CSL Limited heads into the 1 December 2025 ASX session as one of Australia’s most closely watched blue‑chip stocks. After a year of guidance cuts, a delayed vaccine spin‑off and a shareholder revolt, the biotech giant trades around the mid‑A$180s – roughly a third below where it started 2025 – despite solid profit growth, an aggressive cost‑cutting program and a multi‑year share buyback. TechStock²
This article summarises the latest CSL share price, the key news driving sentiment, current forecasts and analyst views as at 1 December 2025.
CSL share price snapshot on 1 December 2025
CSL last changed hands at about A$186.30 per share at the close on Friday 28 November 2025, after trading between roughly A$185.70 and A$188.70 during that session. TechStock²
Key market metrics heading into the 1 December open:
- Last close (28 Nov 2025): ~A$186.30
- 52‑week range: ~A$168.00 – A$290.32 TechStock²
- Market capitalisation: ~A$90 billion Intelligent Investor
- Average daily volume (12 months): about 925,000 shares Intelligent Investor
- 1‑year total shareholder return: roughly ‑33% to ‑36% depending on the data source TechStock²
Australian outlets such as Rask Media and Motley Fool Australia estimate CSL shares are down around 34–35% in calendar 2025, turning what was once considered a “bullet‑proof compounder” into a reset story dominated by questions about vaccines and restructuring. TechStock²
What went wrong in 2025: guidance cuts, spin‑off delay and shareholder anger
The turning point for CSL’s share price came in late October 2025.
At its annual general meeting in Melbourne, CSL cut its FY26 outlook and delayed the planned spin‑off of its Seqirus vaccine division, citing weaker‑than‑expected influenza vaccination rates in the United States – its key vaccine market. Reuters
The new guidance:
- FY26 revenue growth: reduced to 2–3%, down from earlier guidance of 4–5%
- FY26 NPATA growth: trimmed to 4–7%, from 7–10% previously
- Management also guided to high single‑digit growth for FY27–28, below prior consensus which had assumed low double‑digit gains. Meyka
Behind these numbers is a sharp slowdown in flu vaccination in the US:
- CSL now expects US flu vaccination rates to fall around 12% overall, and about 14% in people 65+ compared with last season. Fierce Pharma
- The company flagged a mid‑teens percentage revenue decline for Seqirus this year as a result. Fierce Pharma
The market reaction was brutal. CSL’s share price fell about 16–17% in a single day, dragging Australia’s healthcare sector to one of its sharpest drops since 2020 and pushing CSL to a near seven‑year low around A$176. Business Recorder
At the same AGM, more than 40% of shareholders voted against the executive remuneration report for the second year in a row – a “second strike” under Australia’s two‑strikes rule – reflecting anger over pay packages at a time when the share price had lost more than a third of its value. A follow‑up resolution to spill the board failed, so the directors remain in place, but the protest highlighted a serious trust deficit. The Guardian
The October downgrade also forced the company to shelve its plan to demerge Seqirus by June 2026, which had been unveiled only two months earlier as a centrepiece of CSL’s strategic reset. CSL Limited
Underlying business still growing: FY25 results in focus
The grim share‑price chart hides the fact that CSL’s underlying business continues to grow.
For the financial year ended June 2025, CSL reported: CSL Limited
- Total revenue: about US$15.6 billion, up 5% at constant currency
- Net profit after tax (NPAT): roughly US$3.2–3.3 billion, up around 19% year‑on‑year
- NPATA (underlying profit): about US$3.3–3.5 billion, up 14–15%
- EBIT: ~US$4.6 billion, up around 9%
- Total dividend:US$2.92 per share, an 11% increase, paid as semi‑annual distributions
Cash flow was strong: operating cash flow rose to roughly US$3.6 billion, up almost 30%, and free cash flow increased by nearly 60%, helped by lower capital expenditure. Net debt/EBITDA fell to 1.8x, leaving the balance sheet in solid shape. CSL Limited
Segment results underline why many analysts still treat CSL as a high‑quality franchise: CSL Limited
- CSL Behring (plasma therapies & rare disease):
- Revenue around US$11.2 billion, up 6% at constant currency
- Immunoglobulin sales up 7%; albumin up 7%; haemophilia products up 13%
- Newer products such as HEMGENIX® and ANDEMBRY® contributed to growth
- CSL Seqirus (influenza & pandemic vaccines):
- Revenue around US$2.17 billion, up 2%, but with double‑digit declines in key products FLUAD® and FLUCELVAX® as vaccination rates normalised after the pandemic
- CSL Vifor (iron deficiency and nephrology):
- Revenue about US$2.23 billion, up 8%; nephrology brands like TAVNEOS®, FILSPARI® and VELPHORO® delivered strong growth
Independent commentary from Montgomery Investment Management described CSL’s half‑year performance earlier in 2025 as “mixed” – vaccine weakness offset by robust plasma growth – but noted that management reaffirmed guidance for FY25 and highlighted the recovery in plasma margins as a key support for the long‑term investment case. ROGER MONTGOMERY
The August strategic reset: cost cuts, job losses and a big buyback
Long before the October downgrade, CSL had already embarked on a significant restructuring program.
In its August 2025 full‑year results and strategic update, CSL announced: CSL Limited
- A multi‑year cost‑saving program targeting US$500–550 million in annualised savings by FY28
- A net headcount reduction of up to 15% across the group
- Closure of 22 underperforming US plasma centres, representing about 7% of its plasma collection footprint
- One‑off restructuring charges of US$700–770 million pre‑tax (US$560–620 million post‑tax), mostly to be recognised in FY26
To “optimise capital structure”, CSL also committed to a multi‑year on‑market share buyback, starting with A$750 million in FY26, with scope to increase the program over time. CSL Limited
ASX announcements collated by Intelligent Investor show that between 21 and 27 November 2025, CSL lodged several daily “Update – Notification of buy‑back” notices. Over the course of the program, the company has already repurchased around 2.4 million shares for roughly A$474 million, at an average price near A$198 per share – above the current market price around A$186. TechStock²
That combination – aggressive cost reduction, smaller plasma network, job cuts, and buybacks – is central to both the bull and bear cases. Bulls see a leaner CSL with higher margins and more efficient capital allocation; bears worry about execution risk and whether demand growth, especially in vaccines, will keep up.
Seqirus spin‑off on ice: vaccine headwinds and political cross‑winds
In August, CSL unveiled plans to demerge Seqirus into a separate ASX‑listed company before the end of FY26, creating a standalone global influenza vaccine leader to sit alongside the remaining plasma‑ and nephrology‑focused CSL group. CSL Limited
By late October, those plans were shelved. Management blamed “heightened volatility” in the US vaccines market and a larger‑than‑expected fall in flu jab rates, which are now forecast to be 12–14% lower than last season. Fierce Pharma
Several outlets report that Seqirus revenue is now expected to decline in the mid‑teens this year, rather than stabilise as originally assumed when the demerger was announced. Market Index
The aborted spin‑off has added to investor frustration for two reasons:
- Credibility hit: The demerger was heavily promoted in August as a major strategic initiative, only to be delayed two months later after updated data on vaccine uptake. CSL Limited
- Valuation question: Many analysts had pencilled in a higher combined value for CSL plus a separately listed Seqirus. With the spin‑off delayed indefinitely, that “sum of the parts” upside is less certain. Market Index
On top of that, Australian media have stressed that CSL’s vaccine problems are not happening in a vacuum: scepticism about vaccines more broadly in the US is weighing on rivals such as GSK and Sanofi as well. Reuters
Pipeline and partnerships: the VarmX deal and beyond
Despite the turbulence, CSL continues to invest heavily in its pipeline.
In September 2025, the company announced a strategic collaboration with Dutch biotech VarmX to develop VMX‑C001, a first‑in‑class coagulation treatment designed to rapidly reverse the effects of popular factor Xa blood thinners in patients experiencing severe bleeding or requiring emergency surgery. Global Newsroom | CSL
Key terms of the deal, according to CSL, VarmX and EQT Life Sciences:
- Upfront payment of US$117 million for an exclusive option to acquire VarmX once Phase 3 trial data are available
- Potential milestone payments of up to US$388 million before launch, plus further commercial milestones thereafter Global Newsroom | CSL
- CSL will fully fund the global Phase 3 EquilibriX‑S trial, as well as late‑stage development, manufacturing and pre‑launch commercial activities Global Newsroom | CSL
- Commercial launch of VMX‑C001 is tentatively targeted for 2029, assuming successful trials and regulatory approvals Global Newsroom | CSL
Australian coverage notes that this deal could ultimately represent up to US$760 million of investment, and potentially more than US$2 billion in total transaction value if CSL exercises its option and all milestones are met. AFR
For CSL, VMX‑C001 slots neatly into its haematology franchise alongside HEMGENIX and other bleeding‑disorder therapies, while also signalling that, despite job cuts and cost controls, the company is still prepared to write big cheques for late‑stage assets with global potential.
Analyst ratings and price targets: valuation vs sentiment
Sell‑side consensus remains broadly positive, even after the October downgrade.
Data compiled by Investing.com show: Investing
- Consensus rating: Buy
- Coverage: 16 analysts – 13 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell
- Average 12‑month price target: around A$244 per share
- Target range: approximately A$195 – A$295
- Implied upside of roughly 32% from the current share price in the mid‑A$180s
Morningstar’s fair‑value estimate, cited via nabtrade, sits higher again at around A$295, while Simply Wall St’s intrinsic value models cluster around A$247 and describe CSL as “significantly undervalued” with a strong balance sheet. TechStock²
Some brokers remain particularly bullish. A report highlighted by Motley Fool Australia earlier in the year cited an investment bank target near A$294 and suggested CSL could deliver 40–50% total returns over the next 12 months if earnings normalise and the demerger eventually proceeds. The Motley Fool Australia
On the other hand, not all target revisions are upwards:
- A recent note summarised on Nasdaq/Fintel shows the average one‑year price target for CSL’s US ADR (CSLLY) was cut from US$97.03 to US$81.04 in mid‑November, now sitting about 15% below the most recent ADR closing price around US$95. Nasdaq
- TipRanks’ automated newsdesk reported the latest analyst rating on ASX:CSL as “Buy” with a A$225 price target, while its technical sentiment indicator currently screens the stock as a “Sell”, and estimates market cap around A$86 billion. TipRanks
Local research houses remain generally supportive. Intelligent Investor, for example, lists CSL as a Buy within a defined valuation band (full details behind a paywall) and shows forecast P/E ratios in the low‑ to mid‑20s and a forward dividend yield creeping towards 2% for FY25–26. Intelligent Investor
Separately, an expert panel in The Bull’s 1 December 2025 “18 Share Tips” column tagged CSL as a Buy, arguing the stock looks “massively oversold” given its dominant market position, multi‑year cost savings of more than A$500 million and planned US$1.5 billion expansion of its plasma‑therapy network. The Bull
Short‑term technical picture: cautious signals for December
While most fundamental analysts still lean bullish over 12 months, technical models are far more cautious in the near term.
Technical research site StockInvest.us currently classifies both ASX:CSL and its US ADR CSLLY as “Sell candidates”, citing a mix of negative trend signals: StockInvest
For ASX:CSL:
- The stock has risen about 2.5% over the past two weeks, but remains in the middle of what the site describes as a “very wide and falling” short‑term trend
- Its model projects a potential 13.9% decline over the next three months, with a 90% probability band between roughly A$137 and A$178
- For Monday 1 December, it expects a “fair opening price” around A$186.88 and an intraday trading range between about A$184.15 and A$188.45, implying a possible ±2.3% swing during the session
For CSLLY in the US:
- The ADR is expected to open around US$60.94, with a forecast intraday band of roughly US$60.18 – US$62.04
- The site also flags multiple negative technical signals and anticipates a weak bias over the coming weeks
These models are purely statistical, based on historical price and volume data rather than fundamentals. Still, they underline that volatility remains elevated and that any attempt by the share price to form a durable bottom could involve more sharp swings.
Dividends, buybacks and total shareholder return
For income‑focused investors, CSL is not a high‑yield stock, but dividends and buybacks together add up to meaningful capital returns.
Based on StockInvest and CSL disclosures: CSL Limited
- 2025 interim dividend: about A$2.07 per share
- 2025 final dividend: roughly A$2.5 per share (equivalent to US$1.62 before currency translation)
- Total 2025 dividends: about A$4.6 per share, implying a trailing yield of ~2.5% at current prices in the mid‑A$180s
Layered on top is the A$750 million on‑market buyback for FY26 – roughly 0.8–1.0% of market cap at present valuations – which CSL has indicated could grow in later years. CSL Limited
By late November, the company had already retired around 2.4 million shares, with the market noting that the average buyback price near A$198 sits well above the current share price. That gap is often cited by bulls as evidence management sees long‑term value well above present levels. TechStock²
Bull vs bear case for CSL stock in December 2025
Pulling the threads together, the debate around CSL as of 1 December 2025 can be summarised into two broad narratives.
Bull case
- Plasma moat and margin recovery: CSL Behring operates in an oligopolistic plasma market with high barriers to entry. Management expects plasma margins to keep improving thanks to RIKA and iNomi collection technologies and network optimisation; some analysts estimate margins could approach pre‑COVID levels near the high‑50s percent by FY28. ROGER MONTGOMERY
- Diversified growth drivers: Immunoglobulin demand, nephrology products from Vifor, and new assets like VMX‑C001 provide multiple levers beyond influenza vaccines. CSL Limited
- Cost savings and buybacks: A US$500–550m annual cost saving target, combined with share repurchases, could support double‑digit earnings per share growth even if top‑line growth moderates. CSL Limited
- Valuation reset: With the share price down a third and consensus targets implying around 30%+ upside, supporters argue that much of the Seqirus pain is already reflected in the price. Investing
Bear case
- Vaccines may face structural, not cyclical, weakness: If US vaccination rates remain permanently lower, Seqirus might struggle to regain its former growth profile, undermining the thesis that a demerged vaccine business would command a premium multiple. Fierce Pharma
- Execution risk on restructuring: Cutting up to 15% of staff, closing plasma centres and overhauling the operating model introduces integration and execution risks, especially while simultaneously preparing for potential spin‑offs and large partnerships. CSL Limited
- Investor‑relations and governance overhang: Two consecutive strikes on executive pay, the delayed demerger, and recent changes in senior finance and investor‑relations roles have raised questions about governance and communication. The Guardian
- Short‑term technicals still negative: Trend‑following and quant models largely see CSL as a sell or underperform candidate over the next three months, highlighting the risk that the stock could drift lower before fundamentals reassert themselves. StockInvest
What to watch next
Heading into December 2025 and the first half of 2026, key catalysts for CSL Limited include:
- Further updates on US flu vaccination trends and what they mean for Seqirus revenue and the timing – if any – of a future spin‑off Fierce Pharma
- Detailed FY26 guidance and progress on cost savings, including evidence that plasma margins are improving in line with management’s targets CSL Limited
- Pace and scale of the buyback, and whether the board chooses to enlarge the program beyond the initial A$750 million CSL Limited
- Clinical milestones for VMX‑C001 and other late‑stage assets, which could reshape CSL’s haematology and emergency‑medicine portfolio by the end of the decade Global Newsroom | CSL
- Any change in analyst sentiment or target prices as the dust settles from the October profit warning Investing
For now, CSL Limited sits at the intersection of solid current profitability, attractive long‑term franchises, but very real near‑term execution and sentiment risks.
