Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) heads into a pivotal week for investors with its stock trading around $475, a fresh dividend declaration, cautious 2026 earnings guidance and several large institutional moves hitting the tape on December 7, 2025. As of the close on Friday, December 5, 2025, DE shares finished at $475.11, about 11% below their 52‑week high of $533.78 set in May, even as analyst 12‑month price targets cluster in the low‑$520s – roughly 10% upside from current levels. [1]
This article summarizes the latest news, forecasts and analyses on DE stock as of December 7, 2025, and what they may mean for shareholders and prospective investors. It is for information only and is not investment advice.
DE stock today: price and valuation snapshot
Deere’s recent trading has been choppy but not catastrophic:
- Latest close: $475.11 on December 5, 2025, down 1.64% on the day. [2]
- 52‑week range: roughly $403 to $534, putting the current price about 11% below the 52‑week high. [3]
- Market value and multiples: Deere’s market cap sits around $128 billion, with a trailing price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio near 25–26 and a price‑to‑earnings‑growth (PEG) ratio around 1.7. [4]
- Balance sheet: Quick ratio ~2.0, current ratio ~2.2 and debt‑to‑equity around 1.7 reflect a capital‑intensive business with solid liquidity but meaningful leverage, typical for an equipment manufacturer with a large finance arm. [5]
On Friday, Deere underperformed peers like Caterpillar, which finished higher on the day, even as the broader S&P 500 eked out a gain. [6]
Q4 2025: strong sales, weaker profit
Deere reported results for its fiscal fourth quarter (ended November 2, 2025) and full‑year 2025 on November 26. [7]
Headline numbers
- Q4 net income:$1.065 billion, down from $1.245 billion a year earlier.
- Q4 earnings per share (EPS):$3.93, versus $4.55 last year. [8]
- Q4 revenue: roughly $12.3–12.4 billion, up about 11% year over year, driven by stronger equipment sales. [9]
For the full fiscal year 2025:
- Net income:$5.027 billion, down from $7.1 billion in 2024 – a drop of about 29%. [10]
- EPS:$18.50 vs. $25.62 the prior year. [11]
- Revenue: about $45.7 billion, down low‑double digits year over year as higher costs, tariffs and a softer farm economy weighed on demand. [12]
Different data providers disagree slightly on whether the $3.93 Q4 EPS was a tiny beat or a tiny miss versus consensus estimates – some show it just below expectations, others as a modest beat – but there is broad agreement that revenue was clearly ahead of forecasts. [13]
Segment performance: large ag vs. construction
Deere’s businesses are moving in different directions: [14]
- Production & Precision Agriculture (large tractors, combines, high‑end farm machinery)
- Q4 sales up around 10% to roughly $4.7 billion, but facing margin pressure from tariffs and discounting.
- Small Agriculture & Turf
- Q4 sales up about 7% to roughly $2.5 billion, helped by smaller equipment and turf products.
- Construction & Forestry
- The standout: Q4 sales surged around 27% to roughly $3.4 billion, reflecting solid demand in infrastructure and construction markets.
In short, Deere finished a “challenging 2025” on a high note for sales, but with compressed profitability thanks to higher production costs and trade‑related headwinds. [15]
2026 guidance: management calls the bottom of the ag cycle
The real market mover was not the backward‑looking numbers, but Deere’s outlook for fiscal 2026.
Management now expects:
- Fiscal 2026 net income:$4.0–4.75 billion, below Wall Street expectations in the low‑$5 billion range. [16]
- A $600 million pre‑tax tariff hit in 2025 and ongoing pressure from trade policy and input costs. [17]
- For the U.S. and Canada, sales of large agriculture equipment (big tractors, combines, etc.) are expected to fall roughly 15–20% in 2026, while construction and forestry is projected to be flat to up around 5%. [18]
CEO John May has repeatedly said the company believes 2026 will mark the bottom of the large‑agriculture cycle, with farmers still under pressure from lower crop prices, higher operating costs and expensive financing, all of which encourage them to stretch existing equipment or buy used rather than new. [19]
Analyst consensus reflects that view. Forecast data compiled by StockAnalysis shows: [20]
- Revenue expected to decline again in fiscal 2026 (to about $41.6 billion), then rebound in 2027 (back toward $45.5 billion).
- EPS projected to dip slightly from $18.50 (FY25 actual) to about $18.21 in 2026, then jump to roughly $24.24 in 2027.
In other words, Wall Street is modeling a trough year in 2026, followed by a recovery in both sales and earnings as the ag cycle turns and Deere’s technology investments (automation, precision agriculture, autonomy) begin to pay off more visibly. [21]
Dividend and capital return: steady income, room to grow
On December 3, 2025, Deere’s board declared a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share, payable February 9, 2026 to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2025. [22]
At the current share price, that works out to:
- An annualized dividend of $6.48 per share.
- A forward dividend yield of roughly 1.3–1.4%. [23]
Deere’s payout ratio sits around one‑third of earnings, based on recent estimates, indicating that the company continues to prioritize reinvestment and balance sheet strength while still returning cash to shareholders. MarketBeat notes that Deere has raised its dividend annually for the last several years, though increases have been modest. [24]
On the balance sheet side, the company’s current and quick ratios above 2 and long record of accessing capital markets give it flexibility to manage through a cyclical downturn while continuing share repurchases and strategic investments. [25]
Fresh December 7th news: big funds shuffle their DE positions
The headline developments dated December 7, 2025 concern institutional ownership — which matters because large funds often help set the tone for medium‑term stock performance.
Three separate 13F‑related updates from MarketBeat highlight moves by major investors: [26]
- California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS)
- Increased its DE position by 1.7% in Q2, adding 14,053 shares.
- Now holds 831,301 shares, roughly 0.31% of the company, valued at about $422.7 million at the time of the filing. [27]
- Bollard Group LLC
- Boosted its stake by 4.5%, buying 2,607 shares in Q2.
- Holds 60,448 shares, worth roughly $30.7 million, making DE its 19th‑largest position at about 0.7% of its portfolio. [28]
- Dnca Finance
- Moved the other way, cutting its DE holdings by 27% (selling 17,370 shares) in Q2.
- Still owns 46,980 shares, worth around $23.9 million, and DE remains its 16th‑largest position at about 1.8% of the portfolio. [29]
Across these filings, MarketBeat estimates that about 68–69% of Deere’s shares are held by institutional investors, including heavyweights such as Vanguard, Price T Rowe, Geode, Norges Bank and Fisher Asset Management. [30]
Net‑net, the December 7th updates suggest continued institutional interest, with some long‑term funds adding to positions while others rebalance after a strong multiyear run.
Governance update: Cargill’s CEO joins the board
Another important corporate development this week is at the board level.
On December 4, 2025, Deere announced that Brian Sikes, chair and CEO of agribusiness giant Cargill, has joined its board of directors. His arrival expands Deere’s board to 11 members, 10 of whom are independent, non‑employee directors. [31]
Sikes brings more than three decades of experience across Cargill’s protein, food ingredients and ag‑supply‑chain businesses, and will serve on Deere’s compensation and corporate governance committees. Deere also disclosed that Raj Kalathur will retire as President of John Deere Financial and CIO effective January 31, 2026, marking a notable change in financial and technology leadership. [32]
For DE shareholders, this mix of fresh ag‑industry expertise and executive turnover is worth watching as the company refines its long‑term “smart industrial” strategy centered on autonomy, connectivity and precision agriculture. [33]
Near‑term catalyst: Investor Day on December 8
Deere will host an Investor Day on Monday, December 8, 2025, starting at 10:30 a.m. ET, with a live webcast and presentation materials available through the company’s investor relations site. [34]
Management is expected to:
- Elaborate on its 2026 earnings guidance and how it sees the bottom of the ag cycle.
- Provide more detail on the smart industrial strategy, including automation, AI‑driven decision tools and subscription‑based services. [35]
- Discuss long‑term targets for margins, capital allocation and growth in higher‑margin businesses like precision ag and digital services.
Given the cautious profit outlook, this Investor Day could be an important sentiment reset for DE stock, either reassuring investors that 2026 is a manageable trough, or deepening concerns if guidance looks too optimistic.
Wall Street view: “Moderate Buy” with roughly 10% upside
Across research providers, the tone on DE remains constructive but not euphoric.
Ratings and price targets
MarketBeat’s latest summary (December 5, 2025) shows: [36]
- 26 analysts covering Deere.
- Overall rating: “Moderate Buy”.
- 1 Sell
- 9 Hold
- 15 Buy
- 1 Strong Buy
- Average 12‑month price target:$518.95.
StockAnalysis compiles a slightly different set of 18 analysts and comes to a similar conclusion: [37]
- Consensus rating: “Buy”.
- Average target:$526.06, implying about 10–11% upside from $475.
- Target range:
- Low: $458 (Evercore ISI, “In Line”).
- High: $612 (Truist Securities, “Strong Buy”).
Recent moves include:
- Truist Securities raising its target to $612 and maintaining a Strong Buy stance.
- RBC Capital trimming its target slightly to $541 but reiterating an Outperform rating, arguing that Deere is well positioned for a fiscal 2026 inflection despite tariff pressures.
- Oppenheimer lifting its target to $531 with an Outperform rating. [38]
Taken together, analysts broadly agree that:
- Near‑term earnings will be under pressure as large‑ag demand weakens.
- Construction, forestry and precision‑ag technology provide offsets and longer‑term growth.
- At around 25–26x trailing EPS, DE is not “cheap” in absolute terms, but its valuation is viewed as reasonable if management can deliver on 2027‑style earnings in the mid‑$20s per share. [39]
Macro backdrop: why heavy equipment is under pressure
Deere’s cautious guidance reflects broader stress across the farm‑equipment industry.
- Farm incomes and crop prices: Lower crop prices and high input costs are squeezing farmer cash flow, leaving many producers focused on servicing debt and rent rather than upgrading machinery. [40]
- Tariffs and trade policy: Expanded steel and aluminum tariffs in 2025 are adding to manufacturers’ cost base. Deere itself expects a $600 million pre‑tax tariff impact, while competitor CNH Industrial has also trimmed its own outlook in response to weak demand and higher costs. [41]
- Higher interest rates: Financing big‑ticket equipment purchases has become more expensive, encouraging farmers to stretch the life of existing machines or buy used, a pattern visible in commentary from both Deere and its peers. [42]
Against that backdrop, Deere’s management has emphasized its “smart industrial” strategy, launched in 2020, which leans heavily on automation, data, and AI to boost customer productivity and keep margins structurally higher than in past cycles. [43]
Key risks investors should watch
For anyone following DE stock, the main risks over the next 12–24 months include:
- Deeper or longer‑lasting downturn in large ag
If crop prices stay depressed or financing remains tight, farmers may continue to delay equipment purchases beyond 2026, undermining the current “trough‑then‑rebound” narrative. - Tariff and policy uncertainty
An escalation of tariffs or new trade barriers on steel, aluminum or farm commodities could further compress margins and dampen demand in Deere’s core markets. [44] - Execution on technology and services
Deere is investing heavily in autonomous tractors, precision spraying and subscription‑style digital offerings. The payoff depends on customer adoption and Deere’s ability to capture recurring revenue without alienating its dealer and farmer base. [45] - Valuation risk
With the stock still trading at a mid‑20s earnings multiple during a cyc downturn, any disappointment around 2027‑style recovery EPS could lead to multiple compression even if earnings grow.
Bottom line: what the December 7th picture says about DE stock
As of December 7, 2025, the new information around DE stock can be summarized as follows:
- Fundamentals: Q4 2025 showed strong revenue and segment growth, especially in construction and forestry, but weaker profits due to tariffs and a sluggish farm economy. [46]
- Outlook: Management’s 2026 guidance openly acknowledges a cyclical low point ahead, with net income expected to fall and large‑ag equipment sales under pressure before conditions improve. [47]
- Capital return & governance: Deere continues to return cash via a $1.62 quarterly dividend, adds a high‑profile agriculture executive (Cargill’s Brian Sikes) to its board, and prepares to detail its next phase of strategy at the December 8 Investor Day. [48]
- Market view: Despite the near‑term headwinds, Wall Street’s stance is broadly constructive, with a Moderate Buy / Buy consensus and average price targets implying around 10% upside from Friday’s close. [49]
- Positioning: Institutional ownership remains high and, based on the latest 13F updates, key long‑term investors are still active in the name, with some adding and others trimming positions. [50]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketbeat.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.marketwatch.com, 7. www.deere.com, 8. www.deere.com, 9. www.manufacturingdive.com, 10. www.deere.com, 11. www.deere.com, 12. www.manufacturingdive.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.investopedia.com, 15. www.manufacturingdive.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.manufacturingdive.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.manufacturingdive.com, 22. www.prnewswire.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.marketbeat.com, 28. www.marketbeat.com, 29. www.marketbeat.com, 30. www.marketbeat.com, 31. www.prnewswire.com, 32. www.marketscreener.com, 33. www.manufacturingdive.com, 34. www.prnewswire.com, 35. www.manufacturingdive.com, 36. www.marketbeat.com, 37. stockanalysis.com, 38. www.investing.com, 39. stockanalysis.com, 40. farmpolicynews.illinois.edu, 41. www.reuters.com, 42. www.manufacturingdive.com, 43. www.manufacturingdive.com, 44. www.reuters.com, 45. www.manufacturingdive.com, 46. www.manufacturingdive.com, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. www.prnewswire.com, 49. www.marketbeat.com, 50. www.marketbeat.com
