Dollar General (DG) Stock: What to Know Before the Market Opens on December 8, 2025

Dollar General Corporation (NYSE: DG) heads into Monday’s U.S. session near 52‑week highs after a powerful post‑earnings rally, a raised profit outlook, and a fresh wave of weekend research. Here’s what traders and longer‑term investors should have on their radar before the bell on December 8, 2025.

Key takeaways at a glance

Big earnings beat: Q3 FY2025 EPS came in at $1.28 vs about $0.95 expected, with net sales up 4.6% to $10.6 billion and same‑store sales up 2.5%. Gross margin expanded to 29.9%, up roughly 1.1 percentage points year over year. ^[1]
Guidance raised: Management lifted full‑year FY2025 EPS guidance to $6.30–$6.50 and now expects 4.7–4.9% net sales growth and 2.5–2.7% same‑store sales growth, all higher than prior ranges. ^[2]
Stock near 52‑week highs: DG closed Friday, December 5, at $132.37, after gains of 14% on Thursday and 5.7% on Friday, for roughly a 20% two‑day rally. The stock is now trading close to its 52‑week high around $135, and nearly double its 52‑week low of $66.43. ^[3]
Weekend coverage turns more optimistic but cautious on valuation: New analysis published on December 7 by 24/7 Wall St, Simply Wall St, MarketBeat and AInvest highlights DG’s margin recovery and free‑cash‑flow strength, but notes that the stock is now trading slightly above the average 12‑month analyst target around $125–$129. ^[4]
Heavy institutional ownership & fresh upgrades: Around 92% of shares are now held by institutional investors, and recent days saw upgrades and target hikes from Jefferies, Goldman Sachs and others, with some price targets as high as $142–$160, even as the overall rating remains closer to “Hold/Outperform” than “Strong Buy.” ^[5]
Key risk in the background: A major investigation into pricing accuracy across the dollar‑store industry, including Dollar General, underscores regulatory and reputational risks just as the company leans into its value message. ^[6]

1. Where Dollar General stock stands before Monday’s open

After a difficult 2023–early 2024 stretch, Dollar General has spent most of 2025 rebuilding investor confidence. The Q3 2025 earnings release on December 4 was the inflection point.

DG finished Friday, Dec. 5, at $132.37, with an after‑hours print around $132.47. ^[7]
Over Thursday and Friday, the stock jumped from roughly $110 to the low‑$130s, matching reports of a ~20% two‑day rally. ^[8]
Over the past week, DG is up more than 20%, and from its 52‑week low near $66.43 it has almost doubled. ^[9]

Fundamentally:

MarketBeat’s weekend snapshot notes a market cap around $29 billion, a P/E near 23, a PEG ratio just above 3, and a beta of about 0.27, underscoring that DG is still viewed as a relatively defensive, low‑volatility consumer‑staples play despite the recent surge. ^[10]

Implication for today:
Heading into December 8, DG is a momentum stock again. With shares just below a new high and now trading above the average analyst target, the opening trade could easily feature a tug‑of‑war between FOMO buyers chasing the breakout and short‑term traders taking profits after the earnings gap‑up.

2. The earnings report that changed the narrative

Dollar General’s Q3 FY2025 (quarter ended October 31, 2025) is what rekindled investor enthusiasm.

According to the company’s official earnings release: ^[11]

Net sales: up 4.6% year over year to $10.6 billion.
Same‑store sales: up 2.5%, driven by 2.5% higher traffic and flat ticket size.
Gross margin: improved from 28.8% to 29.9% (about +107 basis points), helped by higher inventory markups and lower shrink (loss/theft).
Operating profit: up 31.5% to $425.9 million.
Net income: up 43.8% to $282.7 million.
Diluted EPS:$1.28, versus $0.89 a year earlier.

External data from LSEG/Reuters shows that EPS of $1.28 beat the Street consensus of about $0.95, a roughly 35–38% positive surprise, while revenue modestly topped expectations of around $10.60 billion. ^[12]

Guidance reset

More important than the backward‑looking beat was the upgrade to full‑year guidance:

FY2025 net sales growth: now 4.7–4.9% (up from 4.3–4.8%).
FY2025 same‑store sales:2.5–2.7% (up from 2.1–2.6%).
FY2025 EPS:$6.30–$6.50 (raised from $5.80–$6.30). ^[13]

Management also:

Reaffirmed total capital expenditures at the lower end of $1.3–$1.4 billion for FY2025. ^[14]
Announced a $0.59 quarterly cash dividend, payable January 20, 2026 to shareholders of record on January 6, implying an annualized dividend of $2.36 (about a 1.7–1.8% yield at current prices). ^[15]

In short, Dollar General beat on earnings, widened margins, and raised guidance — exactly the combination that tends to drive sharp re‑ratings in defensive retail names.

3. What December 7 research and commentary are saying

Several pieces of fresh analysis dropped on December 7, 2025, giving investors weekend reading ahead of today’s open. Here’s how they frame DG now.

3.1 24/7 Wall St: “Dollar General Beats Estimates by 36% as Dollar Tree Stumbles”

A widely circulated article at 24/7 Wall St compares DG’s results to those of rival Dollar Tree: ^[16]

Highlights that EPS beat estimates by about 36%, with revenue slightly ahead of consensus and gross margin up 110 bps to 29.9%.
Notes a roughly 20% two‑day rally in DG’s share price following the earnings release.
Emphasizes that operating income grew 31.5% and that DG is planning about 4,885 real‑estate projects (new stores, remodels, relocations) for the coming fiscal year.
Contrasts DG’s margin‑driven strength with Dollar Tree’s faster revenue growth but weaker operating‑margin trends, arguing that DG currently looks stronger on fundamentals.

Takeaway: This piece frames DG as the better‑executing dollar‑store operator right now, with particular emphasis on structural margin improvement rather than just revenue growth.

3.2 Simply Wall St: Analysts ramp EPS forecasts through 2027

Simply Wall St’s December 7 note, “Dollar General Corporation Just Recorded A 38% EPS Beat: Here’s What Analysts Are Forecasting Next,” zooms out to the multi‑year view: ^[17]

It calculates the EPS beat at 38% vs estimates, reiterating the $1.28 EPS and roughly $11 billion in quarterly revenue.
Looking ahead, the consensus from 27 analysts now calls for 2027 revenue of about $44.2 billion — roughly 5% growth from the last 12‑month figure.
2027 EPS is projected at around $7.00, about 21% above the latest 12‑month level, reflecting expectations of continued margin expansion rather than rapid top‑line acceleration.
The average 12‑month price target has risen about 7–8% to roughly $129, with a very wide range from $80 on the low end to $160 on the high end, signaling meaningful disagreement on DG’s long‑term trajectory.

Takeaway: The weekend forecast work largely agrees that earnings power is improving faster than sales, but also flags that DG’s projected revenue growth — mid‑single‑digit annually — is now expected to trail the broader food & staples retail group.

3.3 MarketBeat: Institutional buying and a “Hold, but bullish tilt” rating stack

A December 7 MarketBeat article focuses on institutional positioning and the evolving rating profile: ^[18]

GeoWealth Management LLC boosted its stake by over 1,300% in Q2 to 8,611 shares (about $985,000).
Other big holders like Vanguard, Invesco, Arrowstreet Capital, Baupost Group, and Northern Trust have all increased positions in recent quarters.
In total, hedge funds and other institutions own about 91.77% of DG’s float, confirming that the shareholder base is overwhelmingly professional.
The article also recaps recent analyst actions:
- Telsey Advisory Group: “Market Perform,” target raised to $130.
- Jefferies:“Buy”, target increased to $142.
- Goldman Sachs: upgrade from “Strong Sell” to “Hold”.
- Wolfe Research:“Outperform”, target $139.

According to MarketBeat’s aggregated data, the current analyst breakdown for DG is: ^[19]

1 analyst with a Strong Buy,
11 with Buy,
15 with Hold,
with a consensus rating around “Hold” and a consensus price target near $125–$126.

Takeaway: The Street’s stance has clearly improved, but the consensus target is now slightly below Friday’s close, which may cap short‑term upside unless guidance rises again or results continue to outperform.

3.4 AInvest: Margin expansion and free cash flow as a “strategic buy” thesis

An AI‑assisted analysis on AInvest published early on December 7 argues that DG’s recent performance and guidance raise make it a “strategic long‑term buy”, with an emphasis on operational leverage and free cash flow: ^[20]

Key points from that piece (drawing on company filings and industry data):

DG’s gross margin expansion to 29.9% is tied to inventory optimization and shrink reduction, supported by its “Back to Basics” initiative.
The company is executing roughly 4,885 real‑estate projects in FY2025 and 4,730 in FY2026, combining hundreds of new U.S. and Mexico stores with thousands of Project Renovate and Project Elevate remodels. ^[21]
Operating profit in Q3 rose more than 30%, and year‑to‑date operating cash flow is up almost 30% to about $2.8 billion, highlighting strong cash generation relative to sales growth. ^[22]

The article extrapolates that, if DG keeps shrinking shrink (pun intended), optimizing labor and leveraging remodeled stores, operating margins could trend toward the mid‑single‑digits by 2028, potentially supporting compounding earnings and cash returns.

Takeaway: This analysis leans bullish and long‑term, underscoring DG as a margin‑recovery, cash‑flow story, but investors should note that some of its forward‑looking numbers are model‑based and not official guidance.

4. Analyst targets, fair‑value estimates and valuation today

Where does that leave DG’s valuation as of this morning?

Average 12‑month sell‑side target: around $125–$129, depending on the data provider, implying that the stock is now trading modestly above consensus fair value. ^[23]
Target range: roughly $80 (bear case) to $160 (bull case), a very wide spread that reflects uncertainty about how far margins can ultimately rebound. ^[24]
GuruFocus aggregation: an average one‑year target around $125.9 and a proprietary “GF Value” estimate near $148, suggesting mild downside vs Street targets but potential upside vs some valuation models. ^[25]
Multiples: MarketBeat’s snapshot pegs DG at about 22.9× trailing earnings, with a PEG of 3.1; not cheap, but not extreme for a defensive retailer that’s re‑accelerating earnings. ^[26]

Bottom line on valuation:

Short term: After the sharp rally, DG is no longer an obvious “deep value” turnaround — the easy multiple re‑rating may be behind it.
Medium term: The stock price now assumes continued execution on margin and store productivity, but the most bullish analyst and fair‑value models still see room for incremental upside if DG hits or exceeds its longer‑term profitability goals.

5. Strategy check: what Dollar General is trying to do

The weekend research converges on a common narrative: Dollar General is in the middle of a multi‑year turnaround and modernization effort.

5.1 “Back to Basics” and shrink reduction

Industry analyses and DG’s own commentary describe a program focused on: ^[27]

Reducing inventory shrink (theft, damage, and process loss) through tighter controls, SKU rationalization, and better shelf discipline.
Re‑training store staff, re‑emphasizing core retail basics like in‑stock levels and pricing accuracy.
Supply chain upgrades, including revised case packs, fewer “touches” per item, and investment in distribution infrastructure.

The improvement in gross margin to 29.9% in Q3 2025 — up over a full percentage point year over year — is one of the clearest signs that these efforts are gaining traction. ^[28]

5.2 Aggressive remodels and store expansion

DG is also leaning into store modernization and growth:

FY2025 plan: about 4,885 real‑estate projects, including 575 new U.S. stores, up to 15 new Mexican stores, and more than 4,200 remodels (Project Renovate and Project Elevate combined). ^[29]
FY2026 plan: about 4,730 projects, with roughly 450 new U.S. units, ~10 in Mexico, and a similar number of remodels. ^[30]
Management has suggested there could be 11,000 additional potential U.S. locations over the long term as other retailers, including pharmacies, close sites — a theme highlighted in both news and analysis coverage last week. ^[31]

Remodeled stores typically carry a more curated assortment, better layout, and more refrigerated/fresh capacity, which DG believes can deliver a 3–5% comp lift over time in those locations, according to recent commentary summarized by AInvest and other outlets. ^[32]

5.3 Digital and higher‑margin mix

Alongside physical expansion, DG is working on:

Digital integrations like delivery partnerships and expanded EBT/SNAP capabilities. ^[33]
A push toward higher‑margin non‑consumables (seasonal, home, apparel) and “premiumized” consumables (e.g., better packaging, zero‑sugar beverages). ^[34]

The goal is to keep its price image intact for core low‑income shoppers while coaxing a larger “basket” and more trips from middle‑ and higher‑income customers who have been trading down amid cost‑of‑living pressures — a trend highlighted in coverage by Reuters, Axios, MarketWatch and Investopedia. ^[35]

6. Key risks and red flags investors should not ignore

The story is not risk‑free, and several concerns remain front‑and‑center in this morning’s setup.

6.1 Pricing accuracy and regulatory scrutiny

A major Guardian investigation, published December 3, alleges widespread overcharging across the dollar‑store industry, including Dollar General. ^[36]

The report says DG stores have failed more than 4,300 price‑accuracy inspections in 23 states since 2022, with some locations showing very high error rates.
Several state attorneys general, including in Colorado, New Jersey, Ohio, Vermont and Wisconsin, have already reached settlements or imposed fines on DG for pricing issues. ^[37]

DG has stated that it is committed to accurate pricing and that its store teams are empowered to correct errors on the spot, but the pattern of enforcement actions suggests ongoing operational and reputational risk, particularly given DG’s brand promise of ultra‑low prices.

6.2 Execution risk on a very large build‑out

The scale of DG’s real‑estate and remodel program — nearly 10,000 projects over two fiscal years — creates meaningful execution risk: ^[38]

Delays, cost overruns, or poor returns on remodeled stores could pressure margins.
Over‑saturation in some markets may trigger local pushback, particularly in communities already concerned about food deserts and the impact of dollar stores on small businesses.

6.3 Consumer health and macro environment

DG’s core customers are households often earning under $35,000 per year, a group that has been under sustained pressure from inflation, higher interest rates, and reduced government support. ^[39]

While discounters have benefited from trade‑down, there is a limit to how much cash‑strapped customers can spend, especially if essential items keep rising in price or if overcharging controversies erode trust.
A weaker labor market, renewed inflation spike, or further cuts to assistance programs could all hit DG’s core shopper harder than the average retailer’s.

7. What could move Dollar General stock at today’s open

With the fundamental backdrop set, here’s what to watch as U.S. markets open on December 8, 2025:

Follow‑through vs. profit‑taking
- After a ~20% two‑day jump, some fast‑money traders may lock in profits, especially with DG trading above consensus targets.
- On the other hand, new buyers who spent the weekend digesting Q3 and Sunday’s bullish commentary may look to buy any early dip.
Reaction to weekend research
- Bulls will likely point to raised guidance, improving margins, institutional buying, and multi‑year EPS upgrades. ^[40]
- Skeptics will highlight valuation creep, regulatory risks, and slowing revenue growth compared with some peers.
Sector and macro tone
- Dollar stores often trade with consumer‑staples and “recession‑resistant” baskets. Risk‑off macro news or a broad defensive rotation could support DG, while a growth‑led, risk‑on tape might see investors rotate back into higher‑beta names.
Technical levels
- The $135 area (recent intraday high and 52‑week high) is the obvious resistance. A convincing break above could trigger momentum buying; repeated failures there may invite more selling. ^[41]

8. The bottom line: DG into December 8, 2025

Putting it all together:

The good news:
- Dollar General just delivered a clean beat and raise, widened margins, generated strong cash flow, and laid out a credible multi‑year plan for store growth and remodeling. ^[42]
- Weekend commentary from multiple outlets turned materially more constructive, with analysts pushing up EPS forecasts through 2027 and some raising price targets into the $140–$160 range. ^[43]
The catch:
- After the rally, DG now trades above the average 12‑month target and at a fuller multiple, meaning much of the near‑term good news is arguably in the price. ^[44]
- Regulatory scrutiny over pricing accuracy and the sheer scale of its expansion program remain meaningful wild cards that investors can’t ignore. ^[45]

For traders and investors watching the open today, DG is best thought of as a momentum‑charged turnaround story:

Short‑term moves are likely to be driven by sentiment and positioning around that earnings gap and the 52‑week high.
Longer‑term outcomes will depend on how well Dollar General executes on shrink reduction, store remodels, and pricing discipline while balancing value for its most vulnerable customers.

As always, this article is for information and analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. Anyone considering Dollar General stock should weigh these factors against their own risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial situation — and, ideally, consult a qualified financial professional.

References