New York time check: It’s 12:20 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025.
D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) is having another volatile session in the post‑Christmas market. As of about 12:05 p.m. ET, QBTS traded near $25.33, down roughly 8% on the day after opening at $26.74 and swinging between $27.79 (high) and $25.145 (low) on volume of about 17.1 million shares.
That move stands out because the broader U.S. equity tape looks relatively calm: SPY (a proxy for the S&P 500) was essentially flat to slightly lower, while QQQ (a proxy for the Nasdaq‑100) was modestly higher around the same time.
This kind of divergence—a small‑cap “theme” stock moving hard while indexes barely budge—has been a defining feature of the quantum computing trade in 2025, and it’s showing up again today.
QBTS stock price today: why D‑Wave is moving more than the market
Even by quantum-stock standards, today’s drop is sharp. Three forces are colliding:
1) Holiday liquidity can exaggerate every move
The day after Christmas is famous for being statistically strong for the S&P 500, but it also tends to come with lighter participation. MarketWatch points to historical patterns (via Bespoke Investment Group) suggesting Dec. 26 has been unusually consistent for index gains over decades—useful context for why many investors expect a “Santa Claus rally” tailwind around this window. [1]
Low liquidity doesn’t cause a stock to drop, but it can amplify it—especially in names where retail flow and options activity can matter more.
2) Insider transactions hit the tape right as the stock was hot
Recent Form 4 filings show option exercises followed by share sales by top executives on December 22, 2025:
- CEO Alan Baratz exercised options for 793,712 shares at $0.91 and sold 793,712 shares at a weighted average price around $30.1282, leaving 2,633,163 shares directly owned (and the filing notes the trades were under a Rule 10b5‑1 plan adopted Aug. 11, 2025). [2]
- CFO John Markovich exercised options for 100,000 shares at $0.92 and sold 100,000 shares at a weighted average price around $30.0262, with the filing also indicating a Rule 10b5‑1 plan adopted Aug. 21, 2025. [3]
Rule 10b5‑1 plans are designed to pre-schedule trades, which can reduce the “panic headline” factor. But markets still react because the mechanical reality is the same: shares hit the market.
3) The entire “Quantum 4” cohort has been a roller coaster
Reuters described quantum computing stocks as a high-volatility pocket where investors struggle to value early-stage companies, creating dramatic swings as sentiment shifts. [4]
D‑Wave often gets grouped with peers like IonQ and Rigetti in that narrative—big potential, early commercialization, and big valuation debates.
The freshest D‑Wave news: CES 2026 and the Qubits conference calendar
While today’s price action is negative, the news flow around D‑Wave has been actively positive in late December—one reason the stock has been so reactive.
CES 2026: D‑Wave is taking quantum to a mainstream tech stage
On December 22, D‑Wave announced it will participate in CES 2026 as a sponsor of the CES Foundry (a two‑day event at Fontainebleau Las Vegas, January 7–8, 2026). [5]
Key detail investors are watching: D‑Wave says it will showcase its annealing systems and hybrid solvers with real‑world customer use cases, and its VP of quantum technology evangelism Murray Thom is scheduled to deliver a masterclass + demo on Jan. 7 focused on how businesses can get value from quantum computing today (including discussion of quantum + AI + blockchain). [6]
That matters because one of the biggest debates around quantum stocks is timeline: “Is this science fair… or business?” CES is not a peer‑reviewed venue, but it is a visibility venue, and visibility can move theme stocks.
Qubits 2026: a near‑term catalyst with customers, roadmap, and partners
D‑Wave also announced its annual Qubits 2026 user conference will be held January 27–28, 2026 in Boca Raton, Florida. [7]
The company says the event will include:
- Talks from executives, customers, and scientists
- Updates on annealing and gate‑model roadmaps and “quantum AI” direction
- Case studies across industries (manufacturing, supply chain, aerospace, life sciences, AI)
- Government/defense application discussions
- A virtual livestream option for day one [8]
For investors, conferences like this can act as information catalysts—not because they guarantee revenue, but because they can clarify pipeline momentum, partnerships, and product direction.
Fundamentals check: D‑Wave’s revenue is small, but growth and cash runway are the bull case
D‑Wave’s stock story in 2025 has increasingly centered on a simple tension:
- The business is still early (and unprofitable),
- but revenue growth, bookings, and cash position have improved enough for Wall Street to take it more seriously.
In its Q3 2025 results (quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025), D‑Wave reported:
- Revenue of $3.7 million, up ~100% year over year [9]
- Bookings of $2.4 million, up 80% sequentially from Q2, plus the company said it closed over $12 million in additional bookings after quarter-end [10]
- Cash balance “over $836 million”, described as the highest in company history [11]
The headline net loss figure was large—$140.0 million—but the company attributed the increase largely to non‑cash, non‑operating charges tied to warrant accounting and warrant exercises after big price moves. [12]
The warrant overhang has also been cleaned up
On November 21, D‑Wave announced it completed redemption of all outstanding public warrants. The company said 4,746,358 warrants were exercised for about 6.9 million shares, generating approximately $54.6 million in cash proceeds; remaining unexercised warrants were redeemed for $0.01 each, and no warrants are outstanding. [13]
Investors tend to like this because it reduces structural complexity and potential dilution surprises (though it also means some dilution has already occurred via exercises).
Share count: what the SEC filing says
In its quarterly filing covering the period ended Sept. 30, 2025, D‑Wave reported 346,718,581 common shares outstanding as of Nov. 5, 2025, plus 3,403,222 exchangeable shares convertible one‑for‑one into common stock. [14]
That share base is one reason QBTS can move sharply: there’s enough float for heavy trading, but it’s still a story stock where sentiment can swing fast.
Wall Street forecasts and analyst takes: price targets cluster in the $40s, but risk warnings remain loud
One of the most important shifts in 2025: major banks and research shops initiated coverage of quantum pure-plays.
Consensus-style price targets (aggregators)
TipRanks shows (based on 13 analysts in the last three months) an average price target of $40, with a high forecast of $48 and a low forecast of $35. [15]
Those targets were calculated when the stock was trading higher (TipRanks’ “last price” reference in that snapshot is around $29.12). The key takeaway isn’t the exact upside math—it’s that many analysts are modeling meaningful upside while accepting massive volatility as part of the package.
Named analysts and firms: bullish, but not naïve
Investor’s Business Daily reported that Evercore ISI initiated D‑Wave with an Outperform rating and a $44 price target, highlighting liquidity/cash and D‑Wave’s commercial positioning. [16]
Barron’s also summarized the expanding coverage trend heading into 2026, reporting that Jefferies and Wedbush recommend buying IonQ and D‑Wave, framing D‑Wave’s annealing approach as commercially mature relative to some peers, while still emphasizing the sector’s early stage and high volatility. [17]
The sector-wide reality check
Reuters’ reporting on the quantum cohort emphasized how difficult these businesses are to value today—small revenues, big expectations, and rapid sentiment shifts—creating a setup where upgrades, downgrades, and thematic hype can dominate day‑to‑day trading. [18]
And that brings us to the uncomfortable truth investors must keep in view:
Analyst targets are not price guarantees. They are scenario outputs. In story-driven sectors, the scenario that matters most is often “Does adoption arrive fast enough to justify valuation before the market gets bored?”
Risks investors should take seriously (especially after a big 2025 run)
QBTS is not a “sleep well and clip coupons” stock. The main risk buckets being debated in current commentary include:
Valuation vs. revenue (the classic early-tech tension)
Forbes’ Great Speculations noted D‑Wave’s valuation context relative to its revenue base and the broader “what’s priced in?” debate around its 2025 run. [19]
Reuters made a similar point more broadly about the quantum cohort: these stocks can trade at valuations that look extreme compared with current revenues because they’re effectively pricing a future industry rather than today’s income statements. [20]
Commercialization timing and competition
IBD’s sector coverage stressed that while Wall Street has turned more constructive on the space, analysts still flag adoption hurdles, competitive pressure (including big tech), and execution risk. [21]
Lumpy results and optics risk
D‑Wave’s own reporting highlights that non-operating accounting effects (like warrant remeasurement) can swing reported GAAP results dramatically. [22]
Add in headline-sensitive items like insider sales—even when 10b5‑1 scheduled—and you get a stock that can gap on optics.
What investors should know before the next session (and what to watch into today’s close)
The NYSE core trading session runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, and today (Dec. 26) is a normal session following the Christmas holiday closure. [23]
Even though the market is open right now, the “before the next session” checklist is still useful because QBTS is prone to overnight headlines and after-hours re-pricing. Here are the concrete things investors typically monitor from here:
- Watch the close (3:50–4:00 p.m. ET imbalance + closing auction): thin holiday trading can turn a modest imbalance into a surprisingly large last-minute price move. [24]
- Scan for filings and updates: D‑Wave has had material items recently (conference announcements, warrants cleanup, government unit formation). A new 8‑K or additional Form 4s can move a headline-driven stock quickly. [25]
- Track the near-term catalyst calendar:
- Earnings date expectations vary by data provider: some services estimate March, others April. Until the company confirms, treat these as placeholders and verify through official IR channels. [28]
- Expect volatility as a base case: Reuters’ “roller-coaster” framing is not poetic exaggeration—it’s basically a risk disclosure in narrative form. [29]
Bottom line
At 12:20 p.m. ET on Dec. 26, D‑Wave Quantum stock (QBTS) is sliding sharply in a market that’s otherwise relatively steady, underscoring how idiosyncratic trading in quantum pure‑plays can be.
The near-term storyline is a tug-of-war between bullish visibility catalysts (CES 2026, Qubits 2026, expanding analyst coverage) and fragile sentiment triggers (insider sales headlines, valuation anxiety, holiday-thin liquidity). [30]
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. www.sec.gov, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.dwavequantum.com, 6. www.dwavequantum.com, 7. www.dwavequantum.com, 8. www.dwavequantum.com, 9. www.dwavequantum.com, 10. www.dwavequantum.com, 11. www.dwavequantum.com, 12. www.dwavequantum.com, 13. www.dwavequantum.com, 14. www.sec.gov, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.investors.com, 17. www.barrons.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.forbes.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investors.com, 22. www.dwavequantum.com, 23. www.nyse.com, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. www.dwavequantum.com, 26. www.dwavequantum.com, 27. www.dwavequantum.com, 28. www.zacks.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.dwavequantum.com
