Diageo plc Stock Hits 52‑Week Lows: What Belfast Strikes, Profit Warning and a New CEO Mean for DGE/DEO in December 2025

Diageo plc — owner of Guinness, Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Baileys and Don Julio — is ending 2025 with its share price near decade‑lows, a fresh labour dispute in Belfast, a sharply lower outlook, and a high‑profile incoming CEO tasked with turning the spirits giant around. As of 10 December 2025, investors are asking the classic question: is Diageo’s pain finally priced in, or is there more downside to come?

Diageo share price today: DGE in London, DEO in New York

On the London Stock Exchange, Diageo’s ordinary shares (ticker: DGE) are trading around 1,600p, at the bottom of their 52‑week range of roughly 1,602.5p–2,619.5p. Recent data show DGE closing at 1,602.5p on 9 December 2025, a new 52‑week low. ^[1]

At the start of the year, the stock was nearer 2,400p; multiple outlets now frame the move as a near 30% slide in 2025, and roughly 50–60% below the highs seen a few years ago. ^[2]

In New York, the U.S. ADR (DEO) has also broken down. On 9 December, MarketBeat reported that DEO:

Fell to a new 52‑week low of $86.08,
Last traded around $85.71,
Down about 2.2% on the day, after previously closing at $87.94. ^[3]

That puts Diageo’s U.S. listing more than a third below its 2023–2024 levels, and well under its 50‑day and 200‑day moving averages of $93.67 and $101.12 respectively. ^[4]

In short, both tickers — DGE in London and DEO in New York — are trading where long‑term holders tend to feel queasy and value hunters start sharpening their pencils.

Belfast strike returns as Unite pushes for higher pay

The most immediate headline on 10 December 2025 is renewed strike action at Diageo’s Belfast packaging site.

Unite the Union says around 90 workers have voted to resume a previously suspended eight‑day strike after rejecting an improved pay offer. The dispute centres on wage differentials: Belfast staff want higher pay to close the gap with colleagues at Diageo’s Runcorn site in England. ^[5]

Key points from the latest updates:

The strike covers workers at the Belfast packaging facility, not the main Guinness brewery at St James’s Gate in Dublin.
Action is scheduled across December, overlapping with the crucial Christmas trading period. ^[6]
A Diageo spokesperson has indicated the company does not expect disruptions to Guinness or Guinness 0.0 supply over Christmas, suggesting some operational flexibility and contingency stock. ^[7]

Financially, 90 workers at a single packaging site are unlikely to move the earnings needle by themselves. But the episode reinforces two themes that matter for investors:

Cost pressure – wage disputes add to broader margin headwinds from slower demand and promotional activity, especially in North America. ^[8]
Reputational risk – Diageo has long emphasised sustainability and “doing business the right way”; labour disputes sit awkwardly next to that messaging and can become ESG talking points. ^[9]

Growth investments continue: Guinness microbrewery and Mortlach launch

The bearish narrative around Diageo often overshadows the fact that it is still investing heavily in its brands and visitor experiences.

Guinness Open Gate Brewery London

On 10 December, Harpers reported that Diageo will open a new Guinness Open Gate Brewery in Covent Garden, central London on 11 December: ^[10]

£73m has been invested to transform Old Brewers Yard into a 54,000 sq ft microbrewery and visitor destination.
The site will feature a working brewery for limited‑edition beers, a visitor experience, two restaurants, a courtyard bar and two retail stores.
Diageo expects the venue to create up to 250 jobs and attract over half a million visitors in its first year.
It will also act as a southern hub for Diageo’s Learning for Life hospitality training programme.

This fits Diageo’s strategy of monetising brand heritage through high‑margin tourist experiences (think the Guinness Storehouse in Dublin), while deepening consumer engagement.

Mortlach “Neverbound” in Korea

Also on 10 December, Asia Business Daily covered Diageo Korea’s launch of Mortlach Neverbound, the first limited‑edition expression in its Mortlach single malt line for the Korean market. ^[11]

The whisky is matured first in refill ex‑American oak and finished in French oak casks air‑dried in Cognac.
Distribution will focus on department stores and hotels, with a pop‑up experience at Lotte Department Store Jamsil.
The launch leans into Mortlach’s ultra‑premium positioning, emphasising “pushing beyond boundaries” in flavour and craftsmanship.

Individually, these projects won’t transform Diageo’s P&L. Collectively, they underline that premiumisation and brand experiences remain core to the investment case, even as near‑term spirits demand weakens in key markets.

Profit warning and fiscal 2026 outlook: flat sales, modest profit growth

The main driver of 2025’s share price slide was Diageo’s profit warning and downgraded outlook in early November.

Q1 FY26 trading statement

In its Q1 FY26 trading statement on 6 November, Diageo reported: ^[12]

Reported net sales down 2.2% to $4.9bn for the quarter,
Organic net sales flat,
Organic volume up 2.9%, but
Price/mix down 2.8%, mainly due to weaker Chinese white spirits.

Management flagged:

Solid organic growth in Europe, Latin America and Africa,
Offset by weakness in Chinese white spirits and a softer U.S. consumer environment, particularly in spirits, which are seeing lower consumption and down‑trading. ^[13]

The company cut its fiscal 2026 guidance:

Organic net sales: now expected to be flat to slightly down, versus earlier expectations of flat.
Organic operating profit: still expected to grow, but only low‑ to mid‑single‑digit, helped by cost savings. ^[14]
Free cash flow (FCF): management reiterated a target of about $3bn in FY26, up from $2.7bn in FY25, supported by the “Accelerate” cost‑saving programme targeting $625m over three years. ^[15]
Tariffs: guidance includes an annualised $200m hit from U.S. tariffs on imports from the UK and EU, which Diageo expects to mitigate roughly half through pricing and efficiencies. ^[16]

City reporting highlighted that this implied sales contraction versus 2025, rather than the previously expected flat year, and that the update came after a period in which shares had already fallen by nearly a third. ^[17]

For investors, the message was clear: the growth engine has stalled, at least temporarily, while cost‑cutting and portfolio reshaping play catch‑up.

Leadership reset: ‘Drastic Dave’ Lewis steps in as CEO

Against this backdrop, Diageo has opted for a heavyweight external hire.

On 10 November 2025, Diageo announced that Sir Dave Lewis, former Tesco CEO and long‑time Unilever executive, will become Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, effective 1 January 2026. ^[18]

Key points from coverage by Diageo, Reuters and the Financial Times: ^[19]

Lewis earned the nickname “Drastic Dave” for aggressive cost‑cutting and turnaround work at Tesco, where he restored profitability and repaired the balance sheet after an accounting scandal.
He brings nearly three decades of consumer‑goods experience from Unilever, plus board roles at PepsiCo and Haleon (from which he will step down by year‑end).
He replaces interim CEO and CFO Nik Jhangiani, who stepped in after the abrupt July departure of CEO Debra Crew; Jhangiani will return to the CFO role.
The appointment followed a months‑long CEO search, and was greeted positively by investors — Diageo’s shares jumped about 7% on the announcement, their biggest single‑day gain since 2020. ^[20]

The board’s mandate for Lewis is to revive growth, simplify the portfolio, and restore investor confidence after multiple profit warnings and strategic missteps.

What analysts are saying: downgrades, targets and AI scores

UBS downgrade: from Buy to Neutral

On 4 December, UBS downgraded Diageo from Buy to Neutral and cut its price target on the London shares from £22.50 to £18.50. ^[21]

UBS’s concerns, as summarised by Investing.com and AInvest: ^[22]

U.S. spirits exposure (~30% of FY25 sales) is under significant pressure.
The tequila category has swung from growth engine to drag, with Diageo losing share in a more promotional, competitive market.
UBS now forecasts about a 3.5% volume decline in the U.S. spirits industry in 2026.
The broker cut FY26–FY28 EPS estimates by 2–3% and highlighted valuation concerns after a 32% underperformance in 2025.

At the same time, UBS flagged potential “self‑help” catalysts, including:

Asset disposals (e.g., certain beer or regional businesses),
A possible Guinness spin‑off or IPO,
Execution of the cost‑saving programme under Dave Lewis’s leadership. ^[23]

Broader broker and quant views

Other analyst and quantitative takes include:

Bernstein has trimmed its Diageo target from £25.50 to £24.20, but continues to rate the stock Outperform, citing strong brands but weaker U.S. and China demand. ^[24]
For DGE in London, MarketBeat data show a “Moderate Buy” consensus, with eight analysts split roughly evenly between Buy and Hold, and a consensus target of about 2,198.75p — roughly high‑30s percent upside from around 1,600p. ^[25]
For DEO in New York, MarketBeat reports a more cautious “Reduce” rating, with a $119 average price target, implying close to 40% upside from the mid‑$80s, but accompanied by several Hold and Sell recommendations. ^[26]
AI‑driven platform Danelfin assigns DGE an AI Score of 3/10 (Sell), estimating only a 38.6% probability of beating the STOXX 600 over the next three months, below the average European stock. ^[27]

In other words, long‑term valuation models look supportive, but near‑term sentiment and quant models remain cautious.

Earnings, revenue and dividend forecasts to 2026–2028

Earnings and revenue

For the U.S. ADR DEO, consensus forecasts compiled by StockAnalysis show: ^[28]

FY25 revenue around $20.25bn,
Rising to $20.81bn in FY26 and $21.53bn in FY27 — low single‑digit annual growth.
EPS dipping to $1.06 in FY25 (reflecting weak trading and one‑offs), then rebounding to $1.69 in FY26 and $1.79 in FY27 — nearly 60% EPS growth in FY26, then mid‑single‑digit thereafter.

Simply Wall St’s model for DGE paints a similar picture:

Earnings forecast to grow about 12.4% per year,
Revenue about 2.7% per year,
EPS about 12.8% per year,
Return on equity expected to reach roughly 27% within three years. ^[29]

These forecasts assume:

No deep recession in core markets,
Successful execution of the $625m cost‑saving plan,
Some recovery in U.S. and Chinese demand from current weak levels. ^[30]

WallStreetZen, looking at longer‑term earnings trends, notes that Diageo’s forecast annual earnings growth rate for 2026–2028 is weaker than the broader U.S. market and even its own beverages peer group, underlining that this is not a high‑growth story at today’s price. ^[31]

Dividend, yield and payout

Diageo remains a dividend stock at heart.

The company recently confirmed the sterling equivalent of its FY25 final dividend at 47.91p per share, payable to ordinary shareholders, following earlier interim payments. ^[32]
Various data providers put DGE’s trailing dividend yield in the 4–5% range at current share prices, up from roughly 3% in prior years, thanks largely to the share price decline. ^[33]
TradingView notes that Diageo’s dividend payout ratio climbed close to 98% of trailing earnings in 2025, versus about 58% previously — a sign that earnings have temporarily come under pressure relative to the dividend. ^[34]

For income‑oriented investors, that combination — elevated yield plus stretched payout ratio — is a classic tension: attractive cash returns today, but with less room for error if trading deteriorates further.

Bull case: global brands, premiumisation and a proven turnaround CEO

Despite the gloomy share price, several pieces of recent analysis lean constructively on Diageo’s long‑term prospects.

A December article on The Motley Fool UK argues that, with the share price down about 57% from prior highs, Diageo could be a “generational bargain” if earnings stabilise and the valuation mean‑reverts. ^[35]
Simply Wall St suggests the stock is materially undervalued (around 20%+) relative to its discounted cash‑flow estimate, based on the growth and ROE forecasts noted above. ^[36]

The bullish thesis rests on a few pillars:

Irreplaceable brands
Diageo owns a portfolio that would be nearly impossible to recreate: Guinness, Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Baileys, Tanqueray, Don Julio, Casamigos, among others, spanning more than 200 brands in 180 countries. ^[37]
Premiumisation still intact (outside U.S. and China)
While U.S. spirits and Chinese white spirits are struggling, Diageo is still seeing solid growth in Europe, Latin America and Africa, particularly in premium segments. ^[38]
Self‑help levers
- The Accelerate programme targets substantial cost savings and efficiency gains. ^[39]
- The company is actively exploring portfolio rationalisation, including disposals in Africa and certain beer businesses. ^[40]
- A future Guinness spin‑off remains speculative, but is widely discussed as a potential value‑unlocking option. ^[41]
“Drastic Dave” factor
Investors who remember Tesco’s turnaround under Dave Lewis see obvious parallels: a beloved consumer brand with global reach, but sagging growth, complex operations and cost bloat. Reuters and the FT both emphasise that Lewis has built a reputation for rapid strategic resets and disciplined execution, and the market’s initial 7% relief rally reflects those expectations. ^[42]

If Diageo can normalise U.S. spirits trends, stop the slide in tequila, and execute on cost savings, the combination of a 4–5% dividend yield and high‑20s ROE potential could look compelling at a mid‑teens earnings multiple. ^[43]

Bear case: structural demand shifts, U.S. tequila hangover and high leverage

Recent bearish analysis, including UBS and AInvest’s December commentary, lays out the risk that this is not just a cyclical wobble. ^[44]

Key concerns:

U.S. spirits slowdown may be structural
- Tequila, once Diageo’s star category, has turned negative, with increased competition and promotional pressure eroding margins. ^[45]
- Consumers under cost‑of‑living strain are trading down to cheaper brands and smaller formats, a trend that may persist if higher interest rates and tariffs bite. ^[46]
China and tariffs
- Weak Chinese white spirits demand knocked about 2.5 percentage points off group net sales in Q1 alone. ^[47]
- U.S. tariffs on UK and EU spirits add roughly $200m per year to costs, only half mitigated, and remain a policy risk. ^[48]
Debt and payout pressure
- Diageo carries substantial net debt, with management targeting a 2.5–3.0x leverage ratio by FY28 through FCF and selective disposals. ^[49]
- The dividend payout ratio approaching 100% of depressed earnings leaves limited headroom if trading worsens or if rates stay high. ^[50]
Near‑term underperformance risk
- Quant models (Danelfin) and some broker screens flag a higher‑than‑average risk of underperforming the market over the next three months. ^[51]
- On the U.S. listing, MarketBeat’s “Reduce” rating and a mix of Buy/Hold/Sell calls underscore that consensus is far from uniformly bullish despite headline upside to targets. ^[52]

Put bluntly, the bear case says: this might be a classic value trap if premium spirits demand in the U.S. and China is structurally weaker than assumed, and if Diageo struggles to raise prices or cut enough cost to offset that.

So, is Diageo stock a buy at these levels?

From an investor’s perspective as of 10 December 2025, Diageo looks like a high‑quality but challenged franchise with:

Share prices at multi‑year lows in both London and New York,
A meaningful dividend yield in the mid‑single digits,
Modest revenue growth and healthier earnings growth forecast if cost savings land,
A credible turnaround CEO incoming, but no quick fix to structural headwinds. ^[53]

Whether that’s attractive depends heavily on your time horizon and risk tolerance:

Short‑term traders face headline risk from U.S. data, Chinese demand, union negotiations in Belfast and any further guidance changes.
Long‑term, income‑oriented investors may see today’s prices as an opportunity to lock in a higher yield — provided they are comfortable with the possibility of a dividend rebasing if earnings don’t recover as expected.
Deep‑value and turnaround investors will be watching Dave Lewis’s first 12–18 months closely: any early indication of a credible portfolio strategy, cost discipline and improvement in North American trends could catalyse a re‑rating.