CSL Limited (ASX:CSL) Share Price on 4 December 2025: Restructuring Fallout, New Vaccine Plant and 2026 Stock Forecast

Updated: 4 December 2025

CSL Limited (ASX:CSL), the Australian biotech heavyweight, is trading around A$183 per share on 4 December 2025 after one of the most bruising years in its modern history. The company has delivered solid profit growth, announced thousands of job cuts, delayed a major spin‑off, launched a A$750 million buy‑back and opened a A$1 billion cell‑based vaccine and antivenom plant in Melbourne – all while its share price has fallen by roughly a third. ^[1]

Against that backdrop, investors are trying to decide whether CSL is now a long‑term bargain or a restructuring story that still has further to fall. Here is where the stock stands today, what has changed in the last few weeks, and what analysts are forecasting for 2026 and beyond.

CSL share price and performance on 4 December 2025

Market data from several Australian sources shows CSL trading just above A$183 today, broadly flat compared with the last week of November and early December. ^[2]

Key performance markers:

Year to date 2025: CSL shares are down about 35% from the start of the year, based on Intelligent Investor’s performance table. ^[3]
12‑month move: GuruFocus and other datasets put the 12‑month drawdown at roughly 35–37%, making CSL one of the weakest performers among large-cap Australian healthcare names. ^[4]
52‑week range: The stock has traded between about A$168 and A$290.32 over the last year, so today’s price is much closer to the low than the high. ^[5]
Market capitalisation: Depending on the data source and FX assumptions, CSL’s market value now sits around A$88–89 billion (about US$58–59 billion), down by roughly one‑third from a year ago. ^[6]

On fundamentals, CSL still looks like a large, profitable franchise:

Trailing 12‑month revenue is around A$22 billion, with EPS about A$8.16, implying a trailing P/E in the low‑20s at today’s price. ^[7]
That multiple is well below the 30–40x earnings CSL often traded on during its pre‑pandemic growth‑stock heyday. TS2 Tech+1
Dividend yield is now around 2.4–2.5%, unfranked but growing, after total FY25 dividends of roughly US$2.92 per share (about A$4.5–4.6). TS2 Tech+1

Relative to the ASX 200 and the healthcare sector, CSL is clearly in the penalty box: MarketIndex estimates the stock has underperformed the index by more than 30 percentage points over the last 12 months. ^[8]

Fresh news this week: vaccine plant, buy‑back momentum and sector sentiment

A$1bn Melbourne vaccine and antivenom facility goes live

On 2 December 2025, CSL Seqirus officially opened its world‑class cell‑based influenza vaccine and antivenom facility in Melbourne. ^[9]

From CSL and Australian government statements:

The plant is the only large-scale cell‑based flu vaccine facility in the Southern Hemisphere, and one of just three countries globally with end‑to‑end capacity for advanced cell‑based influenza vaccines. ^[10]
It is also the only site in the world able to manufacture all eleven of Australia’s antivenoms plus the Q‑fever vaccine. ^[11]
CSL invested over A$1 billion, with support from the Victorian Government, and the facility is expected to support a supply chain worth around A$300 million a year to the Australian economy. ^[12]
A long‑term partnership with the Commonwealth government locks in sovereign capability for pandemic and seasonal flu vaccines and antivenoms through the 2030s. ^[13]

Strategically, this plant sits inside the Seqirus vaccines business that CSL still intends to spin off once market conditions improve, so it is likely to become a cornerstone asset of the future stand‑alone vaccines company. TS2 Tech+1

A$750m on‑market buy‑back: still running

CSL has been filing near‑daily buy‑back notices with the ASX since August, confirming it is actively repurchasing shares under a A$750 million on‑market program. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2

TechStock²’s analysis of ASX filings suggests that, by late November, CSL had already bought back a little over 2.1 million shares, equivalent to slightly under 1% of its issued capital. TS2 Tech
At current prices and market cap, the program represents around 0.7–0.8% of CSL’s value, modest in absolute terms but meaningful as a signalling tool. TS2 Tech+1

For shareholders, the buy‑back serves three functions:

Capital management: It uses surplus cash and a de‑levered balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA around 1.8x in FY25) to slowly reduce share count. TS2 Tech+1
EPS support: Fewer shares on issue help offset the dilution from prior equity‑funded acquisitions such as Vifor. TS2 Tech
Signal of confidence: Management is prepared to deploy hundreds of millions of dollars into a stock that has fallen by more than a third in a year, suggesting they see the current valuation as attractive. TS2 Tech+1

Sector backdrop: healthcare rebound still “uneven”

A recent ASX 200 market outlook from FOREX.com noted that healthcare’s rebound remains “mixed”, with CSL, Pro Medicus (PME) and Sonic Healthcare (SHL) sending conflicting signals despite the broader index stabilising. ^[14]

Other coverage over the last week has pointed out that:

CSL is down about 34–35% over 12 months, alongside other derated Australian blue chips such as CBA and WiseTech, as investors rotate away from high‑valuation growth names. ^[15]
One Rask Media piece estimates the CSL share price is down roughly 34.5% since the start of 2025, yet argues quality healthcare franchises can still play a defensive role in portfolios over the long term. ^[16]
A 3 December article from The Motley Fool asked “Is the worst finally over for CSL shares?”, pointing to a modest rebound of around 3–4% over the last month as a tentative sign that the selling pressure may be easing. ^[17]
Another Fool article published today, 4 December, includes CSL among four ASX stocks one analyst would buy with A$10,000, highlighting modelled upside of about 52% to consensus price targets. ^[18]

In short: sentiment remains fragile, but there are early signs that some investors see value emerging at current levels.

How 2025 became a reset year for CSL shareholders

August: strong profits, brutal share‑price reaction

CSL’s FY25 results (year to 30 June 2025) and strategy update on 19 August marked the turning point for the share price. The company actually delivered solid headline numbers: TS2 Tech+1

Revenue of roughly US$15.6 billion, up 5% at constant currency.
Underlying NPATA of about US$3.3 billion, up 14%.
NPAT to shareholders around US$3.1 billion, up 17%.
NPATA EPS up around 10% to US$6.65.
Total dividends per share up 11% to about US$2.92.

Free cash flow surged nearly 60%, and net debt/EBITDA fell to about 1.8x, giving CSL plenty of balance‑sheet capacity. TS2 Tech

However, the restructuring plan unveiled alongside these numbers shocked the market:

Up to 3,000 roles (around 15% of the workforce) to be cut across the group, excluding much of the US plasma network.
Closure of 22 underperforming US plasma collection centres in FY26.
Consolidation of R&D from 11 sites down to 6, with a sharper focus on the highest‑potential pipeline projects.
A target of US$500–550 million in annual pre‑tax cost savings within roughly three years, in exchange for US$700–770 million of one‑off restructuring charges.
A plan to spin off CSL Seqirus, the flu and antivenom division, into a separate ASX‑listed company by the end of FY26.
Resumption of a A$750 million on‑market buy‑back. FNArena.com+3TS2 Tech+3TS2 Tech+3

The result: CSL’s stock price fell around 16–17% in a single day, wiping roughly A$20 billion off its market value and dragging it to a new five‑year low, according to Australian media, FNArena and Reuters. The Bull+3TS2 Tech+3FNArena.com+3

Analysis from outlets such as The Bull and ABC News framed the day as a reminder that “good profits aren’t enough” when investors are being asked to underwrite a complex, multi‑year overhaul of a former market darling. ^[19]

October: Seqirus spin‑off delayed and guidance cut

If August was the shock, late October delivered another hit.

On 27–28 October, CSL announced that it would delay the planned spin‑off of Seqirus and downgrade its FY26 outlook, blaming a sharp fall in US influenza vaccination rates and heightened US market volatility. ^[20]

According to Reuters and subsequent analysis: ^[21]

Guidance for FY26 revenue growth was cut from 4–5% to 2–3%.
Expected NPATA growth was trimmed from 7–10% to 4–7% (constant currency).
US flu vaccination rates were projected to be around 12% lower in the current northern hemisphere season, with policy changes under US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – including reduced vaccine funding and leadership upheaval at the CDC – cited as contributing factors.
CSL shares fell as much as 16.6% on the day to around A$176, their lowest level since 2018.

At the same annual meeting, shareholders delivered a second “strike” against executive pay, signaling deep frustration with returns, although a follow‑up vote to spill the board did not pass. ^[22]

By late November, external research was estimating a year‑to‑date decline of roughly 36% in the CSL share price, and commentators were openly debating whether CSL had morphed from a “can’t‑lose” compounder into a potential value trap. TS2 Tech+1

Fundamentals: the business behind the share price

Behind the volatility, CSL remains a diversified global biotech operating across four main divisions – CSL Behring, CSL Plasma, CSL Seqirus and CSL Vifor – and employing more than 30,000 people worldwide. ^[23]

The divisional split in FY25 helps explain both the resilience and the concerns: TS2 Tech+1

CSL Behring (plasma and specialty)
- Revenue up about 6% to US$11.2 billion.
- Immunoglobulin products grew 7% despite US Medicare headwinds.
- Albumin sales rose 7%, driven largely by China.
- Haemophilia therapies, including gene therapy HEMGENIX, climbed 13%.
CSL Seqirus (vaccines)
- Revenue up only ~2% to around US$2.2 billion.
- Egg‑based and cell‑culture flu vaccines saw low double‑digit declines, reflecting a 12–14% drop in US flu vaccination rates, partially offset by pandemic contracts such as H5 avian flu agreements.
CSL Vifor (kidney and iron therapies)
- Revenue grew about 8% to US$2.2 billion.
- Iron therapies were up modestly overall, pressured by EU generics but supported by growth in China.
- Nephrology products like VELPHORO, MIRCERA, TAVNEOS and FILSPARI delivered double‑digit gains.

That mix leaves CSL heavily reliant on plasma and nephrology for growth, with Seqirus the main question mark – precisely the business facing political and behavioural headwinds in the US. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2

At the same time, CSL is still investing heavily for the long term:

The company has committed about US$1.5 billion to expand US plasma‑derived therapy manufacturing over the next five years, adding to more than US$3 billion invested in US operations since 2018 and supporting over 6,500 new jobs in a roughly 19,000‑strong US workforce. TS2 Tech
Regulatory approvals in 2025 included products such as KOSTAIVE, a self‑amplifying mRNA Covid‑19 vaccine in Europe, and ANDEMBRY for hereditary angioedema, while kidney drug FILSPARI continues to gain traction in IgA nephropathy. ^[24]

These factors underpin the argument that operationally the franchise is still robust even as the share price responds to guidance cuts, political risk and restructuring uncertainty. TS2 Tech+1

What analysts and models are forecasting for CSL

Broker ratings and 12‑month price targets

Despite the violent de‑rating, analyst consensus remains broadly positive.

TipRanks, which aggregates broker research, currently shows a “Strong Buy” consensus based on around a dozen analysts: 9 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell. The average 12‑month target is about A$245–246 per share, implying roughly 30–35% upside from prices around A$183. The target range runs from roughly A$196 to the high A$280s. TS2 Tech+1
TradingView’s forecast page lists a mean target of about A$242.20, with a maximum around A$278 and a minimum near A$196, again indicating potential upside of around one‑third versus today. ^[25]
Fintel shows a similar picture, with an average one‑year price target of roughly A$250, ranging from about A$197 to A$309. ^[26]
Webull’s summary of broker reports notes that houses such as Morgan Stanley and UBS maintain Buy ratings on CSL’s overseas listing, with at least one target price around A$300, more than 60% above recent lows in the mid‑A$170s. TS2 Tech+1
A Kalkine report in October reiterated Buy calls from two major brokers after FY25, highlighting a 17% rise in FY25 NPAT to around US$3.0 billion and implying significant upside from then‑current prices near A$199. ^[27]

Interestingly, a prominent Australian value‑investing service still has CSL rated “Hold”, even at these lower levels, citing execution risk around the restructuring and Seqirus spin‑off despite acknowledging the company’s long‑term quality. TS2 Tech+1

Earnings and revenue forecasts

On the fundamentals side, Simply Wall St estimates that, over the next few years: ^[28]

Earnings are expected to grow by about 10.1% per year.
Revenue is forecast to rise by around 4.4% per year.
Return on equity is projected to be about 17% in three years.

Those are healthy numbers for a mature global biotech, but they are slower than the broader biotech sector, where average earnings growth is closer to 20–24% per annum. ^[29]

Valuation frameworks

From a valuation standpoint:

With today’s price near A$183 and trailing EPS around A$8.16, CSL trades on a trailing P/E of just over 22x, versus a historical range often north of 30x. ^[30]
Yahoo Finance data suggests a forward P/E in the mid‑20s and a price‑to‑sales ratio of about 3.8x, alongside a price‑to‑book ratio near 3x. ^[31]
Quant models such as GuruFocus’s “GF Value” estimate a fair value around A$340 per share, implying substantial upside – though such models are highly sensitive to growth and discount‑rate assumptions and should be treated as directional rather than precise. ^[32]

Short‑term technical tools tell a very different story. Investing.com’s daily technical summary recently classified CSL as a “Strong Sell”, while StockInvest labels it a “weaker hold” with a still‑negative trend, reflecting the heavy down‑move and the lack of a clear bottom formation so far. TS2 Tech+2StockInvest+2

Medium‑term share price outlook: 2026–2027

Putting these pieces together, the mainstream sell‑side view looks something like this:

Over 12 months, analyst targets cluster in the A$240–250 range, with several higher‑conviction calls closer to A$300. That implies expected upside of about 30–60% if the restructuring proceeds broadly as planned and Seqirus stabilises. Webull+3TS2 Tech+3TipRanks+3
On the ADR line (CSLLY), StockScan’s long‑term model projects an average price of about US$66.93 in 2027, up roughly 10–11% from recent levels around US$60, with a high scenario above US$80. ^[33]
Combining forecast ~10% annual EPS growth, a 2.4–2.5% dividend yield and some degree of valuation re‑rating, many bullish models point to a potential low‑ to mid‑teens annual total return in the medium term – but only if political and operating headwinds ease. ^[34]

It’s important to stress that these are forecasts, not guarantees. The experience of 2025 – in which CSL grew profits but still lost more than a third of its market value – is a sharp reminder of how quickly sentiment and multiples can change.

Why some investors still like CSL – and why others remain wary

The bullish case

Investors and commentators who view CSL as an opportunity at today’s price generally point to:

Global plasma leadership: CSL Behring’s plasma‑derived therapies serve chronic, life‑threatening conditions with high barriers to entry and long product lifecycles. TS2 Tech+1
Ageing demographics and rising healthcare demand, particularly for immunology and nephrology, which support long‑term volume growth. ^[35]
Robust balance sheet and cash generation, with FY25 free cash flow up nearly 60% and net leverage trending lower even as the company funds capex and buy‑backs. TS2 Tech+1
Strategic capital expenditure, including the US$1.5bn US plasma expansion and the A$1bn Melbourne vaccines facility, which should support earnings well into the 2030s. TS2 Tech+1
Pipeline depth and recent approvals in rare diseases, kidney disorders and vaccines, suggesting that R&D is still translating into commercial assets despite market scepticism. ^[36]
A more reasonable valuation than in prior years, with the stock trading on a mid‑20s forward P/E instead of the 30–40x levels that once scared off value‑minded investors. ^[37]

This is the logic behind recent articles arguing that quality healthcare names like CSL may now be “cheap for patient investors”, even if near‑term news remains noisy. ^[38]

The bearish (or cautious) case

Sceptics, on the other hand, emphasise several risks:

Execution risk on a very large restructuring: thousands of job cuts, closing plasma centres, consolidating R&D and re‑shaping an entire division all at once leaves plenty of room for disruption. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2
Seqirus uncertainty: flu vaccine demand is highly sensitive to public‑health policy and behaviour. The recent 12% slide in US vaccination rates shows how quickly conditions can change, and CSL’s spin‑off timetable has already been pushed back once. ^[39]
Political risk, particularly in the US, where changing vaccine policies and funding priorities have already forced CSL to cut guidance. ^[40]
R&D productivity concerns: some analysts worry that CSL’s large R&D budget has not translated into growth strong enough to justify historic valuation multiples, one reason the stock has been punished as the market shifts toward value. ^[41]
Technical downtrend: many quantitative and chart‑based models still flag CSL as a sell or only a weak hold, reflecting the absence of a sustained base or trend reversal to date. TS2 Tech+2StockInvest+2

Put bluntly, the debate is whether 2025 represents a temporary reset for a high‑quality franchise – or the start of a longer period in which growth slows, political risk stays elevated and CSL’s valuation never quite gets back to where it was.

Key catalysts and risks to watch after 4 December 2025

Investors following CSL from here will likely focus on:

Restructuring milestones in 2026: evidence that job cuts, plasma‑centre closures and R&D consolidation are delivering the promised US$500–550m in annual cost savings without damaging core franchises. TS2 Tech+1
Seqirus performance and spin‑off timeline: data on vaccination rates, margins and contracts, plus any fresh guidance about when the spin‑off might be revived after the October delay. ^[42]
Ramp‑up of the Melbourne vaccine and antivenom facility: volumes, profitability and the practical impact of the long‑term government supply agreement. ^[43]
Progress on the US$1.5bn US plasma expansion: capacity additions, utilisation rates and returns on capital over the next several years. TS2 Tech
Macro and policy environment: especially US healthcare policy around vaccines and reimbursement, and broader market appetite for higher‑multiple growth stocks if interest‑rate expectations change again. TS2 Tech+1
Next earnings update: current schedules point to the next major results release and investor update in February 2026, which will give the first real look at how FY26 is tracking against the lowered guidance. ^[44]

Bottom line

As of 4 December 2025, CSL Limited is a very different proposition from the near‑untouchable growth star it was a few years ago. The company still controls a powerful global plasma and rare‑disease franchise, is investing aggressively in vaccines and manufacturing, and enjoys a balance sheet strong enough to fund both capex and buy‑backs. TS2 Tech+2TS2 Tech+2

Yet the share price tells its own story: down roughly 35% year‑to‑date, trading close to its 52‑week low, and still viewed with caution by many investors after guidance cuts, a delayed spin‑off and heavy exposure to politicised vaccine markets. ^[45]

Analysts, on average, see meaningful upside from here, but their models assume that CSL executes its restructuring, that Seqirus stabilises, and that today’s policy headwinds are cyclical rather than permanent. The market, for now, is demanding proof.

For anyone considering CSL, this remains a high‑quality but higher‑risk blue chip than it used to be – a stock where the long‑term opportunity and the near‑term uncertainty are both unusually large.