Updated today: Saturday, December 13, 2025
Bitcoin is heading into the weekend holding a familiar line: the $90,000 area. After a year defined by sharp rallies, tariff-driven risk shocks, and sudden liquidations, the market is settling into a late‑December rhythm where macro headlines and regulation matter as much as on-chain fundamentals. [1]
But “quiet” doesn’t mean “boring.” In the last few days alone, the crypto story has expanded beyond price action into U.S. banking charter approvals for major crypto firms, new moves around tokenization and market infrastructure, and a filing that aims to bring Ethereum staking yield into an ETF wrapper—all while investors brace for a data-heavy week ahead that could swing rates, the dollar, and risk appetite.
Market snapshot (as of Dec. 13, 2025): Bitcoin and Ethereum steady, but not “risk-free”
- Bitcoin (BTC): ~$90,589
- Ethereum (ETH): ~$3,133
- XRP: ~$2.13
Context matters: Reuters notes Bitcoin hit an all‑time peak above $126,000 in early October, but struggled to regain momentum after the post‑October risk shock—highlighting how tightly crypto has traded with broader risk sentiment this year. [2]
That “Bitcoin as a macro asset” framing is one of the most important takeaways for anyone tracking the week ahead.
What happened in crypto this week: 6 headlines that actually moved the narrative
1) The Fed cut rates — and the message was more complicated than the headline
The U.S. Federal Reserve delivered another 25 bp cut, taking the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, but the internal split and the forward path are what markets are really digesting. CoinShares highlighted that the decision was widely expected, yet the committee dynamics and projections suggested a slower future easing trajectory than some investors wanted. [3]
In parallel, Reuters reported pushback from senior Fed voices warning inflation is still too high—Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he dissented because policy should stay modestly restrictive, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she would prefer a tighter stance given inflation concerns. [4]
Why crypto cared: Reuters has documented that Bitcoin’s correlation with equities strengthened in 2025, and that rate expectations increasingly act as a key driver of crypto sentiment—especially when markets are already nervous about valuation pockets elsewhere (notably tech/AI). [5]
2) On-chain and derivatives signals: “anchored, but under strain”
Glassnode’s Week On-Chain described Bitcoin as stuck in a fragile range, with rising unrealized losses, elevated realized losses, and profit-taking from long-term holders. It also pointed to thin spot liquidity, soft futures positioning, and options traders paying up for short-dated volatility and downside protection. [6]
Glassnode framed the current zone with widely watched reference levels:
- True Market Mean around ~$81.3K
- 0.75 cost-basis quantile around ~$95K
- Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis around ~$102.7K [7]
Translation: Bitcoin may be stable, but it’s stable in a market that’s sensitive—where a macro surprise can matter more than a single bullish crypto headline.
3) Crypto ETP/ETF flows improved—yet spot ETF demand still looks selective
CoinShares reported that digital asset ETPs saw $716M in weekly inflows (its Dec. 8 report), lifting total AuM to about $180B, with broad-based participation led by the U.S. [8]
At the same time, Glassnode characterized recent U.S. Bitcoin ETF flows as “quiet,” with net flows below zero on a short-term average, reinforcing the idea that institutions are engaged—but cautious and price-sensitive. [9]
And the broader backdrop remains choppy: Reuters previously reported a record $523M one-day outflow from BlackRock’s flagship spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) during the November selloff—an example of how fast ETF “beta” can flip when risk appetite turns. [10]
4) U.S. regulators took a major step toward “crypto inside the banking system”
One of the biggest structural headlines of the week came from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which announced conditional approvals for five national trust bank charter applications. The OCC’s release named:
- First National Digital Currency Bank (de novo national trust bank charter)
- Ripple National Trust Bank (de novo national trust bank charter)
- Conversions to national trust banks for BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos [11]
Circle separately confirmed conditional approval to establish First National Digital Currency Bank, N.A., saying the trust bank would oversee the USDC Reserve for Circle’s U.S. issuer once fully approved—and explicitly tying the milestone to compliance with the GENIUS Act, which Circle said became U.S. law in July 2025. [12]
Why it matters: Trust banks don’t automatically turn crypto firms into full-service retail banks, but the approvals signal something bigger: regulators are building pathways for crypto-native companies to operate under federal oversight—especially in stablecoins and custody—rather than leaving key infrastructure offshore.
5) Ethereum’s “yield narrative” moved closer to ETFs
A filing on the SEC’s EDGAR system shows a “subject to completion” prospectus dated Dec. 5, 2025 for the iShares® Staked Ethereum Trust ETF. The prospectus describes a trust designed to reflect the price of ether plus rewards from staking a portion of the trust’s ether, while emphasizing that staking would be pursued only to the extent it does not create undue legal or regulatory risk (including tax treatment concerns). [13]
The document also outlines key service providers and custody arrangements, including Coinbase Custody as Ether custodian and BNY Mellon as cash custodian/administrator, with Anchorage Digital Bank described as an available alternative custodian. [14]
Market implication (not a guarantee): If staking yield becomes a mainstream ETF feature, it could change how institutions think about ETH exposure—less like a pure “beta” trade and more like an asset with an embedded yield component. But approval, structure, and regulatory comfort remain the gating factors.
6) Tokenization went mainstream—again—through two very different channels
(a) DTCC/DTC + SEC no-action relief: Reuters reported that a DTCC subsidiary, the Depository Trust Company (DTC), received an SEC “no action” letter to offer a service to tokenize stocks, ETFs, and bonds, with the service expected to roll out next year and the relief lasting three years across a number of blockchains. [15]
DTCC also described the significance of the SEC no-action posture as enabling a faster path to launch “once finalized,” under defined limitations. [16]
(b) Pakistan + Binance MoU: Reuters reported Pakistan signed an MoU with Binance to explore tokenization of up to $2 billion of sovereign assets (including bonds, T-bills, and commodity reserves), alongside initial regulatory clearance steps for Binance and HTX to begin the local licensing process. [17]
Why this matters for crypto markets: Tokenization isn’t just a buzzword—it’s increasingly the bridge narrative connecting TradFi plumbing (clearing, settlement, collateral) with public/private blockchain rails. Each “real” institutional step tends to reinforce the long-term investment case for infrastructure tokens and platforms, even when prices are range-bound.
Enforcement reminder: Do Kwon’s 15-year sentence underscored the fraud crackdown legacy
U.S. authorities closed the week with a high-profile reminder of why compliance still matters. The U.S. Department of Justice announced that Do Kwon was sentenced in connection with a $40 billion fraud tied to TerraUSD and Luna. [18]
The Associated Press also reported the sentence length at 15 years, with the judge describing the offense as an epic-scale fraud. [19]
This kind of headline tends to reinforce a market split already visible in 2025: regulated rails and institution-friendly products gaining ground, while the tolerance for opaque or structurally fragile projects continues to shrink.
Bitcoin outlook: why the market is acting “macro-first” into year-end
Reuters’ year-in-review framing is blunt: Bitcoin’s 2025 has featured record highs and crushing selloffs, and it has increasingly reacted to the same forces driving equities—rates, tariffs, and risk sentiment. [20]
Glassnode’s read is equally clear: muted liquidity and cautious positioning can make price more sensitive to catalysts, even when on-chain buyers are absorbing sell pressure. [21]
FXStreet echoed that “consolidation” theme around the Fed decision, noting a midweek dip toward the high-$80Ks before a rebound, and highlighting how traders are watching whether Bitcoin can break through technical resistance and re-accelerate. [22]
The practical takeaway for next week: Bitcoin doesn’t need a “crypto-native” catalyst to move sharply. A surprise in inflation, rates expectations, or risk sentiment can do it—especially in a market where liquidity is thinner than earlier in the year.
Ethereum outlook: staking yield is back in focus—alongside regulatory risk
Ethereum’s price has been firm relative to some risk assets, but the more important story is product-market fit: the SEC filing for a staked ETH ETF concept is a direct attempt to translate Ethereum’s staking economics into a structure familiar to institutions. [23]
Still, the filing itself repeatedly flags legal, regulatory, and tax uncertainties around staking activities—an explicit sign that “ETH yield” remains a regulatory frontier, not a done deal. [24]
For investors, that means next week’s ETH conversation is likely to split into two tracks:
- Macro track: rates, liquidity, risk-on/off.
- Structure track: how quickly regulators and issuers can converge on staking-in-ETF mechanics without creating unintended legal consequences.
Week ahead (Dec. 15–19, 2025): the catalysts crypto traders are watching
U.S. economic data and Fed speakers: why it matters for crypto
Next week’s U.S. calendar includes major reports and Fed appearances that can move yields and the dollar—often translating quickly into crypto risk appetite.
MarketWatch’s U.S. economic calendar highlights scheduled releases and Fed speakers starting Monday, Dec. 15, including the Empire State manufacturing survey and appearances by Fed officials. [25]
The New York Fed’s calendar lists additional releases in midweek, including Advance Retail Sales and other macro updates. [26]
And the Federal Reserve’s own calendar shows multiple December speaking events by governors. [27]
The “macro-to-crypto” playbook for next week
- Hotter inflation / stronger data: tends to push yields up, reduce expectations for future cuts, and pressure speculative risk assets—crypto included (especially if equities wobble).
- Cooling inflation / weaker data: can revive the “easier policy” narrative and support a relief rally—particularly if ETF/ETP flows improve alongside sentiment.
Fed commentary is also likely to be market-moving given the visible internal debate on how restrictive policy should be. [28]
What to watch beyond price: 5 themes likely to dominate crypto headlines next week
- Regulated crypto banking: how quickly the OCC’s conditional approvals translate into operational timelines—and whether competitors pursue similar federal routes. [29]
- Stablecoin compliance after GENIUS Act: Circle explicitly framed its charter milestone as tied to GENIUS Act requirements—expect more issuer messaging (and scrutiny) around reserves, governance, and oversight. [30]
- Tokenization infrastructure: DTCC’s SEC no-action relief is a “plumbing” story with long-term implications for settlement and 24/7 markets—exactly the kind of narrative that can attract TradFi attention even when token prices are flat. [31]
- CFTC’s tokenized collateral push: the agency announced a pilot program and guidance related to tokenized collateral, explicitly naming assets like BTC, ETH, and USDC in the context of derivatives-market collateral. [32]
- Prediction markets as a crypto-adjacent growth lane: Reuters reported the launch of a national coalition (including Crypto.com, Kalshi, Coinbase, Robinhood, and others) aiming to set integrity standards and push for a clearer federal framework—bringing more attention to the intersection of crypto platforms and regulated event/outcome markets. [33]
Bottom line (Dec. 13, 2025): the market is range-bound, but the industry is not
Bitcoin may be consolidating near $90K today, yet the week’s biggest signals weren’t just about candles:
- Regulators are pulling more crypto activity into U.S. supervised structures (OCC trust charters; CFTC pilot and guidance). [34]
- Institutions are still participating, but selectively, with flows improving at the ETP level while ETF demand and liquidity look thinner than earlier in the year. [35]
- Tokenization is moving from concept to implementation, spanning both U.S. market infrastructure and emerging-market experimentation. [36]
For the week ahead, the market setup is straightforward: macro data + Fed messaging can move crypto quickly in a thin-liquidity environment—and the most durable crypto narratives right now are increasingly the ones tied to regulated rails, real-world assets, and institutional-grade product structures. [37]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. coinshares.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. insights.glassnode.com, 7. insights.glassnode.com, 8. coinshares.com, 9. insights.glassnode.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.occ.gov, 12. www.circle.com, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.dtcc.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.justice.gov, 19. apnews.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. insights.glassnode.com, 22. www.fxstreet.com, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.sec.gov, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.newyorkfed.org, 27. www.federalreserve.gov, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.occ.gov, 30. www.circle.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.cftc.gov, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.occ.gov, 35. coinshares.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. insights.glassnode.com
