Dow Chemical Stock (DOW) in December 2025: Dividend Cut, Lawsuits and 2026 Recovery Hopes

Dow Chemical stock – technically Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW), the successor to The Dow Chemical Company – is limping into the end of 2025 after one of its roughest years since the pandemic.

At Friday’s close on 5 December 2025, DOW was trading just under $23 per share, roughly 40–45% lower than a year ago and about 48% below its 52‑week high near $44. ^[1] Smartkarma notes a year‑to‑date decline of about 43%, with the stock recently dipping to $22.87 in heavy volume. ^[2]

The damage hasn’t come from one single shock but from a cluster of negative catalysts:

A halving of the quarterly dividend
Weak earnings and a gloomy 2025–2026 outlook
Multiple credit-rating downgrades
Securities class‑action lawsuits over allegedly misleading guidance
A global chemical cycle stuck in the mud

At the same time, Wall Street price targets and some AI/quant models still suggest moderate upside from current levels, while Dow pushes cost cuts and leans into higher‑value materials for electric vehicles and renewable energy.

Here’s a deep dive into where Dow Chemical stock stands as of 7 December 2025, and what recent news, forecasts and analyses are really saying.

Where Dow Chemical stock stands now

Several independent data platforms peg Dow’s last close around $22.9–$23.0 per share at the end of trading on 5 December 2025. MarketBeat shows a closing price of $22.94, while Intellectia and Simply Wall St show $22.96. ^[3]

Key performance stats from Simply Wall St: ^[4]

Current share price: $22.96
52‑week high: $44.04
52‑week low: $20.40
1‑year share price change: –45.3%
5‑year change: –57.5%

In other words, most of the value destruction happened in this cycle, not just in a bad quarter or two.

Smartkarma’s daily market-mover note on 5 December highlighted: ^[5]

Price: $22.87, down 3.75% on the day
Volume: 10.26 million shares
YTD performance: –43%

Smartkarma also assigns Dow an overall “Smart Score” of 4.0 out of 5, with particularly strong marks for Dividend and Momentum, but weaker scores for Growth and Resilience – a neat summary of “cheap, high‑yielding, but cyclical and fragile.” ^[6]

One more psychological blow in 2025: Dow is no longer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Sherwin‑Williams was added to the index in its place, a reminder that index committees decided another chemicals name was a better bellwether. ^[7]

Earnings recap: from Q4 2024 pain to Q3 2025 “less bad”

The current stock story really starts with weak results in late 2024, when Dow reported a $35 million loss in Q4 2024 and full‑year EPS of $1.71, down from $2.24 in 2023. Sales fell about 3.6% to $43 billion, and management responded with 1,500 job cuts (about 4% of the workforce) to save $1 billion in costs. ^[8]

Those cuts came on top of about 2,000 layoffs in early 2023, underscoring how long this downturn has dragged on. ^[9]

Fast‑forward to Q3 2025, reported in late October:

Net sales: $9.97 billion, down about 8% year‑on‑year and slightly below analyst expectations around $10.2B ^[10]
GAAP net income: $124 million (vs. $240 million a year earlier) ^[11]
Operating EBIT: $180 million, down roughly $461 million year‑on‑year ^[12]
Operating EBITDA: $868 million, down from $1.38 billion ^[13]
GAAP EPS: $0.08
Operating EPS: –$0.19, which actually beat expectations of a roughly –$0.29 loss, according to Reuters. ^[14]
Cash from operating activities (continuing ops): $1.1 billion, up $330 million vs. Q3 2024, helped by working‑capital improvements and advance payments for low‑carbon solutions. ^[15]

Management’s message in the official release was basically: “Yes, conditions are awful, but we’re getting a bit better at surfing the wave.” CEO Jim Fitterling emphasised sequential improvement in earnings and cash flow, tailwinds from new polyethylene and alkoxylation assets on the U.S. Gulf Coast, and progress toward more than $6.5 billion in “near‑term cash support.” ^[16]

On the Q3 call and in a Reuters write‑up, Dow also: ^[17]

Highlighted cost cuts and new U.S. Gulf Coast capacity as key offsets to low global chemical prices
Guided Q4 2025 net sales to about $9.4 billion, noticeably below analyst expectations (~$10.1B)
Flagged that macroeconomic conditions remain challenging and that pricing pressure, especially in Europe, Middle East, Africa and India, should continue as Asian exporters redirect volumes away from tariff‑protected U.S. markets
Said European rationalisation and shutdowns should eventually boost core profit by nearly $200 million beginning mid‑2026

Quartr’s earnings summary adds that Dow expects Q4 2025 EBITDA of roughly $725 million and net sales of ~ $9.4 billion, including a $25–$60 million hit from a polyethylene unit fire in Texas. ^[18]

This is “less bad” rather than “good” – still losses on an operating EPS basis, but with evidence that cost actions are starting to matter.

The dividend: halved, but still juicy

Dow’s dividend is at the centre of both the bull and bear cases.

Until mid‑2025, Dow was paying $0.70 per share per quarter, which at the then‑falling share price produced a headline yield well over 9%. In July 2025 the company cut the quarterly dividend in half to $0.35, and stuck with that level for subsequent quarters. ^[19]

Key facts:

Current quarterly dividend: $0.35 per share
Annualised dividend: $1.40
Forward yield: about 6.1% at a ~$23 share price ^[20]
Latest declaration: on 9 October 2025, Dow’s board declared a $0.35 dividend payable 12 December 2025 to holders of record on 28 November, marking the 457th consecutive dividend by Dow or its predecessors since 1912. ^[21]
Dividend growth (1‑year): –25% ^[22]

Barron’s framed the July cut bluntly: Dow slashed the dividend 50% to conserve cash in a prolonged downturn that produced a large second‑quarter loss, and the stock tumbled about 17.5% in one day after the news. ^[23]

Fitch later estimated the cut reduced annual dividend outlays by about $1 billion, but still expects more than $2.6 billion of negative free cash flow in 2025, partly due to heavy capex on the Path2Zero ethylene project in Alberta. ^[24]

Simply Wall St and GuruFocus both highlight that: ^[25]

Interest payments and the dividend are not well covered by current earnings or free cash flow.
Dow’s interest‑coverage ratio is only about 0.5x, and its debt‑to‑EBITDA is above 6x, both uncomfortable numbers for a cyclical commodity business.
The Altman Z‑score around 1.5 sits in the “distress” zone, implying elevated balance‑sheet risk if the downturn drags on.

Translation: the dividend is still big, but it is now clearly “risk‑y” income, not bond‑like income.

Credit downgrades: balance sheet under the microscope

Two major rating agencies have turned more cautious on Dow in 2025:

Moody’s downgraded Dow to Baa2 from Baa1 and assigned a negative outlook, citing expectations that earnings and credit metrics would weaken further in 2025 from already low 2024 levels. The agency pointed to weak demand in key end markets and elevated capital spending, including the Alberta ethylene project. ^[26]
Fitch cut Dow’s long‑term issuer rating from BBB+ to BBB on 31 July 2025, flagging sluggish demand in construction and automotive, an industry oversupply of ethylene, and leverage around 4x EBITDA as key concerns. Fitch forecasts negative free cash flow exceeding $2.6 billion in 2025, before a gradual improvement and 3–5% annual revenue growth from around 2026 onward. ^[27]

Both agencies acknowledge some positives:

A global footprint and diversified products
Access to low‑cost North American natural gas, which is a structural advantage versus many European and Asian peers
Strong liquidity, with billions in cash and undrawn credit facilities ^[28]

But the message is clear: Dow no longer enjoys the balance‑sheet headroom it once did, and much of management’s plan involves tight cost control, capex discipline, and asset sales to stabilise leverage.

Lawsuits and legal overhang: what investors are alleging

In 2025 Dow has become a magnet for securities class‑action lawsuits, which are now an additional cloud over the stock.

Multiple law firms – including Rosen Law, Kessler Topaz, Levi & Korsinsky, Robbins LLP, Bronstein Gewirtz & Grossman, Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd and others – have filed or advertised class actions on behalf of investors who bought Dow shares between 30 January 2025 and 23 July 2025. ^[29]

A detailed local report from OurMidland summarises the core allegations: ^[30]

Dow and senior executives (including the CEO, CFO and COO) allegedly downplayed the impact of tariffs and weakening global conditions on its business.
The company is accused of overstating its financial resilience and misleading investors about the safety of the dividend, even as conditions deteriorated.
When Dow reported worse‑than‑expected Q2 results and cut its dividend in half on 24 July 2025, the stock fell more than 17%, wiping out close to $4 billion in market value, which plaintiffs tie to previously concealed risks.

These cases are in early stages and will likely be consolidated in federal court. There’s no way to know yet whether Dow will win, settle, or pay out meaningful damages, but the litigation is clearly part of the story now – particularly because it goes straight to management credibility and dividend policy, both central to the stock’s appeal.

Structural reshaping: European shutdowns and $6.5 billion in “cash support”

Back on the operations side, Dow is shrinking and reshaping its European footprint.

In July 2025, Dow’s board approved the shutdown of three upstream assets in Europe: ^[31]

An ethylene cracker in Böhlen, Germany
Certain CAV assets in Schkopau, Germany
A basic siloxanes plant in Barry, U.K.

The rationale: structural challenges in the region, including high energy costs, weak demand and persistent oversupply. Dow expects these actions to: ^[32]

Deliver an operating EBITDA uplift of nearly $200 million per year starting mid‑2026
Eliminate lower‑return capacity and free up capital
Cost about $500 million in cash over 2026–2029, plus associated restructuring charges
Affect roughly 800 roles, adding to the job cuts already announced

These moves are part of a broader plan to unlock more than $6.5 billion of “near‑term cash support” by 2026, through: ^[33]

$1 billion of capex cuts in 2025
$1 billion of targeted cost reductions by end‑2026
Asset sales (for example, a partial sale of infrastructure assets referenced in various IR materials)
The $1 billion annual dividend cut

From a long‑term perspective, shutting older high‑cost European assets and doubling down on low‑cost North American facilities could meaningfully improve the company’s margin profile. In the short term, though, it adds more restructuring noise onto already weak earnings.

Growth pockets: EVs, renewables and advanced materials

Despite the ugly cycle, Dow is still investing in higher‑value, trend‑aligned products.

One of the most tangible 2025 product launches is DOWSIL™ EG‑4175 Silicone Gel, designed for next‑generation high‑voltage power electronics used in: ^[34]

Electric‑vehicle batteries and inverters (including 800‑V architectures)
Photovoltaic inverters and high‑voltage solar systems
Wind‑turbine and other renewable‑energy power modules

The gel withstands temperatures up to 180°C, helps reduce power losses, absorbs vibration and even has self‑healing properties to repair micro‑cracks, according to technical write‑ups. ^[35]

This is classic “specialty materials riding structural megatrends”: EV adoption, grid electrification, renewables and higher‑voltage systems. None of this fixes the near‑term slump in packaging plastics and commodity intermediates, but it does create long‑run optionality if Dow can shift more of its portfolio toward these niche, higher‑margin uses of silicone and related chemistries.

What Wall Street is forecasting for Dow stock

Despite the gloomy headlines, most traditional analysts are not screaming “sell”. The consensus view is more like: cyclical, stressed, but not doomed – and somewhat undervalued if the cycle normalises.

Different aggregators show slight variations, but they tell a similar story:

MarketWatch (S&P Global data):
- About 24 analysts
- Average rating: Hold
- Average 12‑month target: around $26.8 per share ^[36]
MarketBeat:
- Around 22 analysts
- Average target: roughly $28.8, implying ~25–26% upside from the recent ~$23 price
- Target range: about $20 to $42 ^[37]
StockAnalysis.com:
- 15 analysts
- Consensus rating: Hold
- Average target:$27.13 (roughly 18% upside)
- Range: $22–$37 ^[38]
StocksGuide/other aggregators:
- Around 26 analysts
- Rough split: 6 Buy, 18 Hold, 2 Sell
- Average target: around $27
- High target above $45, low around $20 ^[39]

On the fundamental forecast side, StockAnalysis’ consensus numbers are telling: ^[40]

Revenue 2025: ≈ $40.4 billion, down almost 6% from 2024
Revenue 2026: ≈ $41.4 billion, implying modest 2.5% growth
EPS 2025: about –$0.97 (loss)
EPS 2026: about –$0.13 (still roughly break‑even)

So analysts generally do not expect a quick, V‑shaped profit recovery. Instead, they’re modelling a slow grind out of the trough, with cost savings and asset rationalisation fighting against weak volumes and pricing.

Independent valuation tools and quant scores: mixed picture

Simply Wall St
Simply Wall St’s model suggests Dow may be 17–18% undervalued relative to its estimated fair value around $27.8, with a note that the stock is “trading at good value compared to peers and industry.” But their risk section flags that: ^[41]

Interest payments are not well covered by earnings
The 6.1% dividend is not well covered by earnings or free cash flow
Long‑term revenue growth expectations are very low

GuruFocus
GuruFocus assigns Dow a GF Score of 61 out of 100, which they interpret as signalling poor potential for future outperformance versus the market. Their breakdown: ^[42]

Financial strength: 5/10
Profitability: 6/10
Growth: 2/10
Value: 4/10
Momentum: 2/10

They highlight:

Interest coverage of 0.55, worse than over 96% of chemical peers
Debt‑to‑EBITDA of about 6.6x, above typical comfort levels
Revenue down ~6% per year over the last three years

It’s a polite way of saying: “Cheap, but highly leveraged and in a shrinking top‑line trend.”

Smartkarma
Smartkarma’s factor scores (Value 4, Dividend 5, Growth 3, Resilience 3, Momentum 5) paint Dow as attractive on yield and valuation, but middling on structural growth and resilience. ^[43]

Technicals and AI/quant forecasts: short‑term bearish, medium‑term hopeful

The AI‑driven platform Intellectia offers a detailed technical and price‑forecast view as of 7 December 2025: ^[44]

Last close: $22.96 on 5 December, with roughly 3.3% intraday trading range
Near‑term AI forecast:
- 1‑day predicted price: $22.67 (–1.3%)
- 1‑week: $22.85 (slight dip)
- 1‑month: $21.39 (about –6.8%)

Despite that, its longer‑term model projects:

2026 average price: about $32.43 (~+41% vs recent levels)
2030 forecast: around $29.16 (~+27% vs current)

And yet, based on moving averages and recent trend, Intellectia still labels DOW a “Strong Sell candidate” in the near term, noting: ^[45]

The SMA‑20 is below the SMA‑60, indicating a strong bearish mid‑term trend
Technical resistance around $25–$26, and support in the $19–$21 zone
A short‑sale ratio around 12.7% (as of 5 December), with signs of some short covering

So the quant view is roughly: “Short‑term down or sideways; reasonable chance of recovery by 2026 if the cycle turns.”

Fundamental bull vs. bear narratives in December 2025

Bullish arguments (value + optionality)

Recent bullish (or at least constructive) analyses – including a “Bull Case Theory” from Quipus Capital on InsiderMonkey and some earlier Seeking Alpha upgrades – tend to emphasise: ^[46]

Dow is a global leader in key commodity chemicals (polyethylene, ethylene oxide, silicones), with a 75%+ asset base in North America where it enjoys structurally lower energy and feedstock costs.
The business is highly cyclical, so earnings look terrible at the bottom but can bounce sharply when volumes and prices turn.
At a depressed earnings point, Dow trades at single‑digit multiples of mid‑cycle earnings in many scenario analyses.
New U.S. Gulf Coast assets and investments like DOWSIL EG‑4175 give Dow exposure to growth markets (EVs, renewables, advanced electronics).
The dividend, even after the cut, still offers a 6%+ yield for patient investors willing to ride the cycle.

Some bulls see a scenario in which Dow returns to $4+ billion in EBIT and $2.5–3 billion in net income at mid‑cycle, implying very low teens or even single‑digit earnings multiples at today’s price. ^[47]

Bearish arguments (value trap + leverage)

Skeptical takes – such as GuruFocus’ cautionary piece, several downgrades following the dividend cut, and a recent article arguing it’s “better to bet on the sector than the company” – focus on: ^[48]

Weak growth and shrinking revenues, even before this latest downturn
High leverage and poor interest coverage, creating risk if the downturn lasts longer than expected
Decarbonisation and regulatory pressure that may structurally squeeze margins for carbon‑intensive commodity chemicals
Massive capex commitments like Path2Zero at a time of negative free cash flow
The legal overhang, with lawsuits specifically attacking management credibility on tariffs and dividend safety
The fact that many peers are also cheap, making it possible to play the “chemicals cycle” via stronger balance sheets or more specialty‑leaning names

The GuruFocus GF Score of 61/100 and low growth/momentum ranks encapsulate that bear worry: this could stay a value trap for years, even if the headline yield looks tempting.

Key catalysts to watch into 2026

If you’re tracking Dow Chemical stock from here, several milestones matter:

Q4 2025 earnings – expected 29 January 2026
Quartr and MarketBeat show Dow’s next earnings date as late January. Investors will watch for: ^[49]
- Confirmation of the $725 million EBITDA and $9.4 billion sales guidance
- Any revision to 2026 capex plans
- Updated commentary on European shutdown savings and the Alberta Path2Zero timeline
Progress on the $6.5 billion cash‑support and cost program
Markets will want evidence that the company is actually hitting cost and capex‑reduction targets, not just promising them.
Legal developments
Motions to dismiss or early settlements in the various securities suits could either defuse the legal risk or reveal more troubling internal communications. ^[50]
Credit metrics and rating‑agency outlooks
Stabilising leverage and improving free cash flow could prompt rating‑agency outlooks to move from negative to stable, while any further deterioration might risk another downgrade. ^[51]
Macro and chemical‑cycle data
- Global ethylene operating rates
- Pricing trends in polyethylene, intermediates and silicones
- Demand signals from packaging, construction, auto and electronics
These will determine whether Dow’s current pain is a late‑cycle bottom or just mid‑way down the staircase.

Bottom line: Dow Chemical stock today

As of 7 December 2025, Dow Chemical stock sits in a high‑uncertainty zone:

Price: beaten down, trading near multi‑year lows and well below historical highs
Yield: still high, at roughly 6%, but supported by loss‑making earnings and heavy capex
Balance sheet: stretched but not broken, with mid‑BBB / Baa2 ratings, tight interest coverage and a lot riding on cost cuts and asset optimisation
Analyst view: largely Hold, with moderate upside in 12‑month price targets but no consensus on a rapid rebound
Quant/technical view:short‑term bearish, but with several models projecting meaningful upside by 2026 if the cycle turns
Strategic direction: shrinking weaker European assets and investing in higher‑value materials for EVs and renewable‑energy systems

For income‑focused or deep‑value investors, DOW is basically a live experiment in cyclical recovery vs. balance‑sheet strain:

If global demand improves, European rationalisation delivers the promised $200 million+ uplift, Path2Zero doesn’t blow up the capex budget, and lawsuits fade into the background, today’s price could well look opportunistic a few years from now.
If the downturn lasts longer, decarbonisation and overcapacity keep margins thin, and management is forced into further cuts or capital raises, the stock could remain a classic value trap, with that 6% yield functioning more as hazard pay than as a safe paycheck.