NEW YORK, December 29, 2025, 12:07 ET
- Covered California says early new enrollments for 2026 coverage are running about 30% below last year
- Shoppers are shifting toward lower-premium plans that come with higher deductibles as federal tax credits near expiry
- Consumers must enroll by Dec. 31 for coverage starting Jan. 1; open enrollment runs through Jan. 31
New enrollments on Covered California, California’s Affordable Care Act marketplace, are running about 30% below last year as shoppers weigh higher deductibles and the looming end of enhanced federal tax credits, the exchange’s executive director said.
The slowdown matters now because the Dec. 31 deadline for coverage starting Jan. 1 is days away, and the enhanced subsidies are set to expire at year-end unless Congress acts.
Congress adjourned for its holiday break without extending the credits, leaving consumers to compare plans under higher sticker prices and uncertainty over what they will pay in 2026.
Covered California executive director Jessica Altman said 123,461 Californians had signed up for 2026 coverage as of Dec. 20, a 30% decline from the same point last year.
“The most common version of that is someone who is choosing a plan that has a lower premium but a higher deductible,” Altman said in an interview with the Central Valley Journalism Collaborative. The Modesto Focus
A deductible is the amount a policyholder must pay out of pocket before insurance begins covering most services. Lower monthly premiums often come with higher deductibles and other “cost sharing,” such as co-payments.
The Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, already provides premium tax credits for households up to 400% of the federal poverty level, and Congress expanded the subsidies in 2021 to reach higher-income households and cap premium payments at 8.5% of income.
Altman said California residents currently pay about $150 a month on average for coverage through the exchange and that figure is expected to double to about $300 a month if the enhanced credits expire, though costs vary by income.
In Santa Barbara County, 20,220 of 22,160 people enrolled through Covered California receive help paying premiums, Altman said, underscoring how widely the subsidies are used.
Altman said she is concerned some people will decide they cannot afford coverage and go uninsured if the enhanced credits lapse. She said that can lead people to skip preventive care and may add strain to providers over time.
Open enrollment for Covered California runs through Jan. 31, and people who enroll by Dec. 31 can have coverage start Jan. 1; those who enroll in January can start coverage Feb. 1.
Covered California says it shares an application with Medi-Cal, California’s Medicaid program for low-income residents, and it directs shoppers to its “shop and compare” tool and call center for help as deadlines near, with extended call-center hours listed for Dec. 30 and Dec. 31. Covered California+1
