D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) is back in the spotlight on December 23, 2025, after a headline-driven surge on Monday turned into a sharp cooldown on Tuesday—an all-too-familiar pattern for a high-volatility “pure-play” quantum computing stock. The trigger: D-Wave’s announcement that it will showcase commercial quantum technology at CES 2026, putting its pitch for real-world use cases in front of a mainstream tech audience. [1]
As of 11:37 a.m. ET (16:37 UTC) on Dec. 23, QBTS was trading at $30.09, down $2.10 (-6.5%) from the prior close, after swinging between an intraday high of $31.98 and a low of $29.85 on heavy volume.
Below is what investors and analysts are focusing on right now—today’s catalyst, the latest Wall Street forecasts, and the fundamentals that will likely decide whether QBTS can turn 2025’s momentum into a more durable 2026 narrative.
QBTS stock price action: from CES-fueled jump to next-day pullback
Monday’s move was dramatic. D-Wave shares closed around $32.1 on Dec. 22, up about 19.7%, with trading volume reported near 62.6 million shares, well above typical levels—an unmistakable sign that the rally was driven by attention as much as conviction. [2]
By Tuesday, the mood shifted. Fast Company described a broader “holiday week” spike across quantum names—D-Wave up nearly 15% at one point—followed quickly by profit-taking, while noting the precise catalyst behind the sector-wide surge wasn’t entirely clear beyond the D-Wave CES headline adding fuel. [3]
That pattern matches what market watchers have been warning about for months: quantum stocks can trade more like a “theme” than a traditional fundamentals-driven group, especially during thin liquidity periods and after widely shared headlines. [4]
The big headline: D-Wave is taking “commercial quantum” to CES 2026
D-Wave’s December 22, 2025 press release is the clearest near-term catalyst behind the latest spike. The company said it will participate in CES 2026 as a sponsor of CES Foundry, a two-day AI/quantum/blockchain-focused event at Fontainebleau Las Vegas on January 7–8, 2026. [5]
What D-Wave says it will show at CES
According to D-Wave, it plans to showcase:
- its annealing quantum computing technology
- hybrid quantum-classical solvers
- real-world customer use cases that it says demonstrate measurable benefits (sometimes “beyond classical computing alone”) [6]
D-Wave also says its VP of quantum technology evangelism, Murray Thom, will run a masterclass and demo on January 7 (1:00–1:30 p.m. PT) about “how to realize value from quantum computing today,” including examples across manufacturing, supply chain, materials science, and telecom. [7]
CES itself positions Foundry as “the home for AI and quantum innovation” at CES, with programming and demos aimed at real-world impact—exactly the kind of framing quantum bulls want in 2026. [8]
Why the CES angle matters for QBTS stock
For a stock like QBTS, CES isn’t just a marketing event—it’s a sentiment event.
D-Wave is effectively trying to move the conversation from “quantum is science fiction” to “quantum is shipping,” and investors reacted because the company is leaning into commercialization rather than distant research milestones. That commercialization framing also shows up in recent analyst notes and sector coverage. [9]
Wall Street forecast roundup: price targets are climbing, but consensus still implies volatility
The most important “forecast” story on Dec. 23 is not a single number—it’s the wave of new coverage. Major banks and research shops have been initiating or expanding coverage on pure-play quantum companies, including D-Wave, as the sector becomes too big (and too volatile) to ignore. [10]
Analyst consensus snapshot (as of late December 2025)
MarketBeat’s compiled view shows:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy”
- Average 12-month price target:$33.67
- High target:$46
- Low target:$10
- Ratings mix:14 Buys / 1 Hold / 1 Sell (based on its methodology) [11]
That spread (from $10 to $46) underscores the core issue with QBTS forecasts: analysts broadly agree quantum is a real long-term theme, but they disagree sharply on timing and on how to value revenue that is still relatively small.
The latest notable calls
Several recent notes and coverage initiations have helped shape the current bull case:
- Wedbush initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $35 target, according to multiple reports summarizing the call. [12]
- Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy recommendation (and reports in the market have circulated a $45 target in coverage summaries/roundups). [13]
- Evercore ISI initiated coverage with an “Outperform” rating and a $44 target, in coverage summaries. [14]
- Other coverage roundups cite additional targets in the mid-$30s to mid-$40s, reflecting a “bullish but not unanimous” Street stance. [15]
Meanwhile, Investopedia noted Wedbush’s view that quantum could remain pressured in the near term but expand by decade’s end, and pointed out that Wedbush’s $35 targets for Rigetti and D-Wave imply roughly 50% upside from then-current levels in that context. [16]
A key “forecast” detail from a bullish analysis
One Investing.com analysis argued D-Wave stands out going into 2026 due to early traction and a long cash runway, while emphasizing that revenue is still small relative to valuation. It also pointed to Jefferies analysts modeling a 73% compound annual revenue growth rate over the next several years (per that analysis). [17]
Fundamentals check: what D-Wave’s latest results say about traction
Beneath the headlines, D-Wave’s most recent quarterly report toggle-switches between “encouraging momentum” and “still early-stage.”
In its Q3 2025 results (reported Nov. 6, 2025), D-Wave reported:
- Revenue:$3.7 million, up 100% year over year
- Bookings:$2.4 million, up 80% sequentially from Q2
- GAAP gross margin:71.4%
- Net loss:$140.0 million (with the company attributing the increase primarily to non-cash, non-operating warrant-related charges)
- Cash balance:$836.2 million as of Sept. 30, 2025 [18]
Two additional details from that same release matter for the 2026 “commercialization” story:
- D-Wave said it had more than 100 revenue-generating customers over the most recent four quarters, including nearly two dozen Forbes Global 2000 companies. [19]
- It said that after Q3 ended, the company closed over $12 million in additional bookings. [20]
This is the tension investors are trying to price: revenue is growing quickly, but from a small base; losses are large, but not always reflective of core operations due to warrant accounting; and the company has a substantial cash position that analysts view as a runway. [21]
Why QBTS bulls argue D-Wave is “different” in quantum
Quantum computing isn’t one market—at least not yet. It’s multiple approaches competing for use cases and credibility. D-Wave’s pitch has long been that quantum annealing is commercially useful now for optimization problems, and that hybrid methods (quantum + classical) can create practical results sooner than a pure “wait for fault-tolerant gate-model systems” roadmap.
D-Wave’s CES announcement leans heavily into that: showcasing annealing systems, hybrid solvers, and customer use cases that it says show measurable benefits. [22]
The company also states it is building both annealing and gate-model quantum computers, and in its CES release it highlighted scale claims and usage stats—more than 100 organizations and over 200 million problems submitted to its systems (per the company). [23]
Investors should treat these as company claims, but they are central to why QBTS tends to trade as the “commercial traction” name when quantum stocks catch a bid.
Near-term catalysts: what could move D-Wave stock next
For a Google News / Discover audience, the practical question is simple: what’s next on the calendar that could create another sharp move?
1) CES Foundry: January 7–8, 2026 (Las Vegas)
D-Wave’s CES Foundry presence is the immediate narrative catalyst—especially the January 7 masterclass/demo slot. If the company can translate “use cases” into specific, measurable customer outcomes (or announce new customer wins), it could reinforce the commercialization storyline that powered Monday’s move. [24]
2) Qubits 2026: January 27–28, 2026 (Boca Raton, Florida)
D-Wave’s annual user conference, Qubits 2026, is positioned as a roadmap-and-customer-results event. The company says it will share progress across annealing, gate-model initiatives, and hybrid-quantum work (including quantum + AI angles), with sessions spanning industrial use cases and government/defense applications. [25]
3) U.S. Government push: a new dedicated business unit
On December 2, 2025, D-Wave announced the formation of a U.S. Government Business Unit, led by Jack Sears Jr., aimed at driving adoption across federal customers and building secure, requirements-compliant systems. [26]
The company also pointed to its Advantage2 system being operational at Davidson Technologies in Alabama, framing it as groundwork for mission-critical use cases. [27]
Government adoption narratives tend to matter for quantum stocks because they imply large, multi-year contracts—but they also introduce procurement timing risk and headline sensitivity.
4) Next earnings date: estimates vary (watch for confirmation)
Earnings calendars disagree on timing.
- MarketBeat says D-Wave has not confirmed its next earnings date and lists an estimated date of March 12, 2026 (based on prior reporting patterns). [28]
- TipRanks lists April 10, 2026 (after close) as the report date and labels it “confirmed” on its earnings page. [29]
- Other market calendars also show early April projections. [30]
Given the inconsistency, investors typically treat these as tentative until D-Wave posts an official date on its investor relations channels.
The risk backdrop: quantum stocks can move like a “theme trade,” not a cash-flow story
Even in bullish coverage, the risk language around quantum remains blunt: extreme volatility and uncertain commercialization timelines.
Reuters captured the dynamic in November, describing the “Quantum 4” (Rigetti, IonQ, D-Wave, Quantum Computing Inc.) as a group that has been highly volatile as investors struggle to put a “right price” on a piece of the future—and noted analysts themselves say quantum valuations can be “more art than science.” [31]
Investopedia similarly noted that quantum stocks have been pressured at times by broader tech sentiment (including AI-bubble worries), even as bulls like Wedbush argue the long-term opportunity could expand significantly by the end of the decade. [32]
And in today’s trading context, Fast Company highlighted the practical short-term reality: in a holiday week, big one-day swings can show up fast—and reverse fast—without a single definitive “fundamental” explanation. [33]
Bottom line on Dec. 23, 2025: D-Wave is getting mainstream attention, but the stock is still priced on belief
QBTS is trading at the intersection of three forces:
- A real near-term visibility catalyst (CES Foundry in January) that plays directly to the “commercial quantum now” storyline. [34]
- An unusually active analyst cycle that is lifting price targets and expanding institutional attention—while still leaving wide disagreement on valuation. [35]
- Fundamentals that are improving but early: rapid percentage growth, small absolute revenue, meaningful losses influenced by non-cash items, and a cash position that buys time. [36]
For readers watching QBTS into 2026, the question is less “Is quantum real?” and more “Can D-Wave repeatedly prove ROI-driven use cases—often enough, and at large enough scale—to justify today’s expectations?”
References
1. www.dwavequantum.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. www.fastcompany.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.dwavequantum.com, 6. www.dwavequantum.com, 7. www.dwavequantum.com, 8. www.ces.tech, 9. www.dwavequantum.com, 10. www.investors.com, 11. www.marketbeat.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.quiverquant.com, 16. www.investopedia.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.dwavequantum.com, 19. www.dwavequantum.com, 20. www.dwavequantum.com, 21. www.dwavequantum.com, 22. www.dwavequantum.com, 23. www.dwavequantum.com, 24. www.dwavequantum.com, 25. www.dwavequantum.com, 26. www.dwavequantum.com, 27. www.dwavequantum.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.tipranks.com, 30. www.marketscreener.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.investopedia.com, 33. www.fastcompany.com, 34. www.dwavequantum.com, 35. www.marketbeat.com, 36. www.dwavequantum.com
