D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) is seeing another volatile session on December 24, 2025, with the stock trading around $27.17, down about 6.7% on the day after opening near $29.66 and swinging between roughly $26.95 (low) and $29.93 (high). Trading volume is elevated at about 17.5 million shares by late morning UTC time, underscoring how quickly sentiment can turn in the quantum-computing “pure play” names.
Today’s pullback lands just days after a sharp move higher earlier this week, when investors reacted to D-Wave’s plan to bring its commercial quantum message to CES 2026—and just as newly filed insider-trading disclosures add another layer of scrutiny around the stock’s rapid 2025 run-up. [1]
Dec. 24, 2025: What’s moving D-Wave Quantum stock right now?
Several overlapping narratives are shaping QBTS trading on Christmas Eve:
1) Profit-taking after the CES catalyst and a momentum-heavy tape
D-Wave announced on December 22, 2025 that it will participate in CES 2026 as a sponsor of the CES Foundry, a two-day event in Las Vegas on January 7–8, 2026, where the company plans to showcase its quantum technology and customer use cases. [2]
Momentum stocks often see “buy the headline, sell the follow-through” behavior—especially into a holiday week—so a reversal after an event-driven spike isn’t unusual, even when the underlying news is constructive.
2) Newly filed insider sales (via option exercise) are back in focus
Two fresh Form 4 filings show that both the CFO and CEO exercised options and sold shares tied to those exercises, with transactions dated December 22, 2025 and filings signed December 23, 2025. Both filings indicate the trades were made under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans adopted earlier in 2025. [3]
Insider selling does not automatically signal fundamental trouble—especially when it’s plan-based—but in a stock that’s moved as quickly as QBTS has, it can amplify “overheated” concerns and contribute to short-term pressure.
3) Options traders are positioning for a wide range of outcomes
A Benzinga options-activity review published today describes a cluster of “unusual” trades and frames a near-term “price territory” ranging from roughly the low-$20s to mid-$40s across observed strikes/expirations—an illustration of how broadly traders are bracing for volatility rather than a single-direction bet. [4]
4) A growing debate: “platform breakout” vs. “valuation bubble”
Today’s most discussed split in the QBTS narrative is straightforward:
- The bull case says D-Wave is pushing quantum beyond the lab into measurable, commercial use cases (especially hybrid quantum-classical workflows) and is using major stages like CES to accelerate adoption. [5]
- The bear case says the stock’s 2025 surge has outrun revenue fundamentals, leaving QBTS vulnerable to a sharp mean reversion if the broader quantum trade cools.
A Motley Fool commentary published today leans into the bearish framing, arguing that the stock’s momentum could face a significant correction in 2026. [6]
Today’s QBTS coverage roundup: news, forecasts, and analysis dated Dec. 24, 2025
Here are the notable, widely circulated items published on December 24, 2025 that are shaping how investors talk about D-Wave Quantum stock today:
- Price/volatility snapshot: GuruFocus notes QBTS falling about 4.9% in its automated market report, emphasizing both the company’s strong gross margin profile and the ongoing profitability challenge. [7]
- Options flow narrative: Benzinga’s options-focused piece flags unusual activity and highlights how traders are positioning across multiple strikes and expirations, while also repeating several recent analyst targets cited in the market. [8]
- Forward-looking “where could it be by end of 2026?” take: A Motley Fool article syndicated on Nasdaq argues that the stock’s valuation leaves it exposed to a major correction, even after a strong 2025 performance. [9]
Separately, although it’s not dated today, the CES 2026 announcement (Dec. 22) remains the primary corporate catalyst still driving the conversation on Dec. 24—especially because the CES Foundry dates are in early January, meaning the story has a near-term “next milestone” the market can anchor to. [10]
CES 2026: what D-Wave actually announced—and why markets cared
D-Wave’s December 22 press release is a classic example of “visibility as a catalyst.”
According to the company, D-Wave will:
- Participate in CES 2026 as a sponsor of the CES Foundry at the Fontainebleau Las Vegas, running January 7–8, 2026. [11]
- Showcase its annealing quantum computing technology, hybrid quantum-classical solvers, and “real-world customer use cases.” [12]
- Host a masterclass and demo on Wednesday, January 7 (1:00–1:30 p.m. PT), focused on how quantum can create value “today” in areas like manufacturing, supply chain, materials science, and telecommunications. [13]
- Promote its annual Qubits 2026 user conference on January 27–28, 2026 in Boca Raton, Florida. [14]
For a stock like QBTS—where investor perception and “proof points” matter—CES is less about immediate revenue and more about credibility, deal-flow potential, and narrative acceleration. Public company quantum names trade heavily on milestones, partnerships, and adoption signals, so a high-profile venue can meaningfully move the stock even before any new contract is announced.
Insider transactions: what the Form 4 filings show
Two SEC Form 4 filings—both describing transactions dated December 22, 2025—are receiving close attention:
CFO John M. Markovich
- Exercised options for 100,000 shares at $0.92 (transaction code “M”). [15]
- Sold 100,000 shares at a weighted average price of $30.0262 (transaction code “S”). [16]
- The filing states the option exercise and sale were executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted August 21, 2025. [17]
CEO Alan E. Baratz
- Exercised options for 793,712 shares at $0.91. [18]
- Sold 793,712 shares at a weighted average price of $30.1282 (with sales reported across multiple prices in a $30.00–$30.55 range). [19]
- The filing states these trades were executed under a Rule 10b5-1 plan adopted August 11, 2025. [20]
How markets typically interpret this:
Planned, 10b5-1-linked sales are often viewed as less “informative” than discretionary open-market selling. But in a fast-running, headline-driven stock, even plan-based sales can weigh on the tape because they (1) add supply, and (2) reinforce the idea that insiders are monetizing elevated prices.
Analyst forecasts: where Wall Street sees QBTS going
Recent quantum-sector coverage initiations and target resets have created a wide target range for D-Wave—an important reminder that QBTS is still a high-uncertainty name even among bullish analysts.
One of the most-cited sector calls this month came from Wedbush, which initiated coverage on several U.S.-listed quantum “pure plays” with Outperform ratings and assigned D-Wave a $35 target, implying meaningful upside from mid-December levels at the time. [21]
In other recent coverage highlighted across market reports and summaries, targets frequently referenced for QBTS include:
- Evercore ISI: Outperform, $44 target. [22]
- Jefferies: Buy, $45 target. [23]
- Mizuho: Outperform, $46 target. [24]
Benzinga’s options piece published today repeats the same general band of targets (mid-$30s to mid-$40s) while noting how quickly these names can swing around sentiment shifts. [25]
Important context for readers: Price targets are not “forecasts” in the way a weather model is a forecast. They are typically 12-month views based on assumptions that can change quickly—especially in emerging technology categories where revenue is still scaling.
Fundamentals: revenue is growing, margins look better, and cash is sizable—yet profitability remains the hurdle
D-Wave’s most recent reported quarter (Q3 fiscal 2025, reported Nov. 6, 2025) shows a business that is scaling, but from a relatively small base:
- Q3 revenue:$3.7 million, up 100% year-over-year. [26]
- Q3 bookings:$2.4 million, and the company said it closed over $12 million in additional bookings after quarter-end. [27]
- Q3 GAAP gross margin:71.4% (with the company attributing part of the margin shift to an Advantage system upgrade to an Advantage2 processor at Jülich). [28]
- Net loss vs. adjusted net loss: The company reported a large GAAP net loss that it said was driven primarily by non-cash warrant-related remeasurement charges, while adjusted figures were much smaller. [29]
From a balance-sheet perspective, D-Wave reported cash and cash equivalents of $836.2 million as of September 30, 2025 (vs. $178.0 million at year-end 2024), a meaningful cushion for an R&D-heavy company that is still working toward sustainable profitability. [30]
The company also disclosed that as of November 5, 2025 it had 346,718,581 shares outstanding (plus a smaller number of exchangeable shares). [31]
Why this matters for the stock:
QBTS valuation and trading behavior are heavily influenced by (1) perceived “runway” to reach commercial scale and (2) dilution expectations. A large cash balance can calm runway fears, but investors still watch share count closely—especially in high-volatility tech themes.
The bull case for QBTS in 2026
Supporters of D-Wave’s equity story typically point to five pillars:
- Commercial posture, not just lab R&D. D-Wave is positioning itself as “practical quantum” and is showcasing customer use cases—an important distinction in a sector where many narratives are still pre-commercial. [32]
- Hybrid quantum-classical workflows. Management messaging emphasizes hybrid solvers as a bridge between today’s compute stack and future quantum advantage. [33]
- A visible 2026 “calendar of catalysts.” CES Foundry (Jan. 7–8) and the Qubits user conference (Jan. 27–28) give investors near-term checkpoints for product demos and customer storytelling. [34]
- Analyst optimism across the sector. Wedbush’s initiation framed quantum as a transformational technology that could “supercharge” advances in AI over time—an argument that has resonated with growth investors. [35]
- Cash to fund the roadmap. The latest quarterly filing shows substantial cash relative to the company’s current revenue scale. [36]
The bear case: why some expect a sharp pullback risk
Skeptics focus on a different set of realities:
- Revenue is still small relative to market expectations. Even with strong year-over-year growth, the revenue base remains modest compared with the valuation implied by recent share prices. [37]
- Profitability is not yet established. Losses remain material, and the path to consistent earnings depends on both adoption and operating discipline. [38]
- Momentum can reverse fast. Today’s session is another reminder that QBTS can swing sharply intraday—making it vulnerable to broader “risk-off” moves or sector rotations.
- Hype risk in the quantum theme. A Nasdaq-syndicated Motley Fool analysis published today argues that the stock’s valuation expansion could unwind significantly if investors start treating quantum stocks as a bubble-like trade in 2026. [39]
What to watch next for D-Wave Quantum stock
For investors tracking QBTS into early 2026, these are the next concrete dates and datapoints likely to drive headlines:
- Jan. 7–8, 2026: CES Foundry presence and quantum showcases (D-Wave sponsor). [40]
- Jan. 7, 2026: D-Wave masterclass/demo scheduled for 1:00–1:30 p.m. PT. [41]
- Jan. 27–28, 2026: Qubits 2026 user conference in Boca Raton. [42]
- Next earnings timing: Market calendars differ, but one widely followed estimate places the next earnings release around March 12, 2026 (not yet confirmed by the company). [43]
- Further Form 4 filings / insider activity: With 10b5-1 plans in place, investors will watch for additional disclosures that could influence near-term supply and sentiment. [44]
Bottom line on Dec. 24, 2025
D-Wave Quantum stock is trading like a classic “frontier tech” momentum name: it can rally hard on visibility catalysts (like CES) and pull back just as quickly on profit-taking, insider-sale headlines, and options-driven volatility. [45]
For readers following QBTS into 2026, the key question isn’t whether quantum computing is important—it’s whether D-Wave can translate its real-world demonstrations, customer stories, and hybrid-quantum positioning into repeatable revenue scale and improving unit economics fast enough to justify the market’s expectations.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
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