D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) is back in the quantum-computing spotlight on December 16, 2025, after Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $45 price target—a fresh endorsement in a sector that’s been equal parts hype engine and stress test for investor patience. [1]
As of the latest available trading data on Dec. 16, QBTS was trading around $24 a share (after a $23.74 prior close), underscoring the scale of upside implied by the new target—and the volatility that comes with “future-of-compute” stocks.
But today’s news cycle isn’t a one-note bull chorus. Alongside the Jefferies call, commentary published the same day also stresses losses, cash burn fears, and the market’s shifting tolerance for speculative tech—a reminder that QBTS is still a story stock, and story stocks live and die by narrative momentum. [2]
What’s driving D-Wave (QBTS) headlines on Dec. 16, 2025
The central catalyst is simple: Jefferies is stepping into the quantum arena and planting flags. In a Reuters item carried by TradingView, Jefferies said it is initiating coverage on D-Wave with a “buy” rating and a $45 price target, pointing to ecosystem growth, a two-pronged roadmap, D-Wave’s full-stack platform, and enterprise workload “stickiness.” [3]
A separate write-up on Investing.com adds more color on Jefferies’ thesis—specifically that the firm sees tailwinds lifting “usage across quantum architectures,” and that Advantage2’s commercial availability via D-Wave’s Leap cloud service can convert rising curiosity into bigger pilot budgets and more activity feeding D-Wave’s annealing pipeline. [4]
In other words: Jefferies is betting that quantum demand is moving from science project to budget line item—and that D-Wave can capture a meaningful slice because it already sells a working platform for certain classes of problems.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where Wall Street stands right now
Today’s Jefferies initiation lands on top of a growing stack of bullish targets from multiple firms in December—creating an unusually target-rich environment for a company that (financially speaking) is still early in commercialization.
Here are the key targets and initiations being cited across coverage available on Dec. 16:
- Jefferies: Buy, $45 target (initiated Dec. 16) [5]
- Mizuho: Outperform, $46 target (initiated Dec. 11, per multiple reports and summaries) [6]
- Evercore ISI: Outperform, $44 target (initiated Dec. 3, per summaries) [7]
- Benchmark: target raised to $35 (date cited in summaries as Nov. 10) [8]
- Rosenblatt / Cantor Fitzgerald: both cited in summaries as maintaining bullish stances with targets around $40 [9]
Zooming out from individual firms, one GuruFocus summary states that (based on the one-year targets it’s aggregating) the average target price sits around the high-$30s with a relatively wide range between low and high estimates—reflecting both upside dreams and execution risk. [10]
Meanwhile, a MarketScreener item (paywalled) cites FactSet polling that pegs D-Wave’s mean price target around $40 and an overall “buy”-leaning stance. [11]
The deeper forecast inside Mizuho’s “next big compute” framing
A MarketWatch summary of Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh’s thesis frames quantum as “The Next Big Compute Revolution,” while warning that near-term revenue can be lumpy. The same summary cites a long-range market forecast (quantum potentially reaching the hundreds of billions by the mid-2030s) and assigns D-Wave a meaningful prospective share—useful context for why targets are being set so aggressively despite today’s still-small revenue base. [12]
Fundamentals check: D-Wave’s cash position is strong, but the revenue base is still small
If you want the cleanest snapshot of the business behind the ticker, D-Wave’s Q3 2025 results release (filed as an SEC exhibit) is doing a lot of heavy lifting in today’s debate:
- Q3 2025 revenue:$3.7 million (up 100% year-over-year) [13]
- Q3 2025 bookings:$2.4 million (and the company said it closed over $12 million in additional bookings after quarter-end) [14]
- Cash balance (as of Sept. 30, 2025):$836.2 million, described as the highest in company history [15]
- GAAP net loss per share (Q3 2025):$(0.41); the company also reported an adjusted net loss per share of $(0.05) excluding non-cash warrant-liability remeasurement impacts [16]
That combination—massive cash plus still-meaningful losses—is exactly why QBTS produces such polar-opposite commentary:
- Bulls see a company funded well enough to keep building until the market catches up.
- Bears see a company with runway, yes—but also a business model that still needs to scale fast enough to justify the market’s expectations.
Reuters’ company financials section also shows how early this remains in pure revenue terms, listing 2024 revenue under $10 million (per LSEG/Reuters data), reinforcing that the stock is priced more on trajectory than on current scale. [17]
Capital structure update: warrant redemption brought in cash—and dilution math matters
One concrete, non-hype corporate action that’s been part of the QBTS story in recent weeks is D-Wave’s completed redemption of public warrants.
In a Nov. 21, 2025 press release, D-Wave said it completed redemption of all outstanding public warrants. The company reported that 4,746,358 warrants were exercised at $11.50 per warrant for approximately 6.9 million shares, generating about $54.6 million in cash proceeds. D-Wave also disclosed that 270,820 warrants remained unexercised and were redeemed at $0.01 each, and that the warrants ceased trading on the NYSE (while common stock continues under QBTS). [18]
This matters for two reasons investors keep circling:
- Liquidity and runway: cash proceeds are real, and “fund the roadmap” is the whole game in quantum.
- Share count pressure: more shares in circulation can dilute per-share upside if revenue growth doesn’t keep pace.
Government push: D-Wave builds a dedicated U.S. federal channel
Another theme repeatedly referenced in today’s coverage is D-Wave’s attempt to formalize and accelerate public-sector demand.
On Dec. 2, 2025, D-Wave announced it formed a U.S. government-focused business unit led by Jack Sears Jr., positioned to drive adoption of D-Wave’s quantum products and services across federal needs. [19]
For investors, this is a classic “could be huge, could be slow” catalyst:
- Government contracts can be sticky and sizable.
- They can also be procurement-heavy, compliance-heavy, and timeline-heavy.
The bullish interpretation is that D-Wave is building a pipeline that can mature into recurring, defensible demand. The skeptical interpretation is that “public sector” becomes a narrative crutch when commercial uptake is uneven.
Insider activity: what Dec. 2025 filings are showing
D-Wave’s stock has been volatile enough this year that insider filings are getting extra attention.
Two items are being discussed around today’s news cycle:
1) CFO’s Form 4: option exercise and sale (reported for Nov. 20 activity)
A Form 4 filed with the SEC shows CFO John M. Markovich exercised options and sold 200,000 shares, with a reported weighted average sale price of $22.94 (with sales executed across a range of prices). The filing also states the transactions were executed pursuant to a Rule 10b5‑1 trading plan adopted on Aug. 21, 2025. [20]
2) Reuters/Refinitiv note: Form 144 filed Dec. 15
Separately, a Reuters/Refinitiv item notes Markovich filed a Form 144 on Dec. 15, 2025 proposing to sell 11,562 shares, listing J.P. Morgan Securities LLC as broker. [21]
Important nuance (because markets love to overreact): a planned sale notice or a pre-set trading plan does not automatically equal “insider thinks the business is doomed.” But in a high-expectations stock, any insider selling can amplify jitters.
The bull case vs. the bear case—using today’s coverage as the debate stage
Why bulls think QBTS can work from here
The bullish thesis being repeated today boils down to: D-Wave is “practical quantum now” plus a credible scale roadmap later.
Jefferies’ initiation leans on that framing—ecosystem tailwinds, a two-track roadmap, and adoption drivers as Advantage2 becomes commercially accessible through Leap. [22]
And D-Wave’s own Q3 materials highlight technical and commercial milestones that feed the “this isn’t just lab theater” narrative—customer activity, bookings, and ongoing hardware work (including ongoing Advantage2 emphasis). [23]
Why bears think the floor can still fall out
The bearish stance is equally coherent: revenue is still tiny, losses are real, and the market’s patience for speculative tech can evaporate quickly.
A Dec. 16 FXLeaders analysis argues that widening losses and skepticism about execution continue to dominate sentiment, explicitly pointing to the $(0.41) quarterly loss per share and warning about the market’s rising focus on profitability over distant potential. [24]
Even if you disagree with that conclusion, the underlying pressure point is factual: D-Wave’s commercialization curve has to steepen materially over time—or the stock’s multiple becomes hard to defend.
What to watch next for D-Wave stock
A few near-term “narrative accelerants” are on the calendar and on investor radar:
- Qubits 2026 conference (Jan. 27–28, 2026, Boca Raton, Florida): D-Wave has already publicized this event as a showcase for customers, executives, and technical roadmaps—often a place where new partnerships or proof points can surface. [25]
- Additional analyst revisions: With multiple firms initiating coverage in December, it wouldn’t be surprising to see more target changes and sector-wide note flow that moves the entire quantum basket (including QBTS). [26]
- Follow-through on bookings and enterprise pilots: Jefferies’ thesis explicitly hinges on pilots feeding the “annealing funnel,” which means investors will be watching for signs that experimentation is converting into repeatable revenue. [27]
Bottom line
On Dec. 16, 2025, D-Wave Quantum stock is being pulled in two directions at once:
- Upward by a surge of sell-side optimism (Jefferies joining other firms with targets in the mid-$40s). [28]
- Downward by the hard realities of early-stage commercialization: small revenue, meaningful losses, and the market’s fickle appetite for long-dated tech bets. [29]
That tension is exactly why QBTS can rip higher on a single note—and also why it can punish complacency just as fast.
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.fxleaders.com, 3. www.tradingview.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.gurufocus.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.gurufocus.com, 10. www.gurufocus.com, 11. www.marketscreener.com, 12. www.marketwatch.com, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.sec.gov, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.dwavequantum.com, 19. www.dwavequantum.com, 20. www.sec.gov, 21. www.tradingview.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.fxleaders.com, 25. www.sec.gov, 26. www.gurufocus.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.investing.com, 29. www.sec.gov
