D‑Wave Quantum Stock (QBTS) Falls Nearly 10% Midday: What’s Driving Today’s Move, CES 2026 Catalyst, and Wall Street Forecasts

New York time check: It is 1:58 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025—and the U.S. stock market is open.

D‑Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS) is having a sharp down session after a volatile holiday week for quantum-computing names. The latest exchange update shows QBTS trading around $24.82, down roughly $2.71 (about ‑9.8%) on the day, after an intraday high near $27.79 and low around $24.80 on elevated volume (about 23.2 million shares at the time of the quote).

The broader tape is comparatively calm: SPY is modestly lower while QQQ is roughly flat-to-slightly higher, and IWM (small caps) is weaker—an environment that often punishes high-beta, story-driven stocks first when traders de-risk.

So what’s happening with D‑Wave stock today—panic, profit-taking, or something more fundamental?

QBTS Stock Today: Why D‑Wave Is Sliding During the Session

A clean way to read today’s move is: a high-momentum stock meeting thin holiday liquidity and fast profit-taking, with a side of headline digestion.

Earlier this week, quantum stocks jumped and then pulled back in choppy “holiday week trading.” Fast Company noted D‑Wave was among the names that popped by double digits in that burst, and explicitly flagged that profit-taking appeared soon after. ^[1]

That matters because D‑Wave has also been one of the standout gainers of 2025. Fast Company put D‑Wave up 235% year-to-date (as of Tuesday in the same holiday week), underscoring how much “embedded optimism” the stock carried into late December. ^[2]
Investopedia similarly noted that even after a pullback from highs, D‑Wave shares had nearly tripled in 2025. ^[3]

When a stock has already done a moonshot, it doesn’t take much—one risk-off afternoon, one mechanical seller, one “nothingburger” catalyst—to trigger a fast air pocket.

The Insider-Transaction Headline Investors Are Parsing

One near-term headline that traders often react to (sometimes too aggressively) is insider selling.

D‑Wave CEO Dr. Alan Baratz filed a Form 4 showing that on December 22, 2025, he exercised options for 793,712 shares at $0.91 and sold 793,712 shares at a weighted average price of $30.1282 (sales executed in a range from $30.00 to $30.55), leaving 2,633,163 shares directly owned after the sale (with additional details about holdings also disclosed). ^[4]

Two details matter for context:

The filing states the transactions were executed under a Rule 10b5‑1 trading plan adopted August 11, 2025—meaning it was pre-scheduled rather than a spur-of-the-moment “CEO is bailing” move. ^[5]
Option exercises and sales can be driven by tax planning, diversification, or plan mechanics—not purely conviction.

Still, in a momentum stock, “insider sale” headlines can add to intraday pressure because short-term traders treat them as a sentiment signal.

CES 2026: The Near-Term Narrative Catalyst (and Why It Can Cut Both Ways)

One reason QBTS surged earlier in the holiday week was the company’s announcement that it will participate in CES 2026 as a sponsor of the CES Foundry event in Las Vegas on January 7–8, 2026, where it plans to showcase its annealing quantum technology, hybrid solvers, and customer use cases. ^[6]

D‑Wave also disclosed that Murray Thom, VP of Quantum Technology Evangelism, will deliver a masterclass and demo on January 7 (1:00–1:30 p.m. PT) focused on how organizations can realize value from quantum computing today. ^[7]

From an investor standpoint, CES is a classic attention catalyst:

Bull case: more visibility, more enterprise conversations, more “real-world proof.”
Bear case: hype can outrun fundamentals, and once the “event pop” fades, the stock can retrace.

Fast Company explicitly tied that early-week surge (at least in part) to the CES attendance announcement—useful context for today’s pullback as the market “unwinds” event-driven buying. ^[8]

Fundamentals Snapshot: What D‑Wave Reported Most Recently

To understand whether today’s dip is “noise” or “signal,” investors keep circling back to D‑Wave’s most recent financial update and the quality of its traction.

In its Q3 2025 results (reported November 6, 2025), D‑Wave said:

Revenue was $3.7 million, up 100% year-over-year (from $1.9 million in Q3 2024). ^[9]
Bookings were $2.4 million, up 80% from the prior quarter’s $1.3 million, and the company added that over $12 million in additional bookings closed after quarter-end. ^[10]
Cash balance was over $836 million, described as the highest in company history. ^[11]
GAAP gross margin was 71.4% (with drivers including an upgrade for the Jülich Supercomputing Centre system). ^[12]

Baratz framed the quarter as evidence of momentum across “revenue, gross profit, bookings and cash balance.” ^[13]

The release also included business updates that matter to the “commercialization narrative,” including a €10 million Q4 2025 booking tied to 50% capacity of a D‑Wave Advantage2 annealing system supporting a quantum facility in Lombardy, Italy (with an option structure described by the company). ^[14]

A crucial nuance: GAAP net loss was inflated by warrant accounting

D‑Wave reported a GAAP net loss of $140.0 million for Q3 2025, and explained that the increase was primarily driven by non-cash, non-operating charges related to remeasurement of warrant liability, plus realized losses tied to warrant exercises that rose with price appreciation of the warrants. ^[15]

That’s why some analysts and investors focus heavily on adjusted metrics in this name—while also acknowledging that the stock remains priced like a company expected to scale quickly.

Capital Structure Update: The Warrant Overhang Is Gone—But Shares Were Issued

One underappreciated 2025 development: D‑Wave eliminated its public warrants.

On November 21, 2025, D‑Wave announced it completed the redemption of all outstanding public warrants. It said 4,746,358 warrants were exercised for roughly 6.9 million shares at $11.50 per warrant, generating approximately $54.6 million in cash proceeds, and that no warrants remain outstanding after the redemption. ^[16]

For investors, that’s a tradeoff:

Positive: one fewer overhang / complexity factor.
Dilutive reality: more shares issued through exercises.

Today’s selling could reflect traders re-litigating dilution dynamics (and the general tendency for quantum stocks to trade on capital-structure headlines as much as on product milestones).

Wall Street Forecasts and Analyst Price Targets: Bullish… with Big Dispersion

Analyst coverage of quantum pure plays increased meaningfully in 2025, and D‑Wave is often cited as a sector favorite due to liquidity and its positioning in annealing and hybrid approaches.

Recent themes from published coverage:

1) Wedbush: “Outperform” initiation and a $35 target

Investopedia reported that Wedbush initiated coverage on D‑Wave (and other U.S.-listed quantum pure plays) with “outperform” ratings, and issued a $35 price target for D‑Wave—framing quantum computing as “transformational,” though still likely pressured near term. ^[17]

2) Nasdaq: “All buys” framing and upside targets into 2026

Nasdaq highlighted that all 14 analysts covering D‑Wave rated it a buy (per that article’s summary), with a high price target of $48 and a median target of $40 cited in the piece. ^[18]

3) Jefferies / Evercore / Cantor: higher targets cluster in the $40s

An Investing.com analyst-ratings piece noted Jefferies initiated with a Buy and a $45 target, while also referencing Evercore ISI with an Outperform and $44 target, and mentioning upward target moves from firms like Cantor Fitzgerald. ^[19]

Separately, Investors.com reported Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis initiated D‑Wave at Outperform with a $44 target, citing factors including liquidity and commercial revenue status. ^[20]

And Barron’s reported Mizuho initiated coverage with an Outperform and a $46 target on D‑Wave (in a broader piece on quantum stocks). ^[21]

Important reality check: price targets are not guarantees; in early-stage tech categories, they often function more like sentiment thermometers than precise valuation math.

Positioning and Volatility: Short Interest Adds Fuel to Big Swings

If QBTS feels like it moves “too much for the news,” you’re not imagining it.

Fintel’s tracker showed:

Short interest around 41.8 million shares
Short interest ~12.33% of float
Days to cover ~1.24
And substantial off-exchange short volume metrics reported via FINRA data feeds ^[22]

That kind of positioning can amplify moves both ways—sharp selloffs on risk-off afternoons, and sharp squeezes when momentum returns.

The Core Debate: Breakout Commercialization Story or Valuation Bubble?

This stock is basically a philosophical argument disguised as a ticker symbol.

The bullish argument

Proponents point to:

Growing revenue and bookings trajectory (even if still small in absolute dollars)
A large cash balance that can fund R&D and go-to-market
Expanding government-facing posture (D‑Wave formed a U.S. government business unit led by Jack Sears Jr.) ^[23]
Major visibility moments coming up (CES, Qubits 2026)

MarketBeat’s outlook piece for 2026, for example, argued that D‑Wave stands out among quantum pure plays due to early traction, cash runway, and fresh analyst support—while still acknowledging volatility and execution risk. ^[24]

The bearish argument

Skeptics focus on valuation vs. fundamentals.

A Nasdaq analysis piece arguing about where QBTS could end up by the end of 2026 described D‑Wave as trading at an extremely high price-to-sales multiple (it cited a P/S ratio in the hundreds), and noted that over the last year the company generated $24 million in revenue while posting nearly $400 million in net losses—warning that narrative-driven trading can end brutally. ^[25]

Seeking Alpha similarly framed the stock as “too expensive to buy but too speculative to short,” citing very high EV/Sales and competitive threats from large tech incumbents. ^[26]

In other words: bulls see an underappreciated commercialization path; bears see a valuation discounting multiple future miracles.

What Investors Should Know Before the Close—and Before the Next Session

Because the NYSE is open right now, the key question is less “what happened?” and more “what might matter next?”

Here are the practical, non-hype things to watch between now and the next regular session:

Watch whether today’s drop stabilizes on heavy volume.
A selloff on big volume can mean either (a) real distribution, or (b) a flush that exhausts sellers. Today’s volume is already notable.

Keep an eye on follow-up filings and planned selling.
The CEO sale was under a 10b5‑1 plan, which reduces the “signal,” but it also means the market may scrutinize future Form 4s more closely. ^[27]

Catalyst calendar: CES Foundry and Qubits 2026.
D‑Wave is positioning CES (Jan 7–8) as a commercialization showcase. ^[28]
It also has Qubits 2026 scheduled for Jan 27–28, 2026, where it says it will share product roadmap progress across annealing, gate-model efforts, and hybrid approaches. ^[29]

Know what “next earnings date” really means.
Public earnings calendars are currently estimating D‑Wave’s next report in a late‑Q1 / early‑Q2 2026 window (for example, Zacks lists March 12, 2026, while other calendars show different dates). Treat these as estimates unless confirmed by the company. ^[30]

Remember the nature of the beast: QBTS is a high-beta narrative stock.
Even supportive analysts describe quantum as early and volatile; Investopedia noted near-term pressure could persist even for “outperform”-rated names. ^[31]

References