Updated: Sunday, December 21, 2025 — Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ: DJT) is back in the spotlight after a headline-grabbing pivot: a proposed $6 billion all-stock merger with TAE Technologies, a privately held nuclear fusion company backed by major investors including Google and Chevron. The announcement jolted a stock that had spent much of 2025 sliding—and reminded markets that DJT remains a narrative-driven, high-volatility trade. [1]
With U.S. markets closed for the weekend, DJT stock last traded at about $16.09 (Friday, Dec. 19 close), after a violent two-day move that included an eye-popping surge on the merger news and another big swing to end the week. [2]
Below is what’s driving Trump Media stock right now, what filings and forecasts are saying as of 21.12.2025, and the concrete catalysts traders are likely to focus on next.
What happened to DJT stock this week
The catalyst is straightforward: Trump Media & Technology Group (the Truth Social parent) and TAE Technologies announced they signed a definitive agreement to combine in an all-stock transaction valued at more than $6 billion. The companies say the combined entity plans to site and begin construction on a 50 MWe (50-megawatt electric) “utility-scale” fusion power plant in 2026, with additional plants envisioned at 350–500 MWe, subject to approvals. [3]
The market reaction was immediate. Reuters reported DJT shares jumped roughly 35% on the day of the announcement, in what amounted to a sudden reversal for a stock that had been deeply underwater over the past year. [4]
By the closing bell on Dec. 18, data services tracking the move showed DJT logging one of its biggest single-day gains in a long time (up roughly 42% on that session by some counts). [5]
Then on Friday, Dec. 19, DJT rose again to about $16.09, after an intraday range that underscored just how unstable price discovery remains in this name. [6]
The deal: a social-media company becomes a fusion-energy gateway
If this feels unusual, that’s because it is. The structure matters:
- Ownership: TAE and TMTG shareholders are expected to each own about 50% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis at closing. [7]
- Timeline: The companies say the transaction is expected to close in mid-2026, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. [8]
- Leadership: Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes and TAE CEO Dr. Michl Binderbauer are expected to serve as co-CEOs. [9]
- Board: The announced governance framework includes a planned nine-member board with representation from both sides, including Donald Trump Jr. as one of the directors. [10]
That last point matters because DJT is not just a normal small-cap equity; it’s a stock with a uniquely political shareholder base and headline sensitivity. Reuters noted that Donald Trump held 114 million shares—roughly 40%—and that his stake would drop to about 20% after the merger, based on the described structure. [11]
The financing detail investors should not ignore: $200M now, +$100M tied to filings
One of the most concrete near-term items is not philosophical (“fusion!”) but contractual (“cash!”).
In a Dec. 18 Form 8-K, Trump Media disclosed an unsecured convertible promissory note tied to the merger agreement. Under that note, TMTG agreed to fund $200 million to TAE within five business days, and—at TAE’s request—up to an additional $100 million upon TMTG’s initial filing of the registration statement (the deal documents reference Form S‑4). [12]
That’s a real cash commitment, and it’s central to the bull case being pitched: DJT’s balance sheet (and access to public markets) becomes the accelerator for a capital-intensive fusion effort. [13]
Fusion is the story—but the company still has to answer basic questions about its core business
Even before fusion entered the picture, investors wrestled with a simple issue: Truth Social hasn’t scaled like mainstream platforms, which limits ad monetization and recurring revenue potential.
A widely cited benchmark comes from Pew Research Center’s 2025 social media survey: Truth Social is used by about 3% of U.S. adults (based on a survey conducted Feb. 5–June 18, 2025). [14]
For a social-media business, that’s a tough starting point for convincing advertisers—and it helps explain why DJT often trades less like a steady media company and more like a high-beta headline instrument.
This is also where valuation gets weird. Yahoo Finance key statistics show DJT trading at a price-to-sales ratio in the ~1,000x range (a reflection of very small trailing revenue relative to a multi-billion-dollar equity value), while price-to-book has been closer to the low single digits. [15]
Translation: the stock’s price action is not being driven by conventional “revenue growth × margin expansion” math. It’s being driven by optionality—new ventures, political attention, and now a fusion narrative.
DJT’s other big swing factor: crypto and “digital-asset treasury” strategy
If you only think of DJT as “Truth Social stock,” you’re missing half the plot.
Bitcoin treasury ambitions
Reuters reported in May 2025 that Trump Media planned to raise about $2.5 billion—including stock and convertible notes—to invest in bitcoin, with custody services from Anchorage Digital and Crypto.com. [16]
Q3 2025: $3.1B in “financial assets,” big crypto activity, and big losses
In its third-quarter 2025 results announcement (Nov. 7, 2025), Trump Media said it ended the quarter with $3.1 billion in financial assets—a bucket that includes cash, short-term investments, trading securities, and digital assets. [17]
The same release highlighted:
- $15.3 million of realized income in Q3 from option premiums associated with “bitcoin related securities,” plus interest income from other financial holdings. [18]
- A $54.8 million net loss in Q3 (with much of it described as non-cash items tied to fair-value changes and other adjustments), and elevated legal expenses. [19]
- A major position in Cronos (CRO): the company said it purchased about 684.4 million CRO, funded by $50 million in cash and $47 million in common stock, alongside broader partnerships with Crypto.com and planned “prediction markets” functionality. [20]
Put simply: DJT’s risk profile is not just “social media execution.” It’s also crypto market exposure and deal execution—and now fusion technology commercialization risk.
Forecasts as of 21.12.2025: what prediction models are saying (and what Wall Street isn’t)
A critical reality for investors searching for a clean “consensus price target”: traditional analyst coverage appears limited. Zacks explicitly notes DJT does not have an analyst price target set. [21]
So most readily available “forecasts” circulating online are model-driven (quant patterning, technical indicators, or algorithmic extrapolation). Here are a few that are being published/updated around today:
- Intellectia (updated as of Dec. 21, 2025) flags a -7.69% projected move over the next month (based on its correlation-driven model). [22]
- StockInvest lists a “predicted fair opening price” for Monday, Dec. 22, 2025 around $16.02 (a very small implied change, but the same page also highlights huge recent volatility). [23]
- CoinCodex model output for late 2025 clusters DJT in a band roughly in the mid-teens (its published ranges vary by timeframe and are best read as scenario bands, not fundamentals-based targets). [24]
These are not substitutes for fundamentals-based research, but they matter because DJT’s shareholder base is heavily retail—and retail flows often respond to exactly these kinds of “forecast” headlines.
The options market is pricing in mayhem
If there’s one place you can see DJT’s “story stock” identity quantified, it’s options pricing.
Multiple data providers show DJT’s implied volatility sitting around ~100% (give or take depending on the method and lookback), which is extremely high by large-cap standards and signals expectations of continued large swings:
- MarketChameleon lists implied volatility around 98.3 and notes it’s high versus its history. [25]
- Fintel shows 30-day options-implied volatility above 100. [26]
In practical terms, that means traders are paying up for protection and/or upside exposure—often a hallmark of a stock that can move hard on a single press release.
Short activity: not the same as “short interest,” but it’s flashing active trading
Official short interest data can lag and vary by source, but daily short sale volume can show whether a stock is seeing heavy two-sided trading.
FINRA off-exchange data compiled by Fintel shows DJT’s short volume ratio spiking around the deal window—roughly 59% on Dec. 18 and about 46% on Dec. 19. [27]
Important nuance: short volume is not the same thing as short interest (which is the total shares sold short and not yet covered). But high short volume often accompanies high volatility events—especially in retail-heavy tickers.
The biggest risks DJT investors should keep front-of-mind
1) Fusion is not commercially proven at grid scale.
Reuters emphasizes that despite decades of work, nuclear fusion “has yet to produce a commercially viable reactor,” and commercialization faces major engineering hurdles. [28]
2) The merger has a long runway and multiple approval gates.
The companies target mid‑2026 closing and explicitly flag shareholder/regulatory approvals and SEC registration/proxy materials. [29]
3) Conflicts-of-interest and political scrutiny are part of the investment thesis—whether investors like it or not.
Reuters reported Democratic Rep. Don Beyer raised concerns about conflicts and potential corruption avenues tied to the deal, calling for oversight. [30]
4) DJT is already a complex holding-company-in-the-making, with crypto exposure.
The company itself describes significant digital-asset activity and partnerships, plus large fair-value swings affecting reported results. [31]
What to watch next: DJT’s near-term catalyst checklist
Going into the next trading week (and the next several quarters), the most market-moving items are likely to be:
- SEC filings tied to the merger (Form S‑4, proxy/prospectus documents, updated risk factors). [32]
- Confirmation of the $200M funding timeline and any amendments to the convertible note arrangement. [33]
- Any new disclosures about the combined company’s capital needs, site selection, or construction milestones for the first planned plant. [34]
- Updates on Truth Social / Truth+ / Truth.Fi monetization and user metrics (the market still lacks mainstream-platform scale indicators; Pew’s usage estimate underscores the challenge). [35]
- Crypto exposure: shifts in bitcoin strategy, CRO holdings, and any new product rollouts tied to Crypto.com partnerships. [36]
Bottom line for Trump Media stock on 21.12.2025
As of today, DJT stock is trading less like a traditional media equity and more like a bundle of high-volatility options on three narratives:
- A fusion-energy commercialization bet via TAE,
- A crypto-forward balance sheet and financial product pipeline, and
- A politically supercharged social platform that remains niche by mass-market usage measures.
That combination can produce explosive upside on catalysts—and brutal drawdowns when the story cools or reality-checks arrive in SEC footnotes.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. stockinvest.us, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.zacks.com, 6. stockinvest.us, 7. www.globenewswire.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.sec.gov, 13. www.sec.gov, 14. www.pewresearch.org, 15. finance.yahoo.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.pressviewer.com, 18. www.pressviewer.com, 19. www.pressviewer.com, 20. www.pressviewer.com, 21. www.zacks.com, 22. intellectia.ai, 23. stockinvest.us, 24. coincodex.com, 25. marketchameleon.com, 26. fintel.io, 27. fintel.io, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.globenewswire.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.pressviewer.com, 32. www.sec.gov, 33. www.sec.gov, 34. www.sec.gov, 35. www.pewresearch.org, 36. www.reuters.com
