D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) Stock on December 6, 2025: Government Push, Q3 Surge and 2026 Forecast After a 200% Rally

Published: December 6, 2025 – Informational only, not investment advice.

D-Wave Quantum stock today: a wildly volatile 2025 winner

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) has turned into one of 2025’s most explosive – and controversial – technology trades.

As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025, QBTS finished around $27 per share, down roughly 6% on the day after an earlier run-up. ^[1] That pullback comes after an extraordinary year in which:

• D-Wave stock is up about 200%+ in 2025, making it one of the strongest performers among quantum computing names. ^[2]
• Shares previously hit a record high near $46.75 in October, before correcting sharply. ^[3]
• Over the last month, the stock dropped roughly 24% across 21 trading days, as investors reassessed its speculative valuation. ^[4]

At a recent price near $27, market cap sits around $10 billion, with a free float above 340 million shares and short interest close to 19% of float – a setup that can amplify both rallies and sell‑offs. ^[5]

The story behind that volatility blends three big themes:

1. A new U.S. government business unit focused on defense and national security.
2. Q3 2025 results showing revenue doubling but losses still heavy.
3. Wall Street and media coverage sharply split between “multi‑bagger potential” and “overstretched valuation.”

Let’s walk through the latest news, forecasts and analysis as of December 6, 2025.

1. New U.S. Government Business Unit: D-Wave leans into defense

On December 2, 2025, D-Wave announced a dedicated U.S. government business unit to sell its quantum computers and services into federal agencies. ^[6]

Key points:

• The unit will be led by Jack Sears Jr., a veteran government contracting executive now serving as Vice President of U.S. Government Solutions. He brings more than 25 years of experience across defense and aerospace, including P&L responsibility, pricing and federal acquisition compliance. ^[7]
• The new division will coordinate go‑to‑market, application development and specialized product work for secure systems that meet U.S. federal requirements. ^[8]
• D-Wave highlighted growing U.S. government interest in quantum technologies to tackle logistics, transportation and broader national security workloads. ^[9]

The government push builds on earlier deals:

• D-Wave’s Advantage and Advantage2 annealing systems are already deployed at Europe’s Jülich Supercomputing Centre and are being integrated with cutting-edge exascale systems. ^[10]
• In the United States, an Advantage2 system is operational at Davidson Technologies’ facility in Alabama, intended to support mission‑critical government problems and eventually sensitive workloads. ^[11]

This government business narrative has been a major driver of the latest price action. Zacks and Finviz‑hosted commentary noted that, after a six‑week correction in quantum names, stocks like D-Wave “broke higher” on strong volume as traders bet that defense‑driven demand could power another leg of the rally. ^[12]

More tactically focused pieces from Insider Monkey and others reported double‑digit daily spikes (11–19%) in QBTS this week as the market digested the new government unit news and potential contract pipeline. ^[13]

2. Q3 2025 earnings: revenue doubles, margins surge, losses remain heavy

D-Wave released its Q3 2025 results on November 6, 2025, and those numbers are still at the heart of current valuations. ^[14]

Headline metrics:

• Revenue: $3.7 million, up 100% year‑on‑year from $1.9 million; roughly 8% sequential growth from $3.1 million. ^[15]
• Bookings: $2.4 million in the quarter, up 80% versus Q2’s $1.3 million, indicating rising demand, even though year‑over‑year bookings growth was modest. ^[16]
• GAAP gross profit: $2.7 million, up 156% from a year ago, with GAAP gross margin rising to 71.4% from 55.8%. ^[17]
• Non‑GAAP gross margin: 77.7%, up roughly 10.5 percentage points year‑on‑year. ^[18]

For the first nine months of 2025:

• Revenue reached $21.8 million, up 235% from the prior year period. ^[19]
• GAAP gross margin expanded to 84.8%, driven in part by a high‑margin system sale. ^[20]

However, the income statement still looks deeply red:

• Q3 GAAP operating expenses were $30.4 million (up 40% YoY), reflecting higher headcount, fabrication costs and stock‑based compensation. ^[21]
• For the first nine months, GAAP operating expenses reached $84.1 million, up 38% year‑on‑year. ^[22]
• Because of substantial warrant‑related accounting, net loss for the nine months hit $312.7 million, versus $57.8 million a year earlier. Most of that jump comes from $260 million in non‑cash warrant remeasurement charges and related items. ^[23]
• On a more normalized basis, adjusted net loss for the nine months was $52.8 million, slightly better than last year’s $57.8 million, implying gradual improvement under the surface despite headline losses. ^[24]

Third‑party coverage from The Quantum Insider and Zacks underlines this duality: D-Wave is showing strong top‑line and margin progress while still burning substantial cash to build out technology, sales and manufacturing. ^[25]

3. Balance sheet: record cash and the end of public warrants

One reason bulls are comfortable funding those losses is the company’s unusually large cash pile.

• In the Q3 press release, D-Wave reported its highest cash balance ever – over $836 million as of September 30, 2025. ^[26]
• Zacks recently highlighted that this gives D-Wave “plenty of runway” to continue R&D, expand geographically and build new infrastructure, at a time when many quantum peers are more capital‑constrained. ^[27]

A related structural milestone came on November 21, 2025, when D-Wave completed the redemption of all outstanding public warrants:

• Out of the existing warrants, 4.75 million were exercised at $11.50 per share, bringing in roughly $54.6 million in cash. ^[28]
• Around 270,820 warrants remained unexercised and were redeemed for $0.01 each, after which no public warrants remain outstanding and the instruments were delisted from the NYSE. ^[29]

This “housekeeping” step cleans up the capital structure but comes with trade‑offs:

• Existing shareholders have been diluted by millions of newly issued shares.
• Non‑cash warrant remeasurement charges contributed heavily to the huge GAAP losses reported year‑to‑date. ^[30]

Still, many analysts now frame D-Wave as a well‑funded quantum platform with cash resources that compare favorably to several peers. ^[31]

4. Wall Street analyst ratings and price targets for QBTS

Despite the volatility, sell‑side coverage has become increasingly active in recent months.

According to Quiver Quantitative, which compiles Street research:

• 7 firms currently rate QBTS a “Buy” or “Overweight,” with zero official “Sell” ratings recorded over the last several months. ^[32]
• 8 analysts have issued price targets in the last six months, with a median target of $34, implying upside from current levels. ^[33]
• Individual targets range from $13 (Piper Sandler) to $41 (Canaccord Genuity), with other buys clustered in the mid‑30s to around $40. ^[34]

Recent target and rating highlights:

• Evercore ISI initiated coverage this week with an “Outperform” rating and a $44 price target, calling D-Wave its first rated quantum stock and emphasizing the company’s commercial revenues, full‑stack ecosystem and roughly $800 million in cash. ^[35]
• B. Riley Securities raised its target to $36 (from $33) while maintaining a “Buy” rating in early November. ^[36]
• Benchmark reiterated a “Buy” with a $35 target, while Rosenblatt and Cantor Fitzgerald each set targets around $40 with positive ratings. ^[37]
• Stifel has maintained a “Buy” at $26, and Piper Sandler stands out with a more cautious $13 target despite an “Overweight” label. ^[38]

Other aggregators such as Fintel and Zacks show an average 12‑month price target in the high‑30s, implying upside of around 40–50% from recent prices, though methodologies differ. ^[39]

The bottom line from Wall Street: analysts are broadly bullish on the technology and balance sheet, but there is wide disagreement on what that is worth today.

5. Media and independent analysis: “multi‑millionaire maker” or “too expensive”?

Beyond formal analyst notes, D-Wave is getting heavy coverage from financial media and independent research – and the tone is decidedly mixed.

Bullish narratives

• A Motley Fool piece titled “1 Quantum Computing Stock That Could Make You a Multimillionaire” positions D-Wave as one of the early leaders in practical quantum computing, arguing it could become a top long‑term play in the space for investors who can stomach the volatility. ^[40]
• Zacks’ “QBTS Soars 168% in 2025: Should You Buy for 2026 or Wait for Pullback?” (referenced in their balance sheet article) frames the recent surge as partly justified by improving margins and a robust cash position, though it leans to a more neutral Rank #3 (Hold) stance short term. ^[41]
• Several pieces on quantum stocks as a theme – including Finviz/Zacks’ “Time to Buy Quantum Stocks? (QBTS, IONQ, RGTI)” – highlight D-Wave as one of the strongest momentum names in the group after rebounding from a steep correction. ^[42]

These bullish takes often emphasize:

• D-Wave’s annealing‑based Advantage2 system with 4,400+ qubits, improved energy scale and reduced noise, already available via its Leap cloud. ^[43]
• Claims of achieving “quantum advantage” or “quantum supremacy” on certain optimization problems versus top supercomputers. ^[44]
• A growing commercial customer base across airlines, semiconductors, banking, manufacturing and government research labs. ^[45]

Bearish and cautionary views

On the other side, a series of recent Seeking Alpha articles – widely summarized by other outlets – argue that D-Wave’s valuation has run far ahead of fundamentals:

• “D-Wave Quantum’s Rich Monetization and Hefty Balance Sheet Meet Overstretched Valuations” says that while enterprise adoption is growing and monetization is improving, the share price already discounts very ambitious scenarios. ^[46]
• Additional pieces such as “D-Wave Quantum: Strong Execution, But Valuation Turns Progress into Risk” and “D-Wave Quantum: Down 52%, But Still Too Expensive to Buy” reportedly rate the stock a Sell, warning that even after large pullbacks, market cap remains high relative to revenues and cash flows. ^[47]

Fundamental‑style platforms echo similar concerns:

• Simply Wall St notes that D-Wave trades at around 13× price‑to‑book value, a lofty multiple even by software and IP‑heavy standards. ^[48]
• AlphaSpread characterizes recent 24% price declines as investors reacting to “speculative valuation” and ongoing operating losses, despite the 200%+ rise year‑to‑date. ^[49]

Meanwhile, a Forbes column, “QBTS Stock Outlook: After 168% Gains, What’s Next?”, highlights that D-Wave commands a multi‑billion‑dollar valuation on revenues in the tens of millions and questions how sustainable that disconnect is. ^[50]

The consensus outside of pure momentum traders: D-Wave may have tremendous upside if its technology and government deals translate into large, recurring revenues – but today’s valuation already prices in a lot of that hope.

6. Forecasts for 2026 and beyond: what the market is pricing in

Because D-Wave is still early‑stage and unprofitable, forecasts are highly uncertain and vary widely.

However, several trends emerge from current projections and commentary:

1. Street price targets imply upside but with big error bars.
   • Aggregated analyst targets in the mid‑30s to low‑40s suggest potential 40–60% upside over the next 12 months if execution stays on track and risk appetite holds. ^[51]
2. Profitability is still some distance away.
   • While specific EPS consensus numbers are volatile and often gated behind terminals, available snippets from earnings‑forecast pages point to continued annual losses in 2025–2026, though less negative than prior years as gross profit scales. ^[52]
3. Revenue growth is expected to remain high but lumpy.
   • Q3 and year‑to‑date 2025 revenue growth above 100% is unlikely to stay at that pace, but analysts and forecast platforms generally expect strong double‑digit to high‑double‑digit growth driven by system sales, capacity deals (like the €10 million Italy contract), and expanding cloud usage. ^[53]
4. Multiple scenarios assume government and enterprise contracts scale materially.
   • Forecast services and thematic reports often assume that U.S. defense, European HPC centers and industrial users meaningfully ramp quantum workloads in the back half of the decade, which would benefit early commercial players like D-Wave. ^[54]

At the same time, macro‑style commentary – including from Forbes and several valuation‑focused blogs – warns that even small disappointments in contract timing, revenue recognition or technology milestones could trigger sharp multiple compression for a company trading so far ahead of current earnings. ^[55]

7. Key risks: what could go wrong for QBTS holders?

Any discussion of D-Wave stock has to acknowledge that this is high‑risk, speculative territory. Among the main risks cited by analysts and commentators:

1. Valuation risk
   • With a price‑to‑book ratio above 13 and a market cap in the billions on sub‑$30 million in annualized revenue, even bullish observers admit D-Wave is priced for very robust future growth. ^[56]
2. Ongoing operating losses and cash burn
   • Even on an adjusted basis, D-Wave lost more than $50 million over the first nine months of 2025 and expects to continue investing heavily in R&D, hardware fabrication and go‑to‑market. ^[57]
3. Technological and competitive uncertainty
   • D-Wave is a leader in quantum annealing, which is well‑suited for certain optimization problems, but much of the industry buzz and funding still centers on gate‑model approaches pursued by players like IonQ, IBM and various startups. Some critics question how wide D-Wave’s long‑term moat will be if gate‑based systems catch up on real‑world optimization tasks. ^[58]
4. Customer and contract concentration
   • A meaningful portion of revenue comes from large, lumpy deals – such as full system sales or multi‑year capacity agreements – with government entities and a limited set of large enterprises and research institutions. The timing of a few contracts can materially swing results quarter to quarter. ^[59]
5. Insider selling and high short interest
   • A recent Quiver Quantitative review shows 27 insider sale transactions vs just 1 purchase over the past six months, including substantial sales by the CEO, CFO and other executives. ^[60]
   • StockTitan data also shows nearly one‑fifth of the float sold short, amplifying the potential for both short squeezes and sharp drops as sentiment shifts. ^[61]
6. Regulatory and policy risk
   • As quantum computing becomes more tightly linked to national security, government policies or export controls could affect D-Wave’s ability to sell systems or work with certain partners, particularly across borders. ^[62]

For many investors, these risks mean QBTS is not a core holding, but rather a speculative satellite position – if it is held at all.

8. What to watch next

For readers tracking D-Wave Quantum stock into 2026, here are the catalysts most likely to move the share price from here:

1. Concrete government contract wins and revenue from the new U.S. business unit – not just announcements, but signed deals and recognized revenue. ^[63]
2. Progress in converting pilots and proofs‑of‑concept into recurring cloud revenue via the Leap platform and Advantage2 capacity agreements (for example in Italy and Europe more broadly). ^[64]
3. Updates on technology roadmaps – including any new claims of quantum advantage, improvements in qubit count or coherence, and D-Wave’s efforts to develop gate‑model hardware alongside annealers. ^[65]
4. Earnings reports and guidance – especially evidence that revenue growth can remain strong while adjusted losses narrow, rather than ballooning as the company scales. ^[66]
5. Sentiment swings in the broader quantum and AI trade – quantum stocks have moved in lockstep with speculative risk appetite this year, as seen in sector‑wide sell‑offs and rebounds. ^[67]

Final thoughts: speculative quantum pure‑play, not a sure thing

D-Wave Quantum today sits at the intersection of:

• Real technical and commercial progress – doubling revenues, rising gross margins, marquee HPC and government customers, and a claimed quantum advantage. ^[68]
• A very strong balance sheet – with more than $800 million in cash and no remaining public warrants. ^[69]
• Extremely rich valuation and intense volatility, with insiders taking profits and skeptics warning that even after pullbacks, expectations remain sky‑high. ^[70]

For conservative investors, those trade‑offs may be too much. For aggressive, long‑term‑oriented traders who understand the risks, QBTS is likely to remain one of the most closely watched quantum pure‑plays into 2026.

Either way, D-Wave’s next steps – particularly in U.S. government markets and scaled commercial deployments – will go a long way toward deciding whether 2025’s rally was a speculative spike or the start of a bigger quantum story.

Important: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consider consulting a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.

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