Ticker: NYSE: DIS
Date: December 9, 2025
The Walt Disney Company’s stock is trading in a tight range just above key support as Wall Street digests mixed fiscal 2025 results, a looming YouTube TV dispute and fresh analyst forecasts that still point to double‑digit earnings growth over the next few years.
Disney stock price and valuation today
As of late trading on December 9, 2025, Disney shares change hands at about $107 per share, down roughly 0.5% on the day, after opening near $107.50 and trading between about $106.6 and $107.9.
Key valuation and balance‑sheet metrics from recent filings and analyst summaries: [1]
- Market cap: ≈ $192 billion
- Trailing EPS: ≈ $6.86
- Trailing P/E: ~15.7x
- Forward P/E: ~19–20x based on next‑year EPS estimates
- PEG ratio: ≈ 1.46
- Beta: ~1.5 (above‑market volatility)
- Debt‑to‑equity: ~0.31
- Liquidity: quick ratio ~0.65, current ratio ~0.71
- 52‑week range: roughly $80 to $125
Technically, Trefis notes that Disney is trading inside a support zone between about $99.6 and $110.1, an area that has historically preceded sizeable rallies; over the last decade, bounces from this band produced an average peak gain of ~34%. [2]
Fresh December 9 headlines shaping the Disney stock story
1. Institutions shuffle positions: Natixis buys, Ossiam sells
Two notable 13F‑related headlines hit on December 9: [3]
- Natixis increases its stake
- Boosted Disney holdings by 10% to 160,849 shares, worth roughly $19.9 million.
- Contributes to a high institutional ownership share of about 65.7%.
- The MarketBeat summary tied this to a “Moderate Buy” consensus on the stock: 18 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell, with an average 12‑month price target of $134.41.
- Ossiam exits most of its position
- Sold 893,341 Disney shares, trimming its stake by 95.3%.
- Now holds about 44,082 shares worth roughly $5.5 million.
Taken together, these moves underline a common theme in big‑cap media stocks right now: institutions are not abandoning Disney en masse, but they are actively rebalancing exposure as the company transitions away from legacy TV.
2. Amazon vs. Disney: a rough comparison for the Magic Kingdom
A widely shared 24/7 Wall St. analysis published December 9 contrasts Disney’s latest numbers with Amazon’s, bluntly arguing that Disney is struggling to keep up with a platform‑style tech model. [4]
Key comparisons from that piece and Disney’s own filings:
- Top line:
- Amazon’s recent quarter: +13.4% revenue growth.
- Disney’s fiscal Q4 2025: revenue down ~0.5% year‑over‑year to about $22.5 billion.
- Segment performance:
- Disney Direct‑to‑Consumer (streaming) revenue: up ~8%, helped by Disney+ and Hulu.
- Entertainment segment operating income: down about 35%, as weaker film and TV content sales offset streaming gains.
- Experiences (parks, resorts, cruises): operating income up 13% in Q4, continuing to be the main profit engine. [5]
- Capital allocation and ROE:
- Amazon spent $35.1 billion on capex in one recent quarter and plans $75+ billion for AI infrastructure in 2025.
- Disney’s capex was about $2.47 billion, with roughly $24 billion committed to content across entertainment and sports. [6]
- Reported return on equity is around 12% for Disney versus 24%+ for Amazon, according to 24/7 Wall St., highlighting a more capital‑intensive, cyclical profile for Disney. [7]
The takeaway: compared with a cloud‑and‑AI platform like Amazon, Disney looks slower‑growing and more dependent on hit‑driven, capital‑heavy businesses. That doesn’t doom the stock, but it helps explain why the market is demanding visible EPS growth before granting a premium multiple.
3. Governance, safety and “headline risk”
Not all December 9 stories are strictly financial, but they matter for brand and regulatory risk, which investors watch closely.
- Disabled shareholder dispute over park accessibility
A DisneyDining report describes how a disabled shareholder’s proposal for an independent review of Disney’s Disability Access Service (DAS) changes was blocked under a recent SEC rule tweak. The piece argues the change shifts power toward corporations and frames Disney as resisting scrutiny over disability policies, against a backdrop of an ongoing class‑action lawsuit alleging discrimination at Disneyland. [8] - Vehicle accident near EPCOT
Inside the Magic reports a vehicle crash in the EPCOT resort area on the morning of December 9, with at least one injury and temporary roadblocks near E. Buena Vista Drive and Epcot Resorts Boulevard. [9] - Netflix once considered buying Disney
A WDW News Today story, citing Bloomberg, notes that before its blockbuster Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, Netflix also explored the idea of buying Disney, Fox, and Electronic Arts, but potential deals reportedly died over valuation and stock‑price concerns. [10]
These issues are unlikely to drive near‑term earnings, but they can color investor sentiment, influence regulatory discussions, and feed into long‑term perceptions of Disney’s governance and safety culture.
Disney after Q4 2025: progress and growing pains
Disney reported fiscal Q4 2025 and full‑year results on November 13. The headline: profitability is improving faster than revenue.
Top‑level numbers
From Disney’s official release and the earnings call: [11]
- Q4 revenue: ≈ $22.5 billion, essentially flat year‑on‑year and slightly below Wall Street expectations (consensus around $22.7–$22.8 billion).
- Full‑year revenue: ≈ $94.4 billion, up about 3% vs. fiscal 2024.
- Q4 diluted EPS (GAAP):$0.73, up sharply from $0.25 a year earlier.
- Q4 adjusted EPS:$1.11, down ~3% vs. last year but ahead of consensus (~$1.03–$1.05).
- Full‑year adjusted EPS: about $5.93, up 19% year‑on‑year.
- Total segment operating income (Q4):$3.48 billion, down 5%; but for the full year, up 12% to $17.6 billion.
Segment performance: Experiences up, linear TV down
Revenue by segment in Q4 2025: [12]
- Entertainment: ~$10.2B (≈45% of total), down ~6% vs. prior year.
- Sports (ESPN and related): ~$4.0B (≈18%), roughly flat to slightly up.
- Experiences (parks, resorts, cruises): ~$8.8B (≈39%), up ~6%.
Operating income:
- Entertainment: fell from $1.07B to ~$0.69B (about ‑35%).
- Sports: slipped modestly in the quarter, but full‑year operating income rose ~20%.
- Experiences: climbed from $1.66B to ~$1.88B (+13% in Q4 and +8% for the full year). [13]
On the streaming side, the direct‑to‑consumer business (Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+) delivered: [14]
- Operating income around $1.3B in Q4, up roughly 39% year‑over‑year.
- Revenue growth of ~8% to about $6.25B.
- Combined Disney+ and Hulu subscribers around 196 million, with Disney+ at roughly 132 million.
At the same time:
- Domestic linear networks revenue fell about 16%, with operating income down over 20%, reflecting cord‑cutting and weaker ad demand.
- ESPN remains profitable but under pressure from rising sports rights costs and the broader decline of traditional TV. [15]
The YouTube TV dispute
Reuters reported that Disney is preparing for a potentially lengthy carriage dispute with YouTube TV, which has already pulled Disney’s networks from its lineup. Management acknowledged the risk in their outlook and reiterated that their forecasts assume some level of prolonged disruption. [16]
Investors worried that:
- The dispute could accelerate linear TV subscriber and ad revenue declines.
- Disney might have to concede on pricing to restore carriage, which would pressure margins.
This partly explains why Disney’s shares fell around 8% immediately after the earnings release, despite the EPS beat and stronger streaming results. [17]
Guidance: double‑digit EPS growth and higher cash returns
On the earnings call, CEO Bob Iger and CFO Hugh Johnston emphasized a pivot from “fixing” to “growing” the business: [18]
- Disney expects double‑digit adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2026, building on 19% growth in 2025.
- Over the last three fiscal years, adjusted EPS has compounded at about 19% annually.
- Management plans to double share repurchases to about $7 billion in 2026, up from $3.5 billion in 2025.
- The annual cash dividend has been raised about 50% to $1.50 per share, implying a yield in the low‑single digits at current prices.
Simply Wall St. notes that these moves—streaming profitability, a $7B buyback, higher dividend, and consolidation of Disney+ and Hulu into a single app—are reshaping Disney’s “investment narrative” toward a more balanced mix of growth and shareholder returns. [19]
Analyst ratings and price targets: upside remains the base case
Despite Disney’s structural challenges, most Wall Street research teams remain constructive on the stock.
Consensus ratings
Across major aggregators: [20]
- MarketBeat:
- Rating: “Moderate Buy”.
- Breakdown: 18 Buy, 8 Hold, 1 Sell.
- Trailing EPS: ~$6.86; P/E ~15.7x.
- StockAnalysis.com:
- 16 analysts; overall stance: “Strong Buy.”
- Emphasis on streaming profitability and parks strength as key drivers.
- ValueInvesting.io:
- 39 analysts; consensus recommendation: Buy.
- Morningstar (qualitative view):
- Assigns Disney a 3‑star rating and sees shares as roughly fairly valued versus a long‑term fair value estimate around $120 per share—modestly above the current price but not a deep bargain in their view.
Price targets: clustered around the mid‑$130s
Most 12‑month price targets sit in a relatively tight band above the current price: [21]
- MarketBeat target (27 analysts):
- Average:$134.41
- Range:$110 – $152
- Implied upside vs. roughly $107 today: ~25%.
- StockAnalysis.com (16 analysts):
- Average:$135.06
- Median:$140
- Range:$110 – $152
- Implied upside: ~26%.
- ValueInvesting.io (39 analysts):
- Average target:$135.63
- Median:$137.70
- Range: about $78 – $168
- Implied upside from current levels: ~29%.
Simply Wall St.’s intrinsic value model pegs fair value around $133, roughly 26% above the current share price, and notes that community estimates cluster between $105.90 and $133.22 per share. [22]
Trefis similarly sees value near $134 versus a market price just above $108 when its December 3 note was published, again implying mid‑20% upside if their assumptions play out. [23]
Earnings forecasts: steady, but not explosive, growth
Street estimates compiled by MarketBeat, MarketWatch/Barron’s and Zacks point to high‑single to low double‑digit earnings growth: [24]
- Next fiscal year EPS is generally expected to rise from about $5.5 to $6.1–$6.6, roughly 10–12% growth.
- By 2027–2028, consensus EPS estimates cluster around the mid‑$7s to low‑$8s range.
- One Zacks‑linked summary pegs a future EPS estimate around $7.38, about 12% above what Disney is expected to earn in the prior year.
In other words, analysts largely expect Disney to grow EPS in the low double digits for several years, driven by:
- Continued improvement in streaming margins
- Ongoing parks and cruise expansion
- Share repurchases reducing the share count
How Disney’s fundamentals look in context
Trefis and ValueSense data paint a picture of a solid but not spectacular fundamental profile: [25]
- Revenue growth (last twelve months): ~5%, in line with the broader communication‑services sector.
- 3‑year average annual revenue growth: ~5.3%.
- Operating margin (LTM): ~11–15%, a bit below the median for large media/communications companies.
- Free cash flow margin (LTM): about 12%, healthy enough to support both reinvestment and capital returns.
Relative to peers, Disney trades at:
- A discount to many high‑growth tech and streaming platforms, which often command P/E multiples well above 20x.
- A modest premium to slower‑growth traditional media names, reflecting its stronger brand and parks business.
Key risks investors are watching
Even with improving EPS and bullish targets, analysts flag several material risks: [26]
- Structural decline of linear TV
- Double‑digit revenue and profit declines in domestic networks and weaker ESPN profit show that the old cable bundle is eroding faster than Disney can fully offset via streaming.
- Content and sports‑rights cost inflation
- Sports rights (NFL, NBA, MLB) and blockbuster film budgets are rising, squeezing margins if subscriber or attendance growth slows.
- Execution risk in streaming and app consolidation
- Integrating Disney+ and Hulu into a single global app, while maintaining profitability and preventing churn, is a non‑trivial technical and product challenge.
- YouTube TV and future carriage disputes
- A prolonged standoff could hurt ad revenue and negotiating leverage with other distributors, and it signals that future carriage battles are likely.
- Cyclical parks exposure and safety headlines
- Parks and cruises are sensitive to recessions and geopolitical shocks. Incidents like the EPCOT‑area vehicle accident, while rare, also keep safety and liability in the spotlight.
- Governance and brand perception issues
- The disabled‑shareholder dispute over DAS changes illustrates how quickly Disney can be criticized for perceived misalignment between its inclusive brand messaging and corporate behavior.
- Market risk and technical downside
- Trefis notes that when Disney has broken key support zones historically, drawdowns of 40–60% during major market sell‑offs were not unusual. If macro conditions worsen, the current support band might not hold.
Potential catalysts for Disney stock
On the positive side, several near‑ and medium‑term catalysts could support the bullish analyst view: [27]
- Sustained streaming profitability
- If Disney can keep DTC operating income growing from its new ~$1.3B quarterly base while maintaining subscriber growth, the market may reward the stock with a higher multiple.
- Parks, cruises and experiences expansion
- Experiences already generate record operating income and benefit from pricing power and new capacity (ships, hotels, attractions). Strong travel demand or successful new offerings can drive upside.
- Content pipeline
- Franchise titles like “Zootopia 2” and “Avatar: Fire and Ash”, alongside hits such as the new live‑action “Lilo & Stitch,” feed not only box office but also streaming engagement, merchandising and park integration.
- Capital returns
- A $7B 2026 buyback and higher dividend create a built‑in buyer of the stock and a clearer total‑return story.
- Resolution of the YouTube TV dispute
- Any agreement that restores Disney’s networks on favorable economics would remove a major overhang.
What today’s picture means for different types of investors
Nothing in this article is personalized financial advice, but today’s setup roughly frames Disney as:
- For growth‑oriented, brand‑focused investors:
- A global IP powerhouse with improving EPS, profitable streaming, and a parks engine that can compound cash flows—if management navigates the linear‑to‑streaming transition.
- For value or GARP (growth‑at‑a‑reasonable‑price) investors:
- A company trading at a mid‑teens P/E with consensus upside of ~25–30% to fair value or target price, but with real structural risks that justify a discount to pure‑play tech.
- For income investors:
- A newly higher but still modest dividend, backed by solid free cash flow and an explicit commitment to increasing shareholder payouts over time.
Ultimately, the December 9 news flow reinforces the central Disney debate:
Can a legacy entertainment conglomerate with world‑class IP and parks economics grow like a platform company, or will it remain a cyclical, mid‑growth cash‑generator that deserves only a market‑level multiple?
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.trefis.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. 247wallst.com, 5. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 6. 247wallst.com, 7. 247wallst.com, 8. www.disneydining.com, 9. insidethemagic.net, 10. wdwnt.com, 11. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 12. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 13. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investopedia.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. simplywall.st, 20. www.marketbeat.com, 21. www.marketbeat.com, 22. simplywall.st, 23. www.trefis.com, 24. www.marketwatch.com, 25. www.trefis.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.investing.com
