The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) is trading lower in Monday’s session as investors weigh a mix of near-term mechanics (Disney is going ex-dividend today) and fast-moving headlines tied to generative AI—headlines that have increasingly become a real factor in how the market values major IP owners.
As of midday Monday (around 12:20 p.m. ET), Disney shares were about $110.72, down roughly 0.8% on the day, after trading between $110.19 and $111.53.
Below is what’s driving the stock on December 15, 2025, what Disney’s latest corporate guidance signals, and where analysts see DIS heading into 2026.
Disney stock price check: where DIS trades on December 15, 2025
Disney stock is hovering in the low-$110s, a level many strategists and technicians describe as an important “decision zone” for the shares as investors look ahead to fiscal 2026 catalysts—streaming profitability, Experiences (parks/cruises) momentum, and now the company’s aggressive posture on AI licensing and enforcement.
Alongside the day’s price action, third-party market data trackers put Disney’s market cap near $198 billion and show the stock’s trailing P/E around 16—a valuation that is materially below many megacap peers, but reflects Disney’s mix of cyclical businesses and structural pressure on linear TV. [1]
The biggest headline still shaping DIS: Disney’s $1 billion OpenAI partnership
Disney’s most consequential recent catalyst is its $1 billion investment in OpenAI and a three-year partnership that licenses Disney-owned characters across franchises—including Disney, Pixar, Marvel, and Star Wars—for use in OpenAI’s Sora video generator and ChatGPT Images.
Reuters reported that the partnership is expected to enable generation of short videos featuring licensed characters (while excluding talent likenesses and voices) beginning early next year, and that Disney will also deploy ChatGPT internally for employees. Reuters also reported Disney will receive warrants to purchase additional equity in OpenAI, and that “guardrails” are planned to reduce the risk of characters being depicted in inappropriate scenarios. [2]
From a stock narrative standpoint, investors are watching two things closely:
- Monetization upside: licensed user-generated content could create new engagement loops for Disney+ (and potentially new ad inventory and/or subscription retention benefits).
- Defensive strategy: by licensing rather than only litigating, Disney potentially shifts AI from a threat to a regulated distribution channel—while still protecting the core value of its IP.
Disney vs. Google: the AI copyright fight adds a legal and regulatory layer to the story
At the same time as it partnered with OpenAI, Disney escalated pressure on Google.
The Associated Press reported that Disney sent Google a cease-and-desist letter demanding the company stop using Disney content without permission to feed and train AI models and to address allegedly infringing outputs—naming Google tools including Veo and image generators such as Imagen and Nano Banana. The AP also reported Disney accused Google of infringing “on a massive scale,” and described Disney’s view that YouTube distribution amplifies the alleged problem. [3]
Axios, citing a copy of the letter, reported Disney alleges Google’s AI services are designed to “free ride” on Disney IP and said Disney claimed it had raised concerns for months. Axios also reported Google said it would continue to engage with Disney and pointed to copyright controls for YouTube. [4]
TechCrunch similarly described the letter’s allegations and included Google’s response that it will “engage” with Disney while pointing to controls like Content ID on YouTube. [5]
Why this matters for Disney stock:
The market often rewards companies that (a) create optionality in new platforms (AI licensing), and (b) defend moat assets (copyright). The flip side is that litigation and enforcement can be costly, unpredictable, and politically sensitive—especially as AI regulation accelerates globally.
Disney dividend: DIS goes ex-dividend today (December 15, 2025)
One practical factor for Monday’s trading is that Disney is ex-dividend on December 15, 2025, with a $0.75 per share payment scheduled for January 15, 2026 (per dividend trackers). [6]
Disney’s own fiscal 2025 earnings release also confirmed the board declared a $1.50 per share dividend payable in two installments of $0.75, with the first installment payable January 15, 2026 (record date December 15, 2025) and the second payable in July 2026 (record date June 30, 2026). [7]
Why it can move the stock intraday:
On an ex-dividend date, a stock can appear to “dip” mechanically because new buyers are no longer entitled to the upcoming dividend payment.
Fundamentals: what Disney said in its latest results and what it guided for next
While today’s conversation is dominated by AI and IP enforcement, Disney’s valuation still rests on the core business engines: Experiences, Entertainment (including streaming), and sports.
In its fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter and full-year earnings release, Disney reported (among other metrics) quarterly revenue of $22.57 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.11. [8]
Key operating signals that matter for DIS investors include:
- Direct-to-consumer profitability: Disney reported positive operating income for its Entertainment direct-to-consumer business in the quarter (with Disney+ and Hulu central to that story), alongside subscriber metrics reported for Disney+ and Hulu. [9]
- Experiences strength: Disney highlighted record performance in its Experiences segment over fiscal 2025, reinforcing the thesis that parks and related businesses can help stabilize results even as linear TV continues to decline structurally. [10]
- Capital return focus: Disney said it expects double-digit adjusted EPS growth in fiscal 2026 and is targeting $7 billion of share repurchases in fiscal 2026. [11]
This combination—improving streaming economics, resilient Experiences cash flow, and stepped-up capital returns—has been a key reason many analysts maintain constructive targets even after periods of stock underperformance.
Entertainment catalyst: “Zootopia 2” crosses $1 billion worldwide
Disney’s studio results can be volatile quarter-to-quarter, but blockbuster performance still influences sentiment because it can lift the broader flywheel (consumer products, parks synergy, and eventual streaming engagement).
This week, AP reported “Zootopia 2” surpassed $1.14 billion globally, becoming the year’s second film to clear $1 billion worldwide, with unusually strong performance in China highlighted as a major contributor. [12]
Reuters also reported earlier this month that “Zootopia 2” broke records in China, including a massive opening stretch that underscored the franchise’s pull in that market. [13]
For DIS stock, this doesn’t automatically translate into higher earnings guidance—but it does support the view that Disney’s franchise machine remains capable of delivering global-scale hits.
Governance headline: Disney nominates former Apple COO Jeff Williams to the board
On the corporate governance side, Reuters reported Disney nominated Jeff Williams, Apple’s former COO, as an independent director candidate, subject to shareholder approval at Disney’s 2026 annual meeting. [14]
Investors often read high-profile tech leadership additions as a signal that Disney wants deeper operational and product discipline—particularly relevant as the company builds new technology-forward distribution and creation models in streaming and AI.
Analyst forecasts and price targets for Disney stock
Wall Street’s consensus view remains broadly constructive, though targets vary by model assumptions (especially around streaming margins, linear declines, and how much AI changes the revenue opportunity).
Here’s what major forecast aggregators show as of mid-December:
- TipRanks: average 12-month price target about $137.87 (high $152, low $123) and a “Strong Buy” consensus based on recent analyst updates. [15]
- MarketBeat: consensus target around $134.41 (with a high target of $152). [16]
- StockAnalysis: average target around $135.06 with a “Strong Buy” consensus, and it also flags an estimated next earnings date of Feb. 4, 2026 (estimated). [17]
Fresh analyst note today: Wolfe Research raises Disney target
In a market note dated December 15, 2025, TipRanks/TheFly reported Wolfe Research raised its price target on Disney to $134 from $133 and kept an Outperform rating as part of its 2026 sector outlook. [18]
Media view today: Barron’s lists Disney among “Stocks to Buy for 2026”
Barron’s published a “top picks for 2026” list today that includes Walt Disney, framing it as undervalued with growth potential—particularly highlighting parks and cruises as a support pillar. [19]
Technical and valuation watch: what traders are watching around $110
From a technical perspective, Disney is trading close to widely watched moving averages. StockAnalysis data shows the 50-day moving average near $109.39 and the 200-day near $109.60, with an RSI in the high-50s (often read as “neutral to modestly bullish,” depending on the system). [20]
Trefis, in a recent technical/fundamental blend analysis, described DIS as trading in (or near) a historical support zone and published a model value estimate in the mid-$130s, while emphasizing that support-based rebounds are more reliable when fundamentals align. [21]
Bottom line: the low-$110 area is being treated as a key battlefield—especially with Disney’s next big catalysts pushed into early 2026.
What investors will watch next for Disney stock
Heading out of mid-December and into the new year, DIS investors will likely focus on:
- Execution of the OpenAI partnership (timing, product rollout, and whether Disney+ can turn licensed user-generated content into measurable engagement and revenue). [22]
- Any escalation—or settlement dynamics—in the Google copyright dispute, including whether it leads to licensing frameworks, policy changes, or broader precedent-setting actions across Big Tech. [23]
- Next earnings cycle and guidance updates (with market calendars pointing to early February 2026 as the next estimated reporting window). [24]
- Experiences demand and pricing power, including how consumer spending trends shape parks and cruise results through 2026. [25]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.axios.com, 5. techcrunch.com, 6. www.tipranks.com, 7. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 8. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 9. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 10. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 11. thewaltdisneycompany.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. www.marketbeat.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. www.tipranks.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. stockanalysis.com, 21. www.trefis.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. apnews.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. thewaltdisneycompany.com
