DBS Group Holdings (SGX: D05) – Record Earnings, 81-Cent Dividend and 2026 Outlook for Singapore’s Biggest Bank

As of 1 December 2025, DBS Group Holdings Ltd (SGX: D05) is trading around S$54.25 per share, just below its recent all‑time high of S$55.55 set after its latest quarterly earnings beat. ^[1]

The stock has rerated sharply in 2025 on the back of record profits, an aggressive capital‑return programme, a leadership transition, and stronger dividend guidance into 2026. At the same time, investors still need to weigh margin pressure, recurring digital outages and ongoing regulatory capital add‑ons.

This article pulls together the latest news, forecasts and analyst views as at 1 December 2025 to give a comprehensive picture of where DBS stock stands now and what could lie ahead.

1. Where DBS Share Price Stands Now

Last traded price (1 Dec 2025, 09:22 SGT): S$54.25 ^[2]
Recent intraday record high: S$55.55 on 6 Nov 2025, after Q3 results beat forecasts. ^[3]
YTD performance: By early November, The Business Times noted DBS shares were up about 25.8% year‑to‑date, with the counter repeatedly marking new highs. ^[4]
Market capitalisation: DBS became the first Singapore‑listed company to cross US$100 billion in market cap in June 2025. ^[5]

In other words, investors are no longer looking at a “cheap” DBS: this is now a market‑darling blue chip trading near record levels, driven by earnings resilience and generous capital returns.

2. Q3 2025: Record Income, Slight Profit Dip – But a Clear Beat

DBS’ third‑quarter 2025 (Q3 FY2025) results, released on 5–6 November, are the immediate catalyst for the recent share‑price strength.

Key numbers from Q3 2025:

Net profit: S$2.95 billion
- –2% year‑on‑year, but +5% quarter‑on‑quarter
- Beat analyst consensus of about S$2.72–2.79 billion. ^[6]
Total income: A record S$5.93 billion, up ~3% year‑on‑year, driven largely by wealth management and deposit growth despite narrower margins. ^[7]
Profit before tax: S$3.48 billion, another record. ^[8]
Net interest margin (NIM):1.96%, down from 2.11% a year earlier, reflecting lower rates and intense deposit competition. ^[9]
Return on equity (ROE): Around 17.1% for the quarter, near the top end of global large‑bank peers. ^[10]

For the first nine months of 2025, DBS reported:

Total income: About S$17.6 billion, up ~5% year‑on‑year.
Profit before tax: Around S$10.3 billion, up ~3% and at a record level. ^[11]

During the Q3 briefing, new CEO Tan Su Shan described it as a “solid quarter” delivered despite “very strong interest rate headwinds,” highlighting the shift from pure rate tailwinds to fee‑ and volume‑driven growth. ^[12]

3. From Record 2024 Profits to a More Normalised 2026

DBS is coming off a blockbuster 2024:

2024 net profit: S$11.4 billion, up 11% year‑on‑year – another record.
Net interest income: ~S$15 billion, up 5%.
Consumer & wealth income: Up about 13% to S$10.2 billion.
Capital return: Dividend raised and a S$3 billion share buyback launched. ^[13]

But management is deliberately toning down expectations from here:

DBS has guided that 2026 net profit is likely to be slightly below 2025, as NIM compresses in a lower‑rate environment even while fee income grows. ^[14]
At the same time, the bank expects overall income to remain broadly stable, suggesting a soft landing rather than an earnings cliff. ^[15]

In other words, 2025 and 2026 look like “normalisation years” after the ultra‑profitable high‑rate regime of 2022–2023.

4. Dividends and Capital Returns: 75 Cents Now, 81 Cents Per Quarter Coming

4.1 Current payout: 75 cents per quarter

For Q3 2025, DBS declared a total dividend of 75 Singapore cents per share, made up of:

Ordinary dividend: 60 cents
Capital‑return dividend: 15 cents

This is up from 54 cents per share a year ago. ^[16]

At today’s price of S$54.25, an annualised S$3.00 per share (0.75 × 4) implies a current yield of about 5.5% before the planned 2026 step‑up.

DBS also reaffirmed its previously announced S$8 billion capital‑return plan running through 2027:

S$3 billion via share buybacks
S$5 billion via “capital‑return dividends” on top of ordinary dividends
Around 15% of the programme had been completed by early November. ^[17]

4.2 2026 guidance: 81 cents per quarter

The big news for income investors came alongside Q3 results:

DBS plans to raise its quarterly dividend to 81 cents per share in 2026, consisting of:
- 66 cents ordinary dividend (a 6‑cent increase from 60 cents)
- 15 cents capital‑return dividend retained. ^[18]

A full year at 81 cents per quarter means S$3.24 per share in 2026. At the current share price, that translates to a forward dividend yield of roughly 6%, consistent with broker estimates that see a 2026F yield near 6%. ^[19]

Given DBS’s strong capital ratios even after additional MAS buffers, this combination of high ROE and high payout is a major pillar of the bullish thesis on the stock.

5. Leadership Change: From Piyush Gupta to Tan Su Shan

2024 also marked the end of an era for DBS:

Long‑serving CEO Piyush Gupta, who led the bank since 2009 and presided over its digital transformation, announced his retirement and stepped down in March 2025. ^[20]
The board appointed Tan Su Shan – previously Group Head of Institutional Banking and Deputy CEO – as the new CEO, making her the first woman to lead Southeast Asia’s largest bank. ^[21]

Gupta has since been tapped by Temasek as its India chairman, underscoring his ongoing influence in the broader Singapore financial ecosystem. ^[22]

5.1 Tan’s strategy: China tech, bolt‑on deals, AI and cost discipline

In recent public comments, Tan has sketched out a strategy that is evolutionary rather than revolutionary:

China tech‑led growth: At the Reuters NEXT conference, she highlighted opportunities in Chinese deep‑tech, AI, biotech and robotics, noting early signs of recovery in cities like Shanghai and linking DBS’ strategy to China’s long‑term innovation push. ^[23]
Selective M&A: Tan has signalled that DBS is open to “bolt‑on” acquisitions that complement its regional presence rather than large, transformational deals. ^[24]
AI‑driven efficiency: DBS plans to cut around 4,000 contract and outsourced roles over three years as it automates back‑office tasks with AI, while creating about 1,000 new technology and AI roles. ^[25]

This framework suggests DBS aims to protect its high ROE in a lower‑margin future by pushing digital adoption, controlling costs and nudging into adjacent growth markets rather than chasing scale for its own sake.

6. Expansion Moves: Malaysia, Cross‑Border Payments and Regional Connectivity

6.1 Malaysia: Alliance Bank stake reshaped to 30%

One of the most closely watched strategic moves in late 2025 is DBS’s bid to enter Malaysia via Alliance Bank:

DBS is now working on a plan to acquire a 30% stake in Alliance Bank Malaysia, after an earlier idea of up to 49% met resistance at Bank Negara Malaysia. ^[26]
A 30% holding aligns with Malaysia’s typical foreign‑ownership ceiling for financial institutions, potentially smoothing the regulatory process. ^[27]
Alliance Bank’s main shareholder Vertical Theme counts Temasek (which also owns a substantial stake in DBS) as its largest external backer, adding an extra layer of strategic linkage. ^[28]

If approved, this would bring DBS in line with Singapore peers OCBC and UOB, which already have a meaningful presence in Malaysia, and could add medium‑term earnings and cross‑border trade flows.

6.2 Cross‑border payments: UnionPay partnership

On the retail and payments front, DBS recently announced a partnership with UnionPay International:

DBS UnionPay Platinum Debit cardholders now enjoy up to 8% cashback and 3% fee waivers on spending in China until March 2026, effectively offering up to 11% of value. ^[29]
The card taps UnionPay’s extensive merchant network across Belt and Road markets, and can be linked to Alipay and WeChat Pay for additional fee waivers. ^[30]

This initiative supports Singapore–China economic ties and strengthens DBS’s position in regional cross‑border payments, an area with attractive fee‑income potential as travel and tourism normalise.

7. Technology Outages, MAS Oversight and Operational Risk

Despite the strong financials, DBS has been dogged by a series of digital outages that have attracted intense scrutiny from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

7.1 The 1.8x capital multiplier

Following major outages in 2021–2023, MAS:

Imposed an additional capital requirement that forces DBS Bank to apply a 1.8x multiplier to its risk‑weighted assets for operational risk, amounting to roughly S$1.6 billion in extra regulatory capital. ^[31]
In November 2023, also ordered a six‑month pause on non‑essential IT changes and new business ventures, which lasted until 30 April 2024. ^[32]

While MAS allowed DBS to resume normal business expansion from May 2024, it explicitly retained the 1.8x capital multiplier, stating that it will only be lifted once DBS demonstrates durable service reliability. ^[33]

7.2 Fresh disruptions in 2025

In March 2025, DBS suffered another hours‑long disruption affecting digital banking and ATMs in Singapore:

Key services such as digibank mobile/online, PayLah!, DBS mTrading, ATMs and NETS payments were unavailable from early morning until around 5:48am local time. ^[34]
This was the first major outage since MAS ended the six‑month restrictions in 2024 and revived concerns about underlying technology resilience. ^[35]

There were further reports in June 2025 of intermittent login issues on DBS’s mobile app, showing that the bank is not entirely out of the woods on IT stability. ^[36]

7.3 Investor takeaway on tech risk

For shareholders, these episodes have three implications:

Capital drag: The additional operational‑risk capital reduces lending and capital‑return flexibility at the margin.
Reputational risk: Repeated outages can erode customer trust, inviting competition from digital‑first rivals.
Execution risk: DBS must deliver on its multi‑year remediation plan while simultaneously rolling out AI and new digital features – a delicate balancing act.

So far, the strong earnings and high dividend have outweighed these concerns in the share price, but any further major disruption could quickly re‑price that risk.

8. Analysts’ Forecasts and Target Prices for DBS Stock

8.1 Consensus target prices

Different aggregators show slightly different numbers, but they all point in the same direction: moderate upside from current levels.

Beansprout / SGX consensus:
- Consensus target price: S$60.43
- Implied upside: ~11.4% from S$54.25. ^[37]
MarketScreener & Investing.com data:
- Around 16 analysts cover the stock, with an average 12‑month target of roughly S$56–57.
- Target range: approx. S$46 (bearish) to S$70 (most bullish). ^[38]
SGinvestors target‑price compilation:
- Recent reports from houses such as Maybank, RHB, OCBC, CGS International, UOB Kay Hian and Phillip Securities put DBS’s targets broadly in the S$55–62.79 range, with a median around S$58. ^[39]

Overall, the street sees DBS as modestly undervalued rather than deeply discounted, with low‑double‑digit total‑return potential once dividends are included.

8.2 Earnings forecasts

After the Q3 beat, Simply Wall St and other data providers report that:

2026 revenue is forecast at around S$23.7 billion, implying about 6.1% growth from the last 12 months.
2026 EPS is projected at roughly S$3.99 per share, up about 2.1% year‑on‑year. ^[40]

These estimates imply that analysts expect DBS to offset much of the NIM compression via fee growth, volume expansion and cost management – consistent with management’s own guidance of stable income but slightly lower 2026 net profit. ^[41]

8.3 Broker stances

Recent broker commentary includes:

RHB: Maintains “Buy” with a target price around S$59, citing a 6% forecast dividend yield in FY2026 and a still‑intact “dividend and capital‑return thesis” despite softer profit guidance. ^[42]
Multiple Singapore houses (CGS International, Maybank, OCBC, UOB Kay Hian, Phillip Securities) rate the stock Add/Buy/Hold/Accumulate, with targets mostly in the mid‑40s to low‑50s earlier in 2025, upgraded progressively as the price and earnings rose. ^[43]

The upshot: DBS is widely seen as a quality income‑and‑growth play, but not a deep value bargain at current levels.

9. How DBS Stacks Up Against Other Singapore Banks

Comparisons with local peers UOB and OCBC help frame DBS’s current positioning:

DBS vs UOB:
- DBS delivered a small 2% profit decline in Q3 but beat estimates and hit a record high in total income and share price; UOB’s Q3 profit slumped 72% due to large pre‑emptive provisions. ^[44]
- UOB also guides for lower NIMs in 2026, while DBS expects income stability even as NII eases. ^[45]
DBS vs OCBC:
- OCBC’s Q3 2025 profit slightly beat expectations but the bank, too, warned of margin pressure into 2026. ^[46]

Several commentators have noted that DBS stands out as the only Singapore bank still projecting net interest income growth for 2025, even as peers flag declines, underscoring its scale advantage and deposit franchise strength. ^[47]

This helps explain why DBS trades at richer valuation multiples than UOB and OCBC, but also why the share has attracted robust institutional support.

10. Key Opportunities and Risks for DBS Stock

10.1 Positive drivers

High, rising dividends and buybacks
- A move from S$3.00 to S$3.24 per share in annual dividends from 2025 to 2026, plus ongoing buybacks, should support total returns and place DBS firmly in the “yield plus growth” camp.
Structural fee‑income growth
- Wealth management, cards and cross‑border payments (e.g. UnionPay partnership) offer capital‑light fee income that is less sensitive to interest‑rate cycles. ^[48]
Strong capital and asset quality
- Despite the operational‑risk capital add‑on, DBS still runs robust CET1 ratios and enjoys “AA‑/Aa1” credit ratings – among the highest globally for commercial banks. ^[49]
Regional growth options
- Potential entry into Malaysia via Alliance Bank, deeper penetration in Greater China, and AI‑enabled cost efficiencies all create multi‑year growth levers. ^[50]

10.2 Main risks

Margin compression
- Falling global and domestic interest rates are likely to squeeze NIMs further in 2026, and management has already guided for slightly lower profits despite stable income. ^[51]
Technology and regulatory overhang
- The 1.8x operational‑risk capital multiplier and repeated outages create a persistent “tech risk discount” that may cap valuation multiples until DBS proves sustained reliability. ^[52]
Execution risk in expansion and AI roll‑out
- Integrating new markets (like a possible Alliance Bank stake) while rolling out AI and slimming workforce layers could bring integration, cultural and cyber‑risk challenges. ^[53]
Macro and credit risk
- Exposure to regional property markets and corporate lending means that sharper‑than‑expected downturns in China or ASEAN could raise credit costs and dent earnings. ^[54]

11. What This Means for Investors

Putting it together:

At S$54.25, DBS offers:
- A current yield around 5.5%, rising to ~6% based on 2026 dividend guidance. ^[55]
- Consensus price upside of roughly 10–12% over 12 months. ^[56]
Combined, that suggests potential for low‑ to mid‑teens total returns if earnings and valuations evolve broadly in line with expectations – but with no guarantee, especially given rate and tech risks.

For income‑oriented investors, DBS stands out as a high‑yield, systemically important bank with world‑class credit ratings, underpinned by a very strong domestic franchise and growing regional reach.

For growth or more cautious investors, the questions are:

How long will MAS keep the extra capital buffer in place?
Will recurring outages finally be stamped out?
Can DBS sustain mid‑teens ROE as rates normalise and competition intensifies?

Ultimately, DBS today looks less like a contrarian bargain and more like a quality compounder priced for solid, but not explosive, returns, where execution on technology resilience and regional expansion will determine whether the stock can justify – or exceed – current optimistic forecasts.

Note: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own objectives, risk tolerance and, if needed, consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.