Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) heads into Monday’s session with investors weighing a familiar mix of forces: the downcycle in big farm equipment, the latest tariff cost outlook, and a fresh set of long-range targets Deere laid out at its New York Stock Exchange investor day.
As of Friday’s close, Deere shares finished at $484.80, up about 1.9% on the day, giving the company a market value of roughly $131 billion.
Below is what matters most for DE stock before the US stock market opens on Monday, Dec. 15, 2025.
1) The near-term story: 2026 is “the bottom” for large ag, but the guidance is cautious
Deere’s most important near-term anchor remains the outlook it provided with fourth-quarter and full-year fiscal 2025 results.
In its earnings release, Deere reported:
- Q4 net income:$1.065 billion (EPS $3.93)
- FY2025 net income:$5.027 billion (EPS $18.50)
- FY2026 net income guide:$4.00 billion to $4.75 billion [1]
Management also explicitly framed the cycle: Deere’s CEO said the company believes 2026 will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle, while acknowledging ongoing margin pressure—especially from tariffs—and persistent challenges in large ag demand. [2]
Wall Street’s immediate push-pull is straightforward:
- Bull case: if 2026 is the trough, investors tend to price cyclicals off the recovery year(s) ahead.
- Bear case: the trough can last longer than expected if crop economics and trade uncertainty keep farmers cautious.
Reuters captured this tension on earnings day, noting Deere’s FY2026 profit outlook came in below analysts’ expectations (LSEG data cited by Reuters). [3]
2) Tariffs are not just headline risk—Deere quantified the hit
Tariff costs are a major swing factor for sentiment in industrials, and Deere has been unusually direct about the impact.
Reuters reported that Deere expects a pre-tax tariff hit of about $1.2 billion in fiscal 2026, versus nearly $600 million in 2025. [4]
Why this matters going into Monday:
- It reinforces that even if unit demand stabilizes, margin pressure can linger.
- It raises the bar for Deere’s cost actions and mix improvements to protect earnings in the trough.
It also connects directly to the policy backdrop that’s been moving the farm economy narrative in December.
3) Washington catalyst: Trump’s $12 billion farm aid package and “deregulation” talk
On Dec. 8, the White House put farmer economics back in the spotlight with a new relief package.
Reuters reported President Donald Trump announced a $12 billion aid package for farmers affected by trade disruptions, with $11 billion aimed at row crops and $1 billion for specialty crops, with disbursement targeted by late February. [5]
USDA’s press release similarly described $12 billion in one-time “bridge payments,” with up to $11 billion routed through a Farmer Bridge Assistance program for eligible row-crop producers. [6]
At the same event, Reuters also reported Trump said his administration would help tractor makers by removing some environmental rules affecting machinery, calling current restrictions “ridiculous.” [7]
How DE investors typically interpret this:
- Aid can help shore up balance sheets at the margin—especially for producers under stress—but it doesn’t automatically translate into a near-term surge in demand for high-dollar machines.
- Deregulatory signals can boost confidence for equipment affordability narratives, but markets will wait for specific rule changes and timing.
Reuters later reported farmers and farm groups welcomed the support but argued it would not fully offset losses tied to low prices and lost exports—an important nuance for equipment demand expectations. [8]
4) Investor Day: Deere’s 2030 targets are ambitious—and the market reaction has been mixed
Deere’s NYSE investor day (Dec. 8) is now a key reference point for longer-term DE valuation.
From the company’s official investor day transcript, Deere laid out a 2030 growth target:
- 10% net sales CAGR from 2025 to 2030 [9]
And management connected that to a numeric revenue bridge:
- Starting from $38.9 billion in 2025 equipment operations net sales, a 10% CAGR would imply around $63 billion by 2030. [10]
Deere also presented profitability/efficiency targets as part of the same 2030 framework:
- 20% Operating Return on Sales
- 45% Operating Return on Assets
- An illustrative mid-cycle EPS range of roughly $40 to $45 [11]
The “how” is as important as the targets. Deere emphasized expanding revenue streams less tied to the replacement cycle—pointing to software/SaaS, lifecycle services, and the comparatively steadier financial services contribution. [12]
Still, not every investor bought the timeline. Barron’s described skepticism after the event, noting the stock’s decline as markets focused on today’s weak ag environment even as Deere pitched long-term digital and AI-enabled growth. [13]
5) Deere’s “digital” scale: connected machines and engaged acres are central to the bull thesis
One of the most important valuation questions for Deere is whether it can evolve from a purely cyclical equipment story into a more “platform + recurring” story.
In its investor presentation, Deere highlighted the current footprint of its ecosystem:
- 1M+ connected machines
- ~500M engaged acres
- 147M highly engaged acres [14]
These metrics matter because they underpin:
- potential attach rates for precision ag features,
- monetization of data/software workflows,
- and increased parts/service pull-through.
For Monday, the market is likely to keep asking: How quickly do these engagement metrics translate into durable, high-margin revenue during a downcycle?
6) Dividend and shareholder returns: yield support, but not the core driver
Deere also heads into Monday with a fresh capital-return reminder.
A Deere announcement distributed via PR Newswire said the board declared a $1.62 quarterly dividend, payable Feb. 9, 2026 to shareholders of record Dec. 31, 2025. [15]
For many long-term holders, the dividend adds confidence, but for the stock’s day-to-day trade, DE tends to move more on:
- crop price and farm income expectations,
- tariff headlines and cost guidance,
- and confidence in the timing of the equipment cycle recovery.
7) Analyst forecasts: targets cluster in the low-$500s, but dispersion is wide
Heading into Dec. 15, Wall Street’s published targets show a familiar pattern for a high-quality cyclical: “generally constructive,” but with meaningful disagreement on timing.
Nasdaq’s aggregation of analyst targets listed an average around $525 with a low in the mid-$440s and a high above $640 (as of early December). [16]
Recent individual target changes have spanned a wide range:
- Jefferies moved its target to $475 with a Hold stance (reported via market news aggregations). [17]
- RBC Capital kept an Outperform rating while trimming its target to $541 (Yahoo Finance reporting). [18]
- Truist raised a target to $612 while maintaining a Buy rating (reported via market news aggregations). [19]
The takeaway for Monday isn’t any single price target—it’s that analysts are effectively debating the shape of the next cycle: how deep the trough gets in FY2026, and how quickly recovery emerges in FY2027 and beyond.
8) Legal/regulatory overhang: the FTC “right-to-repair” case is still in play
Investors who focus only on ag demand risk missing a separate, slower-moving issue: repair competition and antitrust scrutiny.
In January 2025, the FTC and state partners sued Deere, alleging restrictions that kept critical repair tools within authorized dealer channels and raised repair costs for farmers. [20]
In June 2025, Reuters reported a US judge ruled Deere must face the FTC’s antitrust lawsuit. [21]
This is unlikely to drive DE stock minute-by-minute before Monday’s open, but it remains a material medium-term risk because outcomes could affect:
- aftermarket economics,
- customer relationships and brand perception,
- and compliance/operating costs around tools, diagnostics, and software access.
9) What to watch specifically when the market opens Monday
If you’re tracking Deere stock into the opening bell, here are the practical catalysts most likely to matter on Dec. 15:
Tariff headlines and trade signals
- Any new developments involving US-China trade dynamics can quickly ripple into crop export expectations and farmer sentiment, while tariffs also affect Deere’s own cost structure. [22]
Follow-through details on farm aid
- USDA’s rollout mechanics—and how quickly payments hit farmers—could influence near-term confidence, even if it doesn’t immediately change equipment purchase decisions. [23]
Management’s “2026 trough” narrative
- Deere has told investors it sees FY2026 as the bottom of large ag. The market will be sensitive to any new data that supports—or contradicts—that call. [24]
Industry demand expectations baked into Deere’s own outlook
- Deere’s FY2026 industry view projected US/Canada large ag down 15% to 20%, with more stability in small ag & turf and construction categories. [25]
Whether investors keep rewarding the long-term “Smart Industrial” plan
- Deere’s 10% net sales CAGR target through 2030 is a bold stake in the ground. The near-term question is how much investors will pay today for a 2030 vision during a downcycle. [26]
Bottom line for Dec. 15: DE is trading the intersection of policy, tariffs, and cycle timing
Going into Monday’s open, Deere stock sits at the crossroads of:
- near-term pressure (tariff costs and soft large-ag demand),
- policy-driven crosscurrents (farm aid and regulatory rhetoric),
- and a renewed long-term pitch (2030 targets, digital scale, and a greater recurring-revenue mix). [27]
For traders, that often translates into sensitivity to headlines. For longer-term investors, it’s a debate about whether FY2026 truly represents the trough—and whether Deere’s post-cycle earnings power is structurally higher than prior cycles.
References
1. www.deere.com, 2. www.deere.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.usda.gov, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. s22.q4cdn.com, 10. s22.q4cdn.com, 11. s22.q4cdn.com, 12. s22.q4cdn.com, 13. www.barrons.com, 14. s22.q4cdn.com, 15. www.prnewswire.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. finance.yahoo.com, 19. www.investing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.usda.gov, 24. www.deere.com, 25. www.deere.com, 26. s22.q4cdn.com, 27. www.reuters.com
