Cracker Barrel (CBRL) Stock Tumbles After Q1 2026 Earnings Miss and Lowered Outlook: Latest News and Analyst Forecasts

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (NASDAQ: CBRL) is back in the spotlight on December 10, 2025, as investors digest a tough first quarter of fiscal 2026 and another reset to the company’s outlook.

The stock, already battered after an 18‑month strategic overhaul and dividend cut, sold off sharply in pre‑market trading after Cracker Barrel reported weaker‑than‑expected sales, a swing to a quarterly loss, and a lower full‑year revenue forecast. ^[1]

By mid‑day, CBRL was trading around $27 per share, only slightly above its 52‑week low near $25.62 and more than 60% below its 12‑month high around $71.93, underlining how far investor sentiment has fallen on the once‑stalwart dividend name. ^[2]

Key takeaways for December 10, 2025

Q1 FY26 revenue fell 5.7% year over year to about $797 million, missing Wall Street estimates and reflecting weaker traffic and retail sales. ^[3]
Cracker Barrel swung to a GAAP net loss of roughly $25 million, versus a small profit a year ago; adjusted EPS came in at –$0.74, slightly worse than analyst expectations. ^[4]
Management cut its fiscal 2026 outlook, trimming revenue guidance to $3.2–$3.3 billion and projecting adjusted EBITDA of $70–$110 million, down from prior targets. ^[5]
The stock dropped about 7–8% in pre‑market trading and featured among the day’s biggest losers in consumer discretionary and broader market “movers” lists. ^[6]
Major hedge fund Marshall Wace LLP boosted its stake by 375%, now owning roughly 1.1% of the company, while overall institutional ownership sits around 96%. ^[7]
On the research side, Wells Fargo cut its price target to $30, UBS recently lowered its target to the same level, and Zacks Research upgraded CBRL from “Strong Sell” to “Hold”—but the broader consensus remains cautious. ^[8]

How CBRL stock is trading today

The market reaction has been volatile.

Pre‑market: Benzinga and other outlets flagged Cracker Barrel as a notable loser in early trading, with the stock down roughly 7–8% and changing hands around $25–$25.50 after the earnings release and guidance cut. ^[9]
During regular hours: Real‑time pricing shows CBRL around $27, reflecting a partial rebound but leaving shares near their 52‑week lows and far below their levels prior to the strategic overhaul announcement in 2024. ^[10]

Market commentary from outlets tracking the day’s biggest movers repeatedly ties the decline to weak sales, a reduced outlook, and ongoing brand and operational controversy—including backlash over a logo refresh and kitchen process changes that the company has since rolled back. ^[11]

In short, the price action reinforces the market’s view that Cracker Barrel is now a high‑beta turnaround story rather than a sleepy income stock.

Q1 2026 earnings: sales down, margins crushed

Cracker Barrel’s first quarter of fiscal 2026 (ended October 31, 2025) was weak across almost every major line item.

According to earnings call highlights compiled by GuruFocus and Investing.com:

Total revenue: about $797.2 million, down 5.7% from the prior‑year quarter. ^[12]
Restaurant revenue: roughly $650.6 million, down 4.8%.
Retail revenue: about $146.6 million, down around 9–10%, underlining softness in the iconic “country store” shops. ^[13]

Comparable‑store metrics tell the real story:

Same‑store restaurant sales declined 4.7%, driven by a 7.3% drop in traffic, partially offset by higher average checks. ^[14]

The traffic decline is consistent with commentary that:

Consumers are becoming more value‑sensitive,
Industry‑wide casual dining traffic is under pressure, and
Cracker Barrel’s own missteps—like changes in biscuit preparation, menu positioning, and a briefly adopted new logo—alienated some core customers before management reversed course. ^[15]

On profitability:

Adjusted EBITDA collapsed to about $7.2 million, just 0.9% of sales, compared with $45.8 million (5.4% margin) a year earlier. ^[16]
The company reported an adjusted loss per share of –$0.74, slightly worse than the consensus estimate of roughly –$0.71 to –$0.68. ^[17]
On a GAAP basis, Cracker Barrel swung to a net loss of roughly $25 million, versus a small profit in the prior‑year quarter. ^[18]

Management emphasized some positives: operational leadership changes, restoring previous kitchen processes, and bringing back beloved menu items have already improved guest satisfaction scores by a few percentage points, and the Cracker Barrel Rewards loyalty program now accounts for roughly 40% of tracked sales. ^[19]

However, those improvements have not yet translated into traffic growth, and the Q1 numbers show just how thin the margin for error has become.

Outlook reset: lower revenue, weaker traffic, leaner marketing

The biggest headlines from the quarter weren’t only about what happened, but what management now expects for the rest of fiscal 2026.

Based on company commentary and press coverage:

Cracker Barrel now forecasts fiscal 2026 revenue of $3.2–$3.3 billion, a cut from the prior range of approximately $3.35–$3.45 billion. ^[20]
Adjusted EBITDA is guided to $70–$110 million, a wide range that reflects both traffic uncertainty and the impact of cost‑cutting and transformation spending. ^[21]
Management’s updated traffic guidance calls for a decline of 8–10% for the year, with hopes for some stabilization or recovery in the back half if guest experience scores continue to improve. ^[22]

One interesting twist: Cracker Barrel is actually cutting ad spend for the remainder of the year by roughly $12–$16 million versus the prior year. The rationale is that Q1 marketing spend was unusually elevated for the aborted brand relaunch, and that the loyalty program provides a cheaper, more targeted channel to reach customers. ^[23]

That’s a double‑edged sword: less marketing lowers costs, but could slow traffic recovery if brand damage from the “botched” repositioning proves deeper than expected.

Strategic transformation and the 2024 dividend shock

The current quarter can’t be understood without rewinding to May 2024, when Cracker Barrel announced a multi‑year “strategic transformation plan” and stunned income investors by slashing its dividend.

Key elements of that plan included: ^[24]

A shift to reinvest more heavily in the business,
A major brand refresh and store remodel program,
Menu changes, digital enhancements, and operational streamlining, and
A drastic cut to the quarterly dividend from $1.30 to $0.25 per share—an 81% reduction.

At the time, the company talked about fiscal 2027 ambitions of:

$3.8–$3.9 billion in sales, and
$375–$425 million in adjusted EBITDA,
supported by $600–$700 million of capital expenditures on remodels and upgrades through 2027. ^[25]

Investors reacted harshly in 2024—shares fell more than 10% on the dividend cut alone—and the transformation has proved bumpier than management hoped. ^[26]

The brand refresh and logo change in particular drew outsized media and political attention, prompting the company to reverse parts of the redesign and revert some operational changes after customer backlash. ^[27]

Fast‑forward to December 2025, and the story is that of a long‑term overhaul colliding with short‑term execution missteps and a tougher consumer backdrop.

Dividend and balance sheet: still paying, but with less cushion

Despite the losses and guidance cut, Cracker Barrel is maintaining its reduced quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share, implying a $1.00 annual payout. At a share price around $27, that’s roughly a 3.7% forward yield. ^[28]

On the balance sheet side:

The company ended Q1 with around $550 million of debt, according to earnings call summaries. ^[29]
Liquidity metrics highlighted by MarketBeat and Investing.com show a current ratio near 0.5 and quick ratio around 0.2, signaling limited short‑term flexibility and heightening the importance of stabilizing cash flows. ^[30]

The ongoing dividend now looks more like a token yield to keep income‑oriented shareholders engaged than the defining feature of the stock it once was.

What analysts and models are saying now

The December 10 news flow also includes a flurry of fresh analyst and forecast updates.

Street ratings: cautious “Hold” with a wide target range

Across several data aggregators:

StockAnalysis reports that 8 analysts covering Cracker Barrel have a consensus “Hold” rating, with an average 12‑month price target of about $42.75. That implies roughly 58% upside from levels in the mid‑20s, but the target range is very wide—from $24 on the low end to $55 on the high end. ^[31]
TipRanks, using a slightly smaller analyst set, shows an average price target of about $38.17, with a high of $50 and low of $24, again with a consensus “Hold” rating (1 Buy, 3 Holds, 2 Sells). ^[32]
MarketWatch and MarketBeat data suggest a similar picture: around 10 analysts overall, an average target close to $40, and a blended view skewed toward neutral to negative (“Hold” to “Reduce”). ^[33]

Recent actions highlight how sentiment has shifted more negative as fundamentals softened:

UBS cut its target from $48 to $30 on December 2, while keeping a neutral stance. ^[34]
Citigroup slashed its target to $24 and carries a strong sell‑type view. ^[35]
Truist Securities is on the opposite end with a Strong Buy rating and a target of $50, underscoring how divided the Street is. ^[36]
Wells Fargo joined the more cautious camp today, lowering its target to $30 and signaling a more muted outlook for the turnaround. ^[37]

In a smaller but symbolically important move, Zacks Research upgraded CBRL from “Strong Sell” to “Hold”, while MarketBeat still characterizes the aggregate recommendation as “Reduce.” ^[38]

Quantitative and macro context

Visible Alpha data summarized by S&P Global earlier this year projected flat revenue around $3.47 billion in 2025 and a gradual improvement in net income and EBITDA as cost cuts and the remodel program scale. ^[39]

The updated guidance to $3.2–$3.3 billion in fiscal 2026 now implies a reset from those earlier expectations, with profitability recovery likely pushed further out unless traffic stabilizes sooner than management’s new base‑case scenario suggests. ^[40]

Layer on top a macro environment where markets are fixated on the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cut path and small‑cap, consumer‑sensitive names like Cracker Barrel are especially exposed to swings in consumer confidence and financing costs. ^[41]

Hedge funds and institutions: buying into the pain

Even as retail sentiment has turned sour, institutional investors remain deeply involved in CBRL.

The most notable update today:

Marshall Wace LLP, a major hedge fund, increased its stake in Cracker Barrel by 375% in the second quarter, bringing its holdings to about 254,865 shares, or roughly 1.14% of the company, valued around $15.6 million at the time of filing. ^[42]

MarketBeat’s breakdown shows that about 96% of Cracker Barrel’s shares are held by institutions, including hedge funds, pension plans, and asset managers. ^[43]

That concentration cuts both ways:

It can support liquidity and price discovery,
But it also means that if institutions collectively lose patience with the turnaround, selling pressure can be intense, as the price slide over the past year illustrates.

The investment debate: value reset or value trap?

From an investor’s perspective, Cracker Barrel has shifted from being primarily a dividend income story to a high‑uncertainty turnaround with a still‑meaningful yield attached.

Bullish arguments

Supporters of the stock tend to emphasize: ^[44]

The strength and familiarity of the brand, particularly along U.S. interstate corridors.
A clearly articulated multi‑year transformation plan with defined financial targets (higher EBITDA, refreshed stores, improved digital capabilities).
Early signs that guest satisfaction metrics are improving after reversing controversial changes.
The potential for significant upside if the company even partially closes the gap between current EBITDA and its 2027 ambitions, given the stock is trading at a fraction of its historical valuation and more than 60% below its 52‑week high.
A 3–4% dividend yield that, while much lower than in the past, still offers some cash return while investors wait.

Bearish arguments

Skeptics focus on: ^[45]

The sharp traffic declines and the revised expectation for 8–10% traffic erosion in fiscal 2026, despite heavy transformation spending.
Execution risk around a $600–$700 million capex program in an environment of wage inflation, uncertain demand, and rising competition.
A leveraged balance sheet with limited short‑term liquidity, leaving little room for additional missteps.
The risk that the brand’s attempted modernization—and subsequent U‑turn—has confused both core and prospective customers, with no guarantee that the original “Old Country” positioning can be fully restored in consumers’ minds.
A wide and volatile analyst target range, where some high‑profile firms see fair value in the mid‑20s, close to where the stock already trades.

Given that tension, it isn’t surprising that the consensus rating is basically “Hold”: the Street generally sees upside if the turnaround works, but enough execution and macro risk that many investors prefer to watch from the sidelines for now. ^[46]

Bottom line: what December 10, 2025 tells us about CBRL

For Cracker Barrel, December 10, 2025 is another inflection point:

The earnings miss and guidance cut confirm that the transformation is taking longer and proving more painful than originally promised. ^[47]
The stock’s slide to near 52‑week lows, even after massive repricing in 2024–2025, shows that confidence remains fragile. ^[48]
At the same time, ongoing institutional interest, improving qualitative guest metrics, and Street models that still point to material upside in a successful turnaround mean the story is far from over. ^[49]

For investors and analysts tracking CBRL, the key questions from here are:

Can management translate better guest experience scores and menu/operations fixes into stabilized or improving traffic in 2026?
Will the company be able to execute its remodel and cost‑cutting program without further damaging the brand or over‑stretching the balance sheet?
And does the current share price adequately reflect those risks—or is the stock still, as some analysts suggest, “at the bottom of the barrel” for a reason? ^[50]