown. [3]
- A Barchart pre‑earnings preview notes that CRDO has gained roughly 33.7% over the last three months and more than 138% year‑to‑date heading into this report. [4]
Even after this run, technical indicators are not universally screaming “overbought.” Barchart highlights that the 14‑day RSI remains below the usual overbought threshold, leaving room for further upside if earnings and guidance clear the high bar. [5]
Longer‑term performance
TechStock² and other analytics platforms paint a picture of stunning multi‑period gains:
- From April 4 to November 30, 2025, CRDO is up about 423%, placing it among the top‑performing large‑cap U.S. stocks in 2025. TS2 Tech
- Over roughly two years, one trend analysis estimates a ~740% climb, with prices ranging from about $16.92 at the low to $187.62 at the high, despite a modest ~9% pullback between mid‑September and late November. TS2 Tech+1
A StatMuse screen confirms how extreme that is: no other U.S. semiconductor stock has outperformed Credo over the last three years, even in a sector dominated by names like NVIDIA and Broadcom. [6]
That backdrop sets up a classic “priced for perfection” moment: one of the market’s hottest AI infrastructure winners is about to face a big reality check.
2. Q2 FY2026 Earnings: What Wall Street Expects
Credo is scheduled to report second‑quarter fiscal 2026 (Q2 FY2026) results on Monday, December 1, 2025, after the U.S. market close, according to Zacks, Nasdaq and multiple earnings calendars. TS2 Tech+2nasdaq.com+2
Company guidance for Q2
In its Q1 FY2026 update, management guided for Q2 (quarter ended November 1, 2025) to deliver: TS2 Tech+1
- Revenue:$230–240 million, implying ~5% sequential growth
- Non‑GAAP gross margin:64–66%
- Non‑GAAP operating expenses:$56–58 million
Street consensus
Estimates across Zacks, Nasdaq, Benzinga and other aggregators cluster in a tight band:
- EPS:
- Revenue:
Some services (including GuruFocus, as summarized by TechStock²) show slightly lower non‑GAAP EPS assumptions around $0.30 for Q2 and full‑year FY2026 EPS estimates just above $1.30, but the common theme is triple‑digit revenue growth and very high margins. TS2 Tech+1
Zacks model: strong fundamentals, cautious signal
In a detailed preview cross‑posted via Nasdaq, Zacks notes that Credo has beaten consensus EPS estimates in four straight quarters with an average surprise of ~33.5%, thanks to explosive growth in its Active Electrical Cable (AEC) and optical businesses. [11]
However:
- Zacks gives CRDO a Rank #3 (Hold) and calculates an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, meaning its quantitative model does not strongly signal an upside surprise this time. [12]
- The preview stresses both booming AI‑driven demand and risks from customer concentration, tougher competition and a rich valuation.
In other words, the Street broadly expects another stellar quarter — but the bar is high, and even an “in‑line” print may not automatically justify the share price.
3. How Q1 Set Up the Q2 Story
The enthusiasm going into Monday’s report is rooted in an exceptional Q1 FY2026.
According to company filings and summarized analysis: TS2 Tech+1
- Q1 revenue:$223.1 million, up 274% year‑over‑year and about 31% sequentially
- Product revenue: approximately $217.1 million, up ~279% year‑over‑year, led by HiWire AECs and optical products
- Margins: GAAP gross margin of 67.4%; non‑GAAP gross margin of 67.6%
- Profitability: GAAP diluted EPS of $0.34; non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $0.52, well ahead of consensus
Data providers now peg trailing 12‑month revenue near $600 million, with revenue growth around 176% year‑over‑year, far outpacing the near‑flat growth typical across broader communications‑equipment peers. TS2 Tech
That kind of growth, combined with mid‑60s gross margins, is exactly why investors have bid CRDO up so aggressively ahead of Q2.
4. What Credo Actually Does in the AI Stack
Despite being labeled an “AI stock,” Credo doesn’t sell GPUs or full server racks. It sells the connectivity plumbing that keeps those systems fed with data.
TechStock² and company materials outline a broad portfolio covering: TS2 Tech+2Business Wire+2
- HiWire Active Electrical Cables (AECs):
Lower‑power, lower‑cost alternatives to short‑reach optical cables used inside data centers to connect AI accelerators and switches. - Optical DSPs and line‑card PHYs:
Digital signal processors and physical‑layer chips used in high‑speed optical modules (100G, 200G, 400G, 800G and emerging 1.6T ports). - SerDes chiplets and IP:
High‑speed serializer/deserializer building blocks, including 224G PAM4 SerDes designed for next‑generation AI and cloud silicon. - Retimers, including PCIe retimers:
Chips that extend reach and preserve signal integrity inside dense AI servers and storage systems.
2025 has been packed with strategic moves that deepen this AI‑connectivity story:
- Hyperlume acquisition (Sept. 29, 2025): Adds microLED‑based optical interconnect technology aimed at overcoming power and bandwidth bottlenecks in AI data centers. TS2 Tech
- Weaver memory fanout gearbox (Nov. 3, 2025): Business Wire and StockTitan describe “Weaver” as an industry‑first memory fanout gearbox designed to significantly increase memory bandwidth and density for AI accelerators and xPUs, delivering multi‑terabyte‑per‑second throughput. [13]
- AEC patent license with The Siemon Company (Nov. 24, 2025): Credo signed a licensing agreement related to its active electrical cable patents, signaling an intent to monetize its IP more aggressively. Terms were not disclosed. [14]
- Board and ecosystem moves:
- CEO Bill Brennan joined the board of AI‑security specialist Axiado, highlighting Credo’s deeper involvement in secure infrastructure. [15]
- Credo joined the Arm Total Design ecosystem and has showcased new optical and SerDes products at events such as ECOC 2025 and the OCP Global Summit, positioning itself directly in front of hyperscalers. TS2 Tech
Zacks and Barchart both emphasize that AECs remain the star of the show, with optical DSPs and PCIe retimers increasingly important as secondary growth engines. [16]
5. Weekend Narrative: Institutional Buying vs. Insider Selling
Big money keeps buying
A cluster of weekend reports (including TechStock²’s November 29 and 30 updates) highlight heavy institutional interest in CRDO: MarketBeat+3TS2 Tech+3TS2 Tech+3
- A MarketBeat filing recap showed F M Investments LLC boosting its CRDO position by 22.4% in Q2 to 43,167 shares.
- Other large holders such as JPMorgan, Nuveen, Swedbank and Legal & General have been adding or initiating positions.
- Credo appears as a notable position in the MDT Small Cap Core Fund, where it accounts for roughly 1.6% of the portfolio as of November 30, 2025.
- Overall, MarketBeat data puts institutional ownership above ~80%, with insiders still holding just under 12% of shares. [17]
Quiver Quant and other data feeds cited by TechStock² also show intense search and trading activity, with CRDO ranking among the most‑searched tickers and recording multi‑million‑share volume days alongside double‑digit percentage moves. TS2 Tech
But insiders are selling — a lot
The other side of the weekend narrative is less comfortable for bulls:
- TechStock², pulling from regulatory filings and market data, reports that CEO Bill Brennan recently sold roughly $11.6 million worth of stock, while total insider selling over the last three months amounts to around 973,000 shares valued at about $149 million. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2
- Multiple senior executives — including the CTO, COO and CFO — have either sold shares or filed to sell under trading plans. TS2 Tech
- In October, Credo also entered into an equity distribution agreement with Goldman Sachs allowing it to sell up to $750 million of ordinary shares into the market over time, creating potential for future dilution. TS2 Tech
Insider selling does not automatically mean a bearish fundamental view — executives may diversify after big gains — but combined with a huge share‑price run, it is one of the main caution flags cited by more skeptical analysts.
6. Valuation: From AI Darling to High‑Bar Test Case
Most recent analyses agree on one point: CRDO is expensive by almost any traditional metric.
Multiples vs. peers
- MarketBeat’s Friday wrap shows a trailing P/E around 265× and a PEG ratio near 2.6, along with a beta above 3, underscoring both premium valuation and high volatility. [18]
- Zacks and Nasdaq estimate that Credo is trading at about 96× forward earnings, versus roughly 39× for the broader semiconductor group. [19]
- TS2’s November 29 piece, synthesizing multiple data providers, points to free‑cash‑flow yields around 0.3% and price‑to‑sales multiples in the mid‑40s — levels usually associated with hyper‑growth software, not hardware. TS2 Tech+1
Price targets vs. price
Analyst‑target data are somewhat mixed across platforms but paint a similar picture:
- GuruFocus consensus, cited by TechStock², puts the average 12‑month price target around $148, with a wide range from about $34 to $165, implying downside from current prices above $170 if targets prove accurate. TS2 Tech+1
- TipRanks data highlighted in the same article shows the most recent analyst rating as “Buy” with a target near $182, a touch above where CRDO currently trades. TS2 Tech
- A Benzinga survey of “most accurate” analysts notes several bullish calls in 2025:
- Susquehanna lifting its target from $165 to $175 (Positive rating)
- Barclays maintaining $165 (Overweight)
- Roth Capital raising from $95 to $160
- Stifel moving from $130 to $155
— all of which CRDO has already approached or surpassed during its recent surge. [20]
Put simply, expectations are extremely high. The market is paying a premium for a company that:
- Is growing revenue at triple‑digit rates
- Delivers mid‑60s gross margins
- Sits directly in the flow of hyperscale AI spending
That combination is powerful — but it also means any disappointment or softening in guidance could trigger an outsized reaction.
7. What the Latest Research Says (Nov 28–30, 2025)
Zacks: explosive growth, but “handle with care”
Zacks’ November 28 preview (also featured on Nasdaq and Yahoo) highlights several positives: [21]
- Surging demand for Credo’s AEC and optical products
- Deeper engagement with hyperscalers, including expectations that three to four customers will each account for more than 10% of revenue even as new ramps begin in fiscal 2026
- Strong momentum in Ethernet and PCIe retimers, with design wins expected to produce revenue from 2026 onward
But it also underscores key risks:
- Customer concentration: top three customers each contributed more than 10% of revenue last quarter.
- Competition: Credo faces heavyweights like Broadcom and Marvell, along with newer AI‑focused rivals.
- Valuation: on forward P/E, CRDO trades far above industry averages and its own historical mean.
The takeaway: fantastic growth, but not a low‑risk setup.
Barchart: “Analysts like Credo going into earnings”
A November 26 Barchart column notes that: [22]
- CRDO has risen ~33.7% in three months and over 138% this year, powered by demand for high‑speed connectivity for AI and cloud.
- Wall Street’s consensus rating remains in the “Strong Buy” zone, even after the run.
- Options markets are pricing in an ~18.1% move in either direction for contracts expiring December 5, signaling expectations of a big post‑earnings swing.
- The last earnings release saw CRDO jump about 7.4% in response.
The author argues that revenue growth from AECs, optical DSPs and PCIe retimers, plus expanding hyperscaler relationships, gives Credo multiple catalysts — and suggests the recent pullback prior to the late‑November rebound offered a “solid entry point.” (That is their assessment, not a guarantee.)
TechStock² (TS2): “AI plumbing” star with an extreme valuation test
TechStock² has devoted multiple pieces (dated November 29 and 30) to CRDO’s weekend setup: TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2
- Labels Credo “one of the hottest AI infrastructure plays on Wall Street” heading into December, with roughly 285% one‑year gains and a recent close around $178.
- Emphasizes the tug‑of‑war between institutional accumulation and heavy insider selling, plus the $750 million at‑the‑market equity program.
- Frames valuation as “extreme” — citing P/E near 265× trailing, ~97× forward, a tiny FCF yield and several fair‑value models below the current price.
- Summarizes the analyst debate as “hyper‑growth vs. how much is already priced in.”
Other notable coverage
- StocksToTrade and other trading‑focused outlets spotlight Credo’s 8%+ daily surges, the Siemon patent deal, the Weaver gearbox launch and board changes (including ex‑NVIDIA engineering leadership joining Credo’s board), while noting robust profitability metrics (EBIT margin above 20%, very low leverage, strong current ratio) alongside a very rich P/E multiple. [23]
- InsiderMonkey includes Credo in a list of “stocks racking up big gains,” highlighting its 4‑day winning streak into Friday and the 8.29% move as investors position ahead of earnings. [24]
- A Yahoo Finance week‑ahead preview lists Credo alongside MongoDB and New Fortress Energy as key earnings to watch in the first week of December, underscoring how prominent CRDO has become in macro market discussions. [25]
8. Key Issues for Traders and Investors Before the December 1 Open
Going into Monday’s session — and the Q2 print after the close — market participants are likely focused on a handful of big questions:
- Can Credo beat expectations and keep guidance aggressive?
- With consensus already calling for ~226% revenue growth and ~600% EPS growth, even a small miss or soft guide for Q3/FY2026 could disappoint. [26]
- How strong is hyperscaler demand, and how concentrated is it?
- Investors will look for updates on the number of hyperscalers ramping AEC and optical products, the shape of 2026 PCIe‑retimer revenue, and whether any large customers are pausing or accelerating deployments. [27]
- Are margins sustainable at mid‑60s?
- With gross margins in the mid‑to‑high 60s and opex scaling more slowly than revenue, any signals of pricing pressure, higher input costs or heavy incremental R&D spending could shift the long‑term margin narrative. TS2 Tech+1
- How is Credo integrating Hyperlume, Weaver and other new products?
- The Street will be listening for early customer interest in Weaver, timelines for Hyperlume‑enhanced optical products, and updates on the 1.6T optical DSP and 224G SerDes roadmap. TS2 Tech+2Stock Titan+2
- What does management say about capital allocation and dilution?
- Commentary around the Goldman Sachs equity distribution program and the pace (or lack) of at‑the‑market issuance could be important for sentiment, especially given the insider selling backdrop. TS2 Tech+1
- How will the options market’s implied ±18% move resolve?
- With options pricing suggesting a potential high‑teens percentage swing in either direction, Q2 could mark a significant inflection for short‑term traders. [28]
9. Bottom Line: A High‑Conviction AI Story With a High Bar
Heading into the December 1, 2025 market open, Credo Technology Group sits at the crossroads of several powerful forces:
- Fundamentals: Triple‑digit revenue growth, expanding product lines, and a central role in AI data‑center connectivity. TS2 Tech+2nasdaq.com+2
- Sentiment: Strong institutional buying, a Street consensus tilted toward “Buy” or “Strong Buy,” and intense retail interest. TS2 Tech+2Barchart.com+2
- Valuation and risk: Sky‑high multiples, heavy insider selling and options markets braced for an 18% post‑earnings swing. [29]
For bulls, Credo is one of the purest ways to play the build‑out of AI infrastructure — a company selling the cables, DSPs and chiplets that every GPU cluster needs. For skeptics, it’s a stock whose fundamental excellence may already be more than reflected in the price, leaving little margin for error.
Whichever side you’re on, Monday’s Q2 FY2026 report is likely to be a major catalyst. Traders will be watching not just whether Credo beats estimates, but whether management’s guidance and commentary can keep up with a share price that has already gone parabolic.
Important note: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. It does not recommend buying, selling or holding any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.
References
1. www.statmuse.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.barchart.com, 5. www.barchart.com, 6. www.statmuse.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.benzinga.com, 9. www.nasdaq.com, 10. www.benzinga.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.nasdaq.com, 13. www.stocktitan.net, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.nasdaq.com, 20. www.benzinga.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.barchart.com, 23. stockstotrade.com, 24. www.insidermonkey.com, 25. finance.yahoo.com, 26. www.nasdaq.com, 27. www.nasdaq.com, 28. www.barchart.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com
